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Of course, Endeavor co-founding partner Ari Emanuel couldn’t keep quiet about the looming writers strike. But while most of the top agencies sound determined to stick by their WGA members’ side, Ari throws them under the bus. Not to mention quotes from AMPTP’s playbook. (And here I thought it was primarily CAA that was repping the studios and the networks to the detriment of its clients.) Talk about faulty facts: no one told Emanuel that this summer was the best ever in the domestic history of the movie biz. Too bad that Ari, one of the genius dealmakers of Hollywood, didn’t use his blog on The Huffington Post 
to map out a residual package that both sides could live with. But that would require focus, and Emanuel has the attention span of a gnat:
Writers’ Strike: Is Political Posturing About to Trump Good Economics?
I’m about to get myself in a lot of trouble. So be it… Listening to both sides in the looming writers’ strike, it’s clear to me that politics is about to trump sound economics. Neither the Writers Guild nor the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers is looking at the issue properly.
If you look at the amount of money that was at issue during the last writers’ strike in 1988, I bet it was less than the amount the strike ended up costing all concerned. And I believe that will be the case this time around, too.
Expecting movie studios and television networks to change with the times is not asking too much. New technologies have dramatically altered Hollywood’s economic landscape, but the AMPTP is still clinging to a revenue model that was created back in the days of Lew Wasserman and Abe Lastfogel – and was, as I understand it, adopted from the record business (you remember records, don’t you?). The movie business took the formula used for calculating record royalties and basically transferred it to the sale of videotapes (you remember videotapes, don’t you?). What’s more, the current royalty formula for DVDs factors in the cost of manufacturing (today’s electronic DVDs and web downloads, of course, cost absolutely nothing to “manufacture”). Clearly, the media world has gone through a major evolution since Lew and Abe, and it’s time for its business practices to follow suit.
On the other hand, what the representatives of the Writers Guild have to remember is that all union contract negotiations are to set minimums, and that the effect of the change in residuals from DVDs and New Media they are seeking will not rise to the level of revenue they are asking for – or what the strike is going to cost the Guild’s active members. Once again, the eventual cost of a strike will exceed the financial gain being sought.
Going on strike to lose more than you gain is not smart negotiating.
Both sides should also keep in mind that TV ratings have fallen significantly over the last few years, and the movie box office hasn’t been all that great either.
But, who knows, maybe clearer heads will prevail – and sound economics will supersede political posturing. Let’s hope so, not only for the sake of the writers, the studios, and the networks but for the millions of people in the community who will be hurt by a strike, including below-the-line workers and all those who aren’t in show business but whose livelihood is dependent on a Hollywood that is up and running.
Editor-in-Chief Nikki Finke - tip her here.
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Nice, Ari, but here’s the problem with your thinking.
Even if your math is correct, and I doubt it is, strikes can rarely be measured in simple short term dollars and sense (please spare me the spelling correction. It’s intentional). Yes, I know that’s the currency you traffic in, but it’s short sighted.
The fight is always about tomorrow. The fight is always about your brother/sister and his/her family. The fight is about principle.
That being said, this IS Hollywood so I know your eyes are starting to glaze over.
We can all add. In addition some of us feel. Deeply.
(Per Nikki’s request, I identify myself as a non-guild writer, working on assignment, and a pro script reader.)
Emanuel’s argument against the economic logic of the WGA position is that it will cost more to strike than the writers will gain. The problem with this claim, however, is that he is basing this explanation on the last strike, and only on his opinions of the last strike at that. He writes, “If you look at the amount of money that was at issue during the last writers’ strike in 1988, I bet it was less than the amount the strike ended up costing all concerned.”
“I bet?!” So the entire crux of his argument rests on his own speculation? Well, that’s a convincing argument!
Now beyond that, there could also be the argument (even if his bet is valid) that if by striking and potentially costing more than is gained, the writers lose LESS than they would have by not striking, it would also still make economic sense. Not sure if I’m being clear about that, but if the losses due to a strike were less than the shortchanging that the writers face without a new CBA, then it makes good economic sense in that case as well.
Nice try, Mr. Emanuel. But it seems your only angle here is that if there is no stoppage of work, your company can continue to make its 10%. So only the lack of a strike would make economic sense, TO YOU!
Residuals were originally designed as a deferment on salary, which you’re taking on the backend. It was a way to pay writers less up front. While we WGA members were voting on whether or not to give strike power to the guild, the AMPTP was denying existing residuals. One agent told me, “that was a negotiating tactic on their part.” To which I responded “bad tactic.” They were hoping to negotiate the status quo at a time when DVD’s are going the way of the dodo, and they don’t want to give residuals on electronic delivery. The overwhelming corporate greed of the studios, which has already walked all over writers for years, requires a stand — and now is the time to do it. And this Ari Emanuel asshole can suck my balls. Let’s not forget the mass “firings” of WGA clients from Endeavor months back. He’s not on our side — he’s on his own side.
Having worked with Ari, “attention span of a gnat” about sums it up. And gnats shouldn’t be weighing in on grown-up topics like a writers’ strike…
Everybody needs to remember that the agents are now producers, paid by the studios to work for the studios. That should really be all anybody needs to know. That, and a hyphenate should never, ever have a union position of power. That’s partly what got everybody into this mess.
TV and film need to go the way of the music industry: Independent. Technology now affords cheap production and independent distribution. The guilds need to form their own production and distribution entities and create a New Entertainment Order. It’s just sitting there, waiting for them to do it.
I’m sure agents and producers are aware of this, but entire crews have been discussing the reality that they can produce and distribute the shows they’re working on by themselves. If necessity is the mother of invention, it just might be that the AMPTP and the agents are making it necessary for TV to go indie.
Emanuel: “If you look at the amount of money that was at issue during the last writers’ strike in 1988, I bet it was less than the amount the strike ended up costing all concerned.”
Hilariously, and quantifiably, false. The writers left much MUCH more on the table under the terms of their ’88 CBA than they lost during the strike itself. The reason the writers are more entrenched this year is that they don’t want to repeat the mistakes of ’88 (sorry if that sounds like a campaign slogan).
Thanks for the support, Ari. Will be happy to leave your agency as soon as the strike is over.