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THURSDAY AM UPDATE: The line forms for the 12:01 AM Thursday showing of Indiana Jones And The Kingdom Of The Crystal Skull at the Vista Theatre in Los Feliz. And it keeps going, and going… (Photos by Jim Stevenson)
WEDNESDAY: Forget all the hype. What matters is the Memorial Day weekend box office gross for Indiana Jones And The Kingdom Of The Crystal Skull which opens at 12:01 AM Thursday in 4,260 theaters in North America and also day and date in 61 territories overseas (but not Japan). Let’s first look at domestic, where this Steven Spielberg/George Lucas tentpole is gonna be mega-hit. (Like, duh.) 
The only question is how BIG a hit. A record-breaker after 19 years in absentia? Maybe. But there’s some tough competition for that if you play the stats game of splitting hairs. (Which is why, increasingly, box office is becoming like baseball. Oh joy.)
Indy 4 debuts for a full 5-day holiday weekend, among the best of all circumstances. Which is why informed guesstimates from my box office gurus are ranging from a low of $142 million to a high of $175 million for the well-reviewed PG-13 adventure pic. I think the answer lies somewhere in-between — around $160M. Then again, that’s not taking into account how movie theaters are raising ticket prices by a dollar or two this summer because popcorn is more expensive. (According to news reports, next year’s corn stocks are expected to plunge to a 13-year low, corn-futures contracts have soared to an all-time high, and the sudden demand for ethanol will claim 40% of next year’s corn crop. Even the paper for the popcorn tubs is more expensive. So the profit margins at theaters which rely on concession sales for as much as 45% of their revenue have to make up the difference somehow.)
I’m told Paramount is noting a little weakness in the tracking among teens. But that’s more than made up, I’m also assured, by the eagerness of adults: the problem is that those older moviegoers generally wait until the 2nd or 3rd weekend to screen this kind of flick. The best 5-day opening ever was the humongous $172.8M recorded by Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge Of The Sith from 2005; then again that pic finished out the prequel trilogy. The best Memorial Day Weekend was posted last summer by Pirates Of The Caribbean: At World’s End which also completed a trilogy; its 4 1/2-day opening posted a gargantuan $153.0 million and its 5 1/2-day figure was $160.8M. Still another number to consider is what Spider-Man 3 did during its first 5 consecutive non-holiday days last May (non-holiday): $169.4M.
Globally, the record number floating around is a high-wire act of $400+ million. For Summer 2007, both Spider-Man 3 and Pirates 3 verbally sparred over which set the worldwide debut total. But Pirates 3 also opened day and date in over 100+ foreign territories, way more than Indy 4. Do any of these records really matter when Paramount is having such a great start to its summer what with blockbuster Iron Man already passing $200M? Why, of course — for bragging rights. And Paramount insiders are telling me they feel it in their bones that Indy 4 can break some records “because the world loves this guy and this franchise”. But nothing can or should diminish the welcome comeback of this modern classic.
Editor-in-Chief Nikki Finke - tip her here.
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From what I’ve seen, nobody under 25 is dying to see this movie as it’s a little behind our times. Many will end up seeing it I’m sure but I’m just not sensing any urgency to do so.
It may beat Iron Man but I still predict Dark Knight has the best numbers of the year (domestically, atleast).
College Student,
I’m more excited for TDN than any other movie this summer, but you’ve got to be kidding about its boxoffice.
It’ll do quite nicely but its extreme masculine flavor and hard-edged violence (as well as a rumored length of at least 2.5 hours) will prevent it from grossing more than $225 million tops. While it’s true that the anticipation is higher with the success of Batman Begins 3 years ago, Nolan & Co. (thank goodness I say, as a fan!) have gone way dark with this sequel and I think the price will be paid in dollars, at least in America.
American masses are much more about escapism this year (hence the huge Iron Man numbers) and Batman shows us more of the urban American world as it is, not from the more fabulist perspective of other blockbuster movies with wider appeal.
Doesn’t change my eagerness to see it, though!
Ummmm Was that RDJ on American Idol? Wow! Just wow….
Big 1st weekend.
+65% drop 2d weekend.
U both are are wrong!! i know tons of people under 25 that are dieing to see Indy4!! Breaking Siths 5 day may fall a little short but i think phantom mentces total might be attainable, this is going to have incredible legs!! And on the Dark knight note, they have know worries about there numbers, even as dark as it is looking, the curiousity around Heath Ledgers death(and in my opinion) the oscar nomination that is inevietable if Heath Ledgers preformance is as good as there are saying Dark Knight is going to come in third for the year behind Indy 4, and Hancock!
Dear lord! How many years has it been since Last Crusade?
Cuz I went to that!
old men making movies with old men
old men making movies with middle aged men
old men making movies with boys
big yawn.
women, don’t support this crap.
direct your dollars away from film/tv, make your voice heard for interesting film/tv with interesting female leads
Just left ONE of the 12:30am shows at Arclight. It was sold out and more than half the crowd was under 25.
First, welcome back Nikki. The world sure seems like a better place with you around:-)
Now, let’s track the last few movies of the same genre, ‘action, adventure, mystery, swash-buckling hero’.
NT 1 & 2 had good BO performance
Mummy 1 & 2, same as well
Lara Croft 1 & 2, so-so only
DaVinci – superb returns all in all
Well, this genre has always been able to command good returns in the BO with audiences enjoying the ‘bazooka’ plot.
Now with Indiana, it has a lot going for it. The long wait, a hero everyone loves and 3 movies that practically cemented its place in cinema history.
So it will be huge, it will be in demand and best of all it serves all ages. For it doesn’t have superhero, epic battle, wizardry, no Will Ferrell. What it has is just a story and a hero that everyone will want to remember the next day and to reminisce of.
Numbers: Very huge. I give it 2 -50M, 1-40M and 1-30M day and 90% shot of beating ‘Lambada-Dancing Stupid’ Spidey 3 record of biggest 3-day opening.
Don Simpson’s ghost is correct. There will be a huge opening weekend, as fanboys try to recapture their lost childhood.
The second weekend will see a colossal drop, as people realize that Uncle George has been molesting their childhood for 20 years.
All I have to say is that too much is put into the predictions of analysts and so called “experts,” whose research and analysis can easily be tainted by many personal and corporate agendas that it makes astrology look scientific. And it’s not just in the movie biz, a guy once put a chimp against Wall Street analysts in picking stocks, and the chimp beat them hands down.
Plus, it annoys me when these analysts brand a film a box-office failure when it fall $1 short of their precious estimates even though there are line-ups down the street. You just know that there’s some accounting skullduggery at work when that happens.
That’s my rant on the subject.
Good to have you back Nikki, keep well.
As much as I would love to see The Dark Knight shatter every box office record in the book and allow Batman to reclaim his title as box office king, I can’t see it happening.
The best case scenario is that it performs like The Bourne Supremacy. Like Dark Knight, that was a sequel to an adult film that was a solid hit in theaters, but it didn’t open huge because people didn’t expect it to be as good as it was. Additionally, Bourne rode its wave of good word of mouth to be a monster on DVD. Thus, we had a critically acclaimed sequel to a movie that critics and audiences all really liked, but didn’t all discover at once.
For the sequel we had everyone who liked the first one going all at once to see the sequel over the opening weekend. Thus you had an almost doubling of the opening weekend from $29 million to $52 million (a 1.7x increase). If The Dark Knight follows a similar pattern, as it has thus far, we could see a near doubling of its opening weekend, which would amount to about $86 million over three days. Plus the morbid curiosity factor and the geek factor could theoretically put it over $100 million. But it won’t happen like that. There is one huge strike against it even coming close to that comparison or any other records of note: kids.
Ironically, considering the release and fall out of Batman Returns (I know, I seem to bring that up every season for one reason or another), the very marketing campaign that is building such buzz for The Dark Knight is the very thing that will prevent it from reaching any record heights.
First of all, a quick digression, the ad campaign is built around fans of the mythology as opposed to casual observers. No one in either trailer ever calls The Joker by his nickname. And nowhere are we told just who Harvey Dent is, like the fact that is he the new district attorney. So far, the two trailers feel like inside baseball. But that’s a minor issue (easily rectified in June) compared to the big problem.
The entire ad campaign (trailers and posters) is basically daring parents to bring children. It’s all about darkness, fear, despair, failure, and mass death. For reasons right or wrong, parents felt comfortable bringing their kids to Pirates 2 or Iron Man. I can’t imagine most parents of a seven or eight year old not thinking twice before bringing their son or daughter to watch a most terrifying Joker as he blows up hospitals, slaughters police officers, drops women out of windows, and basically does his best to give your kids nightmares (and that’s just what the trailers reveal).
It’s the Achilles heel that will prevent The Dark Knight from opening as high as Iron Man or Indiana Jones 4. Heck, even The Incredible Hulk looks more colorful and less frightening. R-rating not withstanding, The Matrix Reloaded was basically sold as harmless sci-fi kung-fu. From a protective parent’s viewpoint, I’d imagine The Dark Knight basically looks like a horror film that happens to feature well known comic book characters.
And that may be a great thing for adults and action fans and geeks. And as a hardcore Batman fan, there’s an outside shot that it could be my new favorite movie ever. But in order to set records, you need to at least trick families into thinking that your movie is appropriate. The marketeers have spent the last several months doing just the opposite. And it will most certainly cost them a shot at the title. But, gosh, I’d love to be proven wrong.
Scott Mendelson
I think it will exceed the $175M high estimate. It’s still the biggest movie of the summer, despite Dark Knight – which will do very well, don’t get me wrong – but not as well as Indy. Iron Man was like an oasis in the desert of boring crap. It’s exactly what a summer blockbuster should be in every way. Now add Steven Spielberg back to his earlier roots, Mr. Lebeouf and the nostalgia factor from everyone who’s ever loved the Indiana Jones trilogy and that should make for bonanza box office.
Looking at the $180-185M mark, maybe even higher. What do people do when times are tough? Go to the movies and indulge in some good old-fashioned escapism. If they want to see a movie, an extra dollar or so won’t stop them. I’ll definitely be seeing the movie this weekend.
For what it’s worth — i just saw it in midtown manhattan – 11am eastern show – huge theater in times square – less than 30 people in the theater. Yes, it’s a weekday, early show, but i was expecting (hoping as a huge fan) for a crowd…i still think it will do monster numbers but….
I saw a 12:01 AM Thursday screening at a suburban cineplex outside Boston. The theater chain had reserved three auditoriums but filled just two. A portent? Who knows? The audience was almost all college age and under. Just before the movie started, many broke into a spontaneous sing-along of the “Indiana Jones” theme song. The Lucasfilm logo got huge applause (a la Cannes) and the movie generated heavy applause as the credits rolled. I, for one, loved it and expect it to do huge box office, in the $280 million range. I generally don’t favor repeats, but I will see Indy 4 again on the big screen, even at 10 bucks a pop.
Anybody think HF looks like Ethan Hawke’s Dad on that one-sheet? Anybody???
Welcome back, Nikki! I hope you are feeling much better.
Just to be a radical I will put my money on a $135 million opening for Indy 4 and a 50% drop off the 2nd weekend. I think the under 25 crowd sees this stuff on a daily basis on their computers and even their I-phones, no less, whereas around the time of Indy 1-3, nearly 20 years ago, they had to go to movies to see it. Older fans may have nostalgia, but nostalgia is a dying impulse, especially in a weak economy, unless Lucas and co. have really done something to reinvigorate the franchise. I haven’t heard that that is the case.
I agree with some others that TDK looks like it may be too dark, though there will be a strong turnout to see Heath Ledger.
I really liked Robert Downey Jr. in Iron Man and I think that he is responsible for a lot of the repeat business. I don’t see much repeat business for Indy 4 and that is the heart of a blockbuster.
That said, I think my numbers may be too low for the opening, but I predict that the numbers over the next month will disappoint.
The holiday box office may be big, but not as big as it could’ve/should’ve been because word of mouth is going to RUIN this movie’s true blockbuster potential.
I attended a midnight showing at the ArcLight and the biggest applause came when various visual lip service was paid to the classic movies. The crowd was decidedly older than other midnight showings I’ve been to (i.e. Iron Man, Harry Potter films, Spider-Man, Pirates…)
The film itself was so bad that I wasn’t at all shocked at the piddling applause when the credits rolled. And this was a crowd that should’ve been giving a standing ovation (I mean, there were people in Indiana costumes, complete with fedoras).
FWIW, I caught a midnight showing in the fine city of Ontario, California. My theater was about 95% full. Average age – late teens to early 20s. I figure a lot of kids will be yawning through math today. Lots of brown fedoras. A few did the whole Indie outfit. Security confiscated at least three beach balls in the hour before previews rolled. The movie played well with my audience.
Yawn, boring, rut and Wanna-Writer-Be seem a little too negative for this thread compared with the rest. Could it be the folks accused of being shills on the possible SAG strike topics are on this thread too. They probably work for Universal or Fox.
I haven’t seen it yet, but Indy 4 is what we consider “sitter worthy” i.e. worth hiring a babysitter to go see. All this fan girl wants to see is something that is at least as good as “Temple of Doom.” No chick flick with “interesting” (read pathetic head case or courageous long suffering victim)female character is ever going to be “sitter worthy” in this family. If we’re going to drop a lot of coin on going out to a dinner and a movie these days, this Mom wants to see things getting blown up and have some pure escapist fun.
The Vista theatre needs to steam-clean their seats. That place reeks of ass.