
So why are advertisers rushing to show commercials on the 4th place TV network? Beats me, because insiders tell me that, any day now, NBC will be crowing how it’s nearly completed sales for this year’s upfront. I’ve been slipped some latest numbers – $1.9 billion, up from last year (by about $100 million) in a down market. Everyone knows that, last year to avoid a huge humiliation, NBC kept back inventory for the later scatter market. So it’s indeed a surprise that the network was able to sell so much inventory in the early marketplace considering its lousy schedule and the worsening economy. The average CPM increase is 6%. These figures include football, but not the Olympics or Superbowl. For those, the Olympics are about 80% sold and “pacing right on track” and there’s supposed to be strong demand from advertisers for this year’s Superbowl. (Let’s hope the ads are better than the lame-ass ones last time…) Back to network numbers, I’m told that, generally, all dayparts (network, prime, latenight, etc.) are flat to up. Since the overall market is down about 3%-4% and NBC is up about 5%-6%,
I understand that NBC Universal boss Jeff Zucker is interpreting this as “a vote of confidence” in the network schedule and “real proof” that his decision is paying off to save money by forgoing a formal pilot season and full-frills upfront presentation and instead replacing it with a so-called “In Front stategy” whereby scripts and pitches were ordered straight to series for a new year-round schedule rounded out by cheap reality and game shows. So I’m sorry to be the bearer of bad news to all you TV agents and showrunners and writers and actors and producers hoping this was just a strike-induced passing phase – but, for the forseeable future, a normal pilot season at NBC looks dead in the water. Of course, NBC’s fall schedule is expected to tank yet again. But that’s probably when NBC will start funding low-budget New Media projects as backdoor pilots to test ideas on the Internet before going to series, thus finding a cheap way around the new guild contracts. (Long sigh…) As to other networks, upfront ad sales are looking up 9%-10% for Fox, 8%-10% for ABC and 7%-8% for CBS. Meanwhile, I hear all NBC Universal properties expect to reach $4.1B-$4.2B (compared to $4B last year).
Editor-in-Chief Nikki Finke - tip her here.







“just a guy — June 6, 2008 @ 2:03 am – South Park nailed it?!?! All that episode did was make it seem like writers want to make money off you tube. And attacking the WGA leadership is ridiculous. Because the bottom line is, if we could get more concessions by striking 6 more months, most people still wouldnt strike.”
You’re clearly not a writer or a WGA member to miss completely what was communicated in that “South Park” episode, and your comments about HULU are ridiculous. There is no such thing as “groundwork for future deals.” Ask actual WGA members about the “groundwork” for their home video residual that will forever remain the same.
For the public, South Park never fails to encapsulate the overall theme in dialogue for those above which it sails high above their heads. So for “just a guy” and the similarly uninformed, here it is:
“While the Internet is new and exciting for creative people, it hasn’t matured as a distribution mechanism to the extent that one should trade real and immediate opportunities for income for the promise of future online revenue. It will be a few years before digital distribution of media on the Internet can be monetized to an extent that necessitates content producers to forgo their fair value in more traditional media.”
Well said, Trey and Matt.
The WGA lost their strike. They also lost the ability to strike until 2030 or so. By then, many will have forgotten that they are 0 for 3 in strikes, so they will go 0 for 4. They will also have forgotten the mistakes that were made (e.g., “interim agreements” that mean absolutely nothing and have only served to weaken the WGA’s resolve in the last two strikes) and repeat them. Then. they will strike in 2050 and continue their 20-year cycle of failure.
Or perhaps they will elect leaders and hire staff that know what they are doing.
Doubt it.
Why break with tradition?
AMPTP members continue to school the guilds. It’s jerk behavior, but it’s impressive that AMPTP members always come out better from a strike than the guild that authorized it.
“While the Internet is new and exciting for creative people, it hasn’t matured as a distribution mechanism to the extent that one should trade real and immediate opportunities for income for the promise of future online revenue. It will be a few years before digital distribution of media on the Internet can be monetized to an extent that necessitates content producers to forgo their fair value in more traditional media.”
The justifiable fear was that if writers/actors/directors weren’t made part of the business model of the new distribution model (as an expensive but necessary cost) that is being created right now and will be perfected in the next few years, they would forever be locked out. So while it was painful for those who have hit shows on the air at the moment to take a hit, it helped guarantee that those who come after them will still be able to make a career of it.
You would think Matt and Trey could see beyond themselves and their egos but they could not (and by the way the size of their egos has nothing to do with how consistently funny the show is– which it is.)
The article in the Reporter today mentioned that NBC announced a 65-week schedule – that’s a full quarter added onto the 52-week schedule. If NBC is selling 25% more ad space with an increase in sales of only about 5% (.1/1.9 billion) then there is some serious spin happening. Can anyone enlighten me if this is the situation?
Whoever had those true numbers thanks for publishing them.
Here is what I took from that South Park episode in question:
The WGA leadership (Canada) were shepherding the mindless people of Canada. The boys were only involved because Kyle’s brother Ike is from Canada. The main thing Canada wanted was respect and money from the Internet and this drove the boys to create a video to post on You Tube and try to collect the money. In the end, all Canada and the leadership got was just some crap, very little money, and no respect. From what I seen, the episode saw Canada was the WGA and they struck for nothing where, in reality, that just isn’t true. Thank God that they didn’t have Cartman convince Terrence and Phillip to go fi-core and lead to other Canadians to do the same (at least on the celebrity side with Paul Shaffer, Celine Dion, and Ellen Page among those going fi-core.
@Comment by Harold — June 6, 2008 @ 10:08 am
double bingo. both comments you’ve made are spot on.
@Comment by George Glass — June 6, 2008 @ 10:56 am
false. to suggest they would have been locked out forever is ridiculous. Writers and actors used to get nothing for home video or cable now they both get something (and actors actually clean up on that stuff–(I know I see the checks come in everyday)
Especially considering the short length of the contract. The amount of money lost to lost work (especially below the liners and office assistants, many of whom are still looking for work, who will get NOTHING back from new media EVER) will exceed the amount gained for the entire length of the contract. It really was a poorly run and lead strike. The AMPTP showed the difference in negotiating skill. (which I guess is the reason why they are put in charge of the billion dollar companies)
NBC sold well because their demo has been skewing MUCH younger with = MONEY. Also, if you would have read any of the shows they do have coming down the pipe they are actually pretty f’n good.
I still think the cable series are better (even on FX) but NBC has good scripts to work with.
Now whether they make them as well as they were written we’ll seen…