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SUNDAY AM: While No. 1 The Incredible Hulk and 
No. 3 The Happening had better-than-expected debuts overall, they experienced fall-offs from Friday to Saturday: -15% and -21% respectively. The Green Guy, self-financed by Marvel and distributed by Universal, made $21.7 million Friday and $18.4M Saturday for a $54.5 million weekend (vs $62M for the first Hulk). Though The Incredible Hulk is Marvel's 2nd best-known character, the reboot is only the 5th biggest pic for a top Marvel character in a non-sequel opening. Exit polling gave The Incredible Hulk a Cinemascore of A- with male making up 60% of the audince and females 40%; 48% under age 25%; 25 yrs and older 52%; an ethnically diverse audience of slightly less than half Caucasian (46%), followed by Hispanic (28%), African American (13%), Asian (7%), and other(6%). But most interesting of all tThe vast majority of the audience (82%) had seen the 2003 movie. M Night Shyamalan's The Happening from 20th Century Fox started out No. 2 Friday but fell to No. 3 behind DreamWorks Animation / Paramount's Kung Fu Panda. Yet Shyamalan's first R-rated horror thriller still managed a substantial $30.5M weekend from 2,986 venues with $13M Friday and $10.2M Saturday. It earned only a Cinemascore of "D".
For my complete numbers and analysis, see here.
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Surprised ‘Happening’ had such a take – heard it’s a complete disaster. Wonder if word of mouth will kill it.
Nikki you do a great job getting these numbers up early and your analysis is usually right, but The Happening and Hulk dropping off Fri to Sat is not really a sign of poor word of mouth. Genre films, comic book movies and horror movies, tend to have big opening days due to fanbase and then fall off on Sat and Sun, regardless of quality. Occasionally you will get a 4 quadrant movie like a Spiderman that will hold up more consistently. But these 2-3 quadrant movies are expected to have a bit of falloff. The word of mouth will be applicable next weekend and most significantly 2 weeks from now. The whole kiddie texting/telling their friends not to see a movie from Fri to Sat is BS, doesn’t happen. And both these movies outperformed this weekend and will likely at least make their money back, even if WOM is not great.
Jim is on the money here.
Hulk was a ton of fun, been getting good buzz. Kids aren’t going to call/text random friends about not going to see a film – the friends they’d do that with, they will go to the movie together!
“Genre films, comic book movies and horror movies, tend to have big opening days due to fanbase and then fall off on Sat and Sun, regardless of quality”.
Unless it’s Iron Man…
Not surprising actually to see the Sat’s take decreasing after the surprising Friday’s B.O.
I guess it is the case of curiousity more than anything else. Sat’s take shows the word of mouth is not good, must be then.
I predict Hulk to have a final gross of 120-140M whereas Happening to gross no more than 70M by the end of its run,
Being humble pays and Night needs to learn this. Stop producing the same old movies and please….no more cameos. It hurts to watch you on screen and the movie loses it’s charm knowing it is all a make-believed.
5th or 6th for a non sequel opening…but Incredible Hulk IS technically a sequel, even though it has a new cast…so it shouldn’t even get that comparison. When you include Marvel sequels, it’s that much further down.
Despite the second day drops, “The Incredible Hulk” will finish the weekend as estimated while “The Happening will finish 50% above its estimate.
Next weekend, it’s 60+% drops for both of them, but I will happy to be wrong.
I love how “genre film” fans always inform pop in to inform how different their films are and can’t be compared to “regular” films..
But who knows. Sex and the City had the Saturday drop too… so it’s a genre film as well.
But Hulk making 160 million is crazy.
When I read the script a few months ago, I knew this was just another “empty suit” movie from M. Night. However, it wasn’t until I heard that it is also a thinly veiled attempted to praise Intelligent Design, there was NO WAY IN HELL, I was going to see this. But really, I think everyone began to read the reviews which were so-so at best. And with his M. Night’s track record,anything less than full-throated raves from critics will doom all of his films.
I would go see the Happening anyway and the new Incredible Hulk. I don’t think word of mouth didn’t kill it but the fact it was rated R. That could turn some audiences off real quick. But anyway all of shamalyan’s films are interesting. But no3 isn’t bad nor good spot. But it’s up against some real strong competiion this summer.
“Being humble pays and Night needs to learn this. Stop producing the same old movies. . . .”
Considering that (a) the movie business is full of overblown egos and that (b) M. Night is almost the only one not making endless bad remakes or endless sequels or endless superhero series or some combination thereof, that’s the most hilarious thing I’ve heard all weekend.
I respectfully disagree with Jim on the bad word-of-mouth issue. I think it HAS hurt The Happening because the film is being rated SO poorly. Correct me if I’m wrong but I think “Speed Racer” got better reviews and word-of-mouth. People are watching their money because of the current recession — yes, even younger people. Part of the reason “Iron Man” has done so well is because text messages went out across the country praising the film and Downey JRs. performance. In contrast, The Happening isn’t happening so the people who are on the fence or waiting for the DVD aren’t getting messages to go see it this weekend and there’s a drop-off. (If I were in a studio’s marketing department, I would develop ways to encourage text messages of positive reviews: providing a textable Iron Man icon that allows the texter the ability to say “Go see this movie!” for example.) And one thing I will say is that I think Marvel made a mistake releasing The Hulk so close on the heels of Iron Man: it automatically invites comaparison and people love Iron Man. They did Hulk a disservice because no one’s reviewing the movie or talking about it without mentioning the previous hit. Or Robert Downey Jr. I know they are trying to tie all these films together and interweave storylines the same way they do in the comic books — and THAT is a really, really smart move. However, it is going to take a few summers for audiences to get used to and understand that kind of storytelling. Eventually, it could get to the point where Marvel is able to dominate every month of the summer by releasing a series of blockbusters that interweave and connect to tell one big story from the perspective of their various heroes. Trust me, movie-goers are salivating for that kind of serialization. But it’s going to take more groundwork for that to take. They’ve been attempting to sell The Hulk by saying “If you love Iron Man, go see The Hulk!” But in order for their Marvel Universe to truly be a “universe”, each character must be viewed in its own right. That way, when they finally do come together in an interweaving, serialized storyline, the team-ups and smack downs actually have meaning and much more dramatic resonance.
Just watched The Happening and it really should have been called Not Much Happening. Word of mouth will kill this movie. 70 Mil? Jesus I hope not.
Family/kids movies in general (like Kung Fu Panda) tend to do better on Sat. & Sun. than on Friday. As a parent myself I can understand why.
I liked The Happening. It oozed old school b-movie pulp right down to the sketchy performances and weird shifting of tone. Yes it had problems but I feel like peoples perceptions of movies has become way to black and white. This is a grey area movie to it’s core and since it isn’t perceived as a home run or delivering the goods (whatever that may be at this time) it’s being denounced as a failure. If it has been made in 73 it’d be a minor cult classic by now. I think The Happening will find it’s admittedly small audience over time.
Am I the only one who doesn’t care to see either of these movies?
The only ones I am looking forward to when they come out on DVD so far are Iron Man, Indiana Jones and Kung Fu Panda…
The rest of the movies look boring or stupid. I haven’t gone to the movies since the last Harry Potter. Why because nothing catches my interest.
Milo:
Wait… isn’t Incredible Hulk technically NOT a sequel. They retell the origin story and nothing carries over from the 2003 film. As far as I can tell it’s a remake at most.
Comment by Harold — June 15, 2008 @ 8:23 am
Gotta give it to ya! I hate to say this but may be right. 60% sophomore drop is in for these 2 titles. The ‘Not So’ Happening is a shoo-in for 1st place big drop-off.
Comment by Reader — June 15, 2008 @ 11:44 am
You are not getting the message here. I am ref to 1 person, Night himself not the studios. We’re talking a director who writes, directs the same old stuffs for all his movies. Tell me the differences bte 6th Sense and this current ‘not -so Happening’ one? I rest my case!!
Comment by chuck — June 15, 2008 @ 9:42 am
I have to agree with ‘A different Ben’ on his comment. It doesn’t matter if the movie is R or PG rating. If the movie is good, people will watch it. See the top 20 movies of all time, there are a couple R-rated ones in them. What matters is good quality, fun, engaging movie and you will get your audiences. If you do a ‘Shyamalan’ then you are doom from the start.
I just hope we all learn from this. Make a movie for the audience and not for yourself. Your ‘made-up’ children’s bed-time story is for your children, not for other people’s children. Stop recyling the same old story, twist-ending.
I was at the Sunday 1pm showing of The Happening at Lincoln Square in NYC today, it was jam-packed.
Kind of creepy seeing all that stuff in Central Park while watching only a couple of blocks away.
Saw The Hulk today – wasn’t impressed. Not a meaty story. The action was good – and it is amazing what they can make happen on a screen these days – but the story was lackluster at best – just NOT interesting. Maybe I am just getting older – I dont know (am only in my 30’s), but neither of my two kids seemed that impressed with it either. Norton was “alright”, Tyler was ok, it was all just ok – but honestly – I will forget about it sooner than later – it just wasn’t that inspiring.
I saw Hulk today, w/ Hubby and 13 yr old daughter, and we all really liked it. Lets just pretend that first Hulk movie didn’t happen, ‘kay? This 2008 version took that bad taste left by the 2003 dreck out of my mouth.
Edward Norton did a really nice job with portraying depth to Dr Banner without a whole lot of dialog. Tim Roth was pretty creepy and William Hurt and Liv Tyler were both good. The effects for the Hulk were very good, I thought. Lot’s of stuff got blown up real good. Little bit of character, lot’s of explosions — can’t ask for much more out of a summer movie.
Panda did more business than Happening but it also had more theaters. If you apply Happening’s average to Panda’s theater count, you get a $42 million weekend for an easy #2, FWIW.
I’d also note this that I ran across about a minute ago on THR:
Overcoming mixed overseas reviews and the European soccer championships, “The Happening” edged “The Incredible Hulk” as the weekend’s No. 1 title internationally, grossing an estimated $32 million from 5,714 screens in 88 markets.
I can only go by the trailer, but CGIs like those in The Hulk look ridiculous amongst live action. Films that are made up totally of CGIs are another story.
But with the designated CGI charavters, I cannot fathom how that looks good to people. Perhaps for those who play a lot of video games, it looks OK.
However, I cannot speak about how others perceive things. For example, I cannot tell an Ashlee Simpson fan that Simpson does not have talent.
RE: HULK
Two strikes and he’s out. All the spinning in the world doesn’t change the fact it opened south of the Ang Lee version (and knock off a few more percentage points due to ticket price inflation.) Can’t build a franchise on that. Didn’t hear any sequel talk from the studio after these soft numbers. Prediction: next weekend B.O.: 21.5 million — even without new action pic competition. And in a few weeks, The Hulk is going to struggle to cross the 100 million mark.
ckn8, I assume you haven’t seen the movie. They don’t tell the origin story again, instead they pick up exactly where the first left off, with Banner in hiding in South America. Sure, they recast, but with the plot continuing and not repeating anything, that would be a sequel.
Coverage for this weekend has been really odd and schizophrenic. Lots of describing the weekend as “incredible”, although it seems like writers can’t resist using the pun even though it’s not really appropriate.
Normally, a Marvel opening, sequel or not, would have pretty high expectations. But since the first Hulk fared poorly, expectations are low, and it beat low expectations. But there was a big Saturday drop. But…
For a movie that cost $150, and for a sequel and a movie based on a character considerably more well known than Iron Man, I don’t think $54M is all that great. Sure, it could have been much worse considering all the hate for the first Hulk…but beating a low expectation doesn’t make it particularly great.
Everyone expected this one to fail, and people are pleased that the opening was OK instead of terrible…but the real question is why did Marvel make this movie in the first place? Why take on such an uphill battle?
This one seems to have a shot at better legs than the first, with the cinemascore of A minus. But good enough to make enough to cover the $150M production budget with the opening weekend making a third of that? I doubt it. Maybe it will break even, international should help.
And what’s up with Narnia? With the second only making $132 so far with little ahead of it, and costing $200M, is Disney really going to go ahead with the next installment? Or do it but severely cut the budget? It seems like they had some huge potential there but by making a slow, bloated pic when a taught 90 minutes would have filled the bill, it looks like they may have killed a potential golden goose. It still has quite a few countries to open in, but so far the international numbers aren’t spectacular – I guess that may be the deciding factor in Disney’s decision. They may keep make them knowing they won’t break even domestically, but will make some profit overseas.
The Hulk was fine, despite Liv Tyler’s attempts to drag it down.
If you think Big Picture, like Marvel Studios is clearly doing in terms of the brand and franchises, as long as Hulk doesn’t tank (which it won’t) he’s set up for an appearance/membership in The Avengers, of which they still have 3 more film to do before that one: Thor, Cap America and IM2.
So…the Hulk might not carry another film, but he’ll be back no doubt.
When I saw M. Night Shyamalan’s Sixth Sense I thought he was the new Stanley Kubrick, imagine that. Then a good friend of mine showed me Jacob’s Ladder. Fortunately I was not in journalism at the time, just a movie buff.
Later came Unbreakable. Suffice to say it was my last experience with a movie of Mr Shyamalan.
Talking about The Incredible Hulk an anecdote. When my niece was a small kid she saw a poster of the previous version and said to me: “Oh, It’s Shrek”.
whats with going after Caspian, Narnia 2, all of a sudden, when this is a thread about Hulk & Happening??? Cut the crap.
the movie is a great movie and will get sales figures that most movies only dream of.
the fault, which was admitted by Disney was its release date. It should have been released around the holiday season not in the middle of several other new & old blockbuster franchises, all of them competeing for the same market as Narnia. but that doesnt mean it was “bloated” and “slow”. WTrF are people talking about??@!!!!. Screw those comments from people who didnt even see the flick. The movie was great and seemed shorter han most 90 minute movies because of a great plot, with NO FILLER. every scene was key, and very well done.
…all the folks i know who saw it loved it. and yes, it has MAJOR OVERSEAS markets that havent opened yet. Oh and what are those markets btw?? Only the rest of the ENGLISH-SPEAKING WORLD where these stories are immensely popular were first experienced. I figure when all is said and done we are looking at $400-$500M, maybe even a wee bit higher, but nt much.
..pissed as hell when folks take cheap shots, filled with EXAGGERATIONS & inaccuracies….if nt lies, but i will give the benefit of the doubt that these folks are simply IGNORANT.
be objective folks. I may have not been overly joyed about the new Indy 4 movie but if it breaks the $700-750M mark its in mega-hit turf, and a big congrat Speilberg, Lucas, and Ford. with movies like this that Caspian (as well as every movie) is competing with this summer, Caspian can be very proud for having made $400-500M. This summer will probably have alot more than usual $400-600M movies, but with no one breaking out near $800m-$1B mark. Simply way too much competition between popular flicks. But that doesnt mean any of the movies are shit just because they dont break the $1B mark.
cheers folks and enjoy a great season of fun & adventure.
Comment by lu-ee — June 17, 2008 @ 10:54 am
Welcome back lu-ee. Missed ya! Where have you been? Mars?
Err, let me update you on Caspian. It bombed! Yep! A forgone conclusion the movie is not going to make anywhere close to 800M like the 1st one. Sorry to disappoint you but that’s the fact.
Disney’s excuse of not releasing the movie in Europe cause of the football season is a lame one. You see Ironman, Indi4 and many other movies opening there and scored so many ‘goals’ by collecting millions of dollars. Disney knew that they would be ‘goaless’ thus now scrambling to push for more advertising. Not a wise thing to do cause them in Europe and elsewhere have read about Caspian being a stinker of a movie. (They are not stupid you know, em Europeans and Asians). Maybe Disney will get a big opening weekend overseas but get ready for the drop-off….
Disney planning the 3rd in the series to be release in 2010..haha! That is the biggest joke I have heard. But then again, Disney themselves is a joke nowadays. Riding on the wave of Pixar.
Anyways, back to your beloved Caspian. If they replace the ’silly-unable to act childrens’ with the cast fron Harry Potter, perhaps then it will be a different story. But you know, I know that is never going to happen so let me bring you fwd to 2010, Another stinker in the theathers in May for ya. Narnia the 3rd.
Ok! Now that you have read my posting, bring it on. All of your Narnia’s silly talking animaniac with British-Scottish accents that pretends to sound intelligent but we all know the truth. They sucks no matter
Now go hug your rats in your cellar
Comment by Thierry Attard — June 17, 2008 @ 10:20 am
‘Talking about The Incredible Hulk an anecdote. When my niece was a small kid she saw a poster of the previous version and said to me: “Oh, It’s Shrek”
That is the funniest thing I have ever heard about Hulk. Well, Marvel could have asked for some help from the folks in Dreamworks for the CGI. At least Shrek was with the real green-color..haha
you asked for attention armpit, and now you have it. enjoy…
name one thing i said that was wrong in my post?
did you even go to see Caspian? why bring it up in a Hulk & Happening thread?
yes armand, i read your hateful post and it is so good to know that you have now shown your true colors as the anti-christian bigoted rat I always knew you were.
why the hate for Caspian? what have i said to harm any precious film you so religiously promote? hmmm my fine feathered & foul bigot?
or do you make all your assumptions if a movie is good or not, based on sale receipts and the word of “professional critics.”
Caspian is far from being over in making $$$. Be careful what you wish for my fine rat & troll.
It seems you are scared Caspian will make more money because it hasnt even opened in those countries it is most popular in. Well get a life and get over it, and stop being a bigot just because you cant get what you want.
It is a kids movie released at the wrong time of the year. anyone with half a brain can see that. but unfortunately you have a 1/16 of a brain, so you are quite ignorant of understanding common sense.
why is it lame to wait past football season in other countries? thats like saying why didnt Ironman, Indy 4, and all the other summer movies open in February? or Sept??? hmm???? all I hear are crickets Armand…??? so what is your answer to why these movies opened in the summer instead of earlier or later in the year? they were ready to or could have planned for a Feb or Sep 08 releases, yet they didnt. well????
I smelled your wonderful anti-Disney bias as well. so you are supposed to be an objective person? dont think so mr. rat. Rats such as yourself have always been jealous of mice for their grace, elegance, and good taste in art.
I dont think I EVER spoke ill of the Potter movies (which I think are great movies as well as books), as they seem to be your favorite film in the kid/young teenager fantasy/adventure film genre.
so whats your beef? why the hate for non-Potter movies, especialy those by Disney? did you get your ass kicked by a mouse in your baby years?
were you jealous that a pro-christian flick like Narnia actually brought in almost $800M? i smell your hate and bad breath even through all the digital traffic & wires, Armand. i think you need more mouth-wash combined with anti-hate medication.
you are a bigot and a disgusting person who doesnt know anything about entertainment at all. all you care about is trying to prevent people from seeing movies you dont like and are prejudiced against. And your reasoning to not go see those movies you hate is based on lies, innuendo, and cynicism. Thats sad and sick.
enjoy being so famous armpit. you’re in such “nice” company.
so now because you want to distract people from the Hulk and the Happening you have to also thro hate and lies at Caspian.
nice life sport, and u can have it. guess your a lonely….well calling you a “person” would be a compliment and I dont want to go there.
cheers chump.
PS Armand, did i leave you with that much of a scar since the last you tried posting your lies & hate, that you wanted to “kiss” me & jumped on my post? awww you darling little boy…..
look on other links mr. troll, and you will see i post quite regularly here.
…or are just trying to cover being a “troll” and waiting for me to comment on Caspian or some other movie you hate?
hmmmm?
After Iron Man was so great, and so realistic. It is hard to watch a huge claymation Hulk and take it seriously. I mean they spent over 200 million dollars and I’ve seen better effects on Sci Fi channel films with barely a million budget. Is it that hard for someone anyone to notice that the Hulk looks like a character from the Rudolph the reindeer x-mas specials from the fifties, A green frosty the snowman who is pissed off.
Pathetic. We will truly miss Stan Winston with the amateurs that replaced him.