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SUNDAY AM: While No. 1 The Incredible Hulk and 
No. 3 The Happening had better-than-expected debuts overall, they experienced fall-offs from Friday to Saturday: -15% and -21% respectively. The Green Guy, self-financed by Marvel and distributed by Universal, made $21.7 million Friday and $18.4M Saturday for a $54.5 million weekend (vs $62M for the first Hulk). Though The Incredible Hulk is Marvel’s 2nd best-known character, the reboot is only the 5th biggest pic for a top Marvel character in a non-sequel opening. Exit polling gave The Incredible Hulk a Cinemascore of A- with male making up 60% of the audince and females 40%; 48% under age 25%; 25 yrs and older 52%; an ethnically diverse audience of slightly less than half Caucasian (46%), followed by Hispanic (28%), African American (13%), Asian (7%), and other(6%). But most interesting of all tThe vast majority of the audience (82%) had seen the 2003 movie. M Night Shyamalan’s The Happening from 20th Century Fox started out No. 2 Friday but fell to No. 3 behind DreamWorks Animation / Paramount’s Kung Fu Panda. Yet Shyamalan’s first R-rated horror thriller still managed a substantial $30.5M weekend from 2,986 venues with $13M Friday and $10.2M Saturday. It earned only a Cinemascore of “D”.
For my complete numbers and analysis, see here.
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Surprised ‘Happening’ had such a take – heard it’s a complete disaster. Wonder if word of mouth will kill it.
Nikki you do a great job getting these numbers up early and your analysis is usually right, but The Happening and Hulk dropping off Fri to Sat is not really a sign of poor word of mouth. Genre films, comic book movies and horror movies, tend to have big opening days due to fanbase and then fall off on Sat and Sun, regardless of quality. Occasionally you will get a 4 quadrant movie like a Spiderman that will hold up more consistently. But these 2-3 quadrant movies are expected to have a bit of falloff. The word of mouth will be applicable next weekend and most significantly 2 weeks from now. The whole kiddie texting/telling their friends not to see a movie from Fri to Sat is BS, doesn’t happen. And both these movies outperformed this weekend and will likely at least make their money back, even if WOM is not great.
Jim is on the money here.
Hulk was a ton of fun, been getting good buzz. Kids aren’t going to call/text random friends about not going to see a film – the friends they’d do that with, they will go to the movie together!
“Genre films, comic book movies and horror movies, tend to have big opening days due to fanbase and then fall off on Sat and Sun, regardless of quality”.
Unless it’s Iron Man…
Not surprising actually to see the Sat’s take decreasing after the surprising Friday’s B.O.
I guess it is the case of curiousity more than anything else. Sat’s take shows the word of mouth is not good, must be then.
I predict Hulk to have a final gross of 120-140M whereas Happening to gross no more than 70M by the end of its run,
Being humble pays and Night needs to learn this. Stop producing the same old movies and please….no more cameos. It hurts to watch you on screen and the movie loses it’s charm knowing it is all a make-believed.
5th or 6th for a non sequel opening…but Incredible Hulk IS technically a sequel, even though it has a new cast…so it shouldn’t even get that comparison. When you include Marvel sequels, it’s that much further down.
Despite the second day drops, “The Incredible Hulk” will finish the weekend as estimated while “The Happening will finish 50% above its estimate.
Next weekend, it’s 60+% drops for both of them, but I will happy to be wrong.
I love how “genre film” fans always inform pop in to inform how different their films are and can’t be compared to “regular” films..
But who knows. Sex and the City had the Saturday drop too… so it’s a genre film as well.
But Hulk making 160 million is crazy.
When I read the script a few months ago, I knew this was just another “empty suit” movie from M. Night. However, it wasn’t until I heard that it is also a thinly veiled attempted to praise Intelligent Design, there was NO WAY IN HELL, I was going to see this. But really, I think everyone began to read the reviews which were so-so at best. And with his M. Night’s track record,anything less than full-throated raves from critics will doom all of his films.
I would go see the Happening anyway and the new Incredible Hulk. I don’t think word of mouth didn’t kill it but the fact it was rated R. That could turn some audiences off real quick. But anyway all of shamalyan’s films are interesting. But no3 isn’t bad nor good spot. But it’s up against some real strong competiion this summer.
“Being humble pays and Night needs to learn this. Stop producing the same old movies. . . .”
Considering that (a) the movie business is full of overblown egos and that (b) M. Night is almost the only one not making endless bad remakes or endless sequels or endless superhero series or some combination thereof, that’s the most hilarious thing I’ve heard all weekend.
I respectfully disagree with Jim on the bad word-of-mouth issue. I think it HAS hurt The Happening because the film is being rated SO poorly. Correct me if I’m wrong but I think “Speed Racer” got better reviews and word-of-mouth. People are watching their money because of the current recession — yes, even younger people. Part of the reason “Iron Man” has done so well is because text messages went out across the country praising the film and Downey JRs. performance. In contrast, The Happening isn’t happening so the people who are on the fence or waiting for the DVD aren’t getting messages to go see it this weekend and there’s a drop-off. (If I were in a studio’s marketing department, I would develop ways to encourage text messages of positive reviews: providing a textable Iron Man icon that allows the texter the ability to say “Go see this movie!” for example.) And one thing I will say is that I think Marvel made a mistake releasing The Hulk so close on the heels of Iron Man: it automatically invites comaparison and people love Iron Man. They did Hulk a disservice because no one’s reviewing the movie or talking about it without mentioning the previous hit. Or Robert Downey Jr. I know they are trying to tie all these films together and interweave storylines the same way they do in the comic books — and THAT is a really, really smart move. However, it is going to take a few summers for audiences to get used to and understand that kind of storytelling. Eventually, it could get to the point where Marvel is able to dominate every month of the summer by releasing a series of blockbusters that interweave and connect to tell one big story from the perspective of their various heroes. Trust me, movie-goers are salivating for that kind of serialization. But it’s going to take more groundwork for that to take. They’ve been attempting to sell The Hulk by saying “If you love Iron Man, go see The Hulk!” But in order for their Marvel Universe to truly be a “universe”, each character must be viewed in its own right. That way, when they finally do come together in an interweaving, serialized storyline, the team-ups and smack downs actually have meaning and much more dramatic resonance.
Just watched The Happening and it really should have been called Not Much Happening. Word of mouth will kill this movie. 70 Mil? Jesus I hope not.
Family/kids movies in general (like Kung Fu Panda) tend to do better on Sat. & Sun. than on Friday. As a parent myself I can understand why.
I liked The Happening. It oozed old school b-movie pulp right down to the sketchy performances and weird shifting of tone. Yes it had problems but I feel like peoples perceptions of movies has become way to black and white. This is a grey area movie to it’s core and since it isn’t perceived as a home run or delivering the goods (whatever that may be at this time) it’s being denounced as a failure. If it has been made in 73 it’d be a minor cult classic by now. I think The Happening will find it’s admittedly small audience over time.
Am I the only one who doesn’t care to see either of these movies?
The only ones I am looking forward to when they come out on DVD so far are Iron Man, Indiana Jones and Kung Fu Panda…
The rest of the movies look boring or stupid. I haven’t gone to the movies since the last Harry Potter. Why because nothing catches my interest.
Milo:
Wait… isn’t Incredible Hulk technically NOT a sequel. They retell the origin story and nothing carries over from the 2003 film. As far as I can tell it’s a remake at most.
Comment by Harold — June 15, 2008 @ 8:23 am
Gotta give it to ya! I hate to say this but may be right. 60% sophomore drop is in for these 2 titles. The ‘Not So’ Happening is a shoo-in for 1st place big drop-off.
Comment by Reader — June 15, 2008 @ 11:44 am
You are not getting the message here. I am ref to 1 person, Night himself not the studios. We’re talking a director who writes, directs the same old stuffs for all his movies. Tell me the differences bte 6th Sense and this current ‘not -so Happening’ one? I rest my case!!
Comment by chuck — June 15, 2008 @ 9:42 am
I have to agree with ‘A different Ben’ on his comment. It doesn’t matter if the movie is R or PG rating. If the movie is good, people will watch it. See the top 20 movies of all time, there are a couple R-rated ones in them. What matters is good quality, fun, engaging movie and you will get your audiences. If you do a ‘Shyamalan’ then you are doom from the start.
I just hope we all learn from this. Make a movie for the audience and not for yourself. Your ‘made-up’ children’s bed-time story is for your children, not for other people’s children. Stop recyling the same old story, twist-ending.
I was at the Sunday 1pm showing of The Happening at Lincoln Square in NYC today, it was jam-packed.
Kind of creepy seeing all that stuff in Central Park while watching only a couple of blocks away.
Saw The Hulk today – wasn’t impressed. Not a meaty story. The action was good – and it is amazing what they can make happen on a screen these days – but the story was lackluster at best – just NOT interesting. Maybe I am just getting older – I dont know (am only in my 30′s), but neither of my two kids seemed that impressed with it either. Norton was “alright”, Tyler was ok, it was all just ok – but honestly – I will forget about it sooner than later – it just wasn’t that inspiring.
I saw Hulk today, w/ Hubby and 13 yr old daughter, and we all really liked it. Lets just pretend that first Hulk movie didn’t happen, ‘kay? This 2008 version took that bad taste left by the 2003 dreck out of my mouth.
Edward Norton did a really nice job with portraying depth to Dr Banner without a whole lot of dialog. Tim Roth was pretty creepy and William Hurt and Liv Tyler were both good. The effects for the Hulk were very good, I thought. Lot’s of stuff got blown up real good. Little bit of character, lot’s of explosions — can’t ask for much more out of a summer movie.
Panda did more business than Happening but it also had more theaters. If you apply Happening’s average to Panda’s theater count, you get a $42 million weekend for an easy #2, FWIW.
I’d also note this that I ran across about a minute ago on THR:
Overcoming mixed overseas reviews and the European soccer championships, “The Happening” edged “The Incredible Hulk” as the weekend’s No. 1 title internationally, grossing an estimated $32 million from 5,714 screens in 88 markets.
I can only go by the trailer, but CGIs like those in The Hulk look ridiculous amongst live action. Films that are made up totally of CGIs are another story.
But with the designated CGI charavters, I cannot fathom how that looks good to people. Perhaps for those who play a lot of video games, it looks OK.
However, I cannot speak about how others perceive things. For example, I cannot tell an Ashlee Simpson fan that Simpson does not have talent.
RE: HULK
Two strikes and he’s out. All the spinning in the world doesn’t change the fact it opened south of the Ang Lee version (and knock off a few more percentage points due to ticket price inflation.) Can’t build a franchise on that. Didn’t hear any sequel talk from the studio after these soft numbers. Prediction: next weekend B.O.: 21.5 million — even without new action pic competition. And in a few weeks, The Hulk is going to struggle to cross the 100 million mark.