It’s understandable even if ridiculous that Warner Bros keeps trying to lower everyone’s expectations for this behemoth blockbuster of a Batman Begins sequel. My sources at the studio keep insisting that Dark Knight will “only” make $90 million to $100 million for its opening 3-day weekend. I can’t believe they’re seriously suggesting that Dark Knight will make less than Iron Man. But the WB insiders point to all the increased competition at the megaplex now as opposed to the beginning of May. Whereas my box office gurus are predicting domestic gross as high as $130M for the wildly anticipated Christopher Nolan/Christian Bale film because of all those record-breaking early ticket sales at North American runs, including IMAX. That would put it 3rd in terms of all-time opening 3-day weekends — behind Spider-Man 3 ($151.1M on May 4-6, 2007)and Pirates Of The Caribbean 2: Dead Man’s Chest ($131.6M on July 7, 2006). One worry mitigating the Heath Ledger fanboy factor which Hollywood has mentioned is that the pic’s 2 hour and 32 minute running time will limit showings. But that isn’t an issue anymore since many theater managers/owners plan round-the-clock screenings during its midnight July 18 mega-debut. Heck, even the staid New York Times is gushing all giddy about the pic in its news pages, even citing meaningless polls that moviegoers are so hot for the pic they’ll take the day off next Friday just to see it. (Hey, not everyone who frequents the cineplex asks on the job, “You want fries with that?”)
Editor-in-Chief Nikki Finke - tip her here.





I think 140M is closer to the mark. Many “fanboys” have already planned on multiple viewings over the w/e, this is not yet reflected in advance ticket sales. We’ll see…
I think they will pull in closer to $155 Million for opening weekend– YES, $60 Mill on Thurs Night-early Am and Friday opening day showings, $60 Million on Saturday, and the rest on Sunday.
I’ve seen the film already—-It’s a winner !
This film is in danger of being over-hyped the same way Hancock’s numbers were. And the tacky way people are practically threatening The Academy to give Heath some kind of honorary Oscar is so pathetic…
I think it’s going to come down to one thing more than anything else: will parents bring their kids? It’s a PG-13 but it looks far more dark and scary than, say, Hancock. I think that the difference between 90-100mil and 120-130mil is going to be how many tickets are sold to those under 12. While I expect it’ll be a fantastic movie and the kind I want to see rack up massive box office… if kids come out in the quantity needed to hit that 130 mark… I’d be concerned for the kids.
@JS: Yes, do let’s compare this movie to Hancock. Spot on.
I’ve been checking my local IMAX pre-sale and they’re selling out very quickly. They just added a 1:15a show on Saturday morning (in addition to 3am and 6a on Friday). If that isn’t high demand I don’t know what is.
Someone told me that Nolan had shot 40 mins. or so in the IMAX 70mm format so that’s the way to see it.
With people talking about 140-155, that’s sky high and probably unrealistic. But I don’t think this will end up being a situation like Hancock.
Midnight showings sold out so they added more at 3AM. 3AM showings sold out so they added more at 6AM. And this was more than a week before the opening. There’s no question this will be a huge weekend, the biggest of the year. The only question is whether it will be record breaking.
There’s no question the hype for this is huge, but most of the hype seems to be coming from the fans and the critics instead of all from the studio. And huge hype is only a bad thing if the movie disappoints (Hancock?), if the movie is as good as people are saying so far, it will just live up to the huge hype.
Guess I don’t hang out with the deranged fanboys. Haven’t heard anyone really interested in seeing this film. Definitely not getting the same fan build up as Ironman did.
I too have seen the movie, its unbelievable how good it is, whatever expectations you have toss it out the window cause nothing i can say can prepare u for this movie
truly amazing
Paul, you must be smoking something. I tried getting IMAX tickets for the week after it’s out. Sold out. Completely. Dang.
I’m not sure how anybody thinks this won’t rake in the dough, hand over fist. They have spill-over showings starting at 6 AM.
That’s unheard of.
I think everyone is going to be surprised by the money this thing will rake in.
the people that i know who want to see it are the same people who wanted to see it 6months.
it has a massive internet buzz but the people that were interested before are just even more interested now.
If you say over $110 million – and that’s extremely generous – you’re deluded. Full stop.
I’m sure I’m going to love this movie, but in times when the real world is as dark, scary and directionless as it is a superhero movie this (yes) dark, scary and troubling, with a dead star, is not going to be breaking any records.
It doesn’t matter to me if the film is as good as I expect it will be, but the projection hype is just ridiculous.
If I had money – which I don’t, in part thanks to this dark, scary real world (forgive me) I’d bet it against the fanboys on this one.
I also think it’s going to depend on the kiddies. The biggest moneymakers in recent years have been those that appealed to fanboys AND families- such as Spider-Man or Pirates of the Caribbean.
Batman Begins had great reviews, debuted in mid-June, and had strong legs for the rest of the summer. Yet it still only managed a #8 spot on the year’s Top Ten.
150 millon!!!
This is the problem. WB says 100. You say 140. Then if it makes 100, you’ll have a headlines saying “The Dark Knight dissapoints.” How is that fair?
Paul, you must not hang out with anybody, since it’s getting buzz from pretty much everybody.
And as for the length issue, POTC was 2 and a half hours too. And Spider-Man 3 was only 10 minutes shorter.
this movie is gonna kick serious ass!
The big different between THE DARK KNIGHT and HANCOCK is that the former has real actors in it whereas the latter just has an overexposed and utterly nauseating Scientologist celebrity in the lead.
Yep, based on the Rolling Stone review, I’d say that’s a bet. I think it’s 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. I swear every showing in NYC is sold out through the week at least. Including the 3 am and 6 am showings. It’ll be 2 weeks at least before I’ll be able to see it.
I expect TDK to be terrific as I already bought two tickets for different days…but let’s cool on the numbers talk, it’s insane! WB will be happy with whatever it ends up making.
Peggy, if you think you can gauge box office from unreliable review aggregate sites (myself, I prefer metacritic.com for a somewhat more accurate picture) I’ve got some oil wells to sell you.
$110 million maximum (and that’d still be a surprise) and $250 domestic. That’s the high limit and about as confident as I get about anything predictive.
What I will more enthusiastically say is that I’m actually letting myself get excited about the movie–I think it could be a serious competitor for best superhero film of all time.
I’m not a box-office prognosticator, but this film is going to do very, very well. Regardless of opening weekend (which I’m sure will be huge), having seen the film, I would bet serious money that it will garner more repeat viewings than any other summer blockbuster. It’s that good.
Not only is it the best superhero film of all time (good guess Guy), but I am going to lay down the oscar gauntlet here and now. I will lay out serious money that not only Heath but other major (non-fx) categories will be in play for Dark Knight. Get ready.
(No, I’m not affiliated with film or studio in any way)
It will beat Spider-Man 3′s opening weekend and stay strong for the rest of the summer.
I have seen it. It will be huge. 140-155 is not unreasonable. Everyone I know is bringing their 10 year olds. Christ! I saw 5 year olds watching THE STARNGERS with their parents! Times are changing.
This film will own the year.