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It’s understandable even if ridiculous that Warner Bros keeps trying to lower everyone’s expectations for this behemoth blockbuster of a Batman Begins sequel. My sources at the studio keep insisting that Dark Knight will “only” make $90 million to $100 million for its opening 3-day weekend. I can’t believe they’re seriously suggesting that Dark Knight will make less than Iron Man. But the WB insiders point to all the increased competition at the megaplex now as opposed to the beginning of May. Whereas my box office gurus are predicting domestic gross as high as $130M for the wildly anticipated Christopher Nolan/Christian Bale film because of all those record-breaking early ticket sales at North American runs, including IMAX. That would put it 3rd in terms of all-time opening 3-day weekends — behind Spider-Man 3 ($151.1M on May 4-6, 2007)and Pirates Of The Caribbean 2: Dead Man’s Chest ($131.6M on July 7, 2006). One worry mitigating the Heath Ledger fanboy factor which Hollywood has mentioned is that the pic’s 2 hour and 32 minute running time will limit showings. But that isn’t an issue anymore since many theater managers/owners plan round-the-clock screenings during its midnight July 18 mega-debut. Heck, even the staid New York Times is gushing all giddy about the pic in its news pages, even citing meaningless polls that moviegoers are so hot for the pic they’ll take the day off next Friday just to see it. (Hey, not everyone who frequents the cineplex asks on the job, “You want fries with that?”)
Editor-in-Chief Nikki Finke - tip her here.
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I expect it to do about as well as Iron Man did in its opening weekend: $100m to $105m. We will see.
Cannot wait! We have ordered our tickets, have you?
Guy: This thing is going to make well over $250 million domestic. That figure is less than a 20% increase over Batman Begins’ box office, and at that time moviegoers were still weary of the franchise because of Batman and Robin. Wake up.
I tried doing the maths, to see whether there is a pattern for sequels to a successful franchise, grossing more than the 1st and the 3rd of its series
Here’s what I came up with
PoTC 2, Matrix 2, Rush Hour 2, Terminator 2 among some.
I would put Dark Knight as a sequel since it was a jumpstart (meaning, new story line, actors etc..). Therefore, I would say DK2 def has a shot at the record books.
I so want it to break Silly-Spidey3 weekend record but that is not for DK3 but Transformer 2, that’s for sure. So DK2 is should have the shot at dethroning PoTC2 weekend opening record.
P.S. All this talk for Ledger nominating for an Oscar is a very bad joke. Enough already
Hey Guy Fawkes, you better take your mask off, it’s obscuring your vision. That 100 percent on RottenTomatoes is (at this writing) from Variety, Newsweek, Rolling stone, Time and the Hollywood Reporter. Now I know Variety and THR are about as reliable as CHUD.COM nowadays but still. Dark Knight will do way more than 110 million. The surest sign is that WB is lowballing it. Another sign of a HUGE hit is when people say the movie stays with them for days or weeks. Every review I’ve seen says that at the end. That means word-of-mouth. Which means $$$$.
I think 100 to 110 million is a good prediction. Probably the biggest factor for the lower opening is the 2.5 hour+ runtime. That’s several showing fewer than they can fit in for Hancock, Hellboy, etc.
Contrary to the other posts on here, I think the only thing that will hurt Batman is the older than 45 crowd. They’re the only ones I’ve spoken to that aren’t gushing about this movie (I spoke with a few supposed movie buffs who didn’t even know when Batman comes out, though they did know that it starred that dead guy, Keith something…).
I could see it getting the highest opening of the year but for the summer, I’m now second guessing whether it’ll pass Indy 4, which seemed to skew more towards the older crowd.
Side note, no predictions for this weekend? Hellboy 2 was more crowded than I was expecting and slightly more enjoyable than Hulk or Hancock (though still below Iron Man).
My guess is it’ll easily top 120M…but I have a feeling we’ll probably be talking about a new all time number…its just got so much going for it, the hype is huge but its not that ‘fake’ kind of hype that gets generated when the media jump on what they think is going to be the next big blockbuster. Batman Begins did very well, and as a sequal TDK should do better…but with everything else surrounding the movie (Ledger, Bale is now a ‘bigger’ star, great director, superhero movies aren’t just for kids now/Iron Man…) I think its set up near-perfect for a BIG $ number.
The ONLY reason why it might not top Spider Man is Mom & Dad not letting 10 year old Jimmy and his friends see it.
I’ll be pleased if I’m wrong and it does better than I expect. (That’s a nice option at least.) But what I said earlier stands: it may be a superhero film, but it will be too psychologically/thematically disturbing to allow masses of people (all those annoying audience “quadrants”) to indulge the kind of escapism that really gives box-office legs in this depressing year called 2008.
Go Nolan Brothers!
Personally I think you all are expecting way too much for it. I doubt it will do more than $70 million tops…
Sure it has the hype and the tragic loss of Heath Ledger, but I don’t think it will do a $100 million.
Guess we shall see.
This flick will break spider-man’s record.
There hasn’t been this much hype for a movie since
Star Wars ep1.
The difference with TDK and Star Wars is that TDK will not suck.
I’m hyped for this, BUT I know more than a few people who’ve seen the final cut of this already who were a bit underwhelmed by it. They all said Ledger was a revelation but that Batman Begins was better overall.
Never underestimate the power of word of mouth.
I think it’ll do $110. More than that would be cream.
Hey College Student, the key word in your comment is “supposed.” Any true movie buff would know who the dead guy is, considering he was nominated for an Academy Award in one of the most controversial pictures of all time: Brokeback Mountain. That movie dominated headlines for the entire year. Sorry to say but your adult friends are not movie buffs of any sort.
Also, I would think a “movie buff” is aware of most films that are coming out, especially those with the hype surrounding it that The Dark Knight has. I knew Sex and the City was coming out even though I had no interest in seeing it and it was not targeted at a 26 year old male. Perhaps that is because I am someone who pays attention to movies and the movie industry…or looks up at a billboard while I drive.
Re: the older 45+ crowd
Batman might be the most familiar superhero onscreen for them due to the 1989 Tim Burton film and the 60s TV series. My 50 something father wanted to see Dark Knight Friday night but decided to go with the rest of us Saturday. That’s a lot coming from someone who isn’t a big comic book fan, but he does appreciate a good action movie. That’s what is going to draw the older audience in.
I’m not going to pretend to know anything about box office predictions, but what I do know is that I am rooting for this movie to do really well.
The Nolans have consistently turned out great fare, and we’re all hearing that this might be their best one to date. Bale has been gold in performance after performance [American Psycho, anyone?] and of course, the Ledger performance we’re all hearing about.
I’m glad to see a solid flick get the hype it deserves and I’m rooting for it to pull down the big numbers this weekend. In fact, if there’s a showtime that’s not sold out in LA, maybe I’ll see it twice.
Rosario Dawson as Catwoman for the next one.
To comment on a previous statement made by you Guy,
currently TDK is sitting on a 94 on metacritic (although there are few reviews up, so obviously its not a perfect estimation)
as for people downplaying its opening numbers: 300 opened to 70 million, and that was a very niche property…on top of being R.
TDK is hitting on the following levels
1: Strong marketing: they had an amazing viral campaign that was great at keeping the internet crowd/rabid fanboys totally engrossed in the flick…on top of that they’ve made a series of evocative trailers, plus doing cross promotion with a major pizza chain, plus bombarding billboards and tv commercial time
2: It’s PG-13: This is the sweet spot for making money, that’s no big secret
3: Chris Nolan is in the public mind: People are familiar with the Nolan brand now, so it will go a lot further. Nolan followed up Batman Begins with The Prestige, another major hit. Nolan had established himself with movie buffs with Momento, comic book people with Batman Begins, and the commercial movie viewing audience with The Prestige. Director recognition I think played a big part in HB2 doing so well (as well as slick marketing: see point number 1)
4: Its a sequel: This was brought up by an above poster, but it bares repeating…Batman Begins was the film that washed the bat nipple taste from everyones mouth (this can be seen by its box office business: BB had a comparable opening to batman and robin: BB was 48, B&R was 42…however domestically BB went to make 70 million dollars more than B&R because of word of mouth)
5: Its a batman sequel: Batman is one of the most recognizable brands period…young kids know batman, my 66 year old father knows batman. The characters have been interpreted in several different ways and there is no confusion or dilution of the brand:
The joker has been portrayed as:
a guy with a mustache that has white makeup caked over it
a cartoon voiced by luke skywalker
a heavy set jack nicholson
a cartoon voiced by a DIFFERENT voice actor entirely
and now Heath Ledger
yet everyone sees the joker and recognizes him…the appeal of these characters transcends age: at least 3 different generations of people have grown up loving the batman mythos…it always manages to adapt and age well, without loosing it’s core audience
6: Heath Ledger’s swanswong: There are people who wouldn’t be previously interested in this movie, but the posthumous oscar buzz is bound to drum up business
7: Dead weekend: What’s going to pull audiences away from this? Hancock’s in its 3rd week, Wanted is on the way out, everyone that wanted to see Hellboy rushed to see it this weekend so as not to miss Dark Knight. Mama Mia will be successful counter programming, but that won’t pull away core viewers. even the week AFTER TDK is a dead week…
this thing is going to make a fucking scrouge mcduck money bin worth of cash.
The Dark Knight – 160 million opening.. count on it!
Anyone who thinks this movie won’t completely destroy Iron Man and Indy 4 is smoking some good stuff.
If it opens in a least 4,000 theaters it will beat 151 million.
Nikki – Regarding your “you want fries with that?” comment: I’ll bet you that there are far more white collar workers who are able to take a Friday off to see a movie than the sort of people (mostly poor immigrants) who work at fast food chains and who desperately need every penny that they make from their minimum wage jobs.
Also, Dark Knight will break box office records. I think it will outgross Iron Man and Indy IV.
hey true believers! i was at home doing the comic book thing you know doing the math well i took a bite of my grill cheese in contrast to all this hype and other movies like sequels and all the movies that have ever been made and a drink of my milk and then i looked around at the garbage on the floor and i figure by how many times i chewed my sandwich and how many times i took a drink of my milk this movie will do good regardless how you stupid retards sit and speculate how much this movie is going to make you sound like ignorant fools like your intellectually impotent and to the ppl who think this movie is dark and scary ,are you serious!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!? and why is everyone comparing this to HANCOCK ? will smith CANNOT ACT!!!!!! he plays the same role in every movie a loud mouth black guy! with a speech problem ,for the dumb fools who think it wont make over 100 million $ wake up!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! have you ever heard of a movie opening at 12am and selling out so they make a 3am and a 6am just to make ppl happy????????????????????????????/umm no i never heard of this b4 and i know more than you little kids on here! FLATELY! and why wont older adults and kids see this movie ? they see more scary and darker things in there own homes lol you ppl are making me sick shut the $#@#@#@#$%%$##! up! yeah and i guess all the older folks only watch aging stars like harrison ford and the golden girls,i guess they can only identify with old farts like themselves and it might make them wet there depends (ADULT DIAPERS) <—— see i have to do this cause some of you might not catch on to quickly,if they watch it after all they cant watch a movie with a dead star and a guy who dresses like a flying rodant who talks like he has a bad case of tonsilites this movie will be the biggest movie of the year i know 56 kindergarten classes going to see this movie and 169 old ppl from retirement homes across the nation and 2 german grandmothers one only has one arm going to see this movie ,so in short stop trying to predict whats going to happen with this movie and get a life for crying out loud your making a fool of your selves
I really want the movie to do well as Batman has always been my favorite comic character.
I think it will have a huge opening weekend. (At least $100 millon. That’s huge folks.)
It’s after that I’m worried about. I don’t think the runtime is going to scare of anybody, (remember, the biggest movie of all time, Titanic, was 3 hours.)
It’s going to come down to the word of mouth. If people go in expecting it to be the greatest movie ever made then they will be disappointed and tell thier friends, “eh. It wasn’t that good.”
It’s also true that little kids and old people will not see it because it’s too dark.
It’s going to be up to the fanboys to do multiple showings to push this over the 300 mil mark.
We’ll see.
The Dark Knight is poised to break records this weekend. This will gross at least $125 million at the North American by Monday morning. Anyone saying less than $105 million might want to rethink that. There are too many factors that work for “The Dark Knight” and too little against. I predict this will gross $62.5 million INCLUDING midnight grosses Friday, $47.5 million Saturday, and $35.6 million Sunday. That would amount to $145.6 million for the 3-Day weekend. I also predict this will finish with at least $340 million, even an outside chance at $400 million. This is not just internet hype. There is much hype from the general public, not just fans. The only thing hurting its chances of grossing $400 million is because of the lack of families. But who knows; there has been 1 film every 2 years that grosses $400 million. Maybe “The Dark Knight” could be that movie this year if it’s opening weekend beats “Spider-Man 3″, which currently has the record for the biggest opening weekend of all time.
I really hate how movies are only about opening weekend money anymore. ET, Star Wars, Jaws, those movies probably couln’t exist in today’s record-weekend-or-flop world that is only interested in money and not whether or not the movie is good. I’ll wait a couple of weeks for this one and finally drag my butt to see Wall-E sometime during the week, after next weekend.