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Last night on NBC’s The Tonight Show, Jay Leno was doing his Monday night “Headlines” segment when he held up a TV Week cover with a picture of himself and a cutline that said “Host of The Tonight Show on ABC”. When the few laughs died down, Leno looked into the camera and smirked, “It’s like a headline from the future.”
Look, I’ve always thought that Leno and ABC were a logical fit when he leaves NBC (notice I don’t say if he leaves NBC) next year. Yes, Fox gets more ink as his possible next home. But ABC doesn’t seem to want edgy programming, so Leno’s exaggerated mainstream appeal makes sense for the network — even if his advanced age doesn’t. Here’s the problem with both Fox and ABC for Jay: he wants to go head to head with Conan and Letterman. So Nightline would be history.
Back in 2002, Disney’s Bob Iger was ready to jettison the late night news show in a heartbeat if he could lure David Letterman away from CBS. It almost happened — that is, until word leaked out that Disney was axing ABC’s best news program starring its best news anchor Ted Koppel. There was a shitstorm of protest.
Then, in 2004, Iger sought again to steal a late night host — this time, Conan. That was when Zucker, in order to keep O’Brien at NBC, promised to make Conan host of The Tonight Show in 2009 — thus explaining the origins of Leno’s non-stop animosity towards the pint-sized Big Media prez/CEO. Given that Leno is still the late night ratings leader, Iger is circling, along with Fox and Sony television. After all, Koppel’s gone, and Nightline is an afterthought.
So that leaves just one more question mark: Jimmy Kimmel. ABC is extending its option with him by another year, keeping him at the network through at least 2010. But that’s also the earliest date that Leno under his NBC contract terms can start working somewhere else. Kimmel could stay in his time slot if Leno does just a 30-minute show, agree to do a later show, or move to Fox and do an earlier and edgier show. See, this wasn’t so hard to figure out… Stay tuned.
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No question mark really. Kimmel takes the 12:30 slot.
Also, after NBC loses wheel barrows full of money when Leno leaves, expect Zucker to leave soon thereafter…
Jeff is putting his personal feelings – that he should honor his commitment to O’Brien – ahead of the good of NBC. The $40 million should be paid to O’Brien, he should leave in a huff and Leno should stay for as long as he likes…
Echhh, who cares
These guys killed late night. We used to watch religiously, now can’t bear to watch any
Leno is toxic and dumb and antiquated sexist.
Kimmel’s an unfunny dull schlub
Letterman, the only worth anything, has changed, needs new writers too
Leno should just retire
Here’s a terrifying notion to the fossilized studio heads – how about a female host.
I think you’re right, ABC seems the best fit. The web has basically gutted Nightline as the show basically recycles stories left over from the evening news broadcast. No one will complain about its cancellation now.
I think ABC could simply push Kimmel forward to the 12:30-ish spot, who would then go directly against Jimmy Fallon and Craig Furgeson.
But there’s always the chance that another network has some sort of off-the-wall strategy for Jay. There were some offers about setting Jay up in a nightly prime-time, 10pm-11pm time slot. Or Jay might want to do something different and go the Seinfeld route with a sitcom or host of bloopers and/or home video specials.
If Jay was smart, he’d start a production company and spend some of his entertainment “capital,” like Carson and Letterman has. But in the past he hasn’t shown an interest in this.
In any event, it’s going to be interesting to see what happens.
Getting rid of gasbag Leno is the one admirable thing Zucker has done.
If I were Bob Iger- I’d cancel Nightline and put Jay Leno in there. Kimmel is lucky to still have his show and now that Kimmel has broken-up with Sarah Silverman his star is on the decline. Kimmel has peaked and is on the start of a downward spiral. JAY IS STRONG.
Out with Kimmel and in with Leno ! Then for bragging rights- shift Nightslime to a post Jay Leno timeslot.
Kimmel is talented but he’s only broken through so much. Kimmel is not as big a draw as some think he is.
Moreover, there is no guarantee Conan O’Brien will hold onto the traditional Tonight Show audience in middle America. If Leno ends up at ABC, he will take a sizable part of his loyal viewers and cause panic at 30 Rock.
No way Jimmy accepts a bump to 12:30. While ABC has been patient to allow him to cultivate an audience, Jimmy, at the end of the day, would consider this a slight and allow ABC to buy out the remainder of his contract if they indeed bring Leno aboard.
Jimmy already has a relationship with Fox, having participated in the NFL Sunday pregame show from, I think 1999 to 2002, so perhaps they’d be open to bringing him aboard for the 11:00 time slot.
I’ve always been ambivalent about Jimmy. I think he’s a good interviewer and his show can be funny, but he fills it with his painfully unfunny relatives, like his uncle and annoying cousin. Still, IMO he’s the best option late night.
NBC will rue running Leno out because Conan will be a bust at the 11:30 time slot. I don’t know where NBC and Zucker get this notion that Conan has a significant following. I think Craig Ferguson is already, after a couple of years on air, beating him in certain demographics. Personally, I don’t find Conan’s shtick endearing, if anything, it’s incredibly smarmy and annoying.
I think the question may be, how much longer does Letterman have on CBS? He’s in the throes of suffering his lowest ever ratings, and really, can he not look more bored? I use to be a huge Letterman fan, but he’s been mailing it in (that is, when he’s not taking what seems like one of his 100 vacation days per year) for the past ten years.
I think we’re about due for another book, “The Late Shift II”.
NBC’s whiz bang accoutants are going to take it in the shorts. Conan works behind Leno, but against Leno on a major network, he’s toast. Kimel will get a great ride and most likely a nice paycheck to move back a half hour. With DVR, live viewing isn’t what it was. Also consider that Craig Ferguson is making major moves in viewship (for good reason too, he’s damn funny!) against Conan. NBC isn’t killing the golden goose, they are giving it away.
Am I the only one who’s getting a hearty laugh out of Leno’s predicament? Considering how he helped NBC stab Letterman in the back, the fact that he is now the stabee cracks me up. Leno had to know that sooner or later karma was going to come back and bite him in the ass.
isn’t Ferguson now beating Conan anyways? Leno would whoop both him and Letterman, NBC is courting disaster and risking the legacy of ‘The Tonight Show’. That $40 million to Conan seems a small price to pay in comparison.
I agree. There is no way that Conan should be allowed to host the Tonight Show, at least in 2009. The ratings show that NBC must keep Jay for now, and he should dictate when Conan gets the Tonight Show.
As a disney stockholder I would really love to see Leno on ABC…. Its a perfect fit he is consistent ratings grabber they will give him great promotion and profits and maybe Iger can convince Kimmel to stick around to dominate the slot against Jimmy fallon and craig ferguson
Leno is awful. But, for some reason he appeals to people. NBC is making a big mistake in letting him go for Conan, who is very good, but not 11:30 good. Conan will bomb. Letterman will be the big winner here. He has the best show, in any case.
I’m still curious how Conan will fare at 10:30 – Conan has some edge and wit, which tends to be the opposite of the ultra homogenized, AARP friendly fare of the Tonight Show. I’ve always worried that moving Conan to 10:30 would take away the things that made me like Late Night to begin with.
How do you figure NBC loses “wheelbarrows full of money” when Jay leaves? In the same way it lost wheelbarrows full of money when Katie Couric left the Today Show, or when any of the marquee names left SNL? The franchise is the moneymaker, not the host or star. Jay did not create profits for NBC, he inherited them from Johnny, along with his viewers.
Late Night is a cash cow, especially when you have a relatively inexpensive host. How anyone can be sure that 60-year-old Jay Leno is going to take even half his viewers with him by going somewhere else at $30-40 million a year is ludicrous. And don’t forget, he’ll have to sit out six months before debuting
From the time he took over for Carson, Jay has never built on or expanded the Tonight Show audience base.
It will be interesting to see if out on his own he is any kind of ratings draw. He’s certainly not going to take any additional viewers from Dave.
But the bigger question no one seems to be asking is whether Conan O’Brien will be able to hold onto the Tonight Show audience. Hell, he now gets beat one or two nights a week by Craig Ferguson, who has a smaller lead-in from Dave. Which means people are switching over after Leno. A conscious choice.
Somebody get Helen Kushnick on the phone….
Stupidest move on Zucker’s part.
It’s going to cost NBC millions – in the marketing to promoe Conan and the drop in advertising that will happen as sponsors move with Leno.
Kimmel is the odd man out in the ABC scenario, and he should be willing to move to 12:30. Honestly, is 25 minutes enough of an insult to bolt a network deal?
Leno to ABC, Kimmel to Fox with the same time slot. Or Kimmel to follow Conan or Letterman since they have more compatible humor
Spot on with the likely outcome; though its sad, because Kimmel is the funniest. Kimmel’s audience will likely follow him to 1230am — perhaps its no biggie for him.
Simple line up for ABC:
11:35 – Jay Leno
12:35 – Jimmy Kimmel
*Hello ABC, you have a very strong lead in for another one of your shows! You would be stupid not to do this.
Zucker – ugh I hate him!!! No good has been done by him.
How do you figure NBC loses “wheelbarrows full of money” when Jay leaves? by mackherron
First, even if Jay doesn’t take his full audience with him to a new ABC show the ABC network’s nationwide coverage is such that Jay’s new show would dilute the audience numbers for both Conan’s Tonight Show and Dave’s Late Show.
Nobody’s growing new viewers for these shows.
If the networks add more shows at 11:30, they have to cannibalize each other. And Colbert and all the cable guys now too.
Second, if Conan doesn’t stay number one in the ratings Tonight Show ad dollars go down big time.
Third, there are a lot of paths to losing “wheelbarrows full of money” for NBC since they can’t really win here, they can only break even. They are already number one ratings-wise and making the most money.
For them a it’s a “win” (read as “stay even”) only if Conan keeps the show number one and and only if Fallon doesn’t tank his show at 12:30 to Ferguson or Kimmel.
That’s a hard parlay to hit just to keep the status quo.
Conversely ABC has nothing to lose by throwing a bunch of money at Jay and pushing Kimmel a half hour to compete for the younger viewers at 12:30 (where Kimmel should be anyway). Jay could even own his show at ABC like Dave does and Johnny Carson did.
Everybody wins……except NBC.
Let me comment from the “young generation” perspective, because it seems like not one commenter has given Conan his just props. Conan is by far the absolute funniest of all the interviewers, and probably hands down the most intelligent. He will be very capable of making the necessary changes to make an 11:30 show work.
Leno is second best, which left NBC in a tough spot. But if Conan ended up bolting to ABC a few years ago and then beating Leno, Zucker probably would have been fired back then. So he bought himself time.
Kimmel is watchable and Ferguson is improving. Letterman is so painful to watch. Any critics who wonder why “dumb middle America” gives Leno the ratings over Letterman, needs to watch a current show of either now and they’ll instantly realize an audience that prefers to actually laugh during a show rather than remember the “golden years” is not dumb!
Ok enough rambling, I agree Bill Carter needs to write a “Late Shift 2″
“The franchise is the moneymaker, not the host or star. Jay did not create profits for NBC, he inherited them from Johnny, along with his viewers.”
That may be true, but Tonight makes serious money with Jay (more than $200 million in revenue each year) for NBC and you admit Conan probably won’t hold onto the Tonight audience. Soooo… I have no idea what your argument is. Conan is just not going to do well in the Tonight slot and… they are going to lose wheel barrows full of money.
Also, unlike your comparison with the Today show, which has multiple personalties, Tonight survives on its host. A more apt comparison would be The CBS Evening News, where indeed the change of host to Couric was a complete dud and has seriously burned CBS.
NBC is going to make the same mistake and THEY ALREADY KNOW IT. Zucker is just figuring that he’ll be able to survive the mistake.
Maybe.
The worst one of all is Ferguson. His comedy bits are god awful.
Leno’s jokes are good but he can’t be trusted not to go in the gutter and that is so old fashioned.
Letterman’s a bore.
Conan’s writing and quick mind are always hip. That’s why he got the big gig.
Bring in a female! ROSEANNE would be my choice.
I really hope that Leno does go to ABC and Kimmel to follow. He’s already on at 12, so why would 12:30 be a problem. As for nightline, why does it have to be cancelled? Can’t they find a place for it?
This move could actually be good for late night tv with more choices. I just don’t see Conan’s humor to be tonight show material. It truly is NBC’s biggest mistake in the history of television especially for a 4th place network — Leno’s been number one for years and he must be on a network — us viewers will follow.