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Friday and all weekend could be one for the Hollywood record books.
EXCLUSIVE: Though they won’t dare discuss this in public, I’m told that Warner Bros bigwigs are hoping for between $160 million and $170 million for 
Batman: The Dark Knight as 3-day weekend total gross from a record 4,366 North American theaters despite a 152 minute running time. Now that may be impossible, and a huge increase from the $130 million that the studio bosses were expecting earlier in the week, but anything over $100 million is going to be considered a humongous success. Because the ticket sales frenzy, from coast to coast, city to city, town to town, with almost 24/7 performances even in the hinterlands, new screenings being squeezed in by the minute, online services selling an average of nearly 10 tickets per second for the pic during peak periods, and all those IMAX sell-outs, has everyone revved up.
Warner Bros toppers have their sights set on taking down every record, too. They especially want to better Sony’s Spider-Man 3, which scored the best 3-day weekend opening of $151.1 million over May 4-6 last year. 
And to beat the best-ever 3-day non-holiday weekend box office overall, this Batman installment has to better $218.4 million in total domestic grosses set on July 7-9, 2006, when Disney’s Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest opened with $131.5 million. Meanwhile, see the Batman franchise numbers here.
My own box office gurus’ predictions for this weekend are: a low of $100M to a high of $135M for Warner Bros’ The Dark Knight from a record 4,366 North American theaters, a low of $20M to a high of $31M for Universal’s Mamma Mia! in 2,976 venues (the ticket sales frenzy is driving this musical, well, batty), and $6M to $8M for Starz/Fox’s Space Chimps in 2,511 runs.
For more estimates listed by title, see box office results here...Editor-in-Chief Nikki Finke - tip her here.
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Am I the only guy in this town who’s tired of comic book films? Nikki’s devoted already several blogs to this movie in awe over its box office success. Who cares? I’m sure the movie’s good, but what about actual films. Remember those?
Money reigns these days. And people talk about the box office as though it’s some faction of art.
I watched 12 Angry Men recently. Now THAT is a film. I wonder how much it made on its opening weekend.
Ho-hum, I say to Batman.
This movie may break records at the BO, but Hollywood is artistically bankrupt.
^ Okaaaay Gramps. Just check the reviews before you open your trap.
Tired, this is deadline hollywood daily. Do you also get angry when there are multiple posts on deadspin about sports, on dailykos about politics, or on chowhound about food?
Bizarre.
Does Cinco De Mayo weekend really count as a holiday weekend?
And wooooooow at Tired’s snobbery.
Lol at the clueless old guy (unless he is schtick — in that case, brilliant!)
Mamma Mia is being WAYYYYY overrated… It will be lucky to clear $20 million… There’s no Leo DiCaprio to save this ship…
Yeah, Gramps! You can’t compare the DARK KNIGHT with some Tony Danza movie. 12 Angry Men…sheeeesh.
(p.s. Before you your dentures pop out with anger…I am aware of the original 12AM, i just wanted to wind you up by citing the Danza version).
Old guy funny.
there needs to be more superhero movies. they are so clever. good guy, tortured, special… fights bad guy, tortured, special and wins. oh wow. awesome. f-ing amazing. i think hollywood should ban all other types of movies. just make superhero movies for the teeny boys crowd. those of us who shamefully are in their 30′s need to stay at home and knit sweaters and drink hot tea in a rocking chair. but wait… maybe we can go to one of these superhero/comic book movies as you call them and feel oh so young again. and the children shall lead them.
does anyone know when they will have the numbers for the midnight grosses?
Yeah, Tom, it’s not like there’ll ever be a dark, complex super hero film suitable for intelligent adults.
OH WAIT
I loved The Dark Knight, but I think WOM is going to be poisonous to repeat and family business. It’s not the archetypal “Let’s go again!” blockbuster-it’s a lengthy, ponderous noir that will traumatize kids if they manage to stay awake. I expect dropoff to be steep. Still, I’m really impressed with the risk Warners took on in making this film the way it is.
I think this bashing of a film that is trying to elevate comic book heroes into something human, relatable, and literate is ignorant to say the least. The Batman character is multi-faceted and the movie not just a smack em’ around blow em’ up escape (although there was a lot of that).
I think the notion that Nikki is trying to get across is that the box office is very healthy with a movie like this, and that’s good for so many including the movie watching public.
Also, just got back from a midnight screening which was number two of five. They added three today to make five from overwhelming demand. Could go over $120M for the weekend.
Nikki, do you know whether WB will be releasing DK same day and time globally? I can’t find any reports on this.
Spidey 3 & PoTC3 was released simultaneously around the globe last year with Silly-Spidey winning the crown for being the biggest overseas total of all time 230,544,376. (80% of global mkt share with over 107 markets)
I recalled your posting last year about the squabbles btw Sony and the folks at Disney of each claiming to have the biggest B.O for a global release.
For the record, PoTC3 collected 216,000,000 (Through Sunday, the traditional cut-off for foreign openings, it grossed $216 million, second only to Spider-Man 3′s $230.5 million start)
If memory serves me right, PoTC3 had extra evening previews B.O included in its reported 251M
So if DK is released this week and weekend globally, it should have a shot to hit 250M if domestic receipts gross more than 150M.
Now that is something WB can brag all year long before Paramount release Transformer 2.
So, any news on DK global launch Nikki?
Justin clearly works for a rival studio.
Dark Knight is NOT getting a simultaneous global release – here in the UK, it opens next weekend.
A low of 100? Seriously? You actually think there’s a possiblity it opens no bigger than Iron Man or Indy? It sounds like they may have had 100M in presales before the first screening even happened – this may not set a new record, but it will be way closer to 150 than to 100.
I’m with you tired. Your hollywood detractors (chink, mustard, joe) snap like a clique of high school girls.
I love how theaters limited their “Meet Dave” screenings to 2 shows per day to open up their theaters for more TDK viewings. Definitiely a much better use of the space. Here’s to a record breaking weekend (Pops beer top).
bryan @ 2:04am may end up being right–I used to think similarly–but I (now) have my doubts. Plus, any super-frontloaded blockbuster will have a steep drop-off regardless…but if the drop-off from weekend to weekend is less than 50%, that means people love it enough to recommend and have repeat business, AKA “legs”. Will be interesting to see how it plays out.