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Reliable sources are telling me that the Wednesday opening for Ben Stiller’s Tropic Thunder from DreamWorks/Paramount was just around $6.5 million from 3,319 North American theaters. 
(But another R-rated comedy, Sony’s Pineapple Express, did $12.1M a week ago.) So what are its weekend prospects? Well, the studio fully anticipated the soft Wednesday opening and still believes Tropic Thunder can make $40 million in its first 5 days. “We will play to a little older audience than Pineapple Express, so we should do better on Saturday and get to about the same box office,” one insider tells me. But one problem is that, unlike Judd Apatow movies, Tropic Thunder has underweighted wanna-see among the gals: there’s only moderate interest among women under 25, and zilch interest among women under 25. Another worry is that this was a very expensive laugher, witha negative cost of $100+M. To get to $40M domestic gross, the studio is hoping that the old maxim holds true: that any publicity is good publicity. And this pic starring Stiller, Jack Black and Robert Downey Jr has been hyped to the max. On the down side, some vocal African-American actors (because of Downey in blackface) and mental disability advocates (because of the un-PC use of the term “retard”) are pissed at the spoof. On the up side, critics are loving Ben Stiller’s direction and script and story (with Justin Theroux) and Tom Cruise’s cameo. But all along Hollywood has wondered whether Tropic Thunder could break the curse that movies about movies don’t do well at the box office, especially if they’re stuffed like this one with the kind of insider jokes that would even go over the heads of The Grill’s lunchtime regulars.
Here is what my box office gurus are predicting: low $30sM for Friday-Saturday-Sunday and low $40sM for the 5 days. As one of my experts analyzes, “Unfortunately, a few of the tracking services say that Tropic won’t be as high as Pineapple. They are saying about $35M for the 5 days. My gut is higher. I bet $42M for the 5 days. The reviews could not be better, the heat is huge, people love comedy. I think it will surprise.”
As for this coming weekend’s Friday opening movies, my box office gurus are all over the map on LucasFilm/Warner Bros’ Star Wars: The Clone Wars toon for the geek in all of you (not me) with dominant tracking interest from males over 25, with predictions from a low of $15M to a high of low $20sM from 3,300+ venues. The higher numbers depend on how many 8 to 11 aged boys show up to see it. Mirrors, the Regency/Fox horror film from the director of The Hills Have Eyes and starring Kiefer Sutherland, will probably open in the low teens with around $13M with balanced interest across 3 of the 4 quadrants. Male over 25 interest is the weakest but appears siphoned by Clone Wars and Tropic Thunder. And Woody Allen’s sexy Vicky Cristina Barcelona from The Weinstein Co/MGM starring Scarlett Johansson, Penelope Cruz and Javier Bardem, should collect about $3 million from its 692 runs. Also opening is Summit Entertainment’s animated feature Fly Me To The Moon which is going out in 3D on every screen (428 real D, 16 IMAX and 8 in Canada). The weekend estimate is $1M to $2M, limited by not by demand because consumers want to see 3D films (ergo the success of Journey To The Center Of The Earth) but by supply within the exhibition community. Summit acquired the rights to the film with no minimum guarantee. And Warner Bros’ mega-blockbuster The Dark Knight? This 5th weekend in theaters will see it drop from No. 1 to #2 or possibly even #3…
Editor-in-Chief Nikki Finke - tip her here.
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Not surprised by the ‘low-key’ opening night number. I dont think this movie will do as well as everyone thinks considering the subject matter and R rating. Dont get me wrong, I want to see it, but it has very limited appeal.
And why are people mad about the use of the word retarded in the trailer!?! Did they not see “The Ringer” a few years back?
Tropic Thunder also has a HUGE opponent to face this week: The Olympics. Tropic Thunder = $10.50, Olympics = $10.
Plus the teenagers and 20-somethings are less likely to spend money now that summer’s coming to an end and there’s been enough comedies to empty the wallet.
I cant believe you went out of your way to spoil that cameo. Shame on you. That was really low class.
Just saw it this evening. Let me state I am a minority and a woman. If anyone was going to be offended by this film it certainly would be me.
But I’ve got to tell you folks get off the damn picket lines and go see the movie. I sat next to an African American guy and he laughed his ass off like the rest of the audience at that showing.
It is crude, it has farts, it is gory, it has some cringe-inducing parts, it makes fun of the mentally challenged, over 40 actors, African Americans, Hollywood media moguls, Aussie method actors who never get out of character, action film makers, people adopting children from overseas, druggies, ass-kissing agents and assistants and just about anybody who might take offense to anything.
Amazingly, I didn’t see one Bush joke! Course, I could have missed it in all the laughter that covered up the next line. I laughed so hard and so long at so much of this film that I almost threw up.
It’s gross, it’s offensive, it is vulgar, it’s funny as shit. Hell, any film that has Jack Black tied to a tree is worth going to see in my book.
Tom Cruise was the surprise of the film for me! He pulled off some truly funny stuff.
It may be starting slow but the word of mouth on this is going to be huge. Take my word for it.
**Spoiler** Robert Downey Jr starts talking to the true African American actor in the film within a film about how they’ve been held back for hundreds of years… Then starts saying how it’s changing. He ends up quoting the words to the opening theme of “The Jeffersons.” That’s one of the times I almost lost the hot dog I wolfed down at the start of the film.
Go see this movie. Take off your hat of indignation; expect the worst when it comes to being offensive and prepare to spend 110 minutes guiltily laughing your ass off!
Well, believe it or not Paramount expected this. They already said in an interview on Variety that they weren’t expecting huge opening numbers like PE because TT has wider appeal and so they believe it will do alot better over the weekend. I still expected a little more though.
Kudos for using The Ringer as the ultimate backhanded compliment. Here’s one thing you can’t overlook though — the throngs of parents who see their disabled children get picked on at school by the use of the word — retard. That’s a vocal and protective group. Hopefully the use of it in the movie is with some awareness. If it’s not, then it’s a waste.
I agree. This won’t do as well as they’d like. Making fun of spoiled actors who play at war? Please. It’s kinda like making fun of rappers. It’s redundant. Also, pushing the “this is Tom Cruise’s comeback” meme won’t work either. NO ONE LIKES HIM. I will not pay my very hard earned money to see him. (Don’t believe me? See Nikke’s previous UA stories from today. Tom’s falling star sank his own studio)
What’s funny is that the movie is mocking actors/performers/studios who purposefully exploit minority groups in order to try and win awards. However irreverently, the movie is “on their side” (of the minority groups).
As someone who saw this film and has known mentally challenged people, I am DEEPLY offended by the activists groups that claim any of the content in Tropic Thunder poses some sort of affront to a specific group of people.
The movie is hilarious, but it ain’t provocative. It doesn’t even come CLOSE to vilifying or ridiculing or poking fun at retarded or black people.
So, my dear activists, in the words of Les Grossman, “____ ____!!!”
They’re trying to do something bold and original in the comedy genre. Un-PC is admitted with animated characters on tv but its seems that it has a long way to go before being accepted in live-action.
I guess the DVD will become cult. Forgive me, I’m French, some of Adam Sandler movies even go direct-to-video here.
What is with these non Holiday Wednesday openings??? Pine Apple Express would have opened-up number one at the box office…if it had opened on a Friday, and now, Tropic Thunder may suffer the same fate. Certainly, a bad releasing strategy for both films, but I could have called this ahead of time. I am in utter shock due to these completely illogical choices??? This bad planning is, negligent at best, and executive level incompetence at worse!!!
Saw it last night. It’s a very very very funny movie.
I’ve got to argue with Nikki using the term “blackface”. Downey Jr.’s character had “a surgical procedure” to alter his appearance. The protestors are idgits. Why can’t people just see a parody for a parody?
The problem is, the people and organizations who are complaining and protesting and boycotting – they just don’t get it. Stiller’s character is an action star that attempts to get his Oscar by going to the old Oscar-bait standby and playing someone with a mental handicap… and he gets nailed for it. The world turns on him – and suddenly he finds his entire career at risk. The humor isn’t at the expense of the mental handicap, but at how bad and ignorant Ben Stiller’s character is at bringing it to life.
The movie is not ridiculing mentally disabled people, and it’s not mocking black people. It is portraying the main characters as ignorant and stupid for holding those views and taking such actions. It is exposing the idiocy of such prejudices and insensitivity.
I do have to give credit to Dreamworks and Paramount. They’re not touching one frame of the film. They stated that no changes or cuts would be made in response to these compaints. Bravo. Score one for the people that DO “get” it.
I actually really want to see it. I just figured it wasn’t out until the weekend.
That blackface nonsense has got to stop.
Didn’t Eddie Murphy and the Wayans Brothers use “white face” in their movies.
I didn’t hear an outcry from the white community about that.
When i saw the first promo for TT and saw Robert Downey jr in black face,i knew right there and then that Al Sharpie and Jessie Jackson where gonna have a field day with this.
It seems that after Paula Wagner,satire also left the building.
What African American organizations are protesting? Because I haven’t seen or heard about them protesting at all. I don’t think there is an uproar in the Black community about this film AT ALL. And as much as we can make fun of Al Sharpton for complaining, I haven’t seen him out there protesting.
I think Nikki is wrong about that part. The only people complaining are the advocates for the mentally disabled.
As far as this film is concerned, it looks funny, but I’m not going to run out and see it first weekend. I may not even see it at all and just wait for the DVD. With comedy, my tastes are a little bit different. So rather than waste 13 bucks on something that makes me chuckle, I’d rather stay home and watch my DVD’s of “30 Rock” or “Arrested Development”.
TT is not an event movie. And I don’t know why some sites are predicting a 53 million dollar 3 day weekend.
That’s shenanigans.
Who have been the “vocal African-American” actors protesting Robert Downey, Jr.’s appearance?
I think the Olympics is going to keep some of TT’s audience at home this weekend. And I think the appeal of a new Star Wars film (even if it’s anime) is underrated. Also I think TT’s marketing has been weak. It may have buzz, but the ads are weak.
So going on nothing more than a gut feeling, I think Star Wars is going to do $28 million, Tropic Thunder $23 million, The Dark Knight $15 million, Pineapple Express $12 million, Mirrors $11 million. We’ll see.
FWIW, last night 10:30 show, Loews Lincoln Square in the big theater. About 3/4 full, huge laughs from the crowd many times, smattering of spontaneous applause at the end, packs of 20-somethings reciting lines in men’s room, street outside afterwards.
While most of the “retard” jokes are actually making fun of the actors rather than disabled people, the film does cross the line a few times and make jokes at the expense of the mentally handicapped. Still, not enough for a boycott but there are some insensitive moments.
As for Downey Jr., they were more careful with him (Stiller and RDJ both credit Brandon T. Jackson for telling them whenever jokes crossed the line) although there is still the problem of what people are laughing at. Often, I found people laughing at RDJ’s impression as if that was the joke. They’d cackle at him but then get silent whenever Jackson’s character called him out (which should have been the punchline). It’s the same problem that Dave Chappelle struggled with.
Still, it’s a very funny movie and while it might cross the line a couple times, I didn’t find it to be objectionable.
As for some people’s dark horse The Clone War, if a Star Wars film can’t even get a good review from Harry Knowles, I’m not sure how much it can expect at the box office.
Well I’ll just say it because no one else on here will.
Dark Knight in a surprise will be number 1 for a 5th straight weekend, barely squeaking by TT for about. $480M-ish cume by Sunday, and $500M by 8-24. $510-515M by Sept 1.
Then we’ll see if WB pushes it in some way.
In the same way that everyone on here is sick of Apatow, I am sick of Stiller. At least he’s not a schmuck trying to fall in love in this one, like in his previous 8 films or so. Ugh.
Dunno if TT is too Hollywood in-jokey to work coast to coast.
btw the Jeffersons bit was not a spoiler eb…it was in the longer previews
“the throngs of parents who see their disabled children get picked on at school by the use of the word — retard.”
Any child that is truly mentally disabled enough to fit the definition of “mentally retarded” is probably going to be in a special school anyway. Not to mention that this is an R rated movie – if parents are taking kids who aren’t already familiar with the term “retard” to movies like this, that’s the least of their worries. Really, you think kids haven’t figured out “retard” as an insult, and this movie is going to let the genie out of the bottle?
And I have to agree with those who have pointed out that there has been (surprisingly?) little outcry from the black community. Who are these “vocal” actors? Do they really exist?
And the Tom Cruise cameo isn’t that big a secret, anyone who is that sensitive about spoilers shouldn’t be reading industry insider blogs like this one.
Star Wars I can’t see making much at all. Animation is terrible, reviews are terrible, and it’s not even a real movie, it’s just the first couple episodes of a new cartoon show cobbled into a theatrical release. It would be like releasing that Ewok Movie in theatres, people just don’t consider it a real star wars movie.
It’s widely reported by now that Tom Cruise is in Tropic Thunder. And guess what? It was widely reported about Matthew McConaughey’s cameo after he replaced Owen Wilson after his suicide attempt. People with no class are fools like snaporaz.
why do no articles (including this one) or interviews with ben stiller bring up the fact that etan cohen wrote an extremely funny first draft that stiller and theroux then re-wrote? i read cohen’s draft and the shooting script wasn’t all that different from the orig. i’ve never even met cohen, just thought i’d put that out there as a fellow writer.