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Reliable sources are telling me that the Wednesday opening for Ben Stiller’s Tropic Thunder from DreamWorks/Paramount was just around $6.5 million from 3,319 North American theaters. 
(But another R-rated comedy, Sony’s Pineapple Express, did $12.1M a week ago.) So what are its weekend prospects? Well, the studio fully anticipated the soft Wednesday opening and still believes Tropic Thunder can make $40 million in its first 5 days. “We will play to a little older audience than Pineapple Express, so we should do better on Saturday and get to about the same box office,” one insider tells me. But one problem is that, unlike Judd Apatow movies, Tropic Thunder has underweighted wanna-see among the gals: there’s only moderate interest among women under 25, and zilch interest among women under 25. Another worry is that this was a very expensive laugher, witha negative cost of $100+M. To get to $40M domestic gross, the studio is hoping that the old maxim holds true: that any publicity is good publicity. And this pic starring Stiller, Jack Black and Robert Downey Jr has been hyped to the max. On the down side, some vocal African-American actors (because of Downey in blackface) and mental disability advocates (because of the un-PC use of the term “retard”) are pissed at the spoof. On the up side, critics are loving Ben Stiller’s direction and script and story (with Justin Theroux) and Tom Cruise’s cameo. But all along Hollywood has wondered whether Tropic Thunder could break the curse that movies about movies don’t do well at the box office, especially if they’re stuffed like this one with the kind of insider jokes that would even go over the heads of The Grill’s lunchtime regulars.
Here is what my box office gurus are predicting: low $30sM for Friday-Saturday-Sunday and low $40sM for the 5 days. As one of my experts analyzes, “Unfortunately, a few of the tracking services say that Tropic won’t be as high as Pineapple. They are saying about $35M for the 5 days. My gut is higher. I bet $42M for the 5 days. The reviews could not be better, the heat is huge, people love comedy. I think it will surprise.”
As for this coming weekend’s Friday opening movies, my box office gurus are all over the map on LucasFilm/Warner Bros’ Star Wars: The Clone Wars toon for the geek in all of you (not me) with dominant tracking interest from males over 25, with predictions from a low of $15M to a high of low $20sM from 3,300+ venues. The higher numbers depend on how many 8 to 11 aged boys show up to see it. Mirrors, the Regency/Fox horror film from the director of The Hills Have Eyes and starring Kiefer Sutherland, will probably open in the low teens with around $13M with balanced interest across 3 of the 4 quadrants. Male over 25 interest is the weakest but appears siphoned by Clone Wars and Tropic Thunder. And Woody Allen’s sexy Vicky Cristina Barcelona from The Weinstein Co/MGM starring Scarlett Johansson, Penelope Cruz and Javier Bardem, should collect about $3 million from its 692 runs. Also opening is Summit Entertainment’s animated feature Fly Me To The Moon which is going out in 3D on every screen (428 real D, 16 IMAX and 8 in Canada). The weekend estimate is $1M to $2M, limited by not by demand because consumers want to see 3D films (ergo the success of Journey To The Center Of The Earth) but by supply within the exhibition community. Summit acquired the rights to the film with no minimum guarantee. And Warner Bros’ mega-blockbuster The Dark Knight? This 5th weekend in theaters will see it drop from No. 1 to #2 or possibly even #3…
Editor-in-Chief Nikki Finke - tip her here.
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All good comments, but Nikki, can’t you filter out the obvious b.s. flack material, like Eb’s overemphatic, patently phoney rah-rah plug?
Paul,
Hate to disappoint you but I don’t work in Hollywood or for anyone or any entity associated with Hollywood. And amazingly, I don’t have any aspirations to do so.
I work at a schlub job like most of my friends and we enjoy going to movies because it helps to take us away from the day-to-day doldrums of our lives.
You should be grateful. I’m one of your dream fans – the kind who will tell you if what you’re putting out there is shit or if what you’re putting out there is funny or good.
My comments were sincere – I loved the movie! And I don’t usually go to these type of films. I don’t go to parody films.
I do however, like movies that will make me laugh. This one did that. It also surprised me. Unlike someone else here who noted that it was “widely reported” who was in the film, I hate to burst your bubble but most of us who don’t work in your industry don’t sit around reading the trades.
The only thing I knew about this movie was from the trailers. It looked funny so we went to see it.
You’re an ass to think EVERYONE who posts here works in your industry. And you’re an ass to think that EVERYONE who doesn’t work in it can’t express themselves with more than just simple two and three letter words.
I now understand why so much crap comes out of Hollywood. If people like you can’t tell a real post from a fake one – how the hell would you know what WE want to see?
***again, rolls eyes, shakes head, walks off***
I do not feel that the movie should be banned. But I am mad as can be at dreamworks.
The n-word was used once, and they consulted with African-Americans.
Not only is the word “retard” used SEVERAL times in the movie (and they did not consult with anyone), they also portray intellectually disabled people very poorly, they have a father saying reacting negatively to the fact that he has a developementally disabled son, etc. If Stillman had portayed the blacks as poorly as he portroyed those with disabilities, you can bet the black community would be reacting.
And way do you care if the disabled community protests? Cause we look at you? Try living on our side of the fence and see what it feels like to be disabled in America.
PS. Who says disabled kids go to special-ed schools. Haven’t you ever heard of inclusion?
“Dark Knight in a surprise will be number 1 for a 5th straight weekend, barely squeaking by TT for about. $480M-ish cume by Sunday, and $500M by 8-24. $510-515M by Sept 1.”
Did you even do the math on this? To make 480 by sunday, that’s 30 million over the next four days. That’s about what it made over those four days LAST week. Best case for this weekend for TDK is probably 18 million. Tropic Thunder is in big trouble if it can’t make that.
And Rickismom, I’m sorry about Ricki, but none of the things you describe reflect poorly on mentally disabled people, if one of the characters is bummed he has a mentally disabled kid, that reflects poorly on HIM. And I’m curious, if you are offended by that sort of thing, I assume you knew about this before going to see the movie – why did you still go see it? Or are you just making assumptions based on what you’ve heard?
Comment by Dr. Kenneth Noisewater
Bingo! Why can’t we just get along and laught at ourselves once a while.
DK will finally relinquish the throne this weekend, no doubt about it. But sad not for soon it will reaches 500M and lauging all way to the bank and the record books.
TT will be a hit for sure, sure am hoping for it. PE which was frontloaded due to Apatow’s name on it and fame for his crude jokes, that drove teenages and the younglings to see it on its opening day. TT wil be a slow burner. (also, it doesn’t have Murphy, Ferrel nor Carell..whew!!)
I reckon TT will play to older crowds which means, they will be taking their time to get to the theaters.
Prediction: 17M for Wed & Thurs. 21M for the weekend take.
Aa drop of 50% or close to it is waiting for PE.
No surprise considering Ben Stiller show proven himself to be incapable of directing a halfway decent film or one that makes more than a buck fifty. Stiller ought to stick to acting which he’s actually adequate at.
Try less than 25 mil for the whole weekend and huge drop next week.
1. No one outside Hollywood cares about a Hollywood send up.
2. The trailer was terrible even if BS insiders in the trailer industry gave it an award.
3. The movie is TERRIBLE! Seriously, it wasn’t funny, it wasn’t timely. (Will young people even get some of the Viet Nam movie parodies? – Black doing Tex Cobb in Uncommon Valor for cryin’ out loud!
4. the critics only said they liked it because they don’t want to seem unhip, just like with last week’s Pinapple Express which took a huge header once audiences realized that it was a terrible, uneven mess of a movie.
5. This is the third straight weekend with an overrated , uneven Hollywood comedy and I think people have had enough.
Just to have you know, that My son with Down syndrome goes to a regular school, and walk’s regular halls along with his tyical peers. Not all children go to special schools. As a matter of fact most do not. So this movie does affect our children, and even more, if you think it doesn’t, how do you think my child felt when we were at the store and some teens stated that he ” went full retard”. If that doesn’t affect society, and if that doesn’t draw the line, than what does.
Wow all the people complaining need to shut the hell up. My god. Its a fucking comedy. Cry more?
I dont care if your son is disabled, are they referring to him in the movie no. They are referring to actors playing mentally retarded characters. Stop digging for a problem that doesn’t exist.
You people are pathetic.
Hey, Eb — pretty good approximation of a “regular Joe” response: indignant tone, lame attempt at humorous ripostes, tortured syntax. The all-caps was a nice touch, too.
The funniest part was your continued assumption that I’m somehow part of the industry; why, just because I know the word, “flack?” Hate to break your bubble, industry-flunky, but I’m just a smart-ass from the Midwest (yup; we read the trades out here, too).
I’m a woman — over 25, it’s true.
Loved this movie. Thought it was one of the funniest movies I’ve ever seen.
If it doesn’t do well this week, it’ll be because of the Olympics. It’ll have terrific word of mouth.
Nikki P., you really think that kids would never have made fun of your kid until they got the idea from this movie? Come on.
Paul,
Ah, you cleared it up for me. Midwest smart-ass.
Based on your response to me I see you still have your head up your ass (because I still don’t work in Hollywood or for anyone in it or the industry); and that you still think your opinion and commentary is so “spot-on” that you can’t see the truth when it’s staring you in the face.
I also find it funny that you believe that when you tell someone to do something “Nikki can’t you filter out the comments I don’t like” that they will actually do it. Tells me how much of a self-absorbed ass you really are.
As to my indignation, I thought it was offensive that your post wasn’t about the topic but only made to rip into me. I gave a sincere comment, I must have told at least 30 people about the film and recommended they see it. Quite a few are going this weekend, some went the next night and came back with the same reaction I had – laughed their asses off.
Here’s a suggestion, why don’t you start your own blog and then you can control who posts or not because we all know – in your world – it’s all about Paul.
But thanks for the clarification (BTW – love that comment “industry-flunky.”) Hmm, maybe I should apply for a job with a PR firm. I can always use your post as one of my references. “See here – this yokel already thinks I work for you!!”
For the record, The Ringer was screened for the Special Olypmics people, who gave it their complete support. The movie does not use a “fake” Special Olympics type event, it uses the actual one, with real performers and the whole shebang. There was no fuss over that film (aside from potential South Park copyright infringement) because The Ringer had the blessing of the people who would rail against it.
Thanks for the final nail-in-the-coffin confirmation, Eb! You’ve earned your oats this week; hopefully, your industry boss will now give you a break from getting the coffee and picking up the dry cleaning (and remember, it’s supposed to be 140 degrees). Only a supremely self-absorbed, self-hating, navel-gazing flack, momentarily distracted from the endless, mind-numbing minutia of scouring the blogs, promoting today’s cinematic dreck, would think my one-line toss-off was personally “offensive!”
Bravo, you cretin!
The joke is not on the movie industry etc., it’s on us for spending our hard-earned money going to see this putrid movie.