A&E IndieFilms Sets ‘Happy Valley,’ … 
Hot Cannes Property: Natalie Portman, Lynn Ramsay Team On … 
Brad Pitt Hits Cannes With ‘Killing Them … 
Longtime TV Exec Rod Perth Named NATPE President & CEO 
RATINGS RAT RACE: ‘House’ Ends Run On High-Ish … 
Does Cable News Clarify Or Confuse The Public’s … 
Mark Burnett’s Company Launches Scripted Unit, Taps … 
‘Mary Mother Of Christ’ In Lionsgate Deal 
Icon UK Group Joins ‘The Butler’; Forest … 
Best Buy Shares Up Pre-Market As Q1 Earnings Beat Estimates 
HBO Developing Comedy Series Starring Catherine Keener And … 
Will ‘Paperboy’ Heat Domestic Buying At Cannes? … 
Millennium Films Buys Spec Thriller ‘Playing … 
Will ‘American Idol’s’ Jessica Sanchez … 
Legendary’s Thomas Tull Among Just 3 Contenders … 
Harvey Weinstein Unveils ‘The Master’, … 
CBS’ ‘Rules Of Engagement’ Renewed For … 
Facebook Shares Fall Below Offering Price Even As Market … 
UTA Signs ‘Intouchables’ Star Omar Sy 
Weather Wreaks Havoc In Cannes; Wind Damage Forces … 
Cable Execs Warn That Dish Network’s Ad-Zapping DVR … 
Oscar ballots go out today from the Academy Of Motion Picture Arts And Sciences to its 5,810 members and are due back on January 12th. Nominations will be announced January 22nd with the Academy Awards telecast held February 22nd. I know people love to endlessly speculate about who’s going to get nominated, and who might win, but I must say this year’s Oscars is shaping up as rather suspense-less. According to my AMPAS voter gurus who constantly talk to other Academy members, consensus already is forming around Fox Searchlight’s Slumdog Millionaire for Best Picture. Also, I don’t know why opinion is focusing on Cate Blanchett in The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button over, say, Meryl Streep in Doubt for Best Actress. And Heath Ledger in The Dark Knight for Best Supporting Actor is considered a lock. 
I’m told by Academy members that David Fincher would have a better shot at Best Director for Benjamin Button if only he wasn’t considered such a jerk (yes, that factors in unless a pic is the absolute frontrunner), so Slumdog‘s Danny Boyle is the favorite. Which means the only real mystery surrounding the Oscars is the Best Actor category with Sean Penn for Milk, Frank Langella for Frost/Nixon, Clint Eastwood for Gran Torino, and Mickey Rourke for The Wrestler all seen as having an equal chance to win. My insiders say Langella may have the edge right now among the older voters, and Penn with younger voters, but Rourke is also starting to be singled out. It’s too early to speculate on other categories since the vast majority of Oscar voters don’t even start screening most DVDs until after Christmas. I just hope Academy members throw some major category nominations to the year’s more popular pics so it’s not a repeat of the last Oscars where mostly grim little-seen films were rewarded – and, for that reason and others having to do with yet another lousy telecast, ratings were the worst since Nielsen started tracking them in 1974.
Editor-in-Chief Nikki Finke - tip her here.
Loading ...
Milk will win. Academy voters will feel marginally better showing solidarity with the Gays than with a formulaic low-budget-er from an exotic locale. Sure, no one really likes Milk (beyond its target aud), and it’s a failure of the most depressing kind (ie: artistic AND commercial), but what does anyone like in Slumdog beyond the kid falling in shit and the credit sequence?
As for Frank Langella, if nothing else his nom will replace “worst nomination since Billy Bob Thornton in Sling Blade” as a conversational reference point. Too bad you have to sit through Frost/Nixon to get it.
The Directing Award is for Fincher to steal
I’m think Rourke will keep Pitt off the noms list for Best Actor.
I agree with “John Denver” regarding Slumdog. It was good; I just don’t feel it should get best movie. I think the Dark Knight holds up as a better movie front to finish. don’t get me wrong, Slumdog was beautiful and the setting was amazing… but I agree with “Cathy” that the beginning was great– the end, not so much. It reminded me a lot of the Kite Runner in that sense.
To Cathy–
I’m not saying Che wasn’t a murderer…(for that matter, did anyone care that Forrest Whitaker won for playing Idi Amin a few years ago?)
I’ve just seen many of the films this year and Benecio was amazing.
Your telling me Luke Goss as Princes Nuada in Hellboy II; is not even on the list for best supporting actor. The old tired star are nominated every year and that is why viewership is down for Oscars. It is fixed and people who actually see movies have known this for years, we do not wast there times watching the buddies gather around and slap each other on the back for voting for their drinking buddies.
Mickey Rourke gives a haunting performance that cuts through
all the other. I hope he will be judged on that and not his popularity
in Hollywood.
Specific nominee predictions
PICTURE
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Slumdog Millionaire
Milk ****
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
ACTOR
Frank Langella (Frost/Nixon) ****
Brad Pitt (Benjamin Button)
Sean Penn (Milk)
Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler)
Clint Eastwood (Gran Torino)
DIRECTOR
John Patrick Shanley (Doubt)
David Fincher (Benjamin Button)
Danny Boyle (Slumdog Millionaire) ***
Gus Van Sant (Milk)
Ron Howard (Frost/Nixon)
ACTRESS
Kate Winslet (Revolutionary Road)
Meryl Streep (Doubt) ***
Kristin Scott Thomas (I’ve Loved You So Long)
Cate Blanchett (Benjamin Button)
Melissa Leo (Frozen River)
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Philip Seymour Hoffman (Doubt)
Heath Ledger (Batman)***
—Tough to decide on other nominees —
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Viola Davis (Doubt)***
Amy Adams (Doubt) –Tough to decide on other nominees–
I sincerely hope Meryl Streep does not win an Oscar for Doubt…I found her performance over the top campy (and not i a good way)…I actually thought she was the worst part of the movie. With that said, I don’t think Cate Blanchett is a happy alternative…I’d be happier with Kate Winslet, or even Anne Hathaway.
It’s too bad that Kristin Scott Thomas isn’t getting much press for I’ve Loved You So Long … her performance is the one that sticks out in my mind most this year.
As far as best pic, I’d be happy with Slumdog Millionaire…it has it’s flaws (although it seems that this year, even more than others, all the front runners have sore-thumb flaws). What I appreciate about Slumdog is it manages to be uplifting without being your usual hollywood shlock…it seems that the indie (or indie-esque) movies are usually depressing while the happier movies are mainstream crappola..and Slumdog has avoided this.
I agree with those above who are happy for Clint Eastwood and Sean Penn to be ignored.
I guess Revolutionary Road is shaping up to be a total miss?
Shocking that two films…both political..one knocking Nixon the republican and the second honoring the gay liberal Milk are expected to be involved in the rewards.
Why don’t they give an honorary Oscar to Caroline Kennedy?
Milk. MILK? for any kind of award? A gay guy gets shot years ago in San Fran. Yup if not for the gay angle it would be nowhere. As far as Penn he is an ahole. but he is a Hollyweird ahole perfect for an award LOL…
Best Picture – Slumdog Millionaire
Best Director – Danny Boyle
Best Adapted Screenplay – Slumdog Millionaire
Best Score – Slumdog Millianaire
Best Actor – Mickey Rourke
Best Actress – Meryl Streep
Best Supporting Actor – Heath Ledger
Best Supporting Actree – Marissa Tomei
BUTTON
FINCHER
ROURKE
STREEP
So wait, they already know who is going to win? Then why send out ballots?
It will be a crime against film if Dark Knight is not at least nominated for best pic and if Nolan isn’t nominated for Best Director.
Original Joe, why does a film get degraded from “great” to “good” because it’s 15 minutes too long?
I get the feeling that it’s gonna get glossed over just because it’s Batman. Never mind the fact that is was a morality play as well as a Shakespearean-type tragedy that was prefectly executed by Nolan. I mean, if all the Academy cares about are artsy, preachy movies that only get watched by people who get paid to wattch them, then they should still be cool with TDK because it was thought-provoking AND a popcorn entertainment flick.
I’m obviously not in the same crowd as you all. I have no desire to even see the movies you’re discussing here.
I say Mamma Mia! for everything.
Who should win?
Best Picture – Slumdog Millionaire – “movie heaven”
Best Director – Danny Boyle
Best Actor – Mickey Rourke
Best Actress – Meryl Streep
Best Sup Actor- Heath Ledger
Best Sup Actreess- Marissa Tomei
Best Score – Slumdog Millionaire
Best Cinemotography – Dark Knight
Best Adapted Screenplay – Slumdog Millionaire
Best Editing – Slumdog Millionaire
Sean Penn should definitely win for Best Actor this year. MILK was one of the best movies I have seen all year and everyone in the theatre clapped at the end of the movie. Doubt was also a good movie but MILK was better.
I hope Tara is kidding about the actor from Hellboy 2 deserving a nomination… though there is some truth about the average viewer preferring to see the most deserving actors/actresses/directors nominated every year rather than the ones Hollywood feels are due.
Sometimes I feel like maybe I am zigging when the Zeitgeist is zagging. Slumdog Millionaire was a perfectly good little movie, but all the breathless critical orgasms about it are a mystery to me. I think the film is wildly overrated.
now Shawn, why so catty??? 2008 not your best year?? an Oscar for Caroline??? – however, mother Jackie, hands down Lifetime Achievement Award…
Ugh. Can you sad, right-wing brain-drains please disappear? What do you guys hope to accomplish by posting your semi-literate, misinformed, propaganda induced Pavlovian ravings? We know you’re linked here by drudge or other big $ propagandists. We think you’re idiots and representative of a pathetic fringe. If you think you will influence the “industry” by posting here you are not just stupid, but comically self-aggrandizing. Please die as a Christmas present to me.
Frank,
You’re right, conservatives should just go away. They obviously don’t go to the movies. It’s funny, but all the movies that are up for nomination will be commercial flops. Why? Because no one wants to see them. Milk + flop, Doubt = flop, Slum Dog Millionaire = flop. Look at all the anti-war movies, all flops.
Silly me, Slumdog was a smash hit, it made over 300 million world wide.
TheaterFan, A movie gets downsized, in my opinion, from great to good, because the script isn’t tight. When I say it is too long, I’m not referring to the running time, but the structure of the story.
To me, the script should have ended sooner but Nolan seemed so pleased with himself, he decided to keep going past it’s logical ending. It isn’t a tight script. To me, that means it isn’t a great film.
I think The Dark Knight is a lock for Best Picture.
Remember that all 3 Lord of the Rings films were nominated. A nomination for The Dark Knight would be the academy’s way of recognizing the huge impact comic book movies have made over the past 10 years.
That, plus the ratings it would bring in, make it a lock.
I was astounded by “The Dark Knight” After so many attempts to capture the pathos and emotion of graphic novels (O.K. – comic books) over the last few decades, I absolutely defy anyone to show me one that was done better. As a 55 year old I have enjoyed many of them, from such diverse performances as Robin Williams in “Popeye” to Christopher Reeves in Superman, or Downey Jr. in Ironman, but none of them have been as true to the original portrayal of the characters or had as much emotional punch as they were able to attain in Dark Knight. Having said that, the only fault aside from a few minutes of extra length is that the Batman character was almost pushed into the background, despite Bales great acting, by the truly astonishing performance of Heath Ledger. I feel certain that he absolutely would have been nominated, and won, even without the tragedy that befell him. What a great motion picture, and such a tour de force of Ledger to portray a sort of kaleidoscopic cartoon like character who is nonetheless genuinely scary on a level that can only be found in the darkest prisons around the world. An evil figure with a huge intellect that makes the silly Lex Luthor look like Paris Hilton. Come on folks, don’t forget the Dark Knight just because it’s been so long since it came out! Watch it again for all the marvels and magic that journeyman filmmaking coupled with great acting can achieve. “Rosebud……”
Rosemary DeWitt was better than Hathaway in RGM. She deserves a nod. But Viola Davis deserves to win. She was incredible opposite Streep in a gut wrenching scene. Penn is a lock for actor, Rourke second. Slumdog although a very good film, is overrated. The Bollywood dance ending felt tacked on to me. Wall E deserves to be in one of the 5 best pic noms, if not the winner. The lead actress category is not strong this year. I could see Winslet acting in a couple scenes i in Rev. Rd. Streep was over the top just a faint bit but I bought it and thought she made the movie. Just announce Heath as the Supp. Actor winner already. No one else even compares in that category.