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SUNDAY AM UPDATE: Here are weekend North American box office numbers:
1. Knowing (Summit) OPENER [3,332 Theaters] Wkd $24.8M
2. I Love You, Man (DW/Paramount) OPENER [2,711] Wkd $18M
3. Duplicity (Universal) OPENER [2,575] Wkd $14.4M
4. Witch Mountain (Disney) Week 1 [3,187] Wkd $13M, $44.7M
5. Watchmen (Warner Bros) Week 3 [3,510] Wkd $6.7M, $98M
6. Last House (Rogue/Uni) Week 2 [2,403] Wkd $5.9M, Cume $24M
7. Taken (Fox) Week 8 [2,661] Wkd $4.1M, Cume $133.1M
8. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox SL) Week 19 [2,067] Wkd $2.7M, Cume $137.2M
FRIDAY 10:45 PM: There are many questions waiting to be answered at the North American box office this weekend with 3 newcomers and 1 holdover spoiler at first glance. The top 3 were supposed to run in the $23M-$18M range thanks to great TV ads and marketing prowess. 
But how will March Madness lower the grosses for DreamWorks / Paramount's well-reviewed laffer I Love You, Man among younger males and females on Date Night? (The R-rated Paul Rudd starrer has been running ahead of Role Models all day.) Can older males and females alone make Summit Entertainment's cheezy actioner Knowing the No. 1 movie even though it stars Nicolas Cage? (The PG-13 pic is playing in 600+ more theaters, and Cage was cast primarily for his overseas appeal.) Have women really been craving Julia Roberts' comeback in the smug thriller Duplicity from Universal. (Or Clive Owen as her leading man, especially when his similar corporate conspiracy movie The International bombed last month.)
By Friday night, it was clear that Knowing would rule the box office Friday and for the weekend. And despite decent reviews, Duplicity's numbers looked soft, for probably only a $14M weekend, when Hollywood and even the studio expected $18+M. Playing the spoiler could be Disney's PG pairing of alien kids with Dwayne Johnson, Race To Witch Mountain, which is screening in 600+ more venues. It's having an unexpectedly good hold because close to 20% of K-12th grade schoolkids are on vacation and may pass Duplicity for No. 3. It's clear from Friday grosses that Robert's toothsome appeal has worn thin. ("If I see that laugh in one more spot for this movie, I may break my TV," one rival studio exec snarked to me.) You have to go back to Julia's 2003 chick flick Mona Lisa Smile to find a comparable underperformer. (Not adjusted for inflation or higher ticket prices, that pic opened to $11.5M for a domestic total of $63.8M. Her hit movies with a long tail at the domestic box office debuted to at least $21.6+M.) And the low-cost I Love You, Man did respectably for an R-rated pic and snagged a Cinemascore of B+. Whereas Duplicity received a C.
FRIDAY 5:30 PM: At first, there were way too many variables out there to make any definitive forecasts, and my experts certainly won't based just on today's matinees which are notoriously unreliable anyway. Early Friday guesstimates looked very much in line with my Twitter reports from Wednesday. But I now suspect any 1-2-3 order for the trio of openers -- Knowing ... I Love You, Man ... Duplicity -- isn't going to hold by Sunday.
WEEKEND ESTIMATES
1. Knowing (Summit) OPENER [3,332 Theaters] Weekend estimate $23M
2. I Love You, Man (DreamWorks/Paramount) OPENER [2,711] Wkd est $20+M
3. Witch Mountain (Disney) Week 1 [3,187] Wkd est $17M
4. Duplicity (Universal) OPENER [2,575] Wkd est $14M
5. Watchmen (Warner Bros) Week 3 [3,510] Wkd est $8.5M
FRIDAY AM: Weekend estimates by my box office gurus are looking like:
1. Knowing (Summit) OPENER [3,332 Theaters] Weekend Estimate $25M
2. I Love You, Man (DreamWorks/Paramount) OPENER [2,711] Wkd Est $20M
3. Duplicity (Universal) OPENER [2,575] Wkd Est $17M
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could someone explain how knowing is tracking so well?
Gurus? Really?
Knowing will flop.
Why didn’t they open Duplicity in more theaters? Scared that julia roberts lacked star power, this is proof, she’s still got it.
Aaron Kaplan is not a real producer why does he have a credit?
Those kids’ films can hang around forever. Too bad nobody but Disney seems to have mastered them.
Saw I Love You, Man tonight and it was funny, but nothing spectacular, so I’m basically just gruntled at its weekend.
I’m planning to get to Duplicity this weekend as well, but I’m sad to see junky nonsense like Knowing handily outgrossing smart adult films like Duplicity (I say that based on reviews and Gilroy’s track record only, of course).
“(Despite Clive Owen as the leading man?)”
Despite? How about BECAUSE. I’d shell out ten bucks to listen to him read SAG contracts. Unfortunately, with his penchant for supporting quirky/offbeat films and first time directors, it’s sometimes not much better. Re Duplicity, Clive & Julia were great, of course, but I was expecting better from Mr. Gilroy. Maybe Paul Greengrass should direct next time?
“Smug thriller” is the most succinct and accurate review of Duplicity I’ve read yet. I was disappointed. It’s no Michael Clayton.
@Jake: “mastered them”? More like mastered marketing them. Witch Mountain BLOWS. Garry Marshall should be put to sleep.
Your order is off – you have Witch Mountain outgrossing Duplicity. Therefore, you need to put Witch in the number 3 spot.
Count Chocula
Duplicity scored a D? Wow. When you get scores that bad, you have to blame writer and director Tony Gilroy more than the actors.
However, even though poor audience reaction can all be laid at Gilroy’s feet, the soft opening is all Julia.
As someone who worked at a movie theater tonight in Denver, I have a very hard time believing that “Duplicity” scored a D. With the reviews, the stars, and the filmmaker, I find this almost implausible. “Solaris” scored a D.
We had a sold out 7 o’clock show. We ask people what they thought as they are walking out. Most people liked it. Isn’t a C bad for this sort of tracking? I find this hard to believe.
“Knowing” doing well is just pathetic.
The American film audince is a lot smart than Hollywood thinks. We want a good story line, it doesn’t matter who stars, though it might help, in it.
Ha-ha, all you people shitting on “Knowing” who don’t know what you’re talking about. “Knowing” is a real surprising movie and damn good. “Cheezy actioner?” Not really – how about “science fiction epic?” Yeah, there we go.
So when are the fanboy losers going to show up to explain how Watchmen still has legs and is doing great.
You claim “Knowing” is a cheezy actioner. Love your site but you’re just wrong on this one Nikki. I wasn’t expecting much more than cheese and was pleasantly surprised by Alex Proyas’ riviting, intelligent, and very adult science-fiction film. May not be your cup of tea but it’s about as far from a cheezy actioner as you can get.
How many thrillers can one handle in less than a two month span? First taken, then the international which did pretty terribly NOW duplicity. Movie goers are burnt out on spy thrillers. Whoever chose this weekend to air duplicity should get the axe.
I would love to see Duplicity. The story’s synopsis intrigues me. Love the director. Love the way it looks through the trailers. Clive is pretty cool when he gives a shit about a role. But the only stumbling in me plunking down cash to see this movie is sorry to say, Miss Julia Roberts.
Liked Pretty Woman when it came out. But that’s it! Erin Brockovich, had to turn off in the mid section.
Roberts simply plays the same snarky wiseass with an inner heart of gold archetype over and over and over and over and over again. She’s the only actress I know that possesses this innate, and on the face of it a rather destructive ability of turning confident women into blowhard cunts that anyone with a modicum of emotional intelligence and self esteem would stay away from.
If she wants to be in the game then she needs to work with directors and actors who will challenge her safety zone. Set up a meeting with Darren Aranofsky now! Not tomorrow, not later, now!!!
There’s a reason why people love Kate Winslet, Julianne Moore, Meryl Streep, because they don’t rely on familiar tics, they’re not going for the broad strokes, they’re actually taking the time to fill in the missing pieces in creating a fully realized character. They’re not going for the archetype. They’re going for the details.
Look I know all forms of art are subjective. But in all seriousness please, can someone on this post give me a legitimate reason why this woman is so vaunted as a movie star? And don’t cite box office stats as a barometer, spare me the short cut to actual thought along with the agony of your stupidity if you do decide to cite b.o. stats. Is it the eyes? The toothy smile? The hair? Because it sure as shit ain’t the talent.
I am highly amused and made curious by the shirt the guy on the right in the I Love You, Man adverts is wearing. I’ve seen these plastered all over town and half of the “band” on his shirt consists of Pink Floyd members Nick Mason and Rick Wright…but the other half? Not David Gilmour nor Roger Waters.
I have nothing against the guy personally, but I’ve never been excited by Clive Owen in a movie. He’s sort of a better-looking Jude Law, but it doesn’t make me want to race to the movies to see “Duplicity.” When I saw the original trailer, I thought, “Why did Clooney pass?” This is a rental for me.
“Knowing” is “adult” and “epic”? How about “full of plot holes that you could drive that runaway train through”? I hadn’t read much about it before going, and I was disappointed.
I wouldn’t cross the street to see a Julia Roberts movie although I do like Clive Owens so I decided to see “KNowing”. I was pleasantly surprise that despite cheesy film critics reviews this film turned out to be a satisfying and interesting film for me. Granted the film has a few plot holes of unanswered questions like many scifI flicks do and the ending was sort of weird based on what had come before it but the performances of Cage and the young boy Chandler Canterbury was right on. Worth a look.
CinemaScore is biased toward what the ‘average’ moviegoer will want to see. Typically the Forest Gumps, etc. Intelligent one or two quad pictures will get slammed, even if a movie like DUPLICTY has legs and scores highly within its target audience. Tony Gilroy doesn’t dumb down his material for Roger Ebert and Joe Six-pack to easily comprehend, and for that I thank him.
Julia Roberts is maturing into a fine actress and evidently in full goddess mode; after seeing DUPLICITY I now know why she is a star of the first rank. Clive Owen fits the role and one can now watch him as an actor, not wincing at the sight of a male cosmetics model onscreen.
Overall a very enertaining film: urbane and efficient, with a tender underbelly that gives us enough time to take a step out of the labyrinthine spy con game, catch our breath, and delight in the romance game of the two leads and their cavernous gazes at one another. Though this film is tagged as a thriller, it has a panache and charm, a quirky, subtle sense of humor; yet a decency and dignity that wraps its arm around you like a friend and satisfies in ways Hollywood is no longer able or willing to satisfy.
Don’t be surprised if it takes home a Golden Globe Award for Best Picture. Thank you to Tony Gilroy and the cast, crew and backers.
Knowing will be a word-of-mouth sensation. It will be the anti-Watchmen. It’s an outstanding film that was totally undeserving of being kicked in the teeth by critics. The thriller aspects function expertly and then the end floors you with unexpected gravitas and resonance. The key to the sustained business will be if the word gets out about the film’s deep undercurrent of spirituality. For the life of me I can’t explain the avalance of bad reviews…maybe because of his recent career moves the reviewers have conditioned themselves to instinctively recoil at anything he’s in. Thankfully Roger Ebert didn’t miss the boat at least with his glowing 4-star rave.
Just back from a double feature:
DUPLICITY was enjoyable, but ultimately a little too twisty and overly clever for the masses (and me). I liked it, but have to admit to a little trouble following it all. Tony Gilroy did the time-switching thing much more effectively in the superb MICHAEL CLAYTON. Less was definitely more in that case. Great cast though and worth seeing. But I wouldn’t bet on strong word-of-mouth.
Maybe it’s a guilty pleasure, but I really liked I LOVE YOU, MAN, which has the trappings of an Apatow comedy, including Paul Rudd and Jason Segal. Very solid work and I found myself laughing throughout. Raunchy, but with heart, which is very much the formula these days.
A good afternoon at ther flicks…
I Love You, Man seemed more like something to enjoy when it comes out on DVD, so I rolled the dice and went to see Knowing despite the reviews, and was glad I did. I honestly just enjoyed the film, plotholes and all. Certain aspects of the ending was a little WTF, but it certainly didn’t dampen my enjoyment of anything that had come before that, and the final scenes did, I admit it, put a tear or two in my eyes.
I am shocked at all the poor reviews people are giving for KNOWING – especially from those who haven’t even watched it yet. It’s entertaining and will keep you thinking long after you walk out the theater. Not a cheap R-rated show filled with empty raunchy jokes.
The reviewer “ha ha” had it correct: It’s a sci-fi epic. Don’t let poor reviews deter you from watching this movie!
Anyone calling ‘Knowing’ ‘junky nonsense,’ as ‘Bernard’ does earlier in this comments section, clearly has no knowledge of decent cinema. Though I forgive him and you, Nikki, because, a lot of audiences and the mainstream ‘critics’ apparently have something significant against Cage now, strong enough that they’re willing to damn every movie he’s in now — even it doesn’t deserve it.
I, too, am hoping ‘Knowing’ builds some WOM for steady business — I notice you already adjusted your B.O. assessment a few million up from your ‘gurus,’ Nikki — perhaps word of mouth is already out there from preview screenings and Friday?
‘Knowing’ is a smart, engaging, and no-easy-answers thriller that is also elemental science fiction, with spectacle that always serves the narrative, and characters that all contribute directly to the plot and its numerous subtle twists. I expect no less from Proyas, one of the most consistent, patient, and under-regarded filmmakers working today (Hey, when a guy can even turn out a decent actioner under the FOX moniker, he deserves *quite* a bit of credit). By all rights, this guy should be at the top of the heap of in-demand directors these days, but I think he prefers to operate on the fringes, especially after his experience with FOX — and if he can turn out great pieces of work like ‘Knowing’ while working with Summit and independent funding, I see no reason why he would ever go back to the big studios…
He needed someone like Cage — who, though not at the peak of his career, is still a ’star’– to ’sell’ this movie, and admittedly, he’s the one thing I’d change from ‘Knowing,’ but Cage’s dry performance, even if not ideal, still enunciates the script well enough that the film works splendidly despite him.
I find great struggles in ‘Knowing’ about science vs. faith vs. belief, the same kinds of questions that were brought forth in the similarly under-the-radar ‘X-Files: I Want to Believe.’ Proyas finds a way of debating issues of faith, science, and belief in a subtle, non-argumentative, non-ideological, and non-confrontational way that should engage many semi-intelligent viewers — but most will probably not really ‘get’ this film until years later, just like ‘Dark City.’
Now on the movie Duplicity that is a real good question: why didn’t it open at more venues? One would figure that Julia Roberts would be a box office draw.
Now I saw KNOWING directed by Alex Proyas. I like the concenpt use of the numbers and the premise. Now some critics believed the filmed was flawed when it went to to his kid. As for visuals,the film is worth watching for that.
Knowing was a very very good movie. Between this movie and the Battlestar Galactica finale its been one hell of a great week for sci-fi fantasy fans…at least those of us who enjoy a good dose of the mystical thrown into the mix to keep things interesting.
as far as Knowing being “anti-Watchmen,” I greatly enjoyed both of them.
as afar as critics go, they dont have a clue. This is one of the best scif-i genre movies I have seen in a real long time. Battlestar Galactica did it for TV and Knowing has done it for the big screen.
BRAVO FOR BOTH OF THEM!
This is what I don’t understand. If Cloney, Owen, and Roberts are such big stars ,with the exception of Roberts, then why do their movies tank. They can’t open a movie and yet they still get the A list treatment. What hold do they have on Hollywood? Storyline is what makes the movie.
Saw “Knowing” on Friday and it was fantastic. Not only does it have two of the most dazzling FX sequences I’ve ever seen, it is thought-provoking and dare I say it, spiritually uplifting.
This film will do well and have legs from word of mouth.
Bravo.
It’s kinda sad Julia ended up so bad. Other than mid budget pretend indies everything is kinda craptastic.
i would have been nice that a good Julia movie did good box office numbers.
but now that Rihanna is happy to got back to her abusive Z-list boyfriend and Octomum has a new home i guess there are more entertaining stories to focus on (*eye roll*)
I LOVED “Knowing.” I live in New York City, where it was trashed by all the critics. But I’d been intrigued by it since seeing the Coming Attraction.
It was GREAT !! Had me on the edge of my seat. I remember thinking,”I haven’t enjoyed myself this much at the movies in years.” This was a 10:00 AM showing on a Sunday morning. Pretty crowded theater. You couldn’t hear a pin drop from the audience the entire time. Everyone was rapt. Lots stayed til the end of the credits- always a good sign.
I don’t understand why it was trashed. Cage is very sympathetic in this and he does some fine acting.
I don’t understand why the critics trashed Knowing. I knew it was going to be better than the critics said; I just didn’t know HOW MUCH BETTER it is. It has a real thriller of a story line, and Cage knows how to keep the audience on his side. It was a pure Hollywood entertainment film – but with some questions about faith and science. The ending was totally unexpected – and satisfying.
Also, I thought the scenes with Cage and the boy playing his son were very genuine.
Bet your bottom dollar that strong word of mouth makes this a big, big, hit.
I’m betting ‘Duplicity’ holds up well next weekend though, thanks to star appeal and overall positive critical response.
And how about that Nic Cage?? He continues to surprise as a legit box office champ.
My God, I don’t know what’s causing all the mental defects here, but KNOWING was an awful experience; it is just a sloppy assemblage of lukewarm cliches that ends up a dreadful mixture of SIGNS and the lyrics of the Styx song “Sail Away.”
My guess is people went in expecting something NATIONAL TREASURE-esque; it’ll plummet next week, something to the tune of at least 55%.
Shit floats.
LOVED Knowing and really don’t get the hate. The marketing was terrible for this movie. Made it look like a wanna be “THE NUMBER 23″ (which was awful itself) and it is so much better and so much more.
Walked out of Duplicity. Really wanted to like it; eager for a smart, adult flick but this was too self aware and had no soul. The whole movie was just cold and off putting and felt like it tried too hard to be smart and interesting. But instead it was just boring.
I think Julia needs to start taking on new types of material (assuming commercial success matters much to her) that paints her in a warmer light. She really comes off as cold and distant in much of her work these days (this, Closer, the Ocean’s movies…her work and the films she is in these days feel like cold, ultra slick, ultra modern houses…not approachable, not warm).
I was stunned how warm and attractive she was on Letterman last week…she should (again, assuming she wants a hit) project an aspect of that warmth in her work. It’s been too long since she felt like a real person you can relate to.
Granted- what the hell do I know? Like she needs my fucking career advice
Bring on da 3D cartoon next week!
David
@Alboone: Roberts simply plays the same snarky wiseass with an inner heart of gold archetype over and over and over and over and over again. She’s the only actress I know that possesses this innate, and on the face of it a rather destructive ability of turning confident women into blowhard cunts that anyone with a modicum of emotional intelligence and self esteem would stay away from.
HA!! I wouldn’t have put it quite so colorfully, but that is EXACTLY how I feel about Roberts. I can’t recall a Roberts movie where I didn’t want it to end with her getting the short end of the stick.
Saw Love You Man… It’s a rental. Maybe a ‘Live Stream’… If I’m still allowed to when it comes out on DVD, next week.
Julia Roberts does not have the same box office draw. It’s hard for me to believe Duplicity bested Witch Mountain. It will be interesting to see if the numbers were fudged by the studio.
Either way, in the second week Duplicity will drop like a rock… sorry Julia.
Julia has hit the wall. She had two babies and lost weight which makes her look older.
I love her but, it’s over.
I think that Tony Gilroy is an amazing writer and he did a great job directing ‘michael clayton.’ But, the movies that he has written in the past are intense, smart and detailed thrillers with somewhat tricky plot devices. ‘Duplicity’, on the other hand, was very tricky in its plot, but was meant to be a fun movie, a romp if you will. I think Gilroy over thought this one. And, given the times, I think that America wants a movie that is fun and doesn’t need to be thought about. This film could have been great if simplified…The best thing about the film was Paul Giamatti as a Steve Ballmer/ Jim Cramer like executive and the fight scene in the beginning.
Yeah, anon, god forbid that she is 40, gave birth twice and got her body back. Because you’d forgive her if she held onto some of that pregnancy weight, wouldn’t you? Chooch.
I saw Duplicity and i enjoyed it but my one complaint there was too much of Julia Roberts. I went to see it because of Clive Owen and Tony Gilroy. I would have been much more excited had it been a different actress.