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SUNDAY AM UPDATE: Here are weekend North American box office numbers:
1. Knowing (Summit) OPENER [3,332 Theaters] Wkd $24.8M
2. I Love You, Man (DW/Paramount) OPENER [2,711] Wkd $18M
3. Duplicity (Universal) OPENER [2,575] Wkd $14.4M
4. Witch Mountain (Disney) Week 1 [3,187] Wkd $13M, $44.7M
5. Watchmen (Warner Bros) Week 3 [3,510] Wkd $6.7M, $98M
6. Last House (Rogue/Uni) Week 2 [2,403] Wkd $5.9M, Cume $24M
7. Taken (Fox) Week 8 [2,661] Wkd $4.1M, Cume $133.1M
8. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox SL) Week 19 [2,067] Wkd $2.7M, Cume $137.2M
FRIDAY 10:45 PM: There are many questions waiting to be answered at the North American box office this weekend with 3 newcomers and 1 holdover spoiler at first glance. The top 3 were supposed to run in the $23M-$18M range thanks to great TV ads and marketing prowess. 
But how will March Madness lower the grosses for DreamWorks / Paramount’s well-reviewed laffer I Love You, Man among younger males and females on Date Night? (The R-rated Paul Rudd starrer has been running ahead of Role Models all day.) Can older males and females alone make Summit Entertainment’s cheezy actioner Knowing the No. 1 movie even though it stars Nicolas Cage? (The PG-13 pic is playing in 600+ more theaters, and Cage was cast primarily for his overseas appeal.) Have women really been craving Julia Roberts’ comeback in the smug thriller Duplicity from Universal. (Or Clive Owen as her leading man, especially when his similar corporate conspiracy movie The International bombed last month.)
By Friday night, it was clear that Knowing would rule the box office Friday and for the weekend. And despite decent reviews, Duplicity‘s numbers looked soft, for probably only a $14M weekend, when Hollywood and even the studio expected $18+M. Playing the spoiler could be Disney’s PG pairing of alien kids with Dwayne Johnson, Race To Witch Mountain, which is screening in 600+ more venues. It’s having an unexpectedly good hold because close to 20% of K-12th grade schoolkids are on vacation and may pass Duplicity for No. 3. It’s clear from Friday grosses that Robert’s toothsome appeal has worn thin. (“If I see that laugh in one more spot for this movie, I may break my TV,” one rival studio exec snarked to me.) You have to go back to Julia’s 2003 chick flick Mona Lisa Smile to find a comparable underperformer. (Not adjusted for inflation or higher ticket prices, that pic opened to $11.5M for a domestic total of $63.8M. Her hit movies with a long tail at the domestic box office debuted to at least $21.6+M.) And the low-cost I Love You, Man did respectably for an R-rated pic and snagged a Cinemascore of B+. Whereas Duplicity received a C.
FRIDAY 5:30 PM: At first, there were way too many variables out there to make any definitive forecasts, and my experts certainly won’t based just on today’s matinees which are notoriously unreliable anyway. Early Friday guesstimates looked very much in line with my Twitter reports from Wednesday. But I now suspect any 1-2-3 order for the trio of openers — Knowing … I Love You, Man … Duplicity — isn’t going to hold by Sunday.
WEEKEND ESTIMATES
1. Knowing (Summit) OPENER [3,332 Theaters] Weekend estimate $23M
2. I Love You, Man (DreamWorks/Paramount) OPENER [2,711] Wkd est $20+M
3. Witch Mountain (Disney) Week 1 [3,187] Wkd est $17M
4. Duplicity (Universal) OPENER [2,575] Wkd est $14M
5. Watchmen (Warner Bros) Week 3 [3,510] Wkd est $8.5M
FRIDAY AM: Weekend estimates by my box office gurus are looking like:
1. Knowing (Summit) OPENER [3,332 Theaters] Weekend Estimate $25M
2. I Love You, Man (DreamWorks/Paramount) OPENER [2,711] Wkd Est $20M
3. Duplicity (Universal) OPENER [2,575] Wkd Est $17M
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could someone explain how knowing is tracking so well?
Gurus? Really?
Knowing will flop.
Why didn’t they open Duplicity in more theaters? Scared that julia roberts lacked star power, this is proof, she’s still got it.
Aaron Kaplan is not a real producer why does he have a credit?
Those kids’ films can hang around forever. Too bad nobody but Disney seems to have mastered them.
Saw I Love You, Man tonight and it was funny, but nothing spectacular, so I’m basically just gruntled at its weekend.
I’m planning to get to Duplicity this weekend as well, but I’m sad to see junky nonsense like Knowing handily outgrossing smart adult films like Duplicity (I say that based on reviews and Gilroy’s track record only, of course).
“(Despite Clive Owen as the leading man?)”
Despite? How about BECAUSE. I’d shell out ten bucks to listen to him read SAG contracts. Unfortunately, with his penchant for supporting quirky/offbeat films and first time directors, it’s sometimes not much better. Re Duplicity, Clive & Julia were great, of course, but I was expecting better from Mr. Gilroy. Maybe Paul Greengrass should direct next time?
“Smug thriller” is the most succinct and accurate review of Duplicity I’ve read yet. I was disappointed. It’s no Michael Clayton.
@Jake: “mastered them”? More like mastered marketing them. Witch Mountain BLOWS. Garry Marshall should be put to sleep.
Your order is off – you have Witch Mountain outgrossing Duplicity. Therefore, you need to put Witch in the number 3 spot.
Count Chocula
Duplicity scored a D? Wow. When you get scores that bad, you have to blame writer and director Tony Gilroy more than the actors.
However, even though poor audience reaction can all be laid at Gilroy’s feet, the soft opening is all Julia.
As someone who worked at a movie theater tonight in Denver, I have a very hard time believing that “Duplicity” scored a D. With the reviews, the stars, and the filmmaker, I find this almost implausible. “Solaris” scored a D.
We had a sold out 7 o’clock show. We ask people what they thought as they are walking out. Most people liked it. Isn’t a C bad for this sort of tracking? I find this hard to believe.
“Knowing” doing well is just pathetic.
The American film audince is a lot smart than Hollywood thinks. We want a good story line, it doesn’t matter who stars, though it might help, in it.
Ha-ha, all you people shitting on “Knowing” who don’t know what you’re talking about. “Knowing” is a real surprising movie and damn good. “Cheezy actioner?” Not really – how about “science fiction epic?” Yeah, there we go.
So when are the fanboy losers going to show up to explain how Watchmen still has legs and is doing great.
You claim “Knowing” is a cheezy actioner. Love your site but you’re just wrong on this one Nikki. I wasn’t expecting much more than cheese and was pleasantly surprised by Alex Proyas’ riviting, intelligent, and very adult science-fiction film. May not be your cup of tea but it’s about as far from a cheezy actioner as you can get.
How many thrillers can one handle in less than a two month span? First taken, then the international which did pretty terribly NOW duplicity. Movie goers are burnt out on spy thrillers. Whoever chose this weekend to air duplicity should get the axe.
I would love to see Duplicity. The story’s synopsis intrigues me. Love the director. Love the way it looks through the trailers. Clive is pretty cool when he gives a shit about a role. But the only stumbling in me plunking down cash to see this movie is sorry to say, Miss Julia Roberts.
Liked Pretty Woman when it came out. But that’s it! Erin Brockovich, had to turn off in the mid section.
Roberts simply plays the same snarky wiseass with an inner heart of gold archetype over and over and over and over and over again. She’s the only actress I know that possesses this innate, and on the face of it a rather destructive ability of turning confident women into blowhard cunts that anyone with a modicum of emotional intelligence and self esteem would stay away from.
If she wants to be in the game then she needs to work with directors and actors who will challenge her safety zone. Set up a meeting with Darren Aranofsky now! Not tomorrow, not later, now!!!
There’s a reason why people love Kate Winslet, Julianne Moore, Meryl Streep, because they don’t rely on familiar tics, they’re not going for the broad strokes, they’re actually taking the time to fill in the missing pieces in creating a fully realized character. They’re not going for the archetype. They’re going for the details.
Look I know all forms of art are subjective. But in all seriousness please, can someone on this post give me a legitimate reason why this woman is so vaunted as a movie star? And don’t cite box office stats as a barometer, spare me the short cut to actual thought along with the agony of your stupidity if you do decide to cite b.o. stats. Is it the eyes? The toothy smile? The hair? Because it sure as shit ain’t the talent.
I am highly amused and made curious by the shirt the guy on the right in the I Love You, Man adverts is wearing. I’ve seen these plastered all over town and half of the “band” on his shirt consists of Pink Floyd members Nick Mason and Rick Wright…but the other half? Not David Gilmour nor Roger Waters.
I have nothing against the guy personally, but I’ve never been excited by Clive Owen in a movie. He’s sort of a better-looking Jude Law, but it doesn’t make me want to race to the movies to see “Duplicity.” When I saw the original trailer, I thought, “Why did Clooney pass?” This is a rental for me.
“Knowing” is “adult” and “epic”? How about “full of plot holes that you could drive that runaway train through”? I hadn’t read much about it before going, and I was disappointed.
I wouldn’t cross the street to see a Julia Roberts movie although I do like Clive Owens so I decided to see “KNowing”. I was pleasantly surprise that despite cheesy film critics reviews this film turned out to be a satisfying and interesting film for me. Granted the film has a few plot holes of unanswered questions like many scifI flicks do and the ending was sort of weird based on what had come before it but the performances of Cage and the young boy Chandler Canterbury was right on. Worth a look.
CinemaScore is biased toward what the ‘average’ moviegoer will want to see. Typically the Forest Gumps, etc. Intelligent one or two quad pictures will get slammed, even if a movie like DUPLICTY has legs and scores highly within its target audience. Tony Gilroy doesn’t dumb down his material for Roger Ebert and Joe Six-pack to easily comprehend, and for that I thank him.
Julia Roberts is maturing into a fine actress and evidently in full goddess mode; after seeing DUPLICITY I now know why she is a star of the first rank. Clive Owen fits the role and one can now watch him as an actor, not wincing at the sight of a male cosmetics model onscreen.
Overall a very enertaining film: urbane and efficient, with a tender underbelly that gives us enough time to take a step out of the labyrinthine spy con game, catch our breath, and delight in the romance game of the two leads and their cavernous gazes at one another. Though this film is tagged as a thriller, it has a panache and charm, a quirky, subtle sense of humor; yet a decency and dignity that wraps its arm around you like a friend and satisfies in ways Hollywood is no longer able or willing to satisfy.
Don’t be surprised if it takes home a Golden Globe Award for Best Picture. Thank you to Tony Gilroy and the cast, crew and backers.
Knowing will be a word-of-mouth sensation. It will be the anti-Watchmen. It’s an outstanding film that was totally undeserving of being kicked in the teeth by critics. The thriller aspects function expertly and then the end floors you with unexpected gravitas and resonance. The key to the sustained business will be if the word gets out about the film’s deep undercurrent of spirituality. For the life of me I can’t explain the avalance of bad reviews…maybe because of his recent career moves the reviewers have conditioned themselves to instinctively recoil at anything he’s in. Thankfully Roger Ebert didn’t miss the boat at least with his glowing 4-star rave.
Just back from a double feature:
DUPLICITY was enjoyable, but ultimately a little too twisty and overly clever for the masses (and me). I liked it, but have to admit to a little trouble following it all. Tony Gilroy did the time-switching thing much more effectively in the superb MICHAEL CLAYTON. Less was definitely more in that case. Great cast though and worth seeing. But I wouldn’t bet on strong word-of-mouth.
Maybe it’s a guilty pleasure, but I really liked I LOVE YOU, MAN, which has the trappings of an Apatow comedy, including Paul Rudd and Jason Segal. Very solid work and I found myself laughing throughout. Raunchy, but with heart, which is very much the formula these days.
A good afternoon at ther flicks…
I Love You, Man seemed more like something to enjoy when it comes out on DVD, so I rolled the dice and went to see Knowing despite the reviews, and was glad I did. I honestly just enjoyed the film, plotholes and all. Certain aspects of the ending was a little WTF, but it certainly didn’t dampen my enjoyment of anything that had come before that, and the final scenes did, I admit it, put a tear or two in my eyes.