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Twentieth Century Fox internally is projecting $70M-$75M in domestic box office gross. But there wasn’t any foaming at the mouth at Fox when I passed along that rival studios were predicting $80M for the May 1st opening weekend of its summer blockbuster X-Men Origins: Wolverine. Then again, fans are expecting a big fat debut along the order of the 2006 threequel X-Men: The Last Stand‘s $102.7M, not the 2003 sequel X-Men: United‘s $85.5M. (They cost $210+M and $110+M, respectively.) How much the film exceeds that number depends on the toll taken by all that piracy mishegoss. And whether this 4th pic in the franchise is deemed any good. For those keeping score, X-Men opened to $54.4M back in 2000.
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Perhaps they should rename the movie to:
X-Men Origins: Wolverine Verklempt
This is irrelevant: Captain Kirk rolls into town in a few weeks and will show everyone how it’s done. He’ll pick his teeth with Wolverine’s claws, smack him upside the head and proceed to bury that movie.
Star Trek will do the same to Terminator 4 as well. It’ll have 2 good weeks before Kirk laughs at the Terminators and makes them into microwaves.
I saw the bootleg and its not that bad but its nothing to really get excited over either. The beginning tips you off that this might actually have some ambition to it, but it soon dives into cliche. It feels more like a cheesy 80′s action movie where characterization is an afterthought behind the stunts and explosions. But a complex character like Wolverine deserves better. I mean this guy is even more fucked up than Bruce Wayne. When you’re watching it you can’t help but to think if the studio involved actually gave a shit then this would’ve been a classic within the genre.
I’d still check it out a matinee. But don’t expect Dark Knight quality on this one. This movie is all about the gags. Just leave your brain at the door and hopefully you’ll have a good time.
Thank god they attached the Transformers 2 trailer to it, i think 80 million is a pretty accurate guess.
Saw the movie. Will have a big opener and fizzle out with word of mouth. Course, I hope I’m wrong…
this is the gayest trailer I ever saw — i’ll see it if i get my lieb schreiber/hugh jackman love scene. seriously. come out of the closet already, hollywood! as a female screenwriter, when are all you actiony guys who love these tired “let’s run around the world, chasing the boogy men” lame-ass stories, finally gonna admit that you’re totally gay! and, um, again, wouldn’t mind it if there was a pay-off — like hot guy on guy loving!
i’ll take a well done chick flick over this lameness. pulz!
80 million is pretty much a lock, especially when you take into consideration just how well escapist, OTT movies have done this year, due to the economic situation – people want fun.
And Wolverine will be the first huge movie since F&F, which, incidentally, blew expectations out of the water. And, with Wolverine tracking at high-80s 2 weeks before opening, I wouldn’t be surprised to see it open higher than X3, in the 105-110 million region. It may very well be the year’s biggest opening weekend, now that Transformers 2 and Potter 6 are opening on Wednesday.
I’d say around 50 – 60 million opening weekend. Most people have already seen this movie. Those who have seen it, know that it sucks. And when Captain Kirk and John Connor come strolling into the multiplexes the following weekends, this movie won’t be on anyone’s radar.
I wouldn’t be surprised if it flopped… it looks crap & it takes itself way too seriously. I agree with Alboone.
Star Trek is going to break all known records. Poor Wolverine, they shouldn’t have opened so close to ST.
I think 80 million is a conservative estimate. I can easily see 100 million +.
I agree with B Hennessay. Star Trek, I think, will be the summer’s first major blockbuster. I personally don’t know anyone who’s excited about Wolverine as they’re all X-Men’ed out.
“Star Trek is going to break all known records.”
That’s retarded.
A reboot of a film series that has never really reached major hit status, a series that has extreme stigma around it, due to the name(people avoid Star Trek out of instinct, as it’s considered the geekiest thing known to man)…will break all known records…How retarded are you? 60/180 is a best case scenario.
I haven’t ran into anyone who is excited about Star Trek, granted, I haven’t been to bestbuy in two months.Personally, I don’t think Wolverine or Star Trek will be the biggest blockbuster of this year.The bootleg copy of Wolverine made me rethink seeing it,and Star Trek looks like a cross between the Star Wars prequels and that terrible new 90210.
anonrighter, if you are truly a female screenwriter, I can see why female screenwriter get little work.Like seriously, OMG, you really need to SYF.I’m like totally going to P2P my BFF about you’re SFC.
Star Trek will own. It will own folks. Over 100 mill opening weekend. At least. I’m already buying my tickets in advance.
I can totally understand the naysayers out there because the franchise, and let’s face it, has left a bad taste. This was one of those franchise properties that was literally screaming REBOOT! REBOOT! Not a fan of J.J. but I think he brought some much needed energy and excitement to the whole affair and it shows in the trailer. Battleships and adventure on distant planets? That to me defines escapist fair. And most importantly the trailer rocks!
If you can’t see that then you’re just not aware of the current pop culture temperature. This will be big.
Star Trek will NOT break all known records.
I will say in all seriousness that this film is going to cut wildly across all demographics: Hunky Kirk & Spock will bring in the tween crowd and my Dad who is 65 will be taking his wife to see it for sure – afterall he was 20 when he met the show.
It’s going to be as mainstream as it gets this year: T4 will not have that kind of demo success, nor will Wolverine. Harry Potter and Trek will be the ‘fanboy’ champs of the year for that reason.
The reboots have been working (Bond, Batman) and the zeitgeist of Trek, if Abrams hasn’t lost that, is this: everything is going to be ok, because the race of man is ok. That’s a message people want to hear right now, hopefully it’s been kept. I suspect it has, and they’ve been clever in running away from Nimoy’s appearance in the film, which is sure to win over those who never liked the shows, especially the original for being a little creepy. The Next Gen films were nothing more than 2 part TV episodes in perception (tho the Borg one was quite good). That won’t be the case here, and Trek 2009 will be the highest grossing Trek film to date, very easily.
If we’re not going to greet a new, kick ass Captain (Sullenberger/Phillips) Kirk with open arms in this day and age we never will.
Warp Factor 9, folks. Get ready!
Oh and Red, Captain Kirk will treat your 60/180 estimate like an Orion Slave Girl.
I’ll go 90/325 without even accessing my Dilithium Crystal Ball. That could be LOW.
JD, I haven’t ran into ANYONE who would be even vaguely interested in Wolverine. It baffles me as to why on Earth it got greenlighted. It is NOT going to be profitable. Mark me on this one. All this hype and estimates are based on the X-MEN films. X-MEN is not the same as WOLVERINE. Wolverine is lame, boring & the trailer SHOWS how incredibly seriously it is taking itself. My God anybody heard the score? So cliched.
Star Trek on the other hand: everybody is psyched, not just the fanboys. I have never watched more than an episode of Star Trek: Next Generation but can clearly see JJ and the folks at U got it completely right! Everybody I know is psyched about this film and if you look at the comments on Youtube you will see that your remark about ST being “the geekiest thing known to man” applies no more as more & more anti-ST people have been seduced/converted by JJ’s hot mainstream take on ST!
RE: “the geekiest thing known to man”
Seems that the poster of this comments is completely out of touch – seeing as he considers the above quote to be an insult. Get with it – case in point: THE BIG BANG THEORY.
RE: STAR TREK
Geekdom is celebrated, Mr. Yestercentury! Even those of us who aren’t Trekkies will go see it – as the ads have assured us we need no detailed prior knowledge. That’s genius. So we’ll channel our inner geek/connect with our geeky friends. I think it will do great.
Aside from that, let me point out the obvious: Hot cast (with the exception of Simon Pegg, yikes yuck eew)
RE TERMINATOR 4
Christian Bale, need we say more? I’ll watch anything with Christian Bale – even a Western! (3:10 to Yuma, which I loved) AND curious to see how ANTON YELCHIN (Charlie Bartlett) will do. It’s his year! TREK + T4
RE: WOLVERINE
I love the X-MEN franchise but was skeptical re: WOLVERINE only. Sexiest man or not, Hugh Jackman isn’t a big draw for me and the film better have more going for it. The trailer does get me interested.
It’s interesting to me how all of the Star Trek shills have come out of… nowhere(?) to hawk this film (ST). The product placement effort is as transparent as the ‘Jonas Brothers’ debacle was – and how did that turn out?
Haven’t the studios learned to tone it down to at least non-obvious levels? I’m gagging on the splendor…