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SUNDAY PM/MONDAY AM: It’s another big win for a family film after a dry spell filled with too many sci-fi movies. Twentieth Century Fox’s Night at the Museum 2: Battle Of The Smithsonian not only was the clear No. 1 at the North American box office this weekend, but also Ben Stiller’s biggest live-action opener ever. After opening to $15.3 million Friday, NATM2 received the family bump (+36%) for $20.6 million Saturday and $18.3 million Sunday to easily win the 3-day weekend with $53.5M. The pic finished the 4-day holiday with $70M, an impressive haul with so many half price kiddie tickets. Once again, Fox put together a massive global release: 4,095 theaters in North America, plus 8,100 runs in 93 territories internationally. IMAX showings generated $4.1M (8% of weekend) on 160 screens.
Museum 2 is the first all-audience comedy since Race To Witch Mountain way back in March, and Mall Cop: Paul Blart back in January. So the market was receptive to a pic that parents knew was safe for offspring. This reteaming of Ben Stiller and Owen Wilson and Robin Williams with director Shawn Levy, had to live up to the first in the franchise, which in 2007 opened at Christmastime and went on to earn $250.8M and worldwide $575M.
Museum 2 is likely to have summer legs, whereas Warner Bros’ Terminator: Salvation is already weak-kneed. The McG-directed 4th in the franchise starring Batman‘s Christian Bale is running out of steam after making $14.8 million in domestic grosses both Friday and Saturday and $12.7M Sunday for a 3-day weekend of just $43M from 3,530 venues. That’s much lower even than Watchmen‘s non-holiday opening. T4 finished with an underperforming $53.8M for the 4-day holiday, and $67.2M for the 5-day cume (including $3M from its Wednesday midnight showings and $13.5M from Thursday). Even though my box office gurus were confident Museum 2 would wind up #1, T4 “is pretty disappointing as most pundits thought it was going to win the weekend, as did most if not all of the tracking services,” a rival studio exec notes. Under and over age 25 males turned out, but the buzz turned rancid among fanboys who overwhelmingly didn’t like the pic. (Top critics didn’t either: there were only 33% positive reviews at Rotten Tomatoes). Warner Bros expected more, especially because T4 benefitted from worldwide awareness from that Christian Bale audio.
Sony is handling T4 internationally and releasing it in Asia next week but not until June for major overseas markets so as not to compete with its Angels & Demons. Domestically, that pic made $5.9M Friday and $8.3M Saturday and $7.7M Sunday, and will close in on $300M worldwide as soon as Tuesday ($286M now). It was battling for No. 3 with Paramount’s Star Trek and it was a close call: $21.8M vs $22.7M for the 3-day weekend, and $27.7M vs $29.4M for the 4-day holiday. Ron Howards’ pic has a $87.8M domestic cume while JJ Abrams’ reboot (which made $5.8M Friday and $8.7M Saturday and $8.5M Sunday) has a $191M North American cume starting its 3rd week. Rounding out the Top 5, Paramount’s spoof Dance Flick from the next generation of Wayans opened with a tepid $10.7M from 2,450 dates for the 3-day weekend, and $13.1M for the 4-day holiday.
FRIDAY 1PM: Latest estimates are that Warner Bros’ Terminator Salvation is tracking closer to Fast & Furious “but it’s going to take 5 days to get what they did in 3,” one rival studio exec notes. T4 opened with $13.5M Thursday including Wednesday’s $3M midnight shows and now looks to make $70M-$80M for the 5 days including Memorial Weekend vs Fast & Furious which did $70M in 3 days. Hollywood analysts are still insisting that Night At The Museum2: Battle Of The Smithsonian has the potential to open #1 with $80M for the 4-day holiday. But 20th Century Fox keeps insisting it’ll make $60M at most even if it does big business once the kids get out at noon today.
FRIDAY AM: Warner Bros’ Terminator Salvation chalked up domestic grosses of $13.3M from its Thursday opening, including $3M in midnight showings. The 4-day weekend estimates are now leveling out at perhaps $60M+ for this actioner and for 20th Century Fox’s Night At The Museum: Battle Of The Smithsonian.
THURSDAY 2:30PM: 20th Century Fox is saying they expect Night At The Museum: Battle Of The Smithsonian and Warner Bros’ Terminator: Salvation to be about neck-and-neck with $55M-$60M for the 4-day holiday. The studio even thinks Museum 2 could come in 2nd behind Terminator 4. But rival studios and my own box office gurus think Museum 2 will be #1 with $85M by the end of the long weekend. We’ll see…
THURSDAY NOON: Get ready for a mammoth Memorial Day weekend at the domestic and foreign box office. But you knew that already. By Monday night, 20th Century Fox’s sequel Night At The Museum: Battle Of The Smithsonian should round up the family sample to end No. 1 with an estimated $85 million for the 4-day holiday.
Warner Bros’ Terminator: Salvation already brought in $3 million from its midnight showings and should end Sunday with an estimated $60M for the 4-day holiday and a $75 cume for the 5-day. It looks big with males under and over age 25 but “I wish them luck with female moviegoers,” snarks a rival studio exec. “There hasn’t been anything shown that should convince a female to go see the movie.” There’s also a lot of fanboy chatter since Harry Knowles’ review eviscerated T4 on his Ain’t It Cool News. The combo of Bale and director McG is new so hard to compare their pic with the franchise starring Arnold Schwarzenegger. But 1984′s T1 did $38.3M domestic and $78M worldwide, 1991′s T2 did $204.8M/$519M, and 2003′s T3 did $150.3M/$433M.
Studios expect Sony’s Angels & Demons after one week, and Paramount’s Star Trek reboot after two weeks, to be neck-and-neck for the weekend. Expect an estimated $25M apiece for the 4-day holiday. And, rounding out the Top 5 will be the Damien Wayans-directed spoof Dance Flick which features a genuinely funny trailer . Playing in 2,450 dates, it could finish the 4-day holiday with $15M.
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That’s only half of Indy Jones IV’s Thursday, and 1/3rd of Matrix Revolution.
That’s not good folks…our second under-performer of the month?
Huge Terminator fan from back in the day, but T4 is pretty weak on character and plot. It’s as if the script depends upon you caring about the character simply because you already cared about them from the previously seen T movies. The FX were big for sure but nothing that really wowed me in terms of cleverness or anything… McG just had a bunch of $ to blow it up good. All in all, didn’t suck, but not good…
re: Christian Bale and T4…is it true that any publicity is good publicity? I am mildly interested in this franchise but don’t want to see the movie because Bale is a dick.
Not a good opening day.
But it’s also not too surprising.
T3 was promoted as Arnold’s big comeback (to his iconic role, no less) and yet it didn’t exactly set the box office on fire. Now, six years later, we have a sequel with no original stars and a talent roster that includes McG and the writers of Catwoman. In addition to the terrible reviews, even the “positive” ones say things like “It’s not good, but it’s not THAT bad.”
So what am I missing here?
Why is everyone acting like this film MUST succeed? Have we really become this desperate to see every franchise continue at any cost?
My frustration with T4 is that the original script by Ferris and Brancato was inspired smart fun – especially when compared to most tentpole wannabes. Really, it was. But that was before the round of million dollar phone-in jobs – including an unreadable non-dramatic mess from Haggis – took their toll. Add the always calm Bale and eager to please McG to the mix and the story went off the rails. Of course, most reviewers (Other than Denby and Lane, are there really any more film critics?!) don’t know the back story so instead, blame the writers.
And when it comes to critics… it was disturbing to read Roger Ebert’s admission that he’s never even seen TERMINATOR. That is a seminal film and he’s had decades to watch it. LAME.
T4 was just a series of explosions. It basically has nothing to do with the previous Terminator movies, it’s just a gimmick to lure audience based on the past success of T1 and T2. It really didn’t seem like a complete film, very crudely edited, huge plot holes, no chracter development, etc. The word of mouth should be bad on this, I heard a lot of people badmouthing the film as they left.
Comment by Doc Michaels – “One thing I know, is that it’s not nearly as bad as Harry Knowles claims it is — in fact he’s lost all credibility with his pissing all over this movie as far as I’m concerned. Not that he had much of it before, either, but that site is firmly in bed with certain filmmakers and studios, I have no doubt now about that.”
Totall agree with you on that point.
Fine you want a thrill ride, I get it, special efx, things that go BOOM! Terminator 1&2&3 were polished B-movie rollercoasters, but at least you gave a shit about the people in peril. Movies like this are no different then watching a Fouth of July fireworks display. This movie will be totally forgotten by next week. Just doesn’t have any legs. I wouldn’t even call it a B movie, that would be too kind. More like a C plus flick with Grade A efx reels.
Terminator is done. Move on folks.
Well, I went to see what DAN says is my choice of “Brainless entertainment”, T4, last night and came away thinking although this was grim and humorless it was a dazzling thrill ride. Oh, I suppose having Arnold Schwarzenegger running around naked as a bad robot was funny and guys, MOON BloodGood is one hot hot number. As for those that say they didn’t like it because it didn’t have character development, LOL, DUH, evidently they being buying into those negative film critics reviews OR THEY HAVEN’T SEEN THE OTHER THREE MOVIES THAT introduced the characters except for Marcus Wright and pretty MUCH EXPLAINS WHAT IS GOING ON IN THIS FILM. Anyway final consensus is ” brainless, mindless, relentless action sequences”, an excellent Sam Worthington, Anton Yelchin and Moon BloodGood, making for a decent enjoyable summer popcorn action thrill ride.
WOLVERINE & STAR TREK WERE BOTH GREAT MOVIES. LETS STOP WITH THE HATE. FOR GOODNESS SAKES ITS ONLY MOVIES.
I WILL ALSO BE SEEING BOTH NATM2 AND T4. PERSONALLY I NEVER HAD A BETTER SUMMER EXPERIENCING MOVIES THAT INTEREST ME, DAMN THE CRITICS.
cant wait for Drag Moi to Hell AND THEN TRANS2 TO PUT THE ICING & GI-JOE TO PUT THE CHERRY, ON THE SUMMER MOVIE CAKE.
life is too serious, devisive & dangerous folks already…..
…..so why not get upset about something more important like world peace? ya know? hmmm?
I’ve got an idea – how about the Brothers at War documentary for this Memorial Day weekend!
Alboone, I liked T4 because I have already seen all the other films a hundred times so I don’t NEED character development for everyone who was important. The only one who really needed to be developed in T4 was Marcus Wright, and since he was the main character I felt he was because by movie’s end he rediscovered his belief of what being a human means.
Oh and Dan, don’t worry about it. It’s just that I see so many posts on this site with “holier than thou” attitudes when it comes to movie tastes that it gets really grating.
Yea i saw terminator and dance flick today, and i actually liked both. terminator 2 is still the best of the terminator series, but salvation is a decent watch. Dance Flick, unlike the past horrible spoof movies that came out in the last 3 years, was ACTUALLY funny—i guess the Wayans family should be the only people who do spoof movies.
I just saw Terminator…or I should say I went and walked out past the midpoint of the movie. It had ZERO story. I was bored to tears. It was soooo disappointing because I was looking so forward to this movie. You CANNOT just have 106 minutes of repetitive explosions with no story. No character developement. I blame none of the actors. They were fine. The script was devoid of any soul or much of anything else. We know McG can shoot great action sequences, but how about a story to go along with it? The sound was beyond ear splitting and one action sequence at a 7-11 went on for about half and hour. It got to the point where I was yawning and wishing I could hear some dialogue. Flop. Flop. Flop.
T4 = Bomb!
$15.5m Friday and might miss $60m for the 4-day frame.
Can someone explain the reasoning why Hollywood studios attempt to push over-inflated estimates for rival studios films?
Is it just fodder for industry insiders for bragging rights?
Or do they honestly think national attendance figures in subsequent weekends will drop because some movie only did 75% of original (inflated) estimates…and somehow the movie-going public will hear that stat and conclude the movie isn’t all that good and skip it?
Or something else?
I get that reasonable people can reasonably disagree on things, but I just can’t for the life of me understand how anyone could have left T4 feeling satisfied! It was the freaking Phantom Menace of the Terminator franchise!!
I’ve heard others say that it looked pretty but that it had no soul and I couldn’t agree more. It’s like: who cares what happens to any of these characters (except maybe Worthington, but what a crappy, idiotic ending for his character).
Bale: decent acting, but how did Connor go from the Nick Stahl that we last saw to this guy?
Bryce Dallas: jesus, how can someone who presumably doesn’t use botox yet be so f*cking expressionless?? Why didn’t they stick with Claire Danes?? She gave such a great performance in T3.
Moon Bloodgood: was it just me, or were her teeth like REALLY white? I kept on thinking of that one Friends episode where Ross’ teeth glow in the dark from having been overly-bleached.
Effects: fine, but effects were never what made the series great, it was the characters! Even T2 with it’s ground-breaking (at the time) effects relied on character development to propel the story.
Conclusion: I know now, why you cry. Because T4 really was THAT bad.
I actually thought T3 was a lot better than T4. T4 was just soulless.
Worthington was quite solid though and it’s hard to complain being able to look at Moon Bloodgood for a while. But overall, not satisfied.
Museum was entertaining. Amy Adams is as charming as they get.
I have really mixed feelings about the movie. Worthington was great, and his character was the only dramatic weight moving this movie. But that’s not enough. There are so many plot holes, inconsistencies, and outright terminator blasphemy going on in the film. The scriptwriters ought to be publicly flogged for tarnishing what could have been a much better movie. Never have I found myself to be so critical of a movie’s plot before. That said, it was technically perfect. Minimum noticeable CGI (maybe hollywood is getting the hint that we HATE that stuff), and everything visual and audible was fantastic. I think McG might have given this movie most of its redeeming qualities. It’s a fantastic looking film. But goddamn those screenwriters.
“My point was that critics understand a film better than you or me…”
Haven’t met many critics, have you?
Critics are just screenwriters who never made it.
I get plenty of them in my classes at USC.
Looks like Terminator brings in a four day of just $56m and a five day of $69m? Under $70m in five days!? I guess word set in early about how bad it is.
Night at the Museum should win the 4-day battle with about $65-66m, nearly equal to what Terminator took five days to bring in. Good for Fox, bad for WB.
WB did a fantastic job marketing, so can we all just blame McG already?
T4 is very bad. Bale screams all his lines and the film actual star is a complete unknown in a transparent role and he’s just okay. Bryce Dallas Howard just stands around looking confused with too much makeup for a post-apocalyptic woman.
McG rips off Alien (natch) Transformers and Road Warrior and not well.
Word of mouth will kill this turd by Monday.
I think this well is dry.
Hey, I know let’s get JJ Abrams to remake the original and set it in a alternate time line!
To: Kevin
RE: G**damn those screenwriters
Do you know how the system works?! As with most studio blockbuster-hopefuls, the TERMINATOR SALVATION credited screenwriters were cut out of the process by the studio execs, director and star who all think they’re better storytellers. These same brainiacs paid millions in re-write fees to writers who didn’t care about the franchise or its mythology as much as they cared about getting a quick big dollar payday. The process was excruciating and the screenwriters should not be blamed. Their original script had surprises, soul, heart, great action and fun. If you can, read it before damning the wrong people.
This is just sad. Terminator Salvation is by far the best thing out there right now. Audiences just want family crap any more. Audiences seem to think that the less thinking involved the better. I’m not saying Terminator is a big thinker but at least it has some subtext and messages in there. What does Night At The Musuem have to offer except the same crap as the first. Oh yeah this time they are in a bigger musuem? Give me a break. I just think it’s sad that Wolverine makes tons of money and was terrible. Then you have Star Trek, which was fun, but incredibly over rated. People just seem to have bad tastes these days. I wish it was 20 years ago again back when people actually knew what quality was.
Saw ST again for the 2nd time in Santa Monica. The theatre was packed. It is still pulling in good crowds. Crowd reaction is very positive with the laughs and “oohs” at the right time. This movie will last for a while yet.