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UPDATE: That’s as of this morning, according to the big online movie ticketseller Fandango. MovieTickets.com says Avatar currently accounts for 70% of all its ticket sales this week and is reporting 350 sold out Avatar performances. Both services say between 68%-78% ticket buyers are male. And that 75%-89% of all Avatar ticket sales are for 3-D or IMAX 3-D screenings.
Fandango also just surveyed more than 2,000 Avatar ticket-buyers and found:
* 76% consider themselves fans of James Cameron
* 45% say that “James Cameron’s return as a director” was the main draw
* 72% say the positive advance reviews have increased their interest in the movie
* 70% say they do not care about the film’s budget
* 72% had seen STAR TREK in theaters
* 62% had seen TRANSFORMERS: REVENGE OF THE FALLEN in theaters
* 48% had seen TERMINATOR SALVATION in theaters
* 15% are ages 18-24
* 37% are ages 25-34
* 33% are ages 35-49
Editor-in-Chief Nikki Finke - tip her here.
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Forget the hype! This movie is a bust!
Let’s wait until it comes out before we gloat in our own prognostications, huh?
DarkNight — can you expand on your comment? Why do you say this movie is a ‘bust’?
looks like u were wrong, way wrong.
$200M opening guaranteed
Another 2009 film with big early box office and no legs?
most likely, but given how successful Titanic was, just because this thing looks like a super-dumb script+story with hundreds of millions in eye candy to make up for it doesn’t mean it’s going to tank…or to take another example, we all know Phantom Menace was an awful movie but it still made scads of dough
Hahaha gotta love the comment above by “Dark Night”
Batman’s going down!
And if Titanic is ever going down in the forseeable future (domestically) I’d say Avatar has the best chance of being the metaphorical iceberg.
Can’t wait to see it at midnight at Universal Citiwalk!
This movie sounds like it is going to be solid and visually pleasing as heck, but those who think this movie is going to beat Dark Knight and Titanic box office wise are going to be very disappointed. I’m not sure when box office and quality started to go hand in hand, but it seems the case with many fanboys.
The movie will enjoy a nice opening weekend for itself, I think the real test is next weekend when Sherlock Holmes drops.
Avatar can only be considered a bust thanks to the enormous budget and other costs.
The majority of the gross will be on 3D screens. None of those screens will go anywhere when Sherlock Holmes opens. And, if the news of the IMAX sales in London are any indication, I’m sure you can expect another 2 or 3 weeks of consistent sell outs over the weekend.
You know I’m really excited about this movie, but people are seriously deluding themselves if they think this is going to be the supreme blockbuster of the aughts. James Cameron is enourmously talented craftsmen of the spectacle. But his crutch is his dialogue and his male characters, which usually tend to be shit. If the characters are not there, then it just won’t have the legs. Myself I’m hoping that’s not the case.
“Forget the hype! This movie is a bust!”
with insight like that…….you’ll go far!
Those demographics and sell-out numbers are not very good; you’re not getting to $300 million domestic gross with scienfic fiction fanboys.
Compare it to something truly massive like Dark Knight:
http://www.deadline.com/hollywood/dark-knight-sold-out-sold-out-sold-out/
“Fandango COO Rick Butler says: “Friday is pacing to be our biggest ticket-selling day in company history. It’s very possible that we’ll break our hourly ticketing record by tomorrow morning.” Currently, Dark Knight represents 94% of ticket sales on Fandango.com, the nation’s leading movie ticketing destination.
As of 12PM today, MovieTickets.com already has over 1,600 performances sold out in North America, including over 300 in LA and NY alone. Warner Bros sources tell me that Imax has 1,600 shows in all U.S. screens for this weekend’s opening. As of 5PM Wednesday, 1,400 of those shows were sold out.”
Believe the hype! This movie’s great!
It most certainly is not a bust. A rip-roaring adventure of spectacular visuals and a surprisingly moving story. The haters can’t win. This movie rocks.
Story? What story?
Dances with Blue Na’vis, or what?
I’m bummed that JC has taken 10 years to make this film at a cost of $500 million dollars only to have had the story told again and again and again by other directors, other actors, and for a lot less money.
The story is the same ol’-same ol’: bad technology vs. good environmentalism, bad people vs. good natives.
Let’s see: there was dances with wolves that did the bad people vs. noble natives and I challenge people to give me a film that isn’t bad technology vs. good environmentalism/good natives.
Wake up!!!!!
EVERY MOVIE has this story line for the last 10 years.
The only difference I can spot with this movie is the special effects.
And those stats tell you alot:
17% of 18-24 have bought tickets for opening weekend.
OK. That’s really low percentage wise. Normally the 18-24 crowd is the key group that carries a movie as they go back to see it over and over and over.
Next up is: 25-34 years of age at 37%.
So instead of 6 year difference in ages in the above stat, they had to go 9 years to get a solid 37%. These people will see the movie 1x.
Finally you have the 35-49 years of age at 33%.
Wow! They had to group 14 years of age difference together to come up with another 30+ percentage number. Again, these people will go 1x.
Not saying it won’t be a good popcorn movie and have its moment in the sun, but its a flash in the pan type movie that will be seen 1x for the experience of the ride and then forgotten.
Think of what $500 million dollars could have done for so many of the unemployed and underfed. Instead it was wasted on blue people trying to keep their planet from being overrun by nasty white people.
What a waste of money on a film that takes us away from the realities of life when that money could have been spent so much better.
And what is Cameron doing with his profits? It better be going to charity at this point seeing as how he’s raked it in for the last 30 years.
What are the predictions for this movie this weekend? What number does Fox hope and pray for in the next couple days?
-writer boy
I know many people very cautious about this movie and are not going opening weekend, wanting to know what the word of mouth is. I say this will open in the high $60M to low $70M, possibly $68M-74M. I would say $55M, but due to the higher ticketing prices for 3D and IMAX, it will make a difference because that is the format this movie is supposed to be seen in.
However, unlike most sci-fi flicks, I see this having very nice legs and minimal drops, possibly topping the frame next week and the week after as long as SHERLOCK HOLMES does not do extraordinarily amazing.
I know that I’m not going to see Avatar after all the hype, all the marketing, buying the HFPA award for best picture, and so on, especially the product placement in my favorite series “Bones”… that was the clincher for me.
That said, Avatar will do great numbers, but it won’t be profitable, and it won’t have legs. At upwards of $400 million to make, Avatar will be lucky to hit $300 million domestically. Nothing to sneeze at with numbers like that, but if it disapears after two to three weeks in release, well then that will say a lot.
Internationally, I expect Avatar to do well in Asia, especially in Japan. I’m not sure how the Europeans are going to regard it. And certainly native uprisings are not something Middle East countries want to encourage.
Avatar will pay for itself. The technology will be useful in the future of filmmaking. But the movie itself will not be remembered for its story or presence. It will be remembered for pushing the envelope of technology.
And I suppose that’s not so bad.
Honestly, I see Avatar as being a bust in every sense of the word. Expect this to hurt James Cameron’s career as this movie will not have legs according to wnd.com. In addition, the dialog is likely horrible at best while the fanboys will be loving scene after scene of special effects.
Terminator 2 and Titanic both had success because they told a good story. They were also laden with special effects that were costly, but not all scenes had them. Especially Titanic since you can’t really ruin a boat of that size without major loss of life unless you have the equipment to do so.
My prediction is that “Avatar” will make just over $55 to $65 million this weekend, make “Waterworld” look like a major success, and smash the record for the number of comments in a single post due to Nikki’s post making Drudge.
I’ll see it soon after it releases (not a midnight showing though). I trust that Cameron will do a good job.
However, I think that mainstream audiences will be put off by the uncanny valley effect. It seems that photo realistic animation puts people off and it costs a huge amount of money. Animation is seen as a children’s format outside of Japan.
Luckily, there have been few guy movies out there lately. And women will go to guy movies, they just won’t buy tickets in advance. Given that it’s James Cameron, it will be a guy picture that has at least one well-crafted female character.
I’d say $90 to $100 million opening weekend against $250 million total domestic. If it was live action $110 to $130 million opening weekend against $350 million total domestic.
No one thinks this is going to do $90-100 except for some delusional kids on CHUD. Your best comp is probably I Am Legend, which had a bigger release, was much shorter, and had a much stronger marketing campaign and awareness.
I’d say $65 million versus Legend’s $72, taking away some gross for pure screen minutes and adding some back in for the more expensive tickets with all the 3D and IMAX formats Avatar will play at.
As a zombie movie, I’m not entirely sure that they’re comparable. I am Legend was up against Alvin and the Chipmunks, which had a $40+ opening. Unless people are spending two weeks away for Christmas (in this economy), it’s too far ahead of Christmas to get involved in family matters. And teenagers are going to want to get away from their parents. What are teenagers going to watch this weekend? Princess and the Frog did ok last weekend, but I don’t think anyone except a girl under 10 is keen on it. The Blindside has been out for a while, the people who go to opening weekend will have already seen it. The number of people who are unsure whether to go to Did you Hear About the Morgans or Avatar can be counted on one hand.
Weak competition from very different films, kids/college students who are pretty much done for the year in terms of school and the fact that there hasn’t been any decent action films for a while. If there had been some half decent guy movies in the last month, I would agree with you. Ninja Assassin looked like a bad video game. Armored was ignored. Even if you count 2012 as a guy movie, it was released on Novemeber 13th.
I Am Legend wasn’t a “zombie movie.” It was a Will Smith blockbuster action-adventure – or at least, that’s how it was marketed. Your milage may vary.
Return of the King opened similar (if you take it per-day to account for the midweek opening) despite being almost twice as long as Legend, but anyone who thinks Avatar can compete with that monster is totally out of their mind.
cameron’s female characters all tend to be men with breasts, that’s what nerds like
While we already shelled out for Friday night at the Arclight, whether the film is great, good or so-so, I’m betting less than $212 million domestic. There are too many things to do during this time of year and this film is not a must (for “regular” folks).
I got my tickets a week ago and will be seeing it Saturday. I’m also looking forward to seeing the new Alice in Wonderland trailer on the IMAX screen.
I just saw it. Jealousy really makes one blind, doesn’t it? It was the best film experience I’ve had in many years. Everyone in the theatre loved it, this movie will have STRONG legs.
Haters, stop being such losers and join the winning team!
A different take on an issue or a movie is not “hate”…
So who are you working for? Fox or Cameron?
This movie looks truly awful.
Heads will roll.
Usually don’t fall for the hype but I do want to see this movie, even though the storyline sounds like DANCES WITH WOLVES.
It’s a delicious and deeply enlightening spectacle to see all these haters foaming in the mouth with their pathetic envy and bitterness willing to sell their sorry ass souls for just a flicker of hope of seeing Cameron fail. How sad to go through life as one of these losers. Get a life, and a job and some dignity. If you don’t like Avatar, which is all fine, go see something else or read a book or go for a walk. I mean, c’mon, what does all this frenzy of hating say about you? I’m no Cameron lover and I guess I’ll see Avatar in DVD, but I see no need to insult and wish anybody to fail just to compensate for my own failings in life. You can’t win this battle. The problem is not the camerons of the world, or the avatars. The problem is you, and deep down you know it. Sad…
Isn’t this site supposed to be for “those in the know” in the internet biz? Then why is that it appears NONE OF YOU READ THE TRADES?! Or any other internet site for that matter?
Even the most jaded of film critics (ie. Kenneth Turran, a self-acknowledged anti-Cameron) has bent over backwards to rave about the movie… for chrissakes, Manhola F*ing Dargis loved it, and she can’t stand anything.
Dances With Wolves. Ferngully. Blue Smurfs. You haters reuse the same material over and over in your witless attempts at scorning the movie.
Dances With Wolves wasn’t original. It’s an ARCHETYPE you morons. Filmmakers have been working it with 20 years before, and they’ll rework it 20 years after Avatar. You idiots have no sense of film history or of history period.
You’re the same morons who went and saw Transformers 2 for the eye candy (putting money in Michael Bays pocket so he can shove it up strippers ya-yos), yet when a director tries to give you eye candy on the level of a groundbreaking, immersive experience + story, you try to crap all over him.
I predict a mildly successful opening weekend — and then, something you never see — repeat, growing business due to the positive word of mouth. This isn’t a movie, it’s an experience.
At Christmas, this is the kind of movie you want to see — to escape — to another flippin’ world.
You all reek of cynicism. You should stop reading jaded movie sites and get out of your one bedroom apartment more.
Have you know sense of film history? Have you no true sense of Cameron’s achievements in MULTIPLE films up to this point?
I’m seeing it Saturday and will probably well up with tears several times — not necessarily for the story, but for being a part of an experience we get in movies what… every 10 or 20 years? Something truly special, something that pushes the envelope in a game-changing way.
Just bought a ticket to see the 12:01 here at my local theater and they’re telling me it’s only at 50% and there were no lines like Twilight and Dark Knight (this is an LA suburb) so I’m guessing it isn’t the big deal everyone thought it was.
But hey, I want to see the special effects and this way I can decide for myself if it is any good.
I love the comment about this killing Cameron’s career if it bombs. The guy makes one flick every 10 years or so so what career is it gonna kill? Besides unless this movie has Pluto Nash numbers (and it won’t) Cameron is still way ahead for the industry even if this one doesn’t get it’s money back.
Saw it last night in IMAX. Visually stunning. Plot and characters hollow. Literally felt like I was playing a video game while watching it. I’m still trying to decide if thats a good thing or a bad thing. After the audience reaction last night I can say with certainty that this is not going anywhere near TDK grosses. Best case scenario: 300 mill. Maybe I’m being too kind?