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SUNDAY AM WRITETHRU: It’s official: 20th Century Fox’s week-old Avatar fell behind Friday, but was back on top Saturday, and easily beat Warner Bros’ newcomer Sherlock Holmes for No. 1 this 3-day Christmas weekend in North American theaters. As usual, the Hollywood box office experts (who had predicted this to me last week but I doubted them) were right on the money. Avatar‘s take was $23.5M Friday and $28.5M Saturday for the $75M weekend with Sunday’s estimate. As for Sherlock Holmes‘ numbers, the Guy Ritchie directed mystery thriller with Robert Downey Jr and Jude Law made $24.8M Friday and $22.5M Saturday for a slightly less than expected $66M weekend –though Sherlock is playing in 170 more theaters than Avatar, 3,626 vs 3,456.
The 3D technopic’s higher ticket prices made up the difference and more. The contest wasn’t even close after Friday looked like a nailbiter, especially after Sherlock consistently was tracking big because of the good word-of-mouth buzz. Sherlock had the best Christmas Day debut ever (beating Marley And Me from last year and its Christmas Day single-day debut of $14.675M). It’s also a badly needed hit for producer Joel Silver after studio boss Jeff Robinov took a big chance putting him on the project after all of Joel’s recent bombs. Warner Bros domestic grosses crossed $2 billion Saturday, breaking the industry record of $1.789B set by the studio last year. And there’s still more days of holiday play time left to fatten the record.
Updated numbers from overseas for Avatar show James Cameron’s big budget epic has made at least $212.2M domestic, $405M foreign (after taking in $145M from 14,844 screens in 108 countries this weekend), for a new cume of $617M worldwide. IMAX broke all its records as the giant format earned $12.1 million globally this weekend alone. Avatar‘s weekend result comes despite theater closures in many markets on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. The film is #1 in 107 of 108 markets (#2 in India, behind a local title). Avatar is already the biggest Fox title off all-time in Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Vietnam.
Meanwhile, with 2009 total box office already over $10.3 billion, Hollywood just keeps breaking records at the box office. (Though none are adjusted for inflation, ticket prices, etc.) This was the top grossing weekend of all time as Friday-Saturday-Sunday (estimated) looks to make $278M, which easily smashes the previous record of $260.8M held by July 18th-20th, 2008 when pics like The Dark Knight, Hancock, Mamma Mia, Hellboy 2, and Journey To The Center Of The Earth, were playing. The fact that Christmas Day landed on a Friday this year certainly boosted the entire industry since Friday is the second biggest movie-going day of the week. The total single-day gross for all films on Friday is estimated at a record-breaking $91M, easily besting last year’s $75M Christmas day single-day Thursday gross.
Asw for other films, Fox’s Alvin And The Chipmunks: The Squeakquel opened big Wednesday then showed a huge Saturday matinee bounce. It debuted with a $50.2M weekend and a $77M five-day holiday. Overseas, Alvin 2 made $36.5M from 6,482 screens in 22 markets. (That’s 261% of the Alvin 1 opening in the same markets.)
Universal’s battle of the (s)exes It’s Complicated from Nancy Meyers opened Christmas Day with a respectable amount for an adult comedy. Based on the pattern of her previous films and the weekend’s heated competition, the studio thought a debut in the high teens was only possible but it managed $22.1M. The pic received a CinemaScore of “A-”. Exit polling showed the audience was 72% female, and 75% over the age of 30. Problem is this movie was greenlit for a ridiculous $80M budget by Uni’s previous management (Marc Shmuger and David Linde were fired this fall) so don’t expect the people in charge now to do handstands, especially after what’s been a lousy year for the studio.
There was a race for No. 5 between George Clooney and Sandra Bullock. But Paramount’s expanded release of Up In The Air finished with $11.75M while Warner Bros’ six-week holdover The Blind Side ended with $11.73M.
The Weinstein Co’s Nine was the miss of this weekend: only $5.5M after expanding into 1,412 theaters when Hollywood was expecting at least $9M. Seriously, who did Harvey think would see this very sexy (therefore very heterosexual) musical? Though it grabbed Golden Globe nominations, it can’t grab an audience which may hurt it come Oscars. What a miscalculation, especially when many other TWC films were put on hold to focus on it.
Here’s the Top 10:
1. Avatar (Fox) Week 2 – Cume $212.2M
Wed $16.4M [3,456 runs], Thurs $11.3M, Fri $23.5M, Sat $28.5M, Wkd $75M
2. Sherlock Holmes (Warner Bros) NEW
Fri $24.8M [3,626], Sat $22.5M, Wkd $65.3M
3. Alvin & Chipmunks: The Squeakquel (Fox) NEW – Cume $77M
Wed $19M [3,700], Thurs $8M (-57%), Fri $14.5M, Sat $20.4M, Wkd $50.2M
4. It’s Complicated (Universal) NEW
Fri $7.5M [2,886], Sat $8.4M, Wkd $22.1M
5. Up In The Air (Paramount) Week 4 – Cume $24.5M
Wed $1.7M [1,895], Thurs $1.7M, Fri $3.6M, Sat $4.3M, Wkd $11.75M
6. Blind Side (Alcon/Warner Bros) Week 6 – Cume $184.3M
Wed $2.2M [2,766 runs], Thurs $1.5M, Fri $3.3M, Sat $4.3M, Wkd $11.73M
7. Princess And The Frog (Disney) Week 5 – Cume $63.3M
Wed $2.4M [3,475 runs], Thurs $1.4M, Fri $2.02M, Sat $3.9M, Wkd $8.6M
8. Nine (The Weinstein Co) Week 2 – Cume $5.9M
Fri $2.05M [1,412], Sat $1.8M, Wkd $5.5M
9. Did You Hear About The Morgans? (Sony) Week 2 – Cume $15.5M
Wed $1.0M [2,718], Thurs $665K, Fri $1.5M, Sat $1.9M, Wkd $5M
10. Invictus (Warner Bros) Week 3 – Cume $23.3M
Wed $800K [2,160], Thurs $705K, Fri $1.3M, Sat $1.6M, Wkd $4.3M
Limited Runs
3 Idiots (Big Pictures) NEW – Cume $2.1M
Fri $655M [120], Sat $525K, Wkd $1.6M
Brothers (Relativity/Lionsgate) Week 3 – Cume $25.3M
Fri $400K [858], Sat $460K, Wkd $1.2M
Precious (Lionsgate) Week 8 – Cume $41.7M
Fri $217K [629], Sat $220K, Wkd $830K
The Young Victoria (Apparition) Week 2 – Cume $886K
Fri $174K [163], Wkd $603K
The Road (The Weinstein Co) Week 5 – Cume $5.8M
Fri $120K [311], Sat $178K, Wkd $429K
Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus (Sony Classics) NEW
Fri $117K [43], Wkd $129M
Fantastic Mr. Fox (Fox) Week 7 – Cume $18.3M
Fri $106K [197], Sat $147K, Wkd $365K
A Single Man (The Weinstein Co) Week 3 – Cume $891K
Fri $96K [46], Sat $130K, Wkd $323K
Crazy Heart (Fox Searchlight) Week 2 – Cume $320K
Fri $54K [12], Sat $55.1K, Wkd $156K
Lovely Bones (Paramount) Week 3 – Cume $273K
Fri $13K [3], Sat $14K, Wkd $38K
Editor-in-Chief Nikki Finke - tip her here.
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Wow! And Princess and the Frog is getting killed.
Incredible for Avatar. It will definitely beat the Chipmunks over the weekend now, as well as Sherlock, on its way to $60+m.
Nope. Just attended a 1:20 showing of “Sherlock Holmes” at the same multiplex where we saw “Avatar” yesterday. The large-screen auditorium (500+) where it was showing filled up, and there was a crowd of people waiting to get in to that screen when we got out.
I suspect that “Sherlock Holmes” will blow “Avatar” away this weekend. ..bruce..
Uh, care to change your prediction there Bruce? You still have time, the weekend ain’t over yet.
Ok, so Sherlock Holmes might still win the weekend, but blow away Avatar? If Holmes wins, it will only be by $1-$3 million. Maybe “blow away” is the wrong term…How about…”Gently brush aside”?
Avatar’s new box office:
Domestic: $250,419,951 34.5%
+ Foreign: $476,192,825 65.5%
= Worldwide: $726,612,776
It has now surpassed Up in 12 days.
Next: Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince
Transformer’s 2
Anyone who thinks Avatar will even scratch $600 domestic is living with the fairies. Like all action movies, it’s a front heavy product. It will do monster business for it’s first three weeks then gradually disintegrate. Titanic had cross generational appeal – kids, teenagers, adults, grandparents, all hauled themselves to the theater, because they knew it was spectacle based on a well known historic event (and the DiCaprio factor added perhaps $800m). Avatar’s legs remain to be seen, but once the holiday period is over don’t expect to see moms and grandpas queing up around the block. And Fox poured in close to $500m (production costs and marketing) so while Avatars numbers are great for most films, it is actually underperforming on it’s own terms.
Actually I have a long memory and at the time Titanic was in theaters the trades and all the news credited the teen girls who went to see the movie over and over and over and over again bringing along their friends. Girls made that movie the success it was.
To say that girls made Titanic the success it became is seriously under-rating what a great film Titanic actually is and its massive appeal. As the other poster stated, it appealed to people of all ages. I remember everyone, and I do mean everyone, wanted to see that film; it was the film to see in 1997 and 1998. Guys went for the special effects and to see people get thrown from the ship, and girls went for that combined with the romance. We had never seen special effects like that at the time (the ship looked so damn real), nor such an engrossing love story. The story-telling was great, it had haunting voice music, and that power ballad “My Heart Will Go On” by Celine Dion. It had everything going for it. Its 14 Oscar nominations and 11 Oscar wins clearly shows that not only teenage girls loved that James Cameron’s Titanic. If its success could simply be attributed to a guy being good-looking, then Brad Pitt’s movies would have grossed 1 billion by now, and the same with the Twilight saga films. No, James Cameron is simply a great story-teller.
Yeah… a bit over a 1/10 of a billion dollars does kinda suck…
Willknowsbest,
Although I don’t agree with you about Avatar being “front heavy”, I do agree that Avatar won’t come close to Titanic’s numbers. Especially if you take inflation into account.
If Titanic came out today and sold the same amount of tickets it did back in 97-98, it would make over $900 million domestically.
So, yes, you are correct about that.
But as far as Avatar being front heavy, no one can say that after what it posted in its second weekend and what it will post in its third weekend. True, it will drop pretty big in its fourth weekend, but that’s normal for the first weekend after the New Year’s weekend in any year. And it will still be number one for that fourth weekend anyway.
Yes, it won’t beat Titanic’s $600 million domestically, but it will beat Return Of The King’s $1.1 billion worldwide total.
In the end that’s all that will matter to the studio and to Cameron. And you can’t say that its underperforming when its the second biggest grossing movie worldwide.
wow, you are not exactly nostrodomus, now are you?
Avatar wins again. I take nothing away from Sherlock. It had an outstanding weekend and there will be at least two sequels if RDJ’s up for them. But Avatar is a phenomenon, showing better legs than any blockbuster since Titanic. As I predicted Wednesday night when this thread began, Avatar will finish #1 domestic for 2009 and #2 of all time worldwide. $450 million domestic and $1.3 billion worldwide are very much in play.
The only reason the Avi-dud movie is beating Sherlock Holmes is because it’s being shown in 3 or 4 theaters, while Sherlock Holmes is only being shown in 2. Everyone wants to see Sherlock Holmes, but it’s been sold out so they have to take the Avi-dud movie or else go home without seeing anything. Bogus. Sherlock Holmes should be showing in the 3 or 4 theaters. This whole Avi-dud thing is a hoax. It’s a real dud.
Clearly someone hasn’t actually seen Avatar. Around here, it’s only showing on 2 screens, and is still playing to sold out houses a week after release with people lining up around the building for it. Nobody I know gives a fat rip about Sherlock Holmes, and it’s the one with the 3 screens playing and no lines to speak of.
To coin a phrase my dear fellow; “It`s element” (nope,won`t go there.) Holmes & Downey are known & enjoyed internationally. Along w/Sir Arthurs books & Rathbones early films, it holds a fine baked in market. It`ll be just fine vs this Teddy Ruxpin flicker & viewed forever on its own merit. The Vegas Sports Book should add this bullshit Kentucky Derby aspect of film making to their repertoire. ….new $$$$`s always attractive. It would be like taking candy from a Cameron.
“The only reason the Avi-dud movie is beating Sherlock Holmes is because it’s being shown in 3 or 4 theaters, while Sherlock Holmes is only being shown in 2.”
Actually, according to the article above, Sherlock is showing in 170 more theaters than Avatar and Avatar is still beating it soundly.
I dont mean to take anything away from the Holmes movie (love Robert Downey) but Avatar is a movie event…..its the reason we all go to movies…to see something spectacular and amazing. Good word-of-mouth is only giving it better legs.
Only real factor working against it (and all these holiday movies) is the bad weather last weekend and this weekend.
I saw Avatar and took my grandson with me. We both loved it, viewing the 3D version. Avatar is no dud.
Avi-dud….gee that’s clever and oh so creative. I think it’s also quite amusing that you think you can assume all of the cinemas in America are doing the same thing as the one you saw Sherlock holmes in. Btw, avi-dud sounds nothing like avatar. You shouldve gone with Ava-tard.
In one Utica NY theater, Avitar was showing on three 200 seat screens and yet the prime time showings still sold out. Sherlock Holmes, only showing on one 400 seat theater was doing well, but not selling out. just to give some on-the-ground observations rather than (my movie is better than your movie) hype. I am not surprised by the results of this weekends box office.
Did you even read the article?
Holmes was playing MORE screens than Avatar.
Actually, Sherlock Holmes is showing in more theaters than Avatar domestically.
But Avatar is still making more money.
I have an idea, since you couldn’t see Sherlock Holmes because it was sold out, go see it next weekend. Maybe you can help it beat Avatar so that Avatar won’t be number one for three weekends in a row.
I don’t think you actually read the article. Actually, SHERLOCK is on more screens (3626 vs 3456, first paragraph of article). However, since the theaters are charging more for the 3D version, that is driving its box office take upward…
Wrong.
What a ;prediction!
Avitar – Yes – great special effects, but this is definitely an overdose of Left Wing Hollywood propaganda. An epic battle on another planet between the U.S. Marines & Big Business on one side(portrayed as murdering, braindead idiots) and tree-hugging natives on the other side. As the movie ends, the tree-hugging natives have routed the Marines and sent what’s left of them and their free enterprise allies back to their “dying planet” (Earth).
Has anyone noticed that Hollywood has not the guts to place a spotlight on the REAL evildoers in this world? Islamic Facisits!
USA_First_Vince
Very happy for Sherlock. It’s a terrific fun movie, much better than i expected. And obviously, RDJ deserve all the blessing that he gets now.
Having scene NINE twice already, I almost feel there’s a conspiracy of critic wanna be filmmakers out there. It really burn my britches to read some of the scathing comments from the press. I remember seeing NINE on Broadway in 1982 with Raul Julia and then again a few years back with Antonio Banderas. This movie has it it all and even a bit more than the stage productions. NINE is a 9+ and should be experienced with an audience; what a treat the Castro in SF is going to get this weekend!
I don’t think I’ve seen any posts on here for anyone that has seen Avatar more than once…And you’ve seen Nine twice already? Good for you.
I thought about seeing Nine, but I have to admit that the previews and the reviews turned me off. I liked both Chicago and Moulin Rouge, but I’m not too excited about this one. Maybe it’s because Penelope Cruz and her nose is in it.
An annoying actress is also why I wouldn’t want to see “It’s Complicated”. I can not stand Meryl Streep!
I will probably see Nine on DVD though.
My bf and I saw Avatar on Wednesday night and were blown away by it. He’s 34, I’m 28– definetely not angsty teens here– we are going to see it again at an IMAX at 430 today. Sci Fi or not, it’s just a good movie and is so visually lush and gorgeous, we can’t wait to see it again. It was just flat out cool.
I didn’t love Avatar the way that you did, but right after seeing it, I told my girlfriend that we definetely have to see it on IMAX. If there ever was a movie to see on IMAX, this one is it!
Why not make available for sale a DVD of the movie you go see? Especially new releases. Put demos of upcoming features, background stuff of the film, etc….. You get the idea…
It seems it is ready-made market.
I really thought the chipmunk movie would break all records. We’re really living in a squirrelly world. LOL
My 13 year old daughter and I saw Avatar and thought that it was really worth the money. Good entertainment for the price.
The Blind Side and Invictus were the best Movies of the year so far.
I couldn’t disagree more. As a matter of fact, I think Avatar is the worst film I’ve seen in 10 years and I attend 3-4 movies per week. What a letdown for my whole familily!
I have it atop my “Worst Films of the Decade List.”
My wife and I enjoyed Avatar and Sherlock Homes. We flipped a coin to decide which one to watch first. Avatar on Christmas day and Sherlock Holmes the next day. I’m sure both will be very successful.
as usual, your box office report — with the ‘insider background’ is the best on the net. it’s so fabulous to get investigative reporting where every other sit just piles on the numbers.
thanks
phb
journalist and author
I saw Avatar this week in 3D. While I was amazed at the effects and 3D in general, I found the story was definitely copied from Dances With Wolves.
I think the real question here is, “What went wrong with the Princess and the Frog Rollout”?
I have a small daughter. For months, we would go to the Disney Princess site to see Tiana, the princess from that movie, and the section would be under construction.
Then, Disney put the movie out in limited release, and had all the reviews come out two or three weeks before most children could go see the movie.
The people who made Alvin just did the ordinary hack thing. They flooded kids with TV ads and shoved the movie out there, and they’re doing great.
Moral: when you’re marketing a movie to 6-year-olds, don’t try to get too fancy. Don’t start by releasing the film in five high-falutin’ theaters to build word of mouth. Just shove the movie out there and run a lot of ads.
It’s in it’s fifth week….any common-sensed person understands that in the later weeks, the numbers go down…it’s surprising that it’s still pulling in as much as it is. people are dumb on this site GEEZ!
Fifth week for what? Avatar just opened last Friday (Dec 18th).
NINE was the cork in the hole of the sinking WeinsteinCo boat. It’s BuhBye to “I’m a wanna-be Italian even if it kills me and my company” Fatty and his twisted troll brother.
Having half of Inglorious, along with the first dollar payouts they had to negotiate on IB, they’re gonna be closing shop by Summer. Count on it.
Oh, did anyone see “The Road”?? Perhaps they can run it along with NINE at the dollar houses.
Karma is king.
I wonder why some people are so enthusiastic about the lower than hoped for boxoffice of Princess and the Frog? Is there some reason they want it to do poorly?
avatar was pocahontas on acid.
Everyone keeps saying Avatar is a remake of “Dances with Wolves”. If you watch the children’s movie “Ferngully”, then you will see that Avatar is Ferngully in cgi.
moviewatcher
My daughter and I went to see Avatar last week with high expectations. Although it certainly had great special effects, I was very disappointed with the amount of profane banter by the characters. It detracted from the story and ensured I do not take my younger children. I can only surmise the writers ran out of script material. Very disappointing for this customer!
This is all very well, and hugely hyped-up (as only Hollywood can), but surely, wer should look at actual BOTTOMS ON SEATS? Notwithstanding the hike in ticket prices – especially those for 3D (and UP was only actually 50/50 true 3D folks!) spex – then what are we REALLY looking at in REAL terms. That’s what I’D like to know…
Incredible for Avatar. It will definitely beat the Chipmunks over the weekend now, as well as Sherlock, on its way to $60+m. Transformers 2 domestic and Return of the King international are going down. Jim Cameron will have the top 2 films of all time.
uhmmm….
‘Alvin 2′ Beats ‘Avatar’
what are we missing here????
You are missing that Alvin 2 is more family friendly than Avatar. Kids are out of school, and parents are shopping. While hipster development executives might want to see marines get impaled with poison arrows, parents in Peoria want their kids to see something that doesn’t give them nightmares.
Lesson:
Good family films make money.
Paul
AVATAR has been making 16mil a day without blinking an eye. I think thats pretty good. That will teach the Drudge crowd to take a chill pill and enjoy the movie.
What you’re missing is the increased negative reviews from people who are tired of worn-out themes such as “bad military,” “Bad Big Business,” and the Gaia fallacy (the pathetic conceit using nature as a philosophical whore). Avatar is a marvelously technicized movie, but, basically, it’s Ferngully without the wit of Robin Williams. Hence, people are flocking to a witty, well-acted new take on a classic, instead.
…he said on December 26th before knowing that “Avatar” beat both of them and has made over six hundred and seventeen million dollars in ten days.
lol
Based on the numbers so far, I’d be amazed if any of what you said transpires. Titanic’s slow and steady accumulations week to week were propelled by multiple repeat viewings, particularly by teen aged girls, and that movie also played extremely well in all age groups, not the usual cinema going crowd. Avatar is a sci-fi movie, yes the spectacle is amazing, specially in 3-D but it won’t get the repeat viewers or broad appeal that Titanic did. And Transformers 2 already had a base of interest as it was a sequel and many people who didn’t see it in theaters later rented or owned it on DVD/Blu-ray.
I just can’t see Avatar making $400m domestically, let alone push past $1 billion worldwide (based on theater returns alone).
@Dax
FAIL
Titanic Numbers for the same time 12 years ago was 3.57 Million (down 40% from 6 Million on Tuesday)
and Avatar in the same circumstances (December release) GONE UP few % ..
So far Avatar showing better numbers than Titanic did 12 years ago.(check boxofficemojo.com)Im talking about repetative viewings.
Check Twitter and Facebook, not sci-fi lovers raving about this movie.. Avatar surprisingly have wide appeal to all age groups, to males and females.
This is Fact!
Trolls and Haters
You really have to learn how to Deal with it!
Avatar is phenomenal!
@henry
Good grief! I suggest you forget about Avatar for a while and take some Ativan.
Once you’ve calmed down, think back to your college days if you’ve reached that far in your development and realize that you need to account for different variables while you’re evaluating any data, two of which I outlined in my original post. Then, go back to boxofficemojo.com and look up how long it took Titanic to get to $100m, $150m and $200m. Compare that with the recent Harry Potter movies, and Twilight: New Moon (which will be lucky to end on $300 million) and get back to me.
Making a direct day-number comparison for different movies as evidence of how a movie will do is silly.
As for me hating on Avatar, you make assumptions that are not even hinted at in my post. I thought it was phenomenal as well, but I don’t think box office numbers are a yardstick for how good a movie is. I was simply responding to an earlier post which said Avatar would end up with over $400 domestically and beat Return of the King worldwide (1.1 billion). I disagree.
By the way, I thought Cache, The Headless Woman, Broken Embraces and Moon were all better movies than Avatar. Go see how much business they did at the box office.
Oh, and Merry Christmas!
Considering it’s been #1 for 2 weeks now and has already made nearly $620 million dollars in 10 days…it’s going to get over a billion worldwide – easily. It hasn’t even opened in Japan and some other countries yet.
Haven’t heard from you in a while Dax…Still think that Avatar will make less than $400 million domestically and less than $1.1 billion worldwide?
You actually used frontloaded Harry Potter and New Moon to argue your point! You were already miscalculating Avatar’s potential by doing that. Everyone knows that any Harry Potter or Twilight movie will be more frontloaded that 80% of movies!
If you look at the numbers, Transformers 2, Harry Potter 6 and New Moon all made about 50% of their total gross by the end of their first weekend:
Transformerts 2: $200 million after first weekend (5 day total due to movie opening on Wednesday). Ended with $402 million – Opening 5 days = 49.7% of total.
Harry Potter 6: $158 million after first weekend (also 5 day total). Ended with $301 million – Opening 5 days = 52.4% of total.
New Moon: $142 million after first weekend (3 day total). Will end around $287-$290 million – Opening 3 days = About 49% of total.
Avatar: $77 million after first weekend (3 day total). Currently stands at $212 million after 10 days – Opening 3 days = 36.3% of total, so far.
For argument’s sake, lets say Avatar makes only $400 million. That would mean that the opening weekend only made up 19.25% of the final gross!
Though, I also agree with you about Avatar not being the best movie of the year. I wouldn’t even call it phenomenal. Ok, the special effects are phenomenal, but in the end I just felt a little disappointed.
In fact, now that I think about it, I was actually pretty much disappointed with most of the movies I saw this year in the theater.
Dax has a point about the teenage girls. Question is, does Avatar pull the same kind of repeat viewings from geeks? The buzz around the 3D version of Avatar is the X-factor. Henry has a point about Avatar numbers thus far, but really, the jury’s still out.
I agree it’s really a great experience seeing it in 3D, despite any quibbles I have with the movie itself.
But ALL of you are crazy even trying to relate it to Titanic’s earning pattern. You just can’t compare the day to day box office of Titanic with anything else, whether this holds on and makes 400 domestic or doesn’t…
You are aware that movie tickets are more expensive compared to 12 years ago. Hence, even if “Avatar” makes as much “Titanic,” the number of PEOPLE who’ve seen the former film still wouldn’t be are high.
So, Dax’s skepticism is justified.
Here’s what baffles me: why are some people so freaked out by the possibility that Cameron’s latest film won’t be the biggest domestic hit of all time>
@ henry
You are of course added in inflation right? And the fact that movies cost nearly twice as much to see in theaters now than they did 12 years ago. Those two elements make your numbers worthless.
Just so you know you posted this same diatribe twice in the same comments section, that would make YOU the troll. A troll full of epic FAIL.
Thanks for reposting the same thing, maybe you can respond to every post today with this Henry.
@henry
So, you’re actually comparing X-mas box office totals on a film that most likely will not beat Alvin and Chipmunks this weekend to a film that dominated for half a year at the BO?
Do you know anything about how the box office works? Yesterday most kids were at home anticipating Santa’s arrival and starting this weekend parents and kids will be flocking to Alvin. Also, Christmas box office totals are all inflated which is why so many films get released at this time. Believe me when the holidays are over BO office will go down as they always do and Avatar will go down as well. It won’t have the legs of Titanic or even the Hangover. But it will have the benefit of some serious Christmas cash behind it and will probably make 250 mil domestic and twice as much foreign.
LMAO Bill and Dax. Learn to read box office trends. estimating 250 total domestic now is asinine
You are a moron. $250 million domestic?. Yes, that will be it’s total…by the middle of next week.
I’m with you Jake…LOL
Only $250 million? Maybe if Cameron decided to pull the movie out of theaters before next weekend…HAHAHAHA
Really? It won’t? It made 75/77ths of its opening frame the 2nd weekend. #1 by a mile over SH. Which looks great btw. The real question is what motivates a person to hate something before it comes out, hope for its failure, talk down its success at all? Why do that? What about you needs for it to fail? Do you dislike Cameron’s ego? He still is an incredible artist trying to make something with all his talent and ability. Does that merit wanting him to fail? What about all the people who work on something like that? Should they also fail because you hate it? or ‘hype’?
If you don’t want to be sold something, move to a country that bans advertising. Our culture is suffused with hype for idiocy on every airwave, on every billboard. That a film actually ends up (by most accounts, not saying all) living up to a great deal of that hype ought to make us happy. And it has and that’s why people are flocking to the theater. People who don’t really even go to the movies are seeing it. So…I think the haters should just say they got this wrong and go back to whatever it is they do, hate the Hobbit or whatever next project of great industry and hard work they want to hate.
I agree. I see Avatar hitting over a billion dollars when all are said and done. This movie is just incredible and people will watch it over and over again. I don’t know how anyone can dislike this movie. The genius behind it should just be appreciated. The extra $3 that I paid to watch this movie in 3D was sure worth it and I would go see it again next week.
In my opinion this is the best movie ever made in terms of its creativity and imagination.
I’m 48 year old guy and I to say I loved Avatar would be an understatement. Cammeron has taken my 13 year old sci/fi fantasties and put them up on the screen. I’m addicted to this movie. I saw it for the 5th time yesterday and I’m not done yet. Everytime I find someone interested in seeing it I say come with me I’ll see it again. I’m not even close to being done yet. This movies got plenty of legs plus it hasn’t opened in China or Japan. Check out the international numbers after the first week of January.
Then prepare to be amazed. I’ve researched this extensively. Avatar will easily go over a billion, making at least $1.15 billion and very likely more. It has already made $381.6m in its first six days, and of course now has had an amazing Christmas Eve hold. Just compare Avatar’s pace to that of other blockbuster films. Its legs have been extraordinary, unlike anything since Titanic. Will it beat Titanic? No, but it will come closer than anything ever has.
@Jake
Not sure where you got the $250 million figure, but I didn’t say it. Its pretty clear Avatar will make that domestically, and probably beat Harry Potter’s $302 million for second place. I just don’t think it’ll overtake Transformers 2′s $402 million for first place domestically for 2009.
@faraci
Admittedly, I shouldn’t have used the word “amazed” for the possibility of Avatar’s worldwide gross beating Return of the King’s 1.1 billion. There are very few things that actually amaze me in life (the intelligence of dolphins or how Dick Cheney manages to sleep at night, being a couple), that the chance that Avatar will end up the second highest grossing movie of all time is decidedly not one of them.
Having said that, I would be surprised if Avatar reaches a billion. I can counter the figure of $381m you quote for its first six days by pointing out that Half Blood Prince had generated $450 worldwide in its first three days of release, and that movie ended up just shy of $930m worldwide. Plus that was an established worldwide franchise that garnered millions in places like Turkey and Singapore.
I don’t know what kind of “extensive research” you are alluding to for your confidence in what you state, because the box-office evidence doesn’t support it. Titanic’s box-office numbers and trends are a complete outlier. Take that movie out of the equation, and the the other nine movies that account for the top 10 highest-grossing movies of all time are all sequels of established franchises (in fact, 16 of the top 20 highest grossers are sequels).
Based on that fact alone, I think it would be a major achievement if Avatar ends up in the top ten all-time. Couple of things that could be advantageous to Avatar’s final gross that a lot of the other highest grossing movies could not benefit from are the increased revenues from IMAX showings, and the fact that Avatar will be one of the few Hollywood movies accepted for release in China this year.
Of course you may be be proved right, and we are all speculating based on how we read the trends and data. But if you are proved right, it is not because there is any hard evidence or precedence to support your claim; it would be because Avatar would join Titanic as the exception to the established rules, and if that happens we can then try to figure out the reasons behind it.
Oh Dax, Titanic is not the only exception to the rule.
For instance, let’s look at some independent hits that came out after Titanic:
My Big Fat Greek Wedding – Officially opened with $3 million…Went on to make $241 million.
Juno – Opened with $10 million…Went on to make $143 million.
Slumdog Millionaire – Opened with $4 million…Went on to make $141 million.
And all of these movies had a lot bigger uphill battle than Titanic did. They had to start without the exposure that Titanic opened with.
Ok, so those aren’t blockbuster type movies like Titanic? Ok, let’s look at blockbuster type movies that had the word of mouth.
Night At The Musuem – Opened with $30 million…Went on to make $250 million.
Shrek – Opened with $42 million…Went on to make $267 million.
The Blind Side – Opened with $34 million…Went on to make $200 million+.
What do all these movies have in common with Titanic and Avatar? WORD OF MOUTH.
Even going back to movies in the 70′s, 80′s and 90′s. Hits like Star Wars and Jaws and E.T. and Raiders Of The Lost Ark and Jurassic Park and Forrest Gump and Ghostbusters and Home Alone…The list goes on and on! All these major hits were helped by WORD OF MOUTH.
Yes, these days word of mouth usually doesn’t get going like it used to, but when it does, movies like The Blind Side, The Hangover and Avatar benefit. It becomes movies that people have to see!
I know there are some idiots on here that say that Avatar will beat Titanic…Well, they are wrong (Especially when you take inflation into account).
But Avatar had the benefit of starting off great, and now word of mouth is also kicking in.
In the end Avatar is going to be a gigantic hit, including being in the Top 10 domestically as well as the second highest grossing movie worldwide.
I’m with you Faraci. To a certain degree.
I know that Avatar will make $1.15 billion or more. I actually think it will make $1.25-$1.3 billion worldwide.
I do, however, doubt that it would make more than The Dark Knight domestically. After all, once the holiday season is over, movies do tend to drop significantly.
I’m not saying that its impossible. After all, movies just this past year point to a change in the trends of January and February box office returns. Just look at Paul Blart: Annoying Cop…Or Taken…Or even Gran Tarino (which made $143 million of its $148 million in 2009).
Of course, Titanic did also manage to make over $300 million through the slow January and February months of 1998…LOL
I guess we will have to wait and see. Word of mouth is certainly making Avatar a $400 million movie, and maybe it will carry it out all the way to $500 million.
It will be fun to see how high it will end up on the all time list.
It will also be fun to see if any of these idiots that predict Avatar will make only $250 million will post on here anymore…hahaha
So what you’re saying is Avatar will beat The Dark Knight? I doubt it.
@Will – I only said Avatar would beat TDK worldwide, and it will, handily.
@Dax – it has been obvious for a week that Avatar would pass a billion, and obvious for 5 days – hence my declaration of it in this thread 5 days ago – that Avatar would beat Transformers 2 domestic and finish #2 of all-time worldwide. As usual it is taking the lazy and incompetent media a while catch up, but at this point it’s hard to see how anyone can ignore the numbers for much longer.
The research I refer to is simply looking at the box office data, comparing Avatar’s pace to that of past blockbusters. Your comparison to HP’s quick start is highly flawed. Avatar is a completely different film. It’s not a frontloaded sequel like HP. It’s an original film showing exceptional legs due to extraordinary word of mouth.
http://boxofficemojo.com/intl/weekend/?yr=2009&wk=30&p=.htm
http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=harrypotter6.htm
Avatar vs. Harry Potter 6 through their 2nd weekends:
HP6 589.4M WW, 103.8M WW 2nd weekend
Avatar 617M WW, 220.0M WW 2nd weekend
And Avatar has yet to open in China or Italy yet, whereas HP6 had only yet to open in Greece. It’s no contest. Avatar will obliterate HP6, and obviously everything else as well, except Titanic.
My prediction is that Avatar makes $100 in the Thursday – Sunday frame over New Year’s.
That puts it at $370 million after what, 17 days?
It may not pass Dark Knight but it will get darn close, and my prediction is for 1.3 Billion worldwide.
It’s a monster.
if it hit another 70+ million week end, it’s almost a certainty that it’ll beat TDK domestically.
Have you talked to many people who have seen it? Almost everyone I have spoken to has already seen it multiple times! I’ve even seen it twice! It’s not your notmal 3d run of the mill movie, it’s a whole new experience! Weather you like military movies or science fiction or romance, it’s got a little bit of everything thus its mass appeal. That’s why it is ruling the box office, and thats why i have no doubt it will be the 4th movie to hit that 1 billion dollar mark.
Pro-tip to FOX: Never put out two tentpoles less than a week apart from one another.
They’re not really catering to the same audience, though. I can’t wait for every anti-Avatar partisan to come out and cheer that Alvin and the Chipmunks topped it Wednesday as if it’s some kind of failure… keep in mind they’re only $3 million apart, Avatar has been out, it doesn’t really benefit from schools being out, etc. The real failure here is Princess and the Frog, which got one-twoed here and is now all but dead.
I would hardly call “Alvin” a tentpole. Besides, Fox doesn’t care if they release two within a week. It’s more money for them. It’s like a little box office monopoly.
A sequel to a movie that grossed 200 million dollars in the US and 400 million worldwide isn’t a tentpole because…?
Pro-tip to FOX: Never listen to D.Z., since if you did you wouldn’t be having back to back smashes right now.
What nonsense D.Z. It’s a genius move. CM2 and AV are diametrically opposed demos. No kids will see Av and no adults will see CM2 unless taking kids. Fox have nailed it.
Chimpmunks 2 qualifies as a “tentpole”?
Shoot me.
Another tip to Fox – the guy who just posted that said with 100% absolute certainty that ‘Avatar’ would not make more than $130 million at the box office, as of last Thursday. His current prediction is definitely not more than $450. He also apparently thinks that having two movies that are both doing huge business at the same time is a bad idea. So you probably don’t want to listen to him.
Alvin is shorter and in (slightly) more theaters than Avatar. (And how many of those Avatar theaters are 3-D? As it’s not worth seeing in 2-D.)
Strange about the Disney Princess movie not doing better. Did they promote it as much as they usually do this kind of thing? I thought it was the first “Disney Princess” movie to come out since they started using the Disney Princesses as a brand and so I thought it would do gangbusters. Really hope race has nothing to do with it.
If it’s not worth seeing in 2D, I’ll probably never see Avatar.
Your loss, then. I watched Avatar first in 2-D on the opening day for a super-cheap $5 matinee and was blown away by how great the VFX looked onscreen. Caught it a second time Xmas Eve in full 3-D on a terrific screen for an $8.75 matinee and enjoyed it once again, but I honestly could have been just fine seeing it only in 2-D, as the level of detail presented onscreen was stunning in either situation.
It had a little too much romance for my 9 year old and her friend who very much looked forward to it: and no appeal at all for boys.
Wrong. I sat next to a 7 year old boy who sat at the edge of his seat for most of the movie. The children will identify the romance of the movie with their parents. The movie has a theme of good versus evil which chldren identify quickly. Anyway, if you think about it Life is a Romance.
Sorry, Mr. Cameron. No “Titanic” numbers for you this time.
@Ron
FAIL
Titanic Numbers for the same time 12 years ago was 3.57 Million (down 40% from 6 Million on Tuesday)
and Avatar in the same circumstances (December release) GONE UP few % ..
Trolls
Deal with it!
Avatar is phenomenal!
You obviously know that “Titanic” is the most successful movie of all time. I don’t think anyone expects this movie to be THAT successful. Steven Spielberg has had quite a respectable career without ever topping “E.T. The Extra-Terrestrial.”
Henry,
If Titanic and Avatar were the same film in the same time and space of the zeitgeist, you might have a point, but they are very different films. Avatar is great, but I seriously doubt that it will garner the same repeat viewings and audience that Titanic did. The Titanic audience would rather see Twilight. The Avatar audience will be playing on their home consoles with the new games they get tomorrow.
Paul
Are you controlling for inflation? For IMAX ticket premiums? For number of theaters? No? “FAIL.” There is no way Avatar comes close to Titanic numbers, nor will it make its money back on US domestic gross alone (Titanic’s domestic tripled its negative). Sure, its going to make a lot of money, but it won’t double its negative, and considering how much it cost and how long it took to make, anything short of that is a failure.
I do agree with you somewhat Asuka.
Although, in the end, Avatar will not be a failure. Yes, it will only make back a few million more than it cost to produce and market domestically, but once you factor in grosses overseas and DVD sales, the studio will be very happy.
As I stated before, Avatar has to make $700-$800 million to break even. If it only makes around $400 million domestically, it does seem impossible. But, it will make more than $800 million overseas.
So, if the movie makes $1.2 billion worldwide, and the theaters take their 50% cut, the studio will get back about $600 million. So, a $400 million investment becomes a $200 million profit. And that’s before DVD sales. I’m sure even you can agree that a $200 million profit is not a failure.
True, it’s not the profit that Titanic brought it, but its not bad. I’m sure any studio would be happy with that kind of return.
Hey winner, do you typically use “Fail” and “Troll” in your daily life (assuming your daily life consists of actual social interaction OFF the computer)?
When they get your order at McDonald’s wrong, do you go to the counter and yell “Fail!”?
As for your analysis: Get a clue on the LONGEVITY of Titanic’s ability to continue to bring in an audience. Avatar’s been out for all of 6 days and change and you’re claiming some kind of… What… Victory? Do you have money personally invested in the film or are you pulling for it as if it were some kind of sports franchise because you have friends (unlikely) and family involved?
Try talking to people off a computer and you’ll find what they really think. I don’t need Twitter and Facebook to show me what the public’s interest is. The initial interest was there, but haven’t met anyone that’s interested in seeing it again.
You have no idea what you’re typing about and you need to make tangible friends.
This is Fact!
I find it incredible that Avatar has been making around 16 mil a day since Monday. I still havent seen it because I have been busy. But I will catch it Saturday finally in IMAX 3D.
And who would have thought that “The Blind Side” would have still been pulling in over $2M a day in its sixth week?
Avatar’s 16 million for 3 straight days hardly makes “Alvin” the top story. Is there some bad blood between you and Cameron?
Actually, having two big movies open at the same time seems to have paid off for Fox: $35 million in ticket sales in one day between the two films? I’d say the strategy works.
I still see avatar winning the weekend and the week. Alvin may win Xmas day because of kids
I agree, Avatar will have an AMAZING second weekend. This thing is a beast and I couldn’t be more happy. For this kind of film, it totally deserves all the attention and then some.
Avatar grossing 48.3 million on Mon-Wednesday is insane. For Wednesday you have to factor in that it played like a vacation day with no schools the following day. Avatar only 3 mil behind is overwhelming geared to the 18-45. Expect Alvin to dip on Thursday and Avatar to rise.
Avatar 62-67 mil
Alvin 42 – 47
Sherlock 38-43
Do any of you geeks have kids? Seriously, you didn’t expect big Avatar numbers this week with schools all over the country off for Christmas vacation? And you also don’t understand that Alvin’s audience was at home waiting for Santa yesterday?
Lesson, for all of you pinheads. The reason so many films get released at Christmas is because it has become an American tradition to go to the movies during this period. People who only go once a year go at this time. Which is why even poorly reviewed films that no one even remembers two years later will get 100 mil this time of the year.
Here’s what will happen this weekend. Alvin will storm back because kids and parents will be finished with Santa. Sherlock Holmes will siphon off some of the Avatar crowd and the three of them will be locked in a close battle for number one. And who knows how well It’s Complicated will do but might surprise because it will pull in a completely different crowd than the other films.
Finally, Up In The Air will prove to be another George Clooney failure with mediocre BO for X-mas time but people will try and prop it up anyway.
Wow! Sherlock Holmes siphoned off from Avatar? And Avatar is still going to make over $70 million? If it wasn’t for Sherlock Holmes, I guess Avatar would’ve made closer to $100 million this weekend!
Oh, by the way, that’s sarcasm.
You are spot on. We are already planning to see Alvin this week.
Hey Bill, you really take your CG/animated children’s films seriously, don’t you? Pinheads? On Christmas? You should just go back to practicing making out with your pillow or your Twilight poster.
So, is Avatar expected to win the weekend, or does Sherlock Holmes have a chance? That film’s been getting a lot of positive buzz.
Sherlock Holmes is getting a lot of positive buzz? The one review I’ve seen, in a major paper, gave Sherlock Holmes one star and refer to the movie as awful.
it was awesome.
This movie is god awful, stay home and sort your sock drawer out. 2 hours I’ll never get back.
Nikki certainly doesn’t seem to like AVATAR very much, as evidenced by that headline. Yeah, CHIPMUNKS “beat” AVATAR – but AVATAR is still making around $16 million on the weekdays after its release, so what’s really more impressive? (It IS all gravy for Fox, so it doesn’t even matter…)
I don’t think Nikki is anti-Avatar. He’s just amazed that Alvin is rocking the house. A woman in the grocery store ahead of me bought a 3D singing Alvin Christmas card for $7.99. You are actually seeing history in the making. This is going to be the first successful serial franchise for very young children! Scooby Doo failed because the sequel was bad. The chipmunks will be back next Christmas! (or the one after)
“He” is actually a she…
Here’s another potential headline, Nikki: “ALVIN 2 clobbers UP IN THE AIR; makes mincemeat out of INVICTUS!”
Ummm…Up in the Air doesn’t get released wide until Christmas day. Invictus is a two weeks old.
Avatar is flopping right now but the numbers coming in. No way to cover the cost in theaters 800 million no way, do the math. I don’t who is talking on these boards but not really good with math and drops. 124, first week – look at boxoffice history and tell me what film besides Titanic went on to do 800 million???? Let’s all get real.
You must be a Drudge Report reader.
You know that they get money from foreign grosses too, right? It made $230 mil opening weekend; December releases consistently gross as least 3x their opening weekend over the course of the release, so that’s $700 right there.
Check the numbers for the three ‘Lord of the Rings’ movies; that’s the release that ‘Avatar’ is emulating (though there’s some ‘Titanic’ thrown in too.
Flopping? Um, no.
How many movies? Well lets see, 22 movies to be more exact, one of them being Titanic, like you mentioned.
Avatar has made over 400 million so far in just 7 days worldwide. Not many movies can claim that, sure as hell not 22. Actually the ones I know for certain did that, have all made more then 850 million. None of them opened in December, a month that is notorious for being slower then summer (but with much much better legs).
A movie opening in December with this kind of box-office so far is bound to make at least 3 times more then it did in its first week. So expect Avatar to finish with over 1.2 billion. This ain’t number thrown by me out there for the sake of it, this is all based on facts, statistics and a lot of analyzing box-office, something that comes with years and years of experience as an analyst.
TO THE REAL TRUTH OR WHOEVER YOU ARE:
Dude,
First, Avatar is not flopping. Whether you want to hate it or not, that is up to you, but it is not flopping.
Second, I would not be calling people out for not being able to do math, when you seem to have problems forming complete sentences and thoughts.
Third, no film has ever made $800 million domestically…not even Titanic. It made $600 million genius.
Please get your facts correct before you post on message boards, because it only makes you come off as ignorant if you don’t.
Maybe you’re a studio exec…that would certainly explain a lot.
Lot’s of movies made history this year, and here are two more. Alvin & the Chipmunk$ looks like the first successful franchise for little kids. Good. Maybe the studios will give up on all those Muppets movies.
Idiot. Bad grammar too. Avatar is a success. Do you even understand ‘the numbers’ coming in on it? I think not…But I do suspect you to be an inept USC student.
How can the Chipmunks sequal beat Avatar?!?!?!
Even more incredible, how in the world could the Princess and the Frog have failed, after all the publicity, good word-of-mouth, and John Lasseter’s help??????
It’s a bad day for Cameron, and a depressing year for the House of Mouse.
The grand canyon could be overfilled with the amount of dirt people have used in their DH(D) comments to prematurely put six feet under certain releases that they have a vested interest in the failure of.
Here’s the story, you miserable troglodytes: Alvin 2 will be at the discount theatres well before Valentine’s Day, and Avatar will be a first-run fixture well into the spring. Deal with it, vocal fringe minority of irrational Jam-Cam haters.
Seems reminiscent of Tim Burton’s “Planet of the Apes”. In truth, the film should fair well in the long run, at least enough where studios won’t balk at big ticket films as feared if Avatar flops. Still, the fan boy base will have to work overtime with multiple viewing’s to keep this “epic” on track to make the $$ back.
I really hope Avatar goes on to do another huge weekend and gets the #1 spot because it is amazing. I think everyone should get a chance to see this movie in 3D. It is now one of my favorite movies. To the guy that said Avatar is a flop…you are an idiot. It did not cost $800mil to make this movie and market it.
Another big story here is “Up in the Air” is grounded. Yet another George Clooney box office disappointment.