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SUNDAY AM UPDATE: Twentieth Century Fox has just released fresh Avatar numbers based on the 3-day weekend:
International weekend = $125M
International cume = $1.115B
Domestic weekend = $41.3M
Domestic cume = $491.8M
Worldwide cume = $1.606B
SATURDAY PM/SUNDAY AM: Alcon Entertainment’s post-apocalyptic actioner with religious overtones The Book of Eli on Friday briefly interrupted the 28-day reign of Avatar. But by Saturday, everything was back to normal with James Cameron’s big budget 3D technopic back at No. 1 for likely the entire Martin Luther King long weekend. (And who was the producer or co-producer of both giant-slayers Book Of Eli and Sherlock Holmes? Joel Silver. After 2 years of failure, he’s on the comeback trail.)
Sources tell me the Denzel Washington and Gary Oldman starrer distributed by Warner Bros with a we-be-cool marketing campaign made $11.7 million Friday and $12 million Saturday for a 3-day weekend of $31.6M from 3,111 theaters. That probably adds up to $37M for the 4-day long weekend — exactly what the studio expected after weeks of really strong tracking and crossover appeal. Once again, the spotlight is back on Alcon’s Princeton duo funded by FedEx boss Fred Smith whose daughter Molly brought the guys The Blind Side. The rest is history — and $240M domestic cume. Book of Eli is also a comeback for the Hughes brothers after a long absence from healthy box office grosses.
Hollywood predicted Friday’s box office order wouldn’t hold. “It’ll be Avatar for the weekend by a long shot,” one studio rival to 20th Century Fox told me. The blockbuster made $10.5 million Friday, followed by $17.5M Saturday for a 3-day total of $41.3M with Sunday estimates and $491.7M cume. What a tenacious hold, especially when its North American theater count also declined 4% to 3,285 venues. For the 4-day Martin Luther King holiday grosses, grosses should climb to $50M and #1 for the 5th weekend in a row (tying Sixth Sense). Note that Avatar‘s domestic cume could pass $500M by Monday’s end, and definitely Titanic‘s $600M by this month, to become the biggest domestic pic of all time. (But with an asterisk. After all, these figures are not adjusted for inflation or ticket prices, which are much higher for 3D Avatar than 2D Titanic‘s.) Same goes for the worldwide highest-grossing record: Avatar barely trails Titanic $1.4B to $1.8B.
At No. 3, Peter Jackson’s version of the bestselling book The Lovely Bones finally went modestly wide after 5 weeks in very limited release. It made $5.7M Friday and $6.4M Saturday for a 3-day weekend of $17M and $17.5M cume from 2,563 runs for what’s expected to be a respectable $20M for the 4-day holiday. It’s no secret that the budget was big, and the reviews were mixed, as was the pic’s performance on just 3 screens in NY and LA. But Paramount held a test screening in Kansas City on November 19th for teen girls, and lo and behold the film tested 90% in the top two boxes and scored a 67% definite recommend. So the studio came up with an alternative approach to selling the Dad and his dead daughter storyline and re-invented the film in TV spots as a must-see for teen girls. I’m told fully a third of the audience was under 18 last night. And, while the overall CinemaScore was a B, 70% of that teen audience scored the movie an A. (It turned out to be a controversial but ultimately wise decision to omit the book’s brutal rape.) ”Rob Moore, Megan Colligan, and Josh Greenstein did a tremendous job redefining the campaign and never waivered in their enthusiasm for the film given the softness of the platform,” a Peter Jackson pal gushed to me. Especially since Paramount inherited the pic from DreamWorks and never would have greenlit it. Let’s agree it’s the real story of this b.o. weekend.
The only other film opening this weekend was The Spy Next Door which Lionsgate appeared to bury. (I don’t recall seeing a single TV ad for it.) But kids found it for No. 4. Meanwhile, last weekend’s two new films — Lionsgate’s Daybreakers and The Weinstein Co’s Youth In Revolt have already fallen out of the Top 10 because of so many strong holdovers from Christmas-time and before. Yikes!
This long weekend looks like under $200M for the 4 days, the second-best MLK compared to last year when Paul Blart: Mall Cop led the way to the all-time record of $231M.
Here’s the Top 10 (numbers will be refined):
1. Avatar (Fox) Week 5 [3,285 Theaters]
Fri $10.5M, Sat $17.5M, 3-Day Wkd $41.3M, Est 4-Day Wkd $50M, Est Cume $500M
2. Book Of Eli (Alcon/Warner Bros) NEW [3,111 Theaters]
Fri $11.7M, Sat $12M, 3-Day Wkd $31.6M, Est 4-Day Wkd $37M
3. Lovely Bones (Paramount) Week 6 [2,563 Theaters]
Fri $5.7M, Sat $6.4M, 3-Day Wkd $17M, Est 4-Day Wkd $20M, Est Cume $23M
4. Alvin & The Chipmunks: The Squealquel (Fox) Week 4 [3,246 Theaters]
Fri $2.6M, Sat $5.4M, 3-Day Wkd $11.5M, Est 4-Day Wkd $16M, Est Cume $197M
5. Sherlock Holmes (Warner Bros) Week 4 [3,173 Theaters]
Fri $2.9M, Sat $4.1M, 3-Day Wkd $9.8M, Est 4-Day Wkd $11M, Est Cume $181.4M
6. The Spy Next Door (Lionsgate) NEW [2,924 Theaters]
Fri $2.3M, Sat $4.1M, 3-Day Wkd $9.7M, Est 4-Day Wkd $13M
7. It’s Complicated (Universal) Week 4 [2,673 Theaters]
Fri $2.4M, Sat $3.5M, 3-Day Wkd $7.8M, Est 4-Day Wd $9M, Est Cume $98.9M
8. Leap Year (Universal) Week 2 [2,512 Theaters]
Fri $1.9M, Sat $2.4M, 3-Day Wkd $5.6M, Est 4-day Wkd $7M, Est Cume $18.7M
9. The Blind Side (Warner Bros) Week 9 [2,408 Theaters]
Fri $1.6M, Sat $2.4M, 3-Day Wkd $5.5M, Est 4-Day Wkd $6.7M, Est Cume $228M
10. Up In The Air (Paramount) Week 7 [2,107 Theaters]
Fri $1.5M, Sat $2.4M, 3-Day Wkd $5.4M, Est 4-Day Wkd $6.6M, Est Cume $66M
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Didn’t Sherlock Holmes nab the #1 spot on its opening Friday only to lose out to Avatar for the weekend?
Yes, Sherlock and the Chipmunks each knocked it out for a day. So this is the 3rd time, not the 2nd.
Wow, I wonder if that keeps the studio heads up at night?
Avatar has made over $1.5 billion worldwide, but how could it lose to 3 movies that will combine for less than $1 billion worldwide! HAHAHA
i think avatar’s saturday numbers are larger because people work or go to school and can only catch the evening showings on friday.
Yes, you`re right. Holmes was tracking better than Avatar a few weeks before Avatar opening and it looked like it would open bigger than King of the World`s second coming. But I guess that once people saw Avatar, the WOM skyrocketed while interest in Holmes stayed where it was. Still great but not like Avatar phenomenon.
Lets not agree Lovely Bones marketing strategy is the boxoffice story. In all due respect Nikki, the movie costed $100 million to make and who knows how many dozens of millions to market. So 4 day opening weekend in mid-20s is soft with no chance of long legs since the only audience interested in it is teenage girls and no one else. This isn`t a cheapie like Twilight and yet that movie`s 3-day opening was 3 times Lovely Bones 4 days opening. Plus, reviews are not mixed, they are terrible. RT score is 36% and Meta is 42. So lets do the math: $100 mio budget + approximately $50 mio marketing + approximately $25 mio 4 day opening + terrible reviews + bad WOM + only teen demo interested = not breaking even in this lifetime. Now that`s a boxoffice story. Of a bomb.
Absolutely dead on analysis. Nikki obviously rocks, but every once in a while, she falls short in analyzing the profitability of certain movies. I suppose LOVELY BONES performed a bit better than expected, but as you point out Addison, there is no road to profitability for this picture.
Regarding AVATAR, I’m not sure why the need for the continuous asterisk caveats. These adjusted gross comments never entered into the conversation when discussing DARK KNIGHT, so why with AVATAR? Regarding the higher 3D ticket prices, this doesn’t really matter either. It’s money in the till, no matter where it came from. It hardly detracts from the monumental box-office performance of AVATAR in any way. Besides, it was Jim Cameron who insisted on 3D for AVATAR, so no matter how you slice it, he’s a genius.
One last comment on the asterisk conversation. No one, and I mean no one, thought AVATAR would begin to challenge or even likely surpass the $1.8 billion that TITANIC brought in– with our without an asterisk or two.
Absolutely agree with you on Avatar and inflation issue. The money is in the bank and inflation talk is used to undermine movie`s success. What some people miss about Avatar success is that the movie`s amazing hold has nothing to do with inflation and that bigger price of admission could`ve been an obstacle to repeat business. Yet people are willing to pay more and see the movie again and again, so, obviously, there`s more going on in there than just infatuation with special effects and 3D technology. I`d say there`s real emotional investment.
Also, inflation talk makes everything very boring since no movie is ever going to surpass Gone With the Wind when adjusted to inflation. You know, the movie that was playing in theaters for years because, back then, there wasn`t enough competition to cause the theater count drop,etc. Different times. Nobody denies old movie`s success but inflation adjustment shouldn`t be used to deny new movie`s success either, and it obviously is used in that context in Avatar case. You`re spot on about that.
Still, if you want to think about a movie’s actual popularity, it’s still sold far fewer tickets than many of the movie’s its surpassing. And with adjusted gross, it’s still way behind the likes of Dark Knight and Titanic (which despite adjustment for inflation, is still #6), not to mention about 30 other movies.
So for raw gross for the studio: good job! For how popular Avatar might be, it’s a really bad barometer. Extremely popular? Yes. Most popular ever? No.
But nobody is claiming it is the “most popular”; nor are films judged that way outside of the People’s Choice awards.
Box Office is just that Box Office, and by that most commonly used measure it will be the #1 film of all time.
Not exactly true. GWTW will never be surpassed. According to figures (Box Office Mojo) GWTW grossed over $198,000,000. Ticket prices that year were twenty three cents! That means GWTW had over 800,000,000 admissions. The U. S. population at the time was 130,000,000. Even considering reissues adding to the final gross numbers, these figures are astonishing.
“It cost US$58 million which is not too bad and I kept it low-ish so the expectations from the studio perspective don’t have to be too great and we can be risky.” PJ
The 6:30 show sold out again at my IMAX last night, and while I enjoyed the hell out of it, I think that was my third and last time at the theater with Avatar. I wish there was something else in the marketplace with actual appeal, but alas, it’s all dry. As it will be for a very long time. With the market this bad, is it any wonder Avatar continues to sell out five weeks later?
My boyfriend and I saw it at a SOLD OUT 7pm 3D IMAX show here last night in Indianapolis, after missing a sold out show at the same time last Sunday evening…
We both enjoyed it, but I believe I enjoyed it a bit more than he did. He said he saw no great difference in what we saw on 2D a month ago, but there were moments in 3D that blew me away. Some folks even still clapped at the end. I didn’t clap, but I’ll admit as a person that had to be forced to go the first time, it is a movie that has since grown on me. I will probably see it one more time (this time dragging him!)on Imax next month…
DK, I thought AVATAR had no shot at touching DARK KNIGHT’S domestic gross. Are you really trying to lay the bricks for a “DARK KNIGHT made $533 million in a great market and AVATAR did $600 in a bad market so DARK KNIGHT is still aces” argument?
No jugement – just wondering.
If memory serves, “Alvin” and “Sherlock” both opened No. 1 on their opening days, so “Avatar” has taken the back seat before. But with no 3-D competition on the horizon, it won’t be going away soon. The countdown to $600 M is on.
How unfortunate that the awful awful AWFUL SPY NEXT DOOR is going to open in the eight digits. Sad to see the great Jackie Chan reduced to dreck like this.
Agreed. Shame that Hollywood had never utilized Jackie Chan, Jett Li, Chow Yun fat, Michelle Yeoh, Zhang Ziyi,etc as well as they could have had. Chan hit it big with Rush Hour movies but never really got out of silly martial arts slapstick that weren`t all that funny.
Nikki, give it a rest with the Avatar box office justifications and qualifiers, would ya?
Actually both Alvin and the Chipmunks and Sherlock Holmes were number one on the days in which they came out. Avatar just beat them later in the weekend. So, Book of Eli is the third time it’s happened. If it beats Avatar for the weekend, then it’ll be the first. It has a chance.
People continue to make a big deal of the Avatar gross differential due to 3D. However, the bigger deal is that no movie that opened above $65 million has held anywhere near as Avatar. When all is said and done it may have 7x or more multiplier. The only thing that comes close is Phantom Menace, though that multiplier is inflated due to the fanboys seeing the movie during the weekday opening BEFORE the first weekend.
Good comment!
Looking back at James Cameron movies, the multiplier from opening weekend to final gross is always very good.
Terminator 2 had a 6.5 multiplier from opening weekend. True Lies had just under 6 multiplier. Aliens had an 8.5 multiplier and even The Abyss had close to a 6 multiplier.
James Cameron knows what appeals to the masses. And now Avatar has word of mouth closer to that of Titanic. While the multiplier will never reach the level of Titanic (almost 22 times its opening weekend), it’s still going to do better than most of his movies. And if Avatar can make it to $620 million, it will finish with a 8 multiplier from opening weekend.
This is a great point that is not being given enough attention. A multiplier of 8 would be ridiculously good for any movie, but combine that with the numbers that Avatar is making and it is absolutely sensational, something we have never seen before.
True…
There are 4 movies that opened with $77 million other than Avatar. None of them even made 4 times their opening weekend.
Harry Potter/Half Blood Prince:
- Opening weekend – $77.8 million
- Final Gross – $301.9 million
- Multiplier From Opening Wknd To Final Gross – 3.88
I Am Legend:
- Opening weekend – $77.2 million
- Final Gross – $256.39 million
- Multiplier From Opening Wknd To Final Gross – 3.32
Harry Potter/Phoenix:
- Opening weekend – $77.1 million
- Final Gross – $292 million
- Multiplier From Opening Wknd To Final Gross – 3.79
Da Vinci Code:
- Opening weekend – $77.07 million
- Final Gross – $217.54 million
- Multiplier From Opening Wknd To Final Gross – 2.82
As you can see, the movies that opened in the $77-$78 million range never made more than $302 million.
In fact, of all movies that have made more than $50 million on opening weekend, none have had a multiplier higher than 6.65 (Phantom Menace had the highest multiplier at 6.65).
Right now, as of the estimates for Monday, Avatar has a multiplier of 6.55, still trailing that of Phantom Menace (for movies that have opened with $50 million or higher). If Avatar ends with $600 million, the multiplier would be 7.79!
But, with Avatar having another $42 million+ weekend (Friday – Sunday), it should now go without saying that Avatar will easily pass the $600 million mark. $625 – $650 million is now the most likely total.
Then again, Avatar’s total could go higher than that now that it won Best Picture and Best Director at the Golden Globes. Titanic made another $364 million after it’s 5th weekend, as it made its way through the awards season and after.
Ok, before you rip me apart, I’m not saying that Avatar will make another $364 million…You can already see the difference from weekend to weekend. For instance, in both movies’ 4th weekends, Avatar dropped almost twice the percentage that Titanic dropped (26.6 % vs. 13.8%). Also, in this, their 5th weekends, Avatar dropped 14.9% for the 3-day portion of the weekend, while Titanic actually rose 4.5% on the same 3 day weekend (If you take the whole 4-day weekend, Titanic went up 25.4% while Avatar is estimated to go up 8.5%).
So, with Avatar winning the Golden Globes for Picture and Director, and Oscar buzz sure to follow, you know there are some people out there that will go see it that had no plan on seeing it before.
I know, I know…Now all the people that hate Avatar will still tell me that they won’t see it no matter what. But you can say whatever you want to, you know there will be others that refused to see it that will see it now!
And let me just say…Avatar SHOULD NOT have won Best Picture. There are so many more movies that deserve that honor. I can understand that it won Best Director, but the Hollywood Foreign Press or whatever they are called, all fell into the hype. I believe in the hype that people should experience this movie in theaters because DVD or Blu-Ray won’t do it justice, but Best Picture!!!!
But just watching that telecast last night was embarrassing! Missed lines…Stupid jokes…Annoying celebrities (Julia Roberts should just have more kids and stay home!). Yes, I laughed at Ricky Gervais, but the Golden Globes is just one big mess. I guess it wasn’t as bad as when that crazy old lady Elizabeth Taylor made an idiot of herself a few years back…Hahaha
But just to make things worse, Avatar won Best Picture! And yes, I admire James Cameron for what he can do on the big screen, but I don’t need to hear that he has to take a piss! Seriously Mr. Cameron! Show a little class!
And the best expression of the night goes to: Jason Reitman! Have you ever seen somebody so pissed off after losing an award? Priceless!
Anyway, with the award season now, and the buzz that Avatar will get, is $700 million really out of reach? I still think so. But Avatar has already surprised everyone so much, it’s bound to keep surprising!
Sherlock Holmes was also #1 on the 25th when it was released.
After hearing for the last five weeks about how god-awful Lovely Bones was, I found it to be somewhat of a pleasant surprise. I went in expecting or wanting to hate it and I was frankly struck by it. Yes, the focus and tone are incongruous at times, but it was consistently well-acted and well-directed, and it left me in a deeply contemplative state. Except for one should’ve-ended-up-on-the-cutting-room-floor-but-didn’t-because-of-CGI-costs ethereal interlude that made it seem like being raped and murdered was the best thing that could’ve happened to the poor girl, I thought the purgatory scenes were more elegiac than celebratory. Saoirse Ronan and Stanley Tucci are exceptional, and Mark Wahlberg does a better job of selling parental grief than anyone seems to be giving him credit for. I was annoyed by Peter Jackson’s deification during the LOTR craze because I thought those films basically directed themselves; this film I thought was the most illustrative workshop of his directorial talents since his Heavenly Creatures triumph. I’m glad I went, even though it didn’t quite achieve the greatness heights it was aspiring for.
LOTR directed themselves?!
Watch the special features on the DVD’s. There’s only about 36 hours worth, and what becomes evident is that Jackson had his hand in every single aspect. In fact, you would be hard pressed to find any Director in history to have had as much input in creating a movie/world from tw ground up… Probably only Cameron with Avatar comes close.
Walt Disney.
You called that acting? Mark Walberg text book acting superb? All of his roles was with same acting and that one tone voice.
Silly book made in a movie and that is awesome to you? Sheesh! living in a box much?
‘this film I thought was the most illustrative workshop of his directorial talents since his Heavenly Creatures’
Step away from the crack pipe Gary.
Thanks for the update was waiting for the figures to come out.Let’s see if Avatar wins this weekend or not .
“The Spy Next Door” was not very good, but my kids seemed to enjoy it. They did play a ton of trailers for it on Nickelodeon. Maybe they didn’t completely bury it.
I am pretty sure Sherlock Holmes was #1 it’s opening Friday.
Teen girls turn out for Lovely Bones? Anyone else surprise? I thought more like a drama a la Mystic River or the like. Nice shift by the marketers.
Re Avatar, going with a gang to see sunday night. I think it still has legs.
Didn’t Sherlock Holmes beat Avatar on Christmas Day. So Eli wouldnt be the first on to beat avatar.
(Courtesy of Box Office Mojo)
All TIME WORLD WIDE
1. Titanic
2. Avatar
3. Return of the King
The writing’s on the wall.
That’s not inflation adjusted. FT did an all-time world wide box office inflation adjusted and Gone with the Wind was the winner, by some gargantuan amount, in today’s dollars. You can see Box Office Mojo’s HERE with Gone With the Wind at 1.48 billion at #1, #2 Star Wars, #3 Sound of Music …
And #50 … AVATAR. Again, the lists are inflation adjusted.
I don’t recall how FT did their methodology.
Gone With the Wind has many released which are included in the total, so the comparison isn’t really fair.
So, are you saying that Gone With The Wind would’ve made $1.48 billion if it was released today instead of 1939?
Yep. The writing says the top two grossing movies of all time kind of suck.
LOL…Gone with the Wind is the box office king DOMESTICALLY mind you pre-inflation, pre-DVD, pre-TV/cable era…can’t compare apples and oranges…the chart I posted above is for box office WORLDWIDE…Dainla, the top 2 worldwide hits kinda suck? Um, I think you are in the minority with your opinion…on basis of box office and popularity which are objective ways to quantify a films success, you are definitely on the wrong side of the tracks there…I thought btw, this was a Hollywood business website not ain’t it cool or rottentomatoes?
Another way to read the above chart which I find quite interesting: TITANIC. AVATAR. RETURN OF THE “KING.”
What are the odds of ROTK, formerlly #2, dropping to #3 in order to make way for an alternative and ironic reading. The writing is truly on the way for those of you who can’t see it yet. Seriously, Pirates was a close #3…imagine if it had been pirates at #2 before Avatar. Pretty prophetic in my book. Smells of divine intervention and JC’s Hollywood magic.
That`s hilarious and spooky at the same time. Avatar is trully Return of the King and Top 3 reflects that in unusual ways. Thanks for pointing out!
My god, Avatar is amazing. $10.5 million on its 29th day…incredible. Also, with It’s Complicated looking like a $100 million earner, 2009 will have had 31 movies make 9 figures or more, and the Princess and the Frog still has a small chance to make it 32. It is a great time to be following the box office.
Well, that’ll be FIVE weekends at #1 for “Avatar”, a domestic cume of $500 million, it will pass “Dark Knight” next week, “Titanic” by the end of the month.
Quote I’ve saved from someone here whose name shall remain anonymous back on Dec. 20th:
“It’ll flop. Won’t even get to $150 million domestic.”
Got any more predictions, Nostradamus?
“Got and more predictions, Nostradamus?”
Absolutely hilarious.
Good call. But, I think, even more instructive to look at the mainstream media itself. Back when the two-minute preview was released in August, this site wrote, “Please, Jim, guarantee us this is not another The Abyss. Or worse.” (Which is one of many such snickering, dismissive comments.)
Or what about the vaunted ‘New York Times’? Remember their facially bogus article that claimed that Avatar cost $500m – which the rest of the mainstream media and the “blogosphere” reported credulously, never bothering to see that, even with the screwy accounting in the article, the math still didn’t even add up! Well, after two pages of moronic claims and mathematical ineptitude, they giggled and smirked at the end:
“Taking no chances, Fox is backing up Mr. Cameron’s movie with what an executive recently called the studio’s “secret weapon.”
That would be “Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakuel,” set to open just a week after studio marketers get “Avatar” into theaters. It is the relatively safe sequel to a chipper family comedy that cost about $60 million and took in $217 million at the domestic box office when it was released two years ago.”
So the ‘New York Times’ and an unnamed Fox executive were tacitly implying that frickin’ ‘Alvin and the Chipmunks’ would be bigger than Avatar. It’s a good thing Fox only owns 40% of Avatar. That’s all they deserve.
I`m enjoying the fact that, boxofficewise, Cameron will defeat Cameron. It makes things so much more awesome and unbelievable.
Ask Whiskey…He is in fact, Nostradamus!
I wish I knew who you were talking about. I think Whiskey predicted around $200 million originally. I think he also said that Avatar would have to make $1 billion worldwide to break even. Of course, now he’s changed his tune and still says that Avatar will lose money even though it’s already made over $1.5 billion by the end of this weekend.
I feel stupid on three counts. I thought it would open $90 to $100 million because of the hype and end up making $200 to $300 million because the audience wouldn’t like the “Uncanny Valley” near photorealistic cgi. Instead it made less than I thought it would opening weekend and will probably go on to be the highest grossing film of all time … because people loved the visuals that I thought they would hate.
So I was completely wrong. I’m happy to be wrong, I always love it when sci-fi movies do well. It encourages the production of other sci-fi movies and television shows.
What’s Eli expected to do Friday to Sunday?
$30 million
Thank God Broderick and Andrew @ Alcon hired Molly. They’ve been burning through Fred Smith’s money for years with little to show for it. She should be running the place.
THE LOVELY BONES is awful. Unwatchable. And cost…$100 million. Yikes!
Peter Jackson is a 3-hit, 1-trilogy wonder. Sorry PJ, I love LOTR but you really gotta get your head out of the clouds.
Anyone who saw the Frighteners, or Beautiful Creatures, knows how maddening Jackson can be. I like the Frighteners, but it had some awful, mood-killing moments, and lack of emotional continuity, that King Kong and this movie are not any surprises.
Tolkein was so “bullet-proof” in that the source material was so voluminous, detailed, and so many knew it (meaning Jackson and the screenwriters could not take liberties) that other strengths of Jackson: budget, production management, enthusiasm, a certain “love of place” visible in the cinematography and direction, came into play.
Jackson was the perfect director for the perfect trilogy. No one else could have done what he did. Its a monumental achievement.
But he tends to indulge his ego too much, in putting “funny” scenes where they don’t belong. Sigh.
I’m confused? Before you said that Peter Jackson should be given a big budget to direct movies instead of James Cameron? Now Peter Jackson is going to have another failure on his hands?
Do you even listen to yourself? Yes, the Lord Of The Rings trilogy was a “monumental achievement”, but how can you say then that Avatar is not a “monumental achievement”?
You are contradicting yourself…That’s the first sign of someone that can’t come to terms with reality…Someone that puts emotions over actual proof!
it’s heavenly creatures, not beautiful. but it is a beautiful film — acclaimed all over and made for a pittance.
Jackson did well with producing District 9. I like that movie. King Kong and Lovely Bones were awful, though. I guess that teenage girls will save Lovely Bones from becoming a total misfire so he`ll learn nothing from this near miss like he learned nothing from near miss King Kong (hence why Lovely Bones has all its mistakes x 1000). His fanboys, however,abandoned him this time around and teen girls will not take this movie to Twilight heights it desperately needs thanks to $100 million budget.
I don’t understand this King Kong hate. Aside from a handful of ok-to-bad scenes, the movie was pretty fantastic, very unlike most cookie cutter blockbusters we get. Come on, compare it to Transformers 2. Furthermore, if I recall correctly, King Kong got the 5th most top ten mentions in 2005.
As for Heavenly Creatures (or Beautiful Creatures as whiskey called it), that movie is flawless and refreshingly zany (and vicious, too).
Heavenly Creatures is a masterpiece,IMO. King Kong, OTOH, was unnecessary remake that didn`t get why the original was such a classic. Too long, Black and Brody totally miscast and unwatchable, stupidity ahoy ( outrunning dinos, giant insect shootout, Kong tossing Anne like a rugdoll at neck-breaking speed,etc), Kong and Anne being buddies who skate in Central Park????? Sorry, 3 hours of my life wasted back in 2005. And the movie made those critic`s lists because of Jackson`s LOTR credit. There was a lot of goodwill but now that TLB turned out to be a turd, even LOTR and District 9 cred couldn`t save it with critics.
And countdown to Avatar-haters announcing its road to ruin in three…two…one…
Hahaha…They’ve been around for a while. There’s just less of them now. And the ones that are left are fabricating the numbers to try to prove Avatar a failure.
Wow, this was interesting how this weekend has played out so far.
1. AVATAR – This movie is truly unstoppable and is sure to be #1 at the box office. Even though inflation and higher ticket prices have had a big influence on its perfomance, it is still nothing to scoff it and with a sequel on the horizon, it will be fun to see how that plays out. Cameron is the king of the box office and having #1 and #2 among other blockbusters is just amazing.
2. BOOK OF ELI – I pegged this in at the high $20M range if lucky given its R-rating and DAYBREAKERS semi-strong opening, but this really took off out of the gates. I forsee around $85M final. The $100M mark seems fuzzy to me, but I suppose it is possible. Word-of-mouth just isn’t that strong and judging by films of the ilk (hey, even DAYBREAKER) a large drop is in store in the upcoming weeks. However, Denzel is always a curveball with a loyal fanbase. But was that fanbase exhausted over this weekend? Also how will Legion do now? This killed Daybreakers. I doubt Legion will effect this much, in fact, I think this will effect Legion. Appealing to the exact same audience, I doubt many will see the same film twice, espically because Legion looks low-caliber to this.
3. LOVELY BONES – Spot-on when Nikki said that this is the biggest surprise of the week. Appearing DOA in limited, the 180 degree marketing turn around was the best thing this film got. I don’t see a big drop in the upcoming weeks so maybe high $60Ms, low $70M final. While it is still not a hit given its absurd $100M+ budget, it isn’t the flop that is was expected to be.
4. SHERLOCK HOLMES – This is falling faster than desired, espically for a potential franchise with the budget for #2 surely to be higher. $200M seems like a reality now but not much more.
5. ALVIN 2 – WOW! I thought SPY NEXT DOOR would bring this film down a peg, but guess not. Maybe TOOTH FAIRY will be competition for it, but who knows. Sure to surpass the first one, this is EXTRAORDINARY for a kids flick to do. I think SHREK 2 is the only kids film to outgross the first one. Even Night at the Museum 2 missed the mark of its first one by $75M. Terrific.
6. IT’S COMPLICATED – Possible $125M outcome. If the low dips keep on coming it can surpass that by maybe $10-15M.
7. SPY NEXT DOOR – While it was on the low end of expectations, it should have thrived more considering the lack of competition.
8. LEAP YEAR – Romcoms never drop big at the box office and with no other chick-flick aimed at teens, this should go on to make mid $30M range.
9. THE BLIND SIDE – I have gushed over this film’s performance many times and I do believe Sandra will win the Golden Globe due to lack of competiton and Streep’s votes cancelling each other out. Also an Oscar nom. for Bullock is in the cards as well as possible best picture rumblings (which I think though is undeserved. It was good, but lets not get ahead of ourselves now). I see another bump after the Golden Globes and with the Oscar nominations as long as it holds onto enough theaters which it has been doing spectacularly. $250M is very realistic now.
10. Up in the Air – Good hold and maybe $85M if it does well at Oscars and Golden Globes. If not, $75M. That is great considering its subject matter.
11. Daybreakers – What a shame. Decent flick, but Eli killed it and next week is not better with Legion. Should be out of theaters the week after that.
12. YOUTH in REVOLT – Hey, it’s TWC and they butchered its release. Should not have dropped this bad. Competition was too tough, espically being rated R and DAYBREAKERS and ELI appealing to the same audience.
Overall, all the films for the most part did quite well, though there were jaw-dropping shockers. Next week will be interesting, which film will be this years NOTORIOUS? Wait and see.
BTW, anyone got SINGLE MAN and CRAZY HEART numbers?
Christians love Eli. Because of its overt Christian theme (the book Eli carries is the Bible).
So it has that going for it. It will probably hold up more than you think — it’s not just a supernatural actioner like Legion or Daybreakers. It is most comparable to Blind Side or Fireproof in its Christian themes.
Not my kind of movie, you understand. But its the only explicitly, Christian movie, from Hollywood, since probably the Preacher’s Wife (also with Washington).
Whiskey says: “But its the only explicitly, Christian movie, from Hollywood, since probably the Preacher’s Wife (also with Washington).”
Ever heard of Passion of the Christ? Or just ignoring it because it invalidates your thesis?
I beg to differ. It would take superpowers for him to do all that stuff while blind. (The Bible’s in braille.) Not to mention that iPod that works for thirty years without power.
I preferred this movie when it was Zardoz.
Nice way to spring a big *spoiler* into the mix. Terrible!
CONTAINS SPOILERS!!!
He was using a battery that he obviously would’ve had recharged along the way as he does later in the film.
Super powers? clearly you have little “faith”. The story is about faith and a man who is completely filled with it that despite what is a terrible handicap for that world has managed to go on through it unrelenting. There maybe elements of “miracles” within it also but its a film based on god and the bible so if you watch the ten commandments without question then this should be no different. All films require suspension of disbelief.. its a shame when people forget that at the entrance and require too much science and explanation to gather what a film is quite clearly about.. Take a film for what it is and the story too.. then you won’t complain about things that are correct for the story they inhabit! The film has its own set of rules and follows those completely and is very good for what it is in my opinion.
Great analysis! My heart goes to Daybreakers too, very decent vampire flick with some neat fresh ideas, but killed by BoE, as expected.
However, I must agree about TLB. This movie is based on a big best-seller, meaning there is a solid fanbase, and it has big names,big budget and PG-13 rating. Therefore, book fans will see the movie regardless of the reviews. I get that Paramount is trying to spin TLB`s opening as if the movie is some kind of Paul Blart, but I`m sorry, it is not a sleeper. It didn`t come out of nowhere but built-in fandom has always been there as is marketing and big names attached to the project. It`s boxoffice analysts who missed the mark by predicting total flop when they forgot about these facts and simply took critical trashing as be all and end all of the boxoffice take. Movies based on popular sources are critic-proof in its opening weekend because of the fandom rush. Pramount is now trying to present TLB as boxoffice success story for hitting much lower numbers than a movie based on a super-popular source, with big names and big special effects, should have. But the truth is that TLB is underachiever. What makes it look like overachiever are those off-the-mark predictions that, as already pointed out, forgot about its built-in fanbase.
Nothing much against the movie (it sucked, though) but the studio`s lording over everyone because their big budget critical fiasco made $5.7 mio on Friday is just ridiculous.
Thanks for the kind words. While yes, you might say ELI is based on the biggest book ever, I would still count it as original. Whiskey, you bring up a great point with FIREPROOF and BLIND SIDE (though it had more than just Chrisitian appeal). However, I did not see this movie connecting to the Christian audience as intensley. It sure does have some major biblical themes, but I didn’t feel like it was a film that would be supported by massive droves of Christians, but it will be interesting how it will drop next week with your point I will keep in mind.
addison, while this film does have a high budget ($80M) for this type of film, I think a four-day of $38M would still be considered a minor success. However, I do agree with you in calling it a hit, if you look at it in perspective, this is a phenomenal January opening and doomsday-set films rarely succeed at the box office.
Oh, sorry addison, I thought you were talking about BOOK OF ELI, not Lovely Bones. I totally agree with you on that point. It is a flop, even in its 3 theaters it highly underperformed compared to previous year Oscar-hopefuls, but that is due to TLB’s poor critical receiption. Yet $20M makes it seem like less of a fiasco than it was predicted to be. I thought it would do $14M 3-day and $17M 4-day, and end up at around $50M. With the same multiplier, and a higher $17M 3-day, $20M 4-day, one can see this reaching $60M. Something like THE TIME TRAVELERS WIFE, another film with an A-list cast based off of a widely popular book with strong female appeal that got a cold critical receiption.
No worries. Great take on BoE. I`ll get back to it down the line.
But first,I wouldn`t even pay attention to TLB`s boxoffice if Paramount spin doctors weren`t so desperate. Just read in Variety that Paramount pronounced TLB`s opening a boxoffice triumph. Yep, $17 mio opening for a $100 mio movie is suddenly a triumph. Ok, perhaps Paramount fell into a time loop and is actually thinking they are still in 2009 and opening Paranormal Activity, a movie made for the price of a Big Mac or something. That would make sense. Otherwise they are either smoking weed or are too desperate or both. Likely both.
To break down the “triumph” even further, the movie`s PTA of $6,656 was bested by BoE`s $10,162 and Avatar`s $12,572. Since TLB`s theater count is the lowest of the top 3 and its PTA should`ve been higher than BoE and/or Avatar`s since PTA drops with theater expansion. Yet, it isn`t the case here, so if TLB was released in 3111 theaters like BoE, instead of 2560, it still wouldn`t make #2 because of BoE`s strong PTA. Bottom line is that BoE, which isn`t based on a famous source and is sold on Denzel`s power alone, has beaten TLB, based on one of the last decade`s biggest bestsellers and directed by the last decade`s hottest director/producer and starring famous names with Oscar pedigree, not because it played in more cinemas but because there was much bigger demand. Now that`s a triumph.
I saw the trailer for The Spy Next Door in theaters. It was literally the most painful preview of the year. Jackie Chan and kids with Home Alone 5 shtick. It made The Tooth Fairy look like a tolerable family alternative.
Truly the most hilarious trailer of 2009, saw it attached to THIS IS IT and was wailing with laughter. Just when this trailer can’t the movie look any worse, here comes Billy Ray Cyrus! Then George Lopez!
“only the 2nd movie to be #1 during the 28-day reign of Avatar”
Both Alvin and the Chipmunks and Sherlock Holmes were #1 on their respective opening days. So it’s the fourth movie.
Wow. Get your “third” and “fourth” straight please, Correctotron.