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SUNDAY PM: Once again, moviegoers showed that they wanted whatever Hollywood was giving them, no matter what critics were telling them about the 3 very different genre films that opened Friday through Monday. This turned into the highest grossing U.S. Presidents Weekend ever with a 4-day total estimated at $230 million, besting the previous record of $220M set last year. But this year’s overall number was aided by the inclusion of Valentine’s Day. And New Line/Warner Bros exploited all the love in the air by delivering the critically savaged but filmgoer pleasing movie Valentine’s Day for the weekend’s widest release of 3,665 theaters. Look, success like this doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out. Toby Emmerich et al came up with a formula of cramming more than a dozen stars into a film and keeping the budget below $50 million.
So these days, when most films can barely afford even 2 major stars, how did Valentine’s Day keep costs down for the cast including Julia Roberts, Jessica Alba, Bradley Cooper, Anne Hathaway, Patrick Dempsey, Taylor Lautner, Jamie Foxx, Jennifer Garner, Topher Grace, Ashton Kutcher, Queen Latifah and Emma Roberts? Most worked for discounted quotes and some back-end because they were able to film their parts quickly and then leave for other projects. All those names made for an impressive trailer (the one-sheet is so crowded that only thumbnails of the stars in the shape of a heart was possible). So women were easily wooed to want to see this celeb-filled crapfest, and men took the easy way out rather than think up an original way to heart the holiday. (“Men are less negative than usual,” one rival studio exec snarked.) The lame pic received only 13% positive reviews from top critics on Rotten Tomatoes, but the studio has already planned its sort-of sequel. Here’s why: V-Day made $16.5M Friday, $18.4M Saturday and a whopping $22M Sunday for what Warner Bros is predicting to me will be a $65M four-day weekend. Also feeling the love was Relativity/Sony Pictures’ sappy military-themed love story Dear John which did as much business Sunday as it did on Saturday.
By contrast, The Wolfman cost at least $150 million even if Universal claims tax credits brought that figure down to $110M. With only 30% positive reviews on Rotten Tomatoes, it’s another in a long list of costly underperfomers from fired Uni Pictures topper Marc Shmuger. The buzz was consistent from early on that this creature feature starring Oscar-winner Benecio Del Toro was a disappointing mess. Wolfman was supposed to earn $40+M for the four-day holiday, and now will be lucky to total $35M this weekend. for 3rd place. Then again, Jurrassic Park 3‘s director Joe Johnston was at the helm. ‘Nuff said. Pic opened day and date in 37 territories this weekend.
20th Century Fox’s newcomer Percy Jackson and the Olympians: The Lightning Thief only looks like a total rip-off of Harry Potter. But instead of an offspring of wizards, this is the half-human son of the Greek god Poseidon. And instead of J.K. Rowling and her novels, this is Rick Riordan and the bedtime stories he told his son. (Lightning Thief was written in 1994, before Philosopher’s Stone was published, although it wasn’t published until 11 years later.) The marketplace was in dire need of new PG kiddie content, and this pic overperformed by doing twice what was expected. Its continuing matinee bounces especially on Presidents Day should keep it in 2nd place.
1. Valentines Day (Warner Bros) NEW [3,665 Theaters]
Fri $14.7M, Sat $18.4M, Sun $22M, 3-Day Wkd $52.4M, 4-Day Hol $65M
2. Percy Jackson & The Olympians(Fox) NEW [3,356 Theaters]
Fri $9.7M, Sat $11.5M, Sun $9.5M, 3-Day Wkd $31.1M, 4-Day Hol $40M
3. The Wolfman (Universal) NEW [3,222 Theaters]
Fri $9.8M, Sat $10.9, Sun $10M, 3-Day Wkd $30.6M, 4-Day Hol $34.8M
4. Avatar (Fox) Week 9 [2,685 Theaters]
Fri $4.5M, Sat $9.2M, Sun $9M, 3-Day Wkd $30.0M, 4-Day Hol $26M, Cume $659.6M
5. Dear John (Relativity/Sony) Week 2 [2,975 Theaters]
Fri $4.1M, Sat $5.4M, Sun $5.8M, 3-Day Wkd $15.3M, 4-Day Hol $18M, Cume $53.1M
6. Tooth Fairy (Fox) Week 4 [2,748 Theaters]
Fri $1.2M, Sat $2.3M, 3-Day Wkd $5.9M, 4-Day Hol $7.7M, Cume $41.5M
7. From Paris With Love (Lionsgate) Week 2 [2,722]
Fri $1.1M, Sat $2.0M, 3-Day Wkd $5.0M, 4-Day Hol $4.9M, Cume $35.9M
8. Edge of Darkness (Warner Bros) Week 3 [2,615]
Fri $1.0M, Sat $1.8M, 3-Day Wkd $4.6M, 4-Day Hol $5.2M, Cume $35.9M
9. Crazy Heart (Fox Searchlight) Week 9 [1,005]
Fri $864K, Sat $1.6M, 3-Day Wkd $3.9M, 4-Day Hol $4.7M, Cume $16.5M
10. When in Rome (Disney) Week 3 [2,125]
Fri $808K, Sat $1.2M, 3-Day Wkd $3.3M, 4-Day Hol $3.7M, Cume $25.8M
Editor-in-Chief Nikki Finke - tip her here.
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Another excellent hold for Avatar considering the brutal competition and 10% loss of theaters. Going by these estimates, Avatar has now faced a $62+m opener, a $76m 5-day opener, a 50+m opener, a $40+m opener, two $30m openers plus the 2nd weekends of Sherlock and Alvin which were both over $35m, and possibly another $30m opener with Wolfman.
Conversely, The Dark Knight only faced two openers over $30m in its first 10 weeks: The Mummy 3 at $40.5m and Step Brothers at $30.9.
Return of the King’s toughest competition its first 10 weeks was 50 First Dates at $39.9m on its 9th weekend when it was hardly making anything anyway. Nothing else above $30m.
Not that this will prevent the trolls from continuing to assert Avatar’s had a weak schedule and that The Dark Knight and Lord of the Rings had tougher competition.
These records just keep getting broken at the moment!
I’d have to be dating a woman of the same hotness caliber as the film’s bevy of beauties in order to see Valentine’s Day. Average Jane says I have to see it with her to preserve the relationship? Dealbreaker.
If your chick insists on seeing anything else this holiday weekend besides Valentine’s Day, she’s a keeper.
You know I didn’t see it, but I’m kinda sorta giddy about Harry Potter and The Olympians opening weak.
Wait it’s not Harry Potter? Kid with (nonsensical) hero prophecy destiny in a magical battlefield tagging around with two other kids…one boy one girl…
Could’ve confused me.
I don’t get Chris Columbus. Once upon a time, OK in the 1980s, he was a pretty good scriptwriter. Gremlins, Goonies, heck even Adventures in Babysitting. But as a director, he’s DEADLY BORING. His narrative is as fluid, lively, and dynamic as a stack of polaroid snapshots taped together into a flipbook.
BTW, one more musing about “Percy Jackson.” That stuff partakes on the idea that the Greek Gods are real, right?
Does that mean my Christian God doesn’t exist? Now I’m depressed. I know he wasn’t a “playah” like Zeus, but Mr. God was a decent deity. Thanks Percy, thanks alot.
Re: Percy Jackson’s $50M opening
Has the next Harry Potter franchise finally been found?
The Wolfman: A remake that didn’t need to be made, with an actor who shouldn’t have been cast in the lead.
I know that big (projected)lead PERCY JACKSON has over WOLFMAN is conventional wisdom (Matinee “bump” for the kid’s flick);but word of mouth from fans of the books has been lukewarm. Horror fans, however, are pretty fired up about WOLFMAN, so don’t count it out yet….
It’s times like this when movies like Valentine’s Day come out that I am glad I am not in a relationship.
Next up: Love, American Style – The Next Generation
*Sigh.* You know you’ve aged into a different demographic when you’re too busy watching “Two and a Half Men” and “Big Bang Theory” to have ever heard of “Percy Jackson and the Olympians,” and apparently $50M worth of tweens think it’s the greatest thing since sliced bread.
We all knew that silly date movie was going to do well this weekend, but how about that Percy Jackson! It’s still kinda early to tell, but if Nikki’s early projections are correct, a $50 million four-day weekend is very impressive!
And, after one week at number one, Dear John drops all the way to #5, and below Avatar. People will already forget about Dear John by the end of this weekend (or actually during this weekend).
Avatar will go on to make over $700 million domestically. Both Valentine’s Day and Percy will make over $100 million. The Wolfman will drop about as quickly as Dear John, out of people’s memories. Dear John will make less than $80 million and Wolfman will make less than $70 million.
And now only word of mouth will tell if Percy will become a franchise (I don’t know too much about this storyline, but I believe that they want to make it a franchise, right?). But a great start!
Percy Jackson won`t hit $50 mio 4-day but about $40 mio. It`s still good but not Twilight good considering that Percy`s budget is between $95 mio (according to Boxoffice Mojo) and $145 mio (IMDB). I haven`t heard of those books before movie announcement but having seen the movie I can say the franchise will benefit from changing the director Potter style. Very happy Columbus is out of the Potter picture. PJ was totally generic. Not unenjoyable or without promise but Columbus bland direction is just ugh.
I was just blown away by PERCY JACKSON — such a fun movie — and don’t leave before the end credits, it is well worth it.
So how much will Valentines Day fall next weekend? I expect a New Moon or Friday the 13th style drop.
Keep in mind that the only wide release next week, I believe, is “Shutter Island.” I expect that to do anywhere between $35-45 million, but “Valentine’s Day” will probably hold up at number 2 with at least $25 million. A significant drop, yes, but the pic is on track to go to $150 million total domestic.
I’d have to be dating a woman of the same hotness caliber as the film’s bevy of beauties in order to see Valentine’s Day. Even then, I’d be dragged into the auditorium kicking, screaming, and yearning to see ANYTHING else (I take back all the bad things I said about Percy Jackson being a blatant Harry Potter ripoff, please let me see it ten times in a row in one sitting instead of a single VD showing). Average Jane who’s the polar opposite of Jessica Biel on the looks scale says we have to see it this holiday weekend in order to preserve the relationship? Dealbreaker!
This weekend poses a good litmus test for whether you’re going to make it as a couple. If she insists on joining the rest of the zombies in seeing sitcom pablum like Valentine’s Day just because the title and the corny subject matter coincide with the holiday, your love is not long for this world. If she wants to munch on popcorn while reveling in the grisly delights of Wolfman, propose to her on the spot.
Actually, WOLFMAN is a very romantic film- full moon, candlelight, carriage rides, and a big hairy man bursting out of his clothes. What lady could resist?
Yes, Percy Jackson is CLEARLY a ripoff of Harry Potter. Rick Riordan obviously invented a way to travel in time so he could read the HP books and rip them off in the bedtime stories he made up to tell his son. (Lightning Thief was written in 1994, several years before Philosopher’s Stone was published, although it wasn’t published until 11 years later.)
My wife and I went to see the “Wolfman” on VD. There were lots and lots of couples there also. I thought it was a pretty good werewolf movie. I would give it a 5 1/2 out of ten. It’s entertainment and nothing else. I will probably see it again.
Wow.
So Avatar is on track to make more than 700 million domestically?!
I have a feeling that VD doesn’t reach $60m by Monday night. I’d revise that down at least $3m, maybe more.
Holy crap.
By the middle of next week, “Avatar” will have hit $700 million domestic. And the Oscars aren’t until next month.
$750? $800 million by the time it’s done?
Good grief.
Apart from that, I’m surprised “Valentine’s Day” will have such a good weekend considering the reviews – and I really thought “The Wolfman” would be #2, considering that I haven’t seen a single advertisement for “Percy Jackson”…interesting.
Avatar would make $800 million if Alice in Wonderland weren’t stealing all its screens on March 5th. $700 million is more appropriate estimate wise, because Avatar will drop like a rock unfortunately when its removed from lots of IMAX 3D screens. But yes, $700 million is like…dayumn.
Unfortunately, Alice in Wonderland is going to bump it out of most 3D screens and all IMAX screens on Oscar weekend. It’s possible it could fall off the map altogether unless some chains do the right thing and keep it showing at night while Depp & Burton’s ten billionth go-round together is relegated to matinees. Its legs will be cut out from underneath it the moment its 3D availability dries up because consumers have sent a loud and clear message that this is the format they prefer to see it in. The IMAX schedule is going to be clogged up from March through summer, so I’m guessing Avatar won’t reach 800 million domestic unless it gets re-released in the format later in the year if they have a dead zone to fill.
You didn’t see an advertisement for Percy Jackson because they’re not trying to reach you. They were all over Nickelodean and Cartoon Network and got to the kids they needed/wanted.
I just heard Fox is no longer predicting the weekend for PERCY JACKSON. The Twittering amongst the 12 year old set is so positive — including bets on how many times they can see it this weekend — has put the studio in shock.
Looks like Avatar will finish with just under $800 domestically and around $2.5 billion worldwide….not bad
I really hope that Inglorious Basterds and Tarantino gets the Oscar — Avatar’s got the money already, does the king of the world need another two or three oscars? The Academy should vote for the best picture of the year and to me that is Inglorious Basterds.
Valentine’s day on other websites are reporting 14.3 million for Friday’s grosses. It’s a great, fun flick, really enjoyed it.
I was in a theater that hissed Valentine’s Day at the end. Easily the worst movie of the year.
OK, this is exactly what has me going “WTF?!”
A romantic comedy for Valentine’s Day pulling in $60 million??? WTF?
Avatar $2.2 billion? WTF?!!!
Dear John beating Avatar on one weekend with $35 million? Huh!? (okay so I’m being nicer)
I don’t understand these grosses at all. This seems crazy that movies are pulling in these kind of dollars.
Not even talking whether they are good or bad. That’s not the point. How are even mediocre movies (“Valentine’s Day”) generating this kind of cash?
Somebody, anybody in the know care to explain?
Avatar will make the estimate you have for the 4-day weekend by the end of sunday. 4-day total will definitely be over 28, possibly over 30
Thanks, Garry Marshall. Now we’ll get the crapfests “St. Patrick’s Day”, “Secretary’s Day”, “Easter”, and more. $60 million? Ugh. And how much has The Hurt Locker made? That’s sad. And how embarrassing for the Wolfman people. Who’s bright idea was it to release it on VD weekend? Geesh. Talk about not having a clue. If you had to hold it back this long, you could at least have held it until Halloween, when people are in the mood. It’s not brain surgery, folks!
The real story this weekend is how soon the bottom will fall out on all three of these movies: Valentine’s Day is overperforming now, but watch it drop like a rock once the titular K-Mart holiday has passed. He’s Just Not That Into You had a nice V-Day weekend hold last year, then it dropped 56% in Week Three.
Percy Jackson may have started well, but take a look at the anemic 1% rise on Saturday… looks a little front-loaded, eh? I’d like to know what the budget was on that thing; curiously, it’s not listed on IMDb, BOM, etc. Once we get the negative, we’ll have the whole story, and it probably won’t be good.
It’s funny how everyone is bagging on The Wolfman for opening at #3 when it was predicted to make $30 million this weekend… and it did. If any of these three has a chance at holding on, it’s probably this, even though it will suffer a good one-two punch with Shutter Island and The Crazies. Expect a 55% drop next week.
The 70% drop for Dear John is pretty staggering… I expected a hit thanks to Valentine’s Day, but who’d of thought this would be the Watchmen of romantic comedies? It’s a little soon to chisel the tombstone since V-day is tomorrow, but I’m amazed how quickly it’s gone to fizzle.
Could Avatar be the first $700 million raw-dollar hit? Time will tell.
I hate to admit I saw “Valentine’s Day” . It was definitely awful. While I was watching this film , some people were so bored they walked out of the movie- and it had too many talkative & annoying teenagers . Anne Hathaway was the big highlight and the most hilarious actor in this film. She outshined Julia Roberts & the rest of the big name cast. Topher Grace & Ms. Hathaway is such a charming couple that they help eliminate much of the (directing & script ) flaws in there few scenes together. They have great physical & emotional chemistry. The top Hollywood producers need to find great material for these two because they would be wonderful in another film together.