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SUNDAY AM UPDATE: So Avatar was done in by a chick flick no less! Despite the monster winter storm on the East Coast, Relativity’s sappy military-themed love story Dear John opened to a much bigger than expected $13.8 million Friday and $12.4M Saturday (down only -10%) from 2,969 North American theaters. Which means the pic based on the Nicholas Sparks novel and distributed by Sony/Screen Gems, has broken Avatar‘s 7-week reign atop the domestic box office despite higher 3D ticket prices. G.I. Joe‘s Channing Tatum and Mamma Mia!‘s Amanda Seyfried scored a $32.4M weekend compared to Avatar‘s 23.6M. ”It’s not only the dragon slayer, but by a lot,” one Sony exec gushed to me. Dear John is also Screen Gems best ever debut and the biggest Super Bowl weekend opener, topping Hannah Montana’s $31.1M. Females made up 84% of the opening weekend audience, while 64% of the moviegoers were under age 21.
Twentieth Century Fox’s technopic took in $6.1M Friday (-18%, another amazing hold) and $11.3M Saturday for a $630M cume that’s broken every highest grossing record in Hollywood and the world. Dear John‘s overperformance is due to several factors: A running time of only 102 minutes, which offset the higher ticket prices for Avatar which clocks in at 160 minutes. And some great field marketing by Jeff Blake and his team, including a premiere on the North Carolina base at Fort Bragg as well as promotions at 51 Army bases worldwide.
Meanwhile, Lionsgate’s 3rd place From Paris With Love starring John Travolta and directed by Taken helmer Pierre Morel is very soft. The R-rated pic opened with only a $3 million debut Friday but did +33% better Saturday for $4.0M from 2,722 runs for an underperforming $8.1M weekend.
This also was the start of Crazy Heart‘s 8th week, but this marks the first fully national week of release. That’s because the Fox Searchlight film scored a Best Actor Oscar nomination for Jeff Bridges, considered the shoo-in for that category. The pic expanded into 819 theatres and will likely expand further on February 12th into 1,000+ dates. As a result, Crazy Heart reached the Top 10 this weekend for the first time in its run. It’s also having the strongest post-Oscar nod bounce.
Meanwhile, Summit Entertainment worked with exhibitors who wanted to run The Hurt Locker after it was nominated for a Best Picture Oscar. This, in spite of the fact that the DVD has been selling quite well since January 12th. The weekend estimate was $123K (+439%) playing at 110 theaters (+72). Its North American cume to date is now $13.4M.
Here’s the Top 10 as of Sunday:
1. Dear John (Relativity/Sony) NEW [2,969 Theaters]
Friday $13.8M, Saturday $12.4M, Weekend $32.4M
2. Avatar (Fox) Week 8 [3,000 Theaters]
Friday $6.1M, Saturday $11.3M, Weekend $23.6M, Cume $630
3. From Paris With Love (Lionsgate) NEW [2,722 Theaters]
Friday $3.0M, Saturday $4.0M, Weekend $8.1M
4. Edge of Darkness (Alcon/Warner Bros) Week 2 [3,066 Theaters]
Friday $2.3M, Saturday $3.5M, Weekend $7M, Cume $29M
5. Tooth Fairy (Fox) Week 3 [3,218 Theaters]
Friday $1.6M, Saturday $3.5M, Weekend $6.5M, Cume $34.3M
6. When in Rome (Disney) Week 2 [2,456 Theaters]
Friday $2.0M, Saturday $2.5M, Weekend $5.5, Cume $20.8M
7. Book of Eli (Warner Bros) Week 4 [2,820 Theaters]
Friday $1.5M, Saturday $2.5M, Weekend $4.8M, Cume $82.1M
8. Crazy Heart (Fox Searchlight) Week 8 [819 Theaters]
Friday $1.07M, Saturday $1.9M, Weekend $3.6M, Cume $11.1M
9. Legion (Sony) Week 3 [2,339 Theaters]
Friday $1.06M, Saturday $1.7M, Weekend $3.4M, Cume $34.6M
10. Sherlock Holmes (Warner Bros) Week 7 [1,805 Theaters]
Friday $790K, Saturday $1.3M, Weekend $2.6M, Cume $201.5M
THURSDAY 5 PM: Will Avatar get a Dear John letter? Is this the weekend James Cameron’s technopic falls to #2? That’s what the Hollywood experts are thinking. Online ticket sales, where buyers tend to skew young, show Relativity’s Dear John is leading Avatar on Fandango 51% to 31% — the first time Avatar has fallen out of #1 since the pic opened. This weekend would be the 8th in a row that James Cameron’s 3D technopic could stay No. 1 at the domestic box office. But distributor Sony/Screen Gems is sneaking in that sappy love story Dear John starring G.I. Joe‘s Channing Tatum and Mamma Mia!‘s Amanda Seyfried and directed by Lasse Hallström, and the studio thinks it can knock off Avatar. “They are not suckin’ on a crack pipe. It’s possible,” a Fox exec admitted to me just now.
Both PG-13 pics look to make around $24M this weekend unless the expected East Coast monster snowstorm depresses attendance. But Dear John‘s running time is only 102 minutes, which could offset the higher ticket prices for Avatar which clocks in at 160 minutes. And then there’s the Super Bowl which will hit Avatar harder. As one of my box office gurus analyzes, “Dear John needs to beat Avatar on Friday. But Avatar probably wins Saturday. Then Dear John should win Super Bowl Sunday. Should be fun.”
Also stealing some of Avatar’s testosterone will be John Travolta/Jonathan Rhys-Meyer’s R-rated From Paris With Love directed by the real star of Taken, director Pierre Morel. This Lionsgate pic has an even shorter running time of 95 minutes so it may open to $12M for the weekend. “Paris has some life to it,” a rival studio exec tells me. “Decent awareness, best among males over age 25. That does not bode well for the Sunday spanking they will take.”
For more estimates listed by title, see box office results here...Editor-in-Chief Nikki Finke - tip her here.
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I’m sure FOX is shaking in their boots…not.
Considering News Corp just lost $500 million in an anti-trust suit, and the rest of their profit will end up going to pay off the losses on Tooth Fairy, Percy Jackson, and possibly Predators Reloaded, I’d definitely be concerned if I were them. [Oh, and Marmapuke. Damn, who the hell thought that one would make money...?]
Well, I mean in the case of Avatar, I don’t really think they care. But you are correct in that they can’t seem to put out anything that’s makes money lately.
500 million was almost all charged in q2 and most of avatar’s profits were in q3. percy jackson is expected to do decently… tooth fairy was cheap.
Nope, they just paid off the $500 mil this year. And Tooth Fairy was cheap, but still over-priced for a kid-flick, especially when it has to cover for Percy. I so can’t wait for the Murdoch Reich to go down.
i was at the premiere of DEAR JOHN and i really loved the movie. While it’s not AVATAR in spectacle it’s really enjoyable. I hope this movie is a hit!
Blah, blah, blah. What a hack you are. Avatar takes the weekend again with no problem. Dear John is the best of the new openings and Dear John drags behind. So, a rival studio exec is your source?
Blah, blah, blah. What a hack avatar troll you are. you just have to carry on the PR troll campaign i see? hmmm? avatar has got to be the only top gross film to have produced the meanest most vile criticism-adverse “fans” i have ever read. just pathetic & hopeless. so glad i didnt get on this train & never will.
And yet Avatar has “only” done $630 million (US) and counting.
Wow, you really showed us.
posted by elvis lives: “And yet Avatar has “only” done $630 million (US) and counting”
“Wow, you really showed us.”
who was showing you what, elvis?
…and why does john smith call out someone who is glad about dear john’s performance????
gee that almost covers all the preproduction, production, post production and advertising. That amount is gross, overall Avatar made some bucks but not the money they are talking. Cost to gross its FAR from the top in flat out dollars and proportial.
Really? Did you take into account the international market? Avatar has already grossed over $1 billion more than any film ever (with the exception of Cameron’s other film, Titanic). Currently at $2.2 billion in world box office sales and going strong…. I think you could say this one was a success.
No, The Dark Knight fans are the most disgusting and immature when it comes to criticizing their beloved movie.
You were saying? Dear John beat Avatar, NO PROBLEM. HA!
Also do not forget the northeast is suppose to get hit with a big snow storm this weekend.
Amanda Seyfried is the next “America’s Sweetheart.” I foresee her commanding huge money and headlining a wide variety of films. She has the talent and the beauty.
With those bug eyes of hers she’s a safe female lead for chick flicks. She’s no good-looking enough to seem threatening to other women. But she can never be a Megan Fox/Angelina Jolie-like fantasy dream girl for guys. Her crossover appeal to male audiences will remain limited to non-existent.
In Jennifer’s Body, they tried to dress her down as a nerdy wallflower and she still looked better than plastic, dead-behind-the-eyes Megan Fox. Also, Fox & Jolie only put male asses into seats when they’re secondary sex objects to extravagant cgi-infused action, so their benchmark will be easy to eclipse if she goes on to expand the range that she’s shown in her relatively limited exposure even further while continuing to dabble in date-friendly stuff like DJ. I’ve got a strong feeling about this girl’s potential of being a megastar even though I hear a lot of consternation from guys such as yourself about her “bug eyes” weirding them out. I think her eyes actually bring a fitting symmetry to her since they’re consistent with the robustness of her lips and chest.
Limited to you maybe, but not to me – she’s beautiful. Just because you don’t think much of her, doesn’t mean others agree with your taste. She has a quality about her – maybe she won’t be a superstar soon, but she’s got something good “going on”, on the screen. With a good role she can become big.
True. Not all straight guys are caveman era douchebags who equate slutty looking with gorgeous. I like natural beauties thank you very much especially since Fox had work done.
Amanda Seyfried was quite va-va-voomish in Mean Girls and as the doomed Lily Kane in the first season of Veronica Mars. Just because she drabbed down in Mamma Mia and really drabbed down for Jennifer’s Body doesn’t mean normal red-blooded males WITH EYES wouldn’t like her. Put down the Hater-Ade.
BTW, if you think women don’t go to Angelina Jolie movies, you’ve never met one in real life. You don’t know how many times I’ve heard women say, “I’m straight, but I’d totally do her if I had the chance.” No, I’m not kidding.
I’ll take Amanda over Megan Fox and pillow-lips Jolie any day of the week.
I’ll be contrarian here and say AVATAR gets another #1. I assume a slight drop-off from last week, nothing can go on forever.
But I am less than enamored with Seyfried as “America’s Sweetheart” and while this might be a good Valentine’s Day warm-up movie, my guess is that AVATAR still ekes out a win, mostly by the other movies weakness.
This pile of crap movie “Dear John” won’t win the weekend. Projects like this should be tankes anyway.
While I predicted AVATAR would be one top of the Box office until Wolfman/Valentine’s Day/Percy Jackson come out, I always wondered if DEAR JOHN could overtake it. I don’t see AVATAR getting that big of a box office bump due to the Awards since almost everyone saw it and due to Superbowl Sunday effecting it MUCH more than DEAR JOHN. I see it being a very close race and that DEAR JOHN has a VERY good chance a being number 1. All of the girls I know at my High School are OBSESSED with this movie and at my local theaters it has HIGH pre-order tickets.
Also, I see FROM PARIS WITH LOVE bolting ahead of projections for some reason and closer to the gross of TAKEN’s opening weekend, but without the legs even with the oversaturation of R-rated flicks.
However, NEXT WEEK will be EXTREMELY interesting. All 3 of the new pics will most likely open in the high twentys, low thirties, but of course some will break out. While PERCY JACKSON is the most likely to flop and open in the 20s, it also has the biggest breakout potential. Most HARRY POTTER knock-off looking films flop, but this one actually looks good. VALENTINE”S DAY looks like He’s Just Not That Into You but on steroids with such a giant cast, but most people feel as if they already saw this movie. But with a prime release date, I see this oepning in the high 30s, but DEAR JOHN’s breakout potential can take away a few million. WOLFMAN seems most likely to underwhelm, but I see it opening most likely at $27M-33M. However it can also totally flop and open up in the high-teens or be a smash in the $40s but the R-rating is iffy.
Also this week, the NE snowstorm will affect the box office negatively, but by how much????
FROM PARIS WITH LOVE IS D.O.A., deal with it.
Odd, considering the GREAT TITLE. I mean, can’t you just picture a group of teen boys going out to see that action movie with the guy hanging out of the car with the rocket launcher, and sidling up to the ticket booth, and asking for five tickets to…From Paris with Love? Yeah, me neither.
Who was the female exec who greenlit this masterpiece, boasting about how it would appeal to women?
Avatar is entering it’s eighth week, it’s very possible that it will just plummet at this point. Not that I’m a hater, it’s just that everyone who wanted to see it has. Or it could keep going. I don’t really know.
I don’t think that there’s anything about From Paris With Love that will draw in audiences. I’m probably going to see it, but I’ll be surprised if I like it.
Dear John suffers from opening the week before Valentine’s Day. Women with significant others will be focusing on next weekend. Straight single guys will not see this movie. I actually think that a lot of people may delay it until next weekend rather than Valentine’s Day. I wouldn’t be surprised if Dear John has a modest opening, but a very small drop the next weekend. If it’s any good, it could benefit strongly from word of mouth.
I think that Valentine’s Day may bomb. I emphasis the word MAY. A movie sells itself on spectacle or story. When it can sell itself on both, it tends to do very well. Valentine’s Day seems to sell itself on a marketing gimmick. It has a shotgun blast of star power and relationships. Is there a central story? I can’t tell from the trailer. I don’t go to romantic movies when I can avoid it, but it seems that successful ones are based on a couple with good chemistry. Even Avatar managed to do that.
Women might wanna give second thoughts before wasting their 9
bucks for that mish-mash that’s Valentine’s Day,JMO!!!
I’ve seen too many ads for Dear John, and I didn’t think it looked good, or would do well. However, after reading your post, I fully understand the logic behnid thinking that this might do well.
That said, in the over-under, I’ll take the under, as I will throw out $17 million for their weekend number.
Does anybody else remember the 90s sitcom called “Dear John”? Loved that show.
Yes, i remember that show! The guy from Taxi was the main character i believe. A bunch of neurotic people in group therapy and their stories. It was a hit. Good theme song and was on for a number of years. Whatever happened to good sitcoms? Why is everything shot in a “documentary” style now?
Good sitcom idea… bunch of neurotic characters in acting class in LA trying to make it. Kind of like “Dear John” sitcom, but done a little differently. Any takers??
At this point, it doesn’t even matter.
“Avatar” is at $2,077,338,293 right now, with a domestic take of $603,789,348. It will make near to $2.5 billion theatrically, and it’s going to make about $650 to $700 million domestically. It hasn’t even fallen over 28% in 50 days.
It’s already beaten “Titanic” in domestic and international and is the #1 film of all time. That’s it.
Everything after this is just breaking its own astonishing records. If, after all of this, after 7 weeks at #1, it falls to #2, or even #3, I don’t really think anyone is going to have a problem with it.
It’s beaten every film ever made (n.i.a.). I think that’s enough.
Like the snowstorm that crushed Avatar’s opening weekend? Don’t pretend Dear John would have cleared $40 million this weekend easy without bad weather: It’s a toss-up, and if DJ manages to beat it, so what? That doesn’t speak to any strength on its behalf… or even a weakness.
I finally saw Avatar this week and I am simply amazed at all the negative stuff I’ve read on this site about the film. I was expecting the story to be non-existent, the movie too long (it was) and some laughable dialogue.
What I got was a movie going experience like never before… as well a raised bar on visual storytelling. I will not even entertain any conversation that this film should not win Best Picture. I loved The Hurt Locker but you can’t really compare them. The Hurt Locker was the best compared to all the others but you must give Best Picture to a film with the scope of Avatar.
Up In The Air – shouldn’t even be in the same building. It was a well executed movie and Paramount is trying real hard to tell the public how great it is…..and I guess some are buying it…. but really? Is that Clooney performance any different from all his other performances. I like the guy – but that film wasn’t even in the same league as others I’ve seen this year.
Avatar has no story? What? The whole thing was a story. I look forward to seeing it again in the next few weeks. I still think 3 hours is too long to sit in a theater tho.
It’s just that the movie is very successful, and success breeds envy and hate. Just like when Titanic started making a crap load of money, the hate ratcheted up to an obnoxious level. Lots of people are mad because Avatar is stealing the thunder from a lot of the smaller indie films out there, and made more money than their favorite films.
whats been the biggest “turn off” is the “obnoxious level” of the avatar “fans”.
name one “indie fan” on any deadline hollywood thread who posted an angry comment due to avatar’s success taking away from their fave indie flick? just one. I just dont see those kind of comments anywhere.
in fact, most indie fans get a kick how cameron generates his creativity outside of the mainstream company politics & financing…although he does need it to get the final financing & distribution & advert support.but so did paranormal & district 9 for that matter.
the line between indie & corporate has never been more blurred.
If avatar has generated negative buzz its due to people who didnt find the plot very original, the bloated steroid ticket prices being ignored in regards to avatar’s gross “record”, and MOST ESPECIALLY DUE to a backlash AGAINST the angst, anger, and fanaticism of the avatar fan pr troll machine.
i rest my case. please dont prove me right next time.
I think you have it backwards. You should go back to the threads prior to Avatar’s release to see all the hate and skepticism being heaped against the film. There was way more “hate” and cynicism than love, that’s for sure. The A-#1 troll here is Whiskey and he’s had it out for Avatar ever since Jim Cameron raped his sister. I love movies of all sizes – not going to draw lines or sides between indie and big, they all have their purpose. But my main take away here is that there sure are a lot of people out there who are threatened by Avatar’s success.
Unfortunately it was a story we’ve all seen before. Again & again & again. Ferngully, Pocahontas, Dances With Wolves, Last Samurai, Return of the Jedi… Stale, rehashed and utterly predictable, unless you were literally born yesterday. This thing ain’t winning for screenplay.
Congratulations, Liz, you’re literally the *first* person to point that out.
Really – you’ve never seen the “Western civilization (proxy for the U.S.) invades perfect, peaceful ‘primitive’ society to plunder their resoruces, rape their superior culture, etc., etc. etc.”? Really?
That’s really held it back.
I don’t get it. What game or toy is “Dear John” based on?
What game or toy was “Avatar” based on?
It’s based on a Nicholas Sparks novel. Same difference.
it’s 9.45 pm in Philly. barely any snow here…
“Since the pic won’t be hurt by Super Bowl Sunday”? That’s a pretty dumb, sexist, and blanket statement. Football in general and the SB in particular probably has more female cross-over appeal than any other sport. And who do you think generally is taking women to see Dear John? Hmmm, possibly boyfriends and husbands. Dear John may have a great weekend, it may win the weekend, but don’t assume a “chick-flick” is immune to the affects of the SB.
protip: men and women are different
I’m a chick. The Super Bowl would definitely beat out a movie like Dear John for my attention. With an extra 15 yards for unnecessary roughness. So would a baseball game. Even a Padres baseball game. Just about any activity, watching or doing. In your face, lazy Hollywood assumptions!
I dont believe lesbians make up the dear john core audience.
Running time only matters, Finke, if the movie has strong scores in the want-to-see anyway. More shows of something the audience at large is soft on seeing, like From Paris With Love (worst title of the albeit fresh year, maybe?) means nothing. When there’s something the audience is chomping at the bit to see, then running time can make a difference, although with multiple screens and digital prints, this too doesn’t mean as much as it did in the old days. So to presume From Paris With Love might do a little better because its only 95 minutes long is naive. And “awareness” means nothing if the first choice and want-to-see numbers aren’t there.
And I bet the awareness numbers on From Paris With Love weren’t that hot, either.
And really? Now your sources at the various studios are so eager to see themselves quoted they resort to ridiculous lines like “they’re not suckin on a crack pipe.” Ooh, how non-pc and internet-y of a quote that is. Gee, we’d never see that quote in Variety or the LA Times. Puh-lease. Don’t try so hard.
I am happy for Channing Tatum. He gets a lot of crap for not being a super great actor but he still has time to get better. I thought he was pretty good in Dear John
I know it’s news but … crowing about DEAR JOHN beating-down-smashing-crushing AVATAR for the No. 1 spot this weekend?? Are you kidding?? It’s the equivalent of some dick fanboy writing in his Feedback Message to Harry Knowles at Ain’t It Cool News: “I’M NUMBER ONE!!!” BFD.
AVATAR made 2 billion dollars. AND it just got 9 Academy Award Nominations. I’m sure the makers of DEAR JOHN would sell their souls to make 1/10th that amount plus one good review. . .
jesus christ, fellating Cameron on this message board isn’t going to benefit you nerds in any way, why do you keep it up?
dude we know its not going to help Cameron and stop complaining about people who like AVATAR we can post whatever we want like you and the only reason that dear john will knock off AVATAR is because AVATAR has been out for seven weeks dear john is a new movie ok so calm down and get over the fact that AVATAR may lose its number 1 spot we have gotten over 2 billion dollars and still counting dear john will never get that far i’d rather see AVATAR 20 times than watch dear john once
Ha! Spoken like a true virgin.
LOL nice ownage of that guy. I mean, I’m an Avatar fan, but that was funny.
you should sign off your posts with “Never Been Kissed (except by Mom)”
$2 Billion, yes. Academy award nominations and statuettes are now a joke outside of about 5 counties in the US. Right next to “Nobel Peace Prize”.
Whiskey!
I can’t believe I beat you to the punch. Did you see the big news! Avatar is going to lose to Dear John!
Pull the plug Rupert Murdoch! If Avatar can’t beat a little movie like Dear John, don’t embarrass yourself with Avatar 2!
(Just being sarcastic and predicting what Whiskey might say).
Weird. I thought AVATAR would eke out a win. Note however BOTH Dear John and AVATAR pulled in some fairly low numbers. Yeah, the storm and Superbowl and everything.
But heck the GRUDGE pulled in $40 million its opening week-end. Part of AVATAR’s victories have been over some fairly lousy movies. If you want an action spectacle, AVATAR is it right now.
Thats separate to how much money AVATAR made to the News Corp bottom line. You’ll note News declined to book revenue this last Quarter and predicts most of the revenue will come in next two quarters. Murdoch is predicting a huge DVD revenue. Hahahaha! DVD revenue off a 3-D extravaganza (Fox won’t release a 3-D DVD/Blu-Ray) edition.
My guess is that a lot of the foreign revenue won’t come in (particularly from “rule of law optional” nations like China) and that which does will probably go to financing partners. There were some cryptic statements made regarding financing partnerships explaining both the delays in booking a deal for AVATAR 2 and probably box office revenue.
If movies like AVATAR continue to balloon out of control in a global recession (China may be double dipping now), studios like Fox will have to give up the upside to financing partners and a lot fewer of them will be made because it’s not the pre-Crash Wall Street anymore.
I think AVATAR will go back up to #1 next week, but … clearly its on its downswing and will get replaced by the first big Spring Action movie. Its theatrical box office is on a downswing and thats likely all there is for the movie.
Oh, it’s even better. Earlier in the thread he actually predicted that Avatar would be #1 this weekend. That’s why he’s not gloating. This guy is NEVER right.
Amanda Seyfried in IMAX 3D would be a soothing spectacle of Avatar proportions.
AGREED!
No way Dear John made $15 mil…that is insane. I thought it might make $15 million for the entire weekend.
I always knew “Avatar” would be a flop.
(that’s a joke)
Damn, didn’t think such a shitty movie was going to be the one to take out Avatar. But damn near 2 months and it was still #1, that doesn’t happen very often. If anyone wants to criticize any of the small-minded movie-goers out there, you should criticize the people who actually want to see “Dear John”. Didn’t know so many females had such bad taste in celluloid.
I’d STILL waiting to see another movie stay at Number One for SEVEN WEEKS, like AVATAR. From the list of movies being released for the rest of the year, I think AVATAR has already won that crown, too. And as for DEAR JOHN… it will have all the staying power of a Hostess Twinkie.
Uh-oh! Hostess Twinkies have a shelf life of like 7 years! I guess that means Dear John is going to be with us for quite some time!