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UPDATES iPad May Have Sold 700,000 Units Already
Apple today announced that it sold over 300,000 iPads in the U.S. as of midnight Saturday, April 3 — nowhere near the 700,000 units predicted. These sales included deliveries of pre-ordered iPads to customers, deliveries to channel partners, and sales at Apple Retail Stores. Apple also announced that iPad users downloaded over 1 million apps from Apple’s App Store and over 250,000 ebooks from its iBookstore during the first day. But the more interesting story is how Apple analyst Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray and others blew the iPad sales estimates. BusinessInsider was first to have the note that Munster put out explaining how his iPad predictions were twice what Apple actually sold because he overestimated the online pre-orders. Therefore, he is lowering his 2010 iPad sales estimate to 4.3 million units from 5.6 million:
Where We Went Wrong. We believe that we misgauged the online pre-orders received for the iPad starting on March 12. We originally estimated online-sales to be about 75% of all iPad sales; however, it appears that online pre-orders made up about 50% of the sales, resulting in a significant unit difference.
Deja Vu: Wrong On Launch Day, Right On Theme. We were overly optimistic on our launch day estimates of 600-700k, similar to the iPhone launch, when we were also too aggressive. With the original iPhone we estimated sales at launch of 500k and Apple sold 270k, which concerned investors about the long-term viability of the iPhone. In CY10, we estimate iPhone sales will be 36.0m and generate 39% of Apple’s revenue.
How the iPad launch compares to iPhone launches. Earlier today Apple announced the sale of 300k iPads on Sat. (4/3), the first day of sales. This is a sell-in unit number, including online pre-orders. The iPad launch (300k) was slightly ahead of launch of the original iPhone (270k on launch weekend). These launches are comparable, as they were both US-only, with similarly priced products. We note that Apple sold 1.12m iPhones in the first full quarter and we now estimate Apple will sell 1.3m iPads in the Jun-10 quarter (essentially a full quarter), also slightly ahead of the original iPhone launch.
Editor-in-Chief Nikki Finke - tip her here.
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Only Munster predicted 600,000 = 700,000 and that was AFTER THE FACT.
Estimates before Saturday tended to be in the 100,000 range. Which means Apple still blew away any “expert” estimates.
300,000 was Apple’s announcement for one day only (Saturday).
Making the launch weekend a little more complicated was the fact Sunday was Easter Day and many of the launch retailers (such as Best Buy) were closed — and consumers had religious or family obligations.
Plus many of us had pre-ordered the combined WiFi/3G version (the only version that gives you real-time GPS/compass readings for such programs as GPS maps by Garmin, Magellan, Tom-Tom, Google, etc) which doesn’t come our until May.
Don’t be too negative on the iPad, this is a global game-changer.
Not surprising. The Wifi-only model probably sold only to Apple-die-hards as the machine’s true potential is the freedom it provides. And there’s not much freedom when you’re tied to a wifi signal. I’m sure when the ATT version comes out, that will sell plenty.
People who are using devices like the MiFi have exactly as much freedom as the 3G iPad will have.
Actually, they have more freedom, because up to 5 computers can use the Internet access through a MiFi box. Also, you don’t have to use AT&T for the 3G access, which still has very bad service in SF and NYC.
There were also orders for the 3G version out later this month. Where do those numbers fall in place? I think that version, will sell more units as i think most tech savvy customers will at least like the option of a constant connect when they choose to use it.
nice business ploy of padding up numbers to simulate a buying frenzy. yeah i l know a lot of people bought it anyway, but anything less than stellar numbers is embarrassing considering all of the hype.
“Why Analysts Were Wrong”? Because analysts are stupid monkey boys who don’t learn from their mistakes.
Apple’s iPad sales are impressive – 300K in 24 hours compared to 270K iPhones in 72 hours (not even including pre-sold 3G-equipped iPads). It’ll be interesting to see how fast they sell 1 million. (For those of you keeping score at home, Apple’s sold over 75 million of the iPhone and iPod Touch.)
And btw, how many of you knew that Apple is now the third biggest company in America by market capitalization?
1. $322 billion – Exxon Mobil
2. $257 billion – Microsoft
3. $216 billion – Apple
4. $209 billion – Walmart
5. $182 billion – Google
Bow to the Steve! BOW TO THE STEVE!!!
i wish my company sold 300k new products on the first day.
Oh dear Nicki. You’re treading on hallowed ground. Watch out for the fatwahs with your name on it issued from Camp Waco.
wsj being prescient – now that would be a story
but seriously
who has 500-800 bucks so burning a hole in their pocket easter sunday they want to go wait in line at burning man
i always thought jesus would be a mac guy but i don’t know that he’d care about the sales figures for ipad on sunday –
the ipad will sell – wait for it – wait some more – 7 fucktrillion – and soon to be according to the ol’ journal, that’s ‘a lot’.
Have to mention those of that industry that play games at time like this in an effort to short Apple Stock. In reality Apple has a product line of total envy and continue to create products that ultimately demand to be owned, and the reasons they do are antithetical to the rest of the industry.
Comparing iPad sales to iPhone sales is, obviously, moronic.
Should every shoe be appropriate for church? Or hiking? Or the office? Or hopscotch on the playground at recess?
I think the honest genius of Apple is they make meaningful attempts to expand the space, to include those who have yet to connect, always trying to reach the next group who think of themselves as “the rest of us”.
It’s not just about price, but about making something that will let the technology shy enjoy the benefits of technology without being subservient to the nerd in the house. If you look at the iPad and it makes you wonder why anyone needs it, the more likely reality is the device was never intending for you. Don’t worry, and don’t feel neglected, there are tons of nerdy things for tech folks to enjoy – this beauty happens to be for someone who needed something different.
John Whorfin pretty much nails it above. Financial analysts are jokes. They make shit up, and then it’s somehow “news” when they turn out to be wrong.
Somehow, I don’t think anyone at Apple is wringing their hands in worry over the number of iPads they’ve sold thus far. They’re probably barely able to hide their erections.
What’s that ye say? Wall Street analysts missing the mark? In this day and age? Prepare the guillotine!
#1 Apple products suck…percentage of Apple products in the ‘real’ business world? Ummm…is it even a calculable number??? Very tiny anyway. Not all of us game or draw for a living…some of us have ‘real’ jobs that require ‘real’ computers.
#2 iPad = feminine hygiene product…what a really dumb name.
#3 Everyone gets really sick of the apple/mac appostles out there who try their very hardest to make it sound like apples were created by a sovereign being…guess again…steve jobs is a dopey looking geek…
#4 iPods are fine media players, but they aren’t the only thing out there…
Part of the problem with iPad sales is that its intended audience is fundamentally book readers. These are people who like curling up with a good book, by themselves. That doesn’t translate to them standing in line for hours on Saturday to adopt early or even buying a first generation device. They’re a “wait and see” group that carefully analyzes the the situation before making a purchase. That said, once they do embrace the technology, they’ll be very loyal to it. I suspect that the sales will start off slow but then reach a consistent level of sales that will make Apple quite happy.
Additionally, if Apple can get this into the schools, look out. 3 small colleges have already bought their entire enrollment and faculty iPads. Once Apple gets a deal with the textbook companies then that market will explode.
But what the hell do I know? I don’t get paid six figures to make wrong predictions.
Had a chance to hang w. the iPad this past weekend. Eh…
Plop an Apple logo on an Etch-a-Sketch and that too would sell those numbers. Lotta kids out there with mom’s credit card.
I guess their gamble of getting sales through hype didn’t work out.
It is too overpriced, and too kludgy, for a game-changer. No flash support, no widespread 3G availability, tiny hard drive.
What is the device good for, assuming this is fixed and its cheaper (a lot cheaper)?
Easy content consumption, of books, movies, potentially a lot cheaper. A quick and easy download. Now, if you buy a CD, you can pretty much play it on anything. Same with a physical book, read it anywhere. Or a DVD. With a computer file, you need a player able to play it, an Ipod, a laptop, an Ipad.
Make this thing cheap, around $100, fast, connected via 3G, anywhere anytime, so I can see Shrek for free (with ads) or a book (with ads) and now we are talking. THAT is a game changer.
But it has to be really, really cheap. Like in low-level Ipod cheap. Ipods and Itunes really killed the music business, because people buy singles not CDs. And your music is on the go. Everywhere. The real money is in concerts, or perhaps, maybe, streaming for free (with ads). Such as Lala.com, Pandora, etc.
An Ipad selling 100 million, at $100 a pop? Its a media consumption device, not for work, and the implication is that it could do Hollywood what Itunes/Ipods did to Music. Hollow out those DVD/Blu-Ray sales with much cheaper downloads. Meaning an author, or actor, or producer, or writer, would have to make as much money going to conventions, selling autographs, meet-greet, talks, Q&A, the equivalent of live concerts. The big stars might make more money. Everyone else will be scrapping.
Of course, Netbooks are cheaper and could get there first. Can a Linux based netbook, playing Flash and with a better Web Browser, bundled with a 3G card and service, sell for around $100? Probably. And being a real computer, you could play Itunes type music while using an e-Reader. In a deep and lasting recession, that’s probably the smarter bet, unless Apple can get a lot cheaper a lot faster.
I plan to run to Best Buy and get an 64GB iPad with 3G….as soon as it costs around what it is worth, about $350-$400.
iPad: the best coffee-table book of the past 10 years!
An analyst is like a reporter but they can just make shit up.
But then reporters quote the analysts and call it a story.
So which is worse?
I really think the HP Slate is gonna be the Sony Betamax of 2010
it will be better, faster and it will make more sense to have it, but it will lose because apple is now a religion and people will buy it if they need it or not, or buy it before they realize there is no reason to have it.
the HP Slate will have a USB port, Camera, 1 gig of space, ports for micro sd cards and flash cards and it will be able to handle Flash website, unlike the Ipad and its $300 cheaper..dont sleep on the Slate,
Apple announced that today they have exceed 3 Million iPad sales. That’s 80 days after product introduction and before the second round of international sales expansion (see http://www.macrumors.com/2010/06/22/apple-announces-three-million-ipads-sold-in-80-days/ ).
If you try to buy an iPad in stores, you’ll probably encounter a 1-2 week waitlist. Apple’s website is citing 7-10 day delays.
Apple rolled out version 4 of the iOS this week for the iPhone and iPod Touch. This upgrade should be available for the iPad in the next few weeks. The upgrade brings superior ways to organize data, view e-mail from multiple sources in one in box, rapidly switch between applications, and have background processing in third-party applications. Pandora released one of those first background-running apps on Monday.
3M units in less than 3 months is a pretty amazing number. AFAICT, it exceeds all of those analyst estimates. It seems clear in hindsight that Apple was ramping up their supply chain slowly and carefully for this product.
The world will be a far more interesting place when competent Android devices step into this product niche. So far, that hasn’t happened, and it’s clear sailing ahead for Apple. Their market cap ($250B) has leapfrogged Microsoft’s ($225B) in the last few months.
I think the ipad shoud be sold for less money