
For more estimates listed by title, see box office results here...CHICAGO (April 16, 2010) –– Media Derivatives (“MDEX”) is pleased to announce that it has received approval from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a designated contract market. Media Derivatives will operate under the name The Trend Exchange® (“TrendEx”). TrendEx is the first new exchange to offer innovative products that has been approved since 2004 and one of only 7 US based commodities exchanges. TrendEx is primarily focused on the development of a variety of products to benefit the entertainment industry with one if its initially proposed products being designed to help mitigate risk and enhance the successful financing of motion pictures through trading of opening weekend domestic box office receipts. TrendEx, like other CFTC approved exchanges, will consider other products to offer beyond those of just the media industry.
Founder and CEO Robert S. Swagger said The Trend Exchange welcomes collaboration from all segments of the entertainment industry in the development of market-based products that provide maximum risk management potential for the participants. Launch of the exchange’s first products is anticipated in the third quarter.
“Like all Americans, we cherish the entertainment industry,” Mr. Swagger said. “We believe that our products, designed in partnership with the broad industry constituency, will help better manage economic uncertainty and financial volatility, thus enhancing opportunities for success.”
Mr. Swagger added: “The recent attention to our initially proposed product is normal and healthy. Historically, initial product skeptics have eventually become the greatest adopters through a process of time, education and communication that demonstrates the many benefits of futures market for the US Economy. Now that our exchange is approved, we will resume the work we’ve been doing throughout the entertainment industry.”
By designing its products for institutional traders and commercial users, TrendEx intends to fulfill critical financing needs. Historically production companies have had no effective way to minimize the risk of producing major motion pictures, which cost on average $107 million per title.
“The Trend Exchange will fulfill this crucial risk-management need by utilizing the time-tested exchange-traded futures market model that has served agriculture, industry and commerce in America for nearly two centuries,” Swagger said. “The regulatory review and oversight of the CFTC is rigorous – and necessary to inform and protect all participants in these markets. We look forward to working collaboratively with all parties to set the highest standards for these new risk-mitigation markets. Furthermore, we wish to thank the CFTC Chairman, Commissioners and staff for the countless hours of hard work and dedication throughout this process.”
The Trend Exchange is privately funded by Veriana (www.veriana.com ) and is in discussions with several key industry participants regarding what it deems as possible strategic partnerships. The company’s directors and advisors include prominent members of the entertainment and financial services industries. In addition, the exchange’s senior management is comprised of many well known professionals from the Chicago futures and options exchange community. The Trend Exchange’s corporate offices are located in Scottsdale, AZ with exchange operations office in Chicago.


Good. The industry’s nonsense argument that movies will get “bad publicity” becuase of low prices is belied by the fact that HSX has been projecting performance for years.
Don’t worry it will be like the horses.
Friday, pack the theaters.
Saturday let it rid.
Sunday, half way pack the theaters.
Monday pick up your check.
This cannot bode well for our business.
If a film generates bad buzz, it tanks regardless of whether it warrants it or not. This has always been the case. If people have money invested in a film’s demise, you can damn sure bet that bad buzz will amplify. This won’t destroy the industry. It’ll just destroy some films and lives. But hey, as long as somebody makes a profit, right?
In the ratings game, this concept gets 1 bag of popcorn out of 5.
If this is U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s idea of business innovation, the future just got darker. Future derivatives are legalized gambling and this is just another example of how most Wall Street mavericks have zero new ideas (but deserve credit for being great scam artists). They just turned an online game into a sanctioned derivatives market. CRAZY!
i will take under on kick ass!!!
This just feels evil.
If you can’t beat em’ join em’.
When does it start?
Will you be able to bet against a movie? Short it’s value? Then all you have to do is go on a big badmouthing campaign and you make $$$$.
Love it. Now if society can band together and create a “Runaway Film Opening” and sway the overall b.o. of a film…
This doesn’t bode well for Furry Vengeance is all I’m saying.
And of course this is coming out of Chicago, the epicenter of corrupt deals, hoods and politicians. Perhaps they can get Mr. “Change” to appoint a czar to oversee it all.
(1) The company is based in Scottsdale, with operations in Chicago (like many, many businesses worldwide).
(2) How exactly are we blaming Obama for this? Take your political ranting over to FOX News. Let’s keep this on the entertainment business.
Mr. Swagger?
Maybe Hollywood could just try to make a better product? And you know, make money that way? Maybe?
Unfortunately in today’s day and age, the better product isn’t what makes the most money.
These kind of “performance” worries might drive execs to start investing in Viagra…
Looks like the script of Wall Street 3 just wrote itself.
Isn’t there a way for filmmakers to opt out if this corrupt system? If I were making a film I would die if the studio placed a bet that the film, I was making with a passion, fail. I guess this is the new American way of life for the new millennium; screwing your fellow citizen so you can make a buck. And on top of that it’s legal. Pass me the vaseline…
I don’t see how investors will have enough information to make intelligent trades. Most investor will not have actually seen the movie. They will be basing their position on information on the web — which is largely controlled by the studios. Studios will have better inform because they will have seen the film, and have test screenings results.
From what I understand the trading period will start 30 days before the release, and then end the day before release. By then all decisions that create risk have been made, and the studios will largely have a good read on the outcome. Where, outside investors will mostly be working from the information the studios a leaking. Imagine that a studio goes out and stars shorting a film 3 weeks before release, while at the same time, running a massive marketing campaign. You would have to be crazy to that bet.
This might be different if you could buy into films a year before release — oh, you can, just buy the stock of the studio!
Wow. I’m not sure which is scarier. That this got approved or that there is more outrage over the WME firings. /
Admittedly, the ridiculous “WE OWN YOU BITCHES!” err.. “confidentiality breach” firings are horrible and heart-string pulling but this is far more terrifying. /
It fails to appreciate that science 101 lesson about the influences of being observed. This market would be a great idea if it existed in a void where it couldn’t influence movies but it doesn’t. Nor is TrendEx’s corny example anywhere close to similar. Movies aren’t as unpredictable as the weather, petulance, sunshine, volcanoes, harvest machinery availability, or rascally rabbits (and crops aren’t as easy to sabotage as movies). /
The SEC just set the SS Hollywood sailing without any lifeboats and unfortunately the passengers are Directors, Editors, Designers, Crew, and of course the talent, in 3rd class steerage. Icebergs beware! We’re comin to get ya.
There are dozens, if not hundreds, of web sites right now that offer box office prediction contests and/or promote analytical models and strategies for calculating box office performance.
The internet is like “word of mouth” on steroids. Once the movie release is announced, the public will quickly pass judgement on box office expectations. This happens right now in unregulated, purely speculative cyberspace.
The Trend Exchange proposes to bring this existing, unregulated speculation into a regulated exchange-based marketplace.
There are many parties that are at financial risk with the production and distribution of a movie. They’ve already estimated internally what the likely box office return needs to be for them to profit from the movie. These instruments can realistically be used to offset some of the risk that a movie expected to bring in 50 million will only bring in 20-30 million.
The Trend Exchange will provide them an option to offset their existing financial risk, which is what existing futures markets provide.
Futures trading is about managing risk through price discovery and risk transfer. It is about bringing standards, transparency and integrity to the management of economic risks that already exist.
Caveat! If we peasants are to be let in on the business of entertainment, you know it’s a desperation move. Share the…failure.
If a script can’t find money or stand alone, maybe it should not be made? What I mean is, if the big guys have no risk. Why make a good movie? The CFTC just took the risk out of making MORE crap.Just keep throwing crap if one sticks great.
Help me on this CFTC. A script/movie is not tangible like corn gold or oil. It can not be graded like gas (A,B,C grades of corn,or .999 gold) it is art.
Quick question will the bet be on the script or the finished movie? If you bet on a script and, the Cftc broker told you about the script and you put your money in on the script,but the finished movie is not a money maker. That will be fraud? How will it be Sold? How maney old ladies will loose there houses on this one? I can hear the BROKERS now. TOM CRUSE, BRADD PITT, MILEY CYRIS?, and ELVIS YES ELVIS, and did I mention there may be a part for your TALENTED granddaughter. It will be a EPIC tale about a blade of grass!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Thanks
Rob T
Thi$ is gonna be like stealin candy from the candy counter. Bring it on!!!!!
Fraud.