From Deadline|London editor Tim Adler: That was the message at today’s confab in London organized by industry think-tank the British Screen Advisory Council. Claire Enders, managing director of Enders Analysis, said that Enders pointed out that whatever technological panic there’s been over the past 20 years, the same five Hollywood studios are still at the top of the heap. Technology is “lifting studios to a brighter and brighter future. If you’re a studio then you’re in luck. It’s just bad luck for everybody else”.
She also poured cold water on long-tail theory. This is the idea that people would be buying older, more obscure movies or books because of infinite digital shelf space. Instead, said Enders, all we’ve seen is the blockbuster gobbling up even more dollars. The way that search engine algorithms work just creates more demand for bigger hits. Although iTunes has 13 million tracks listed, Enders pointed out, 10 million of those have never made a sale. “The long tail is rubbish,” she concluded.


Claire Enders is talking garbage. Music and movies are two different businesses. Just ask Netflix.
Well, in music we’ve seen that near infinite choice leads to success only for buzzworthy titles, especially buzz from television. But I agree movies are a bit different, in that a written synopsis of a movie can give you a decent indication of what it’s about, but one simply cannot know how music will sound from a written description, and even a sample clip is often not enough to make a buying decision. The latest numbers for album sales are frightening.
You simply cannot use music to make a point about movies. That’s apples to friggin orange trees!
it is all in the data. look closely at the data behind the long-tail, the sources used for the theory and the supporting data points. The long tail is a tall tail (or short tail, or has a small tail… you pick) – Claire is correct.
In terms of the Netflix algorithm… look into how it is “adjusted” based upon rental habits of the user and look at the % of A titles they carry relative to B titles (in gross units). The algo is a wonderful inventory control tool and helps people find product WHEN the A product they have requested first is not available.
The tail is something we all would like to believe as it supports the industry but has simply not proved out in the real life mass markets.