UPDATE: The Walt Disney Co was the last major studio and network to report quarterly earnings, and its fiscal 3rd quarter profit rose 40% on the strong box office grosses from Pixar’s Toy Story 3, Marvel’s Iron Man 2, and Tim Burton’s Alice In Wonderland 3D. As promised, here is an earnings roundup showing that Big Media is alive and well and even flourishing not just this quarter but in many cases for next quarter or even the entire year. Yet the trickle down effect has been slow or nonexistent for Hollywood. After rounds of layoffs during the economic crisis, the moguls are still slow to put people back to work. And the movie and TV community still is underemployed. But what everyone can count on is that Big Media’s good news for the benefit of Wall Street will turn into bad news to the detriment of talent, behind-the-camera, post-production, and below-the-line unions when it’s time to negotiate:
August 5th: Viacom Inc Reports Sharply Higher Earnings For Q2
Credit the rebounding economy and recovering advertising market. Net earnings rose to $420 million, or 69 cents a share, up 52% from $277 million, or 46 cents a share, a year ago. Executive Chairman Sumner Redstone gushed, ”With six months under our belt in this calendar year, day after day our confidence continues to grow as the emerging economy recovery builds. Now of course we’re not all the way back, but the light is brighter than it’s been for some time… Consumers are returning to the marketplace, marketers are beginning to spend again to grow revenues and capture share and Viacom is now and will continue to benefit.” Revenue at Viacom’s media networks group rose 6% to $2.1 billion.
Viacom CEO Philippe Dauman said ad revenue growth has been improving quarter by quarter. “Once we get into October and into the December quarter, we will benefit from this upfront where we have greater volume than last year at higher pricing. Dauman singled out Jersey Shore as a show where ”we have advertisers scrambling to get on it. We have advertisers who want to be wall to wall in particular episode. We’re turning them away.” Viacom’s movie business was down 10% to 41.25 billion, led by a 43% drop in home entertainment revenue. Also, Paramount Pictures has primarily been distributing others’ films like Iron Man 2 and Shrek Forever After in 2010 and self-financing its own pics. It is deliberately pursuing a strategy of a smaller slate of films in 2010-2011. Still, the film unit booked income of $69 million, reversing an $8 million loss in the same quarter a year ago. Viacom continued to post equity losses from its EPIX joint venture but said it should approach break-even by the end of the year.
August 4th: News Corp Posts Improved 4th Quarterly Results
News Corp posted a profit of $875 million, or 33 cents a share, for its fiscal 4Q ended June 30th easily beating analysts expectations. That compared with a loss of $203 million, or 8 cents a share, a year ago, when News Corp took an impairment charge. Revenue grew 6% to $8.11 billion, as companies spent more to advertise on the company’s television stations, TV channels and newspapers. That beat the average forecast of analysts of $8.05 billion. COO Chase Carey explained that brisk sales of advertising at Fox Broadcasting and the company’s cable television networks made the difference, while ad rates at the Fox network are up by a double-digit percentage from this spring. Ad rates are even better at the cable channels, which already represent more than 50% of the company’s profits. Local television station advertising revenues improved 29% in the quarter and 8% for the year compared to the same periods a year ago, reflecting strength in the automobile and telecom sectors.
Chairman and CEO Rupert Murdoch said he was “very pleased” with the overall 30% increase “which is more than three times the growth we were projecting when we started the fiscal year. Despite the volatility of world economies, News Corporation continues to thrive on a truly global scale.” Of course he credited Avatar’s effects on Fiscal 2010 results. “But that was just a part of a much broader improvement at News Corporation. These results underscore just how well positioned we are fiscally, operationally, and strategically for further growth across all of our markets. So, as we turn to Fiscal 2011 and beyond, I am confident in our businesses and in our people to deliver superior results.”
Filmed entertainment reported a decline but only because the comparison period a year earlier had big releases that included sequels like Night at the Museum 2 and the X-Men spin-off Wolverine. The unit did see an increase in home entertainment revenue, thanks to record DVD sales of Avatar,. which is the best-selling Blu-ray title of all time And if future declines are reported, CFO David DeVoe warned that’s because the company is unlikely to repeat the blockbuster success of Avatar anytime soon. But the performance of filmed entertainment over the past year was staggering – a record year and a record number of $1.349 billion in operating income and up more than half a billion increase from the previous year. News Corp also reported full year results, and segment operating income increased to a record $1.3 billion, from $848 million reported in fiscal 2009. This growth was driven by the blockbuster worldwide theatrical and home entertainment performances of Avatar and Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs. The company expects its fiscal 2011 operating income to rise in the low double-digit percentage range from the $4.64 billion posted in fiscal 2010, as cable profits grow.
August 4th: Time Warner’s Profit 7% Higher In 2nd Quarter
Time Warner’s posted 7% higher profit, 8% higher revenue, and raised its full year 2010 adjusted earnings per share outlook. to a whopping 20% over 2009. The results topped Wall Street expectations, and Time Warner signaled growing confidence by boosting its full-year profit forecast to a whopping 20% over 2009. In May, the company had forecast only growth on a percentage basis in the mid-teens. CEO Jeff Bewkes told media that ad strength is continuing into the 3rd quarter with scatter market pricing and upfront pricing both up considerably. TW’s cable networks, Turner Broadcasting and HBO, led the company’s growth on 14% higher ad revenue and 9% higher subscriptions. At the company’s cable channels, which include CNN, TBS, the Cartoon Network and others, ad revenue was up by $126M, or 14%, over the same quarter a year ago. Across the entire company, ad revenue was up 11%, “its highest rate in almost 6 years,” Bewkes told analysts on a conference call. Overall, Time Warner reported net income of $562M, or 49 cents per share, for the three months ended June 30. That’s up from $524M, or 43 cents, a year ago. Despite all this good news, Bewkes was wary to commit to adding jobs, telling CNBC, “One of the ways I think you make more money is by creating more efficiency.”
The slate of Warner Bros films including Clash of the Titans ($492M) and Sex And The City 2 ($280M) offset box office disappointments Jonah Hex and The Losers. Film entertainment revenue climbed 8% to $2.5 billion, with a 21% jump in operating profit to $173M. But Warner Bros saw a slight drop in adjusted operating income, to $173 million from $176 million because of higher costs for production and advertising in the quarter ended June 30th. Home video revenue was down 8%, Martin said, but revenue from digital distribution grew by a sizable 50% and now represents nearly 20% of the studio’s total home video pie. Bewkes was already bragging about Conan O’Brien’s effect on Time Warner’s bottom line, saying he sees strong demand and an ad rate per 1,000 viewers similar to what the TV host previously attracted on NBC. In all, ad revenue was up 14% at the Turner networks, the biggest increase in 6 years. In response to an analyst’s question, Bewkes said Warner Bros has seen a positive effect on DVD sales and video-on-demand from the deals it struck with Redbox and Netflix.
August 3rd: CBS Q2 Beats Wall Street On 9% Rise in Advertising
CBS Corp’s 2nd quarter profit soared on revenue gains across its portfolio of media assets, crediting much improved advertising markets led by the automobile, telecommunications, retail, financial services and entertainment sectors, and the U.S. economic recovery. CBS’s net income was nearly 10 times the level a year ago as cost-cutting helped profit and revenue rose 11%. CEO Les Moonves told analysts during a conference call that the media giant’s revenue gains are poised to continue in the 3rd quarter, followed by a boost from heavy spending on political advertising in the 4th quarter. He does not expect any slowdown at O&Os, where local advertising spending is climbing back toward normal levels as the recession fades. Overall, Q2 revenue rose 11%, or $3.33 billion and EPS of 25 cents, beating the consensus $3.24 billion and 21 cents.
Among the good news were jumps of 9% rise in advertising, a 19% increase in licensing and distribution revenue of such shows as the CSI franchise and NCIS and The Good Wife, and a 17% rise in affiliate fees. Nearly 2/3s of the company’s revenue still comes from advertising, and local ad spending, which makes up about a 1/5 of CBS’s revenue, rose 17% from a year ago. The company was able to sell more ads in advance of its fall TV season this year than 2009, selling out 80% of its inventory versus 65% last year, and at higher prices. Net income in the three months to June 30th hit $150.1M, or 22 cents per share, up from $15.4M, or 2 cents per share, a year ago. Cable network revenue, including from pay TV channel Showtime, grew 12% $369M. Moonves told analysts he wants the company to become know for selling its content. CBS expects to record $250M in retransmission fees for the full year in 2012. As for CBS Films division, which so far has released two films and is about to release its third on Thanksgiving weekend, Moonves said, “We’re keeping our discipline and staying below the $40 million range in terms of our investment.”
July 27th: DreamWorks Animation’s 2010 Biggest Box Office Year
DreamWorks Animation SKG, Inc. announced financial results for its second quarter ended June 30th that shows profits declined 6.2%. But that was without a new home entertainment DVD in the marketplace, so costs outpaced box office gains since the theatrical release of films is the most expensive time of their sales cycle. Total revenue was $158.1 million and net income of $24.0 million, or $0.27 per share on a fully diluted basis. “Our strong second quarter was driven primarily by the blockbuster performances of Shrek Forever After and How to Train Your Dragon, two of the top 10 films of 2010 on both a domestic and a worldwide basis,” said CEO Jeffrey Katzenberg. “We have once again surpassed $1 billion in worldwide box office and with Megamind still to be released on November 5th, we are on track to make 2010 not only DreamWorks Animation’s single biggest year at the box office, but also the biggest year ever for any CG animation studio.” That’s because both Shrek Forever After and How to Train Your Dragon will have big-selling DVDs in the marketplace before the holiday season. The Company also announced today that its Board of Directors has approved a new $150 million share repurchase program.
July 16th: Revenue & Profit Growth For GE’s NBCU Q2
Following quarter after quarter of awful performance, including a weak first quarter down 49% because of a too-costly Winter Olympics, NBC Universal turned in the best 2nd quarter revenue performance of all GE units — up 13%. This may be too late to matter much to GE but it’s good news for Comcast which could take possession of the TV/film company by the end of the year if it receives regulatory approval for the deal. (It recently won European Union approval but awaits the FCC’s.) NBCU’s profit hit $607 million, with revenue rising 5% to $3.75 billion. GE chairman/CEO Jeff Immelt singled out NBCU’s “good revenue and profit growth” — including the broadcast biz where revenue rose 1% and profit 6% helped by a better ad upfront market (+18% in dollars booked) and scatter ad market (+20%). Even NBCU’s O&O’s gained 25%. And once again cable was NBCU’s primary driver of growth, with revenue up 7% and profit up 10%. GE says Universal is improving with Get Him To The Greek at the box office, while the 3rd quarter is off to a good start with the release of Despicable Me. Meanwhile, the broadcast network is expecting better ratings for its strong new fall development compared to last year’s awful schedule.






Okay, if they’re going by Sony’s playbook, the layoffs should start any minute now.
I’m thinking all of this profit growth will suddenly and amazingly start to disappear, oh, right around the time the union contracts expire.
Jimmy Gets it…Nice job !!
it’s because of vertical intergration. This is the first time during a recession that the majority of the studios are owned by bigger comglomerates. Columbia has had a great year but they are already out of development money. Why? Because Sony, the company that owns them, has been getting killed in the TV market. You look at almost all the studios and they are making a killing. But that money is going to cover the losses of other divisions in these huge corps. So sad.
Hollywood is not working more because we are in the middle of a structural shift that has coincided with a downturn in the economic cycle. People are confusing structural change with cyclical dip.
Hollywood, as it once was, is finished. It faces competition from video games offering an immersive experience, the Internet, which offers an immediate, limitless experience, and television, which is now producing narrative that rivals or surpasses movies.
The studios no longer make serious movies, they have alienated the audience that grew up with Taxi Driver, Godfather et al. An entire market segment is completely disengaged with cinema – other than when they get dragged to the theaters by their kids. This is the generation that came alive to movies, and all that goodwill and heritage is being squandered by today’s executives. Ask anyone over 40 if they want to go to the movies and the response is the same – I’d love to but there’s nothing to see. Hollywood has simply given up on an entire swathe of the market.
Rather than fight off the video game experience, Hollywood is embracing it and trying to make movies more like video games. That is a battle it can never win.
Throw into the mix the fact that the studios have all cut back on their output, and it does not make for a pretty picture.
This is not cyclical. It is structural. Do not expect hirings to begin any time soon.
Well said. The baby boomers are the largest generational demo we will ever see in the country, unless we have another WWII. They have disposable income and like, no LOVE to go to the movies and they are being ignored.
The irony is that most of the films that would appeal them would not cost 150 million to produce. In further irony, most of theses films would play well overseas because many of the faces in them are RECOGNIZABLE to most of the world.
What happens when 3D runs it course? See ABC post “Millionaire” years and NBC post Leno at 10. No one ever learns.
You guys read the article in which it said profit was up for every studio, right? So they’re doing something right, and *probably* know their audiences pretty well and *probably* aren’t going under any time soon because they don’t make movies like Taxi Driver any more.
Can we please stop it with the “film and TV are dinosaurs that will die tommorrow because of the internet and video games” line?
They’re raking it in.
They’re not paying their employees, especially creatives, what they’re worth because they cultivate a culture of fear where no one wants to speak up and no one has any negotiating leverage because, well, what other job are they going to get?
Profits are up because they’ve hiked prices and cut costs, not because the market is growing. Movie attendance is dropping year on year and the DVD market is collapsing. Even an unhealthy market can deliver profits if you structure your business correctly, which is exactly what the studios have done.
I don’t think TV will die, because right now it is the place to go for the best narrative content, but film is in trouble because there is no emphasis on quality, it’s all about parting people from their money. And the younger demographic that the studios are targeting with 3D and comic book adaptations respond better to the immersive experience of a video game. Movie attendance tails off whenever a big video game is released. It has an impact that cost cutting and hiked prices can mask for only so long. And video games are a growth industry.
Agree with your final point. It’s an industry that attracts far more people than there are jobs for. That’s why there is no leverage. However, Hollywood is losing its lustre. Ask most talented graduates where they want to go and it’s not Hollywood, it’s hedge funds, video game companies and tech. The attraction of mediocre talent will further feed Hollywood’s demise.
And if you look at a lot of leading filmmakers, they are not making their films in Hollywood any more. Or certainly not relying on Hollywood as the only source of finance. There must be significant change in how Hollywood does business or it is going to render itself obsolete.
I’ve been hearing EXACTLY what you just said for over a decade now. And it never happens.
There is no threat to major studio feature films in theaters or being delivered digitally via one of the many formats available today. It’s a thriving business. It could be doing better, but so could any product.
Yes, the video game industry is huge…but it can obviously exist side by side with the movie and TV industry. There’s that many consumers out there with that much money.
Get over the doom and gloom prophecy and fall in for the big win, i.e. figure out a way to suck on the teat or if you don’t like it go into finance or law or something.
You’re confusing a number of issues.
The film and TV industry will continue to be very profitable for many years to come, but as another poster notes, the corporations will do less with more. The original article asked why the studios are not ploughing their profits back into job creation. That is where the doom and gloom lies. The lack of jobs is not cyclical, it’s structural – those jobs ain’t coming back.
The structural shift is not the end of the studios or the end of Hollywood, it is the end of rich lot deals, first dollar gross, and private jets for talent. By doing less with more, the studios have created a buyers market.
So the structural shift will be good for the studios in the short term, they will continue to extract great profits from a declining industry. It will be bad for talent, because the pool of available jobs and available projects is constantly shrinking, and it will be good for other forms of entertainment like video games because less product from Hollywood means less competition for the share of consumers’ discretionary spend.
Very thoughtful and well put.
It’s a structural shift, and well-said, by the way. Studios/Production Companies are doing more with much less. Many office suites are ghost towns, now.
I would also add “uncertainty.” Like every other industry in this country, nobody knows what taxes will be like, nobody knows what their health insurance liabilities will be… When people don’t know, they tend to sit tight.
The good news is, the means of production have never been cheaper. There’s a convergence of internet and television in the near future and there is/will be an amazing opportunity for creatives willing to work for themselves.
i agree with the first half of your post, but i so disagree with the second half.
people have been predicting the convergence of television and the internet since about 1994. i guess because both have what appear to be screens. but look closer my friend, one is a screen and the other is monitor. and the resolution is different (not that people care about quality anymore, if they ever did).
and once you wheel the computer into the family room to watch a movie, it feels like you’re still stuck in the office. it’s a psychological thing that maybe folks in flyover country aren’t interested in.
also a company like sony doesn’t want this because they’d like to sell you 2 different products instead of 1.
No, no, no, there are no profits at the Hollywood studios. You can check our books.
The reason why is because Disney and other studios are doing productions in areas where the government will hand them free money.
Canada is offering pay 35% of production costs of work done there. This is the equivalent of placing a tariff on work done in California.
This is a violation of international trade law and the US Trade Representative Ron Kirk should file a petition with the WTO.
How can this happen when the MPAA and the studios have lobbied heavily against that happening?
studios always make more money when they reduce production. it is a direct result of the way motion picture accounting works.
more revenue from less films; did that answer your question?
Hollywood crews aren’t working more, because it’s Disney’s policy to go to the States that provides the biggest subsidies.
Profits are up, because the Motion Pictures business is the most heavily subsidized business in the United States.
The tax revenues generated by this now multi State dispersed industry don’t come close to the tax dollars given away to the conglomerates.
If all incentive were to end tomorrow, Hollywood would be buzzing.
On the bright side, out of Hollywood productions usually fail.
Those earnings are up *because* they’re not putting people back to work. Or at the very least, that’s what the accountants will be preaching.
If they can make that profit with the people they have why would they want to hire more? Just because they are making more?
Appears the content creators are still skiddish. After Comcast’s acquisition of NBC, are others nervous about being taken over and therefore conservative about risk taking?
because Hollywood, like any other industry is realizing they didn’t need all the personnel they were carrying….companies are trimming down and realizing they can handle the workload with the people they’ve got
Speaking of restructuring and subsidies, New York just reloaded its rebate program. Two weeks ago, a development group broke ground on an $80M studio (run by Raleigh) outside Detroit based on Michigan’s incentive (40 to 42%) that has no annual cap and that goes, well, forever. The states are broke. What taxpayers did they find with that kind of money still in their pockets? I mean, wha…?
There are tons of crews working all over north america. The problem is they’re not working in CA.. Most of the crew people I work with in Mich/LA. used to be in L.A. and moved to where the work is. Movie production is like every other industry. It’s no longer confined to hollywood any more than the auto business is confined to detroit.
That’s not gonna change.
I’m not an expert by any means but it is my understanding almost no states “pay” anything out until the tax year after the spending is taking place. So, I view it as not 40 to 42 cents on the dollar spent by these states but 58 – 60 cents made by the state. Not to mention jobs, the spending that comes around a film (local hotels, restaurants) and the intangible and hard to pinpoint ancillary value of potential tourism or community pride that so and so is going to the same places they are.
I think states are silly to cap. If they get rid of tax incentives, the filming will go elsewhere which means 0 dollars to the state.
I’m up for discussion, I just am confused when people are saying this is costing taxpayers money. I could be wrong.
Whiskey proved wrong…ONCE AGAIN.
MARK!! That moron otherwise known as “Whiskey” hasn’t been posting much in a while. PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE don’t give the idiot any attention that might prompt him to post again. I stopped reading comments here because of that information vacuum and his cohort “Furious D”.
Actually, I’m proved right. A few big hits, driving profitability. Employment is down because profits are driven by the few big hits, not middle-tier movies.
Related to this is the collapse of film library value. Miramax got sold by Disney for $660 million, that’s about 900K+ per film (700 films in the library).
For employment to be maximized, mid-tier films also have to have value after theatrical/DVD release — like foreign sales, TV rights, the like. That seems to have collapsed under foreign competition and a glut of stuff domestically for TV nets (and vertical integration i.e. Warner companies running endless re-runs of Law and Order).
Studios are almost entirely dependent on a few hit movies, making a mis-step potentially catastrophic for as noted, studios like Sony experiencing problems in parent corp core earnings/revenue.
Its not just EARNINGS either, investors like to see revenue growth not just cost-cutting because the former offers a more compelling profit story than just cutting costs.
Let me add that I LOVE movies. Taxi Driver, the Limey, the Conversation, Night Moves, World’s Fastest Indian, American Graffiti, the French Connection, are masterful movies that are great works of art that I watch at least every other month. I’d love to see a movie a week, more if they were all even close to that.
I just don’t see the “broadness” of movies making money, the way Hollywood used to run in the Golden Era, with all types of movies making money. Which is sad. Hollywood is FILLED with creative, talented people who can (and sometimes do) make great movies. I’d much rather see a lot of movies make moderate amounts of money than a few big “concept” hits (comic books, toys, etc.)
Studios aren’t philanthropic enterprises, their obligation it to make money for their owners. You want the studios to give you money, buy their stock.
Given how notoriously nutso-cukcoo studio accounting practises tend to be I’m not sure how to view any of this news. Asa movie-goer it’s certainly a dissipriting time. Few of the ten movies playing in my city at any given time seem to be aimed at adults. So I agree with Fan and Yup Yup about the over 40′s being ignored.
Worse still we keep getting huge budget films based on pop culture ephemera like Speed Racer and Land of teh Lost few in North America really care about and which no-one overseas has heard of. It seems studios would rather blow 100 million on any pre-existing concept rather than spend 20 to 40 million on something original.
I’m hoping at least that Hollywood’s inability to make mid-budget genre films will be seized upon by film-makers outside LA. Perhaps District 9 is the wave of things to come. Ditto Luc Besson’s action movie factory. Certainly I’d rather see more quasi-indie international projects like this
http://www.bloody-disgusting.com/news/21232
over bloated developed to death schlock than Jonah Hex.
This is another example why the stock market is bound to fail again. It’s focused on growth, growth, growth quarter over quarter, year over year and fails to look at the fundamentals of the business.
While I love ESPN, eventually the MSOs (Time Warner Cable, Comcast, etC) are going to get sick of their exorbitant programming fees and rate hikes and put it on the pay tier. While, I love it, the majority of americans are sports lovers like me and could do without their monthly bill going up not because of the MSOs greed but the networks.
Cutting costs is great, especially if they could try to get rid of redundancies (usually at the top and middle and middle middle management but the paradigm of the business still needs to shift if these stocks are truly going to ever up their value.
Thanks again for these industry business articles.
They are all playing accounting tricks to show as much profit this year to avoid the tax increases that are coming down the pike. If it were not for this reason it would be a normal year with them using the same accounting tricks to hide and push around as much profit as possible.
The whole point of the game, in significant part, has been to crush labor.
Jobless recovery is the new normal, see?
And it’s great at the top: Joe taxpayer/sucker ate the downside at the barrel of a gun while the big boys kept and will continue to keep the upside scott free. Now they consolidate power accordingly, able to buy up real assets for pennies on the dollar while the mass unemployment they created serves to evaporate even further what little leverage labor had since the New Deal was systematically–by both parties–rolled back to the Old Deal.
Good times!
California is losing business to other states/countries because it is stupid. California has perhaps more positive things going for it than any other state (film industry, high tech, agriculture, etc.) but because it is stupidly run it is on the precipice of disaster.
It’s politically incorrect but a major reason for California’s decline is the illegal immigrant invastion which has overloaded California’s hospitals, prisons, etc. and bankrupted the state.
The average Hollywood idiot living in their cocoon would rather ignore reality, raise taxes (except on themselves of course), accomodate illegal aliens and let businesses flee and flush the state further down the toilet.
Food for thought:
2009 total compensation:
CBS-Les Moonves = $43 million
TW-Jeff Bewkes = $19.5 million
Disney-Robert Iger = $29 million
etc.
Think about those numbers the next time you need to sign a contract with concessions.
It’s the Hypocrisy. The Studios took advantage of the economic slowdown for massive layoffs across the board. Let’s see if they start hiring back now. Doubtful … why? The mentality of the Studios is to cut costs. Period. They have nothing to do with the benefit of human welfare. I’m busting my ass covering 2 jobs for a Studio right now. Why? Because they can. When I explained I was not pleased with this arrangement, I was told very directly that I was welcome to look for another job if I didn’t like it. But with employees covering 2 jobs at other studios as well, then my job isn’t available there and I’m stuck here if I still want to get the paycheck. Around and around we go.
Also, all the arguments about the studio making a profit and relating it back to film seems to forget that a studio does a lot more than just produce films. They are making revenues from rentals, special events, distribution fees, investments etc. so I don’t think it’s relevant to say where is the profit participation in this case. PLus I think there isn’t some function of an improving economy in these numbers.
I’m not saying there isn’t a problem in that area, I’m just saying I don’t think there is a 100% direct correlation here that gets you to the conclusion that studios must be fraudulent.
If older folks actually showed up to see movies on opening weekends, there would be more movies for them.
Look at Nancy Meyers movies. She knows her audience of 40+ and they show up.
Hey, maybe the entertainment business is recession-proof, after all. Maybe…