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Was NBC onto something after all with its Jay Leno primetime experiment? Because for the current fourth week of the season, NBC’s new Monday-Thursday 10 PM lineup is poised for the first time to fall below the rating levels of the ill-fated Jay Leno Show for the same week a year ago.
Based on Live+same day ratings for Monday-Thursday, which include live viewing and same-night DVR viewing, as well as fast nationals for Friday, NBC is averaging a 1.595 rating among adults 18-49 at 10 PM this week. A year ago, The Jay Leno Show averaged a 1.642 for the same week in Live+same day. And that is despite the fact that, after NBC’s new 10 PM shows tied Leno last week, NBC boosted significantly its Friday performance in the hour by replacing poorly-rated new legal drama Outlaw with Dateline, going up from a 0.9 to 1.3 in the 18-49 demo this Friday.
For its entire three-week run on Fridays, Outlaw rated well below The Jay Leno Show. The Apprentice, stuck at a 1.3 at 10 PM on Thursdays for the past 3 weeks, also has been running lower than Leno by a wide margin. This week, the Jerry Bruckheimer-produced new NBC drama Chase on Monday joined them, dipping below Leno levels with a 1.5. On Tuesday, 10 PM drama Parenthood logged a 2.0 this week, up .2 from Leno’s delivery in the hour last year, but the two were tied last week. On Wednesday, Law & Order: Los Angeles (1.9) was only .1 higher than Leno, and, with 2 consecutive week-to-week drops of more than 20%, the Law & Order spinoff is on track to slip below Leno next week.
Of course, the picture will change when using Live+7 ratings, which reflect viewers’ DVR use for up to a week after a show’s original airing. Last year, only 2 of the 5 Jay Leno shows during premiere week got a small DVR bump, 6%. This year, all 5 NBC 10 PM shows airing in Jay Leno Show‘s slot got a 20%+ boost, led by Parenthood with 36%. But those shows’ C3 ratings – an indication how many viewers watch the commercials during a show, something advertisers use as base to set ad rates – are relatively low. In fact, there is no 10 PM show on any network in the Top 10 of the recently released C3 rankings for this year’s premiere week. There are only 2 in the top 20 – CBS’ Hawaii Five-0 (No. 13) and The Mentalist (No.20). This is another reason for concern for the broadcast networks who are facing big ratings erosion at 10 PM. For the first 3 weeks of the season, CBS, the strongest network by far this fall, is down 13% year-to-year at 10 PM to a 2.8. (It is still well ahead of the competition, winning the 10 PM hour on 16 of 19 nights in 18-49, and 18 of 19 in total viewers). ABC, which has been in a free-fall with a string of misfires this season, is down 22% to a 2.1, only .2 ahead of third-place NBC. Given its very low benchmark with Leno last fall, NBC is slightly up, 6%, but that margin is quickly shrinking as the network’s performance slides down each week.
Why such big declines? Some point to CBS’ and ABC’s scripted series facing scripted competition from NBC in the hour vs. The Jay Leno Show last year (though NBC has The Apprentice on Thursdays and just subbed cancelled new drama Outlaw with Dateline on Fridays). Then we have the much talked about heavy DVR use in the 10 PM hour when people are said to be catching up on programs they recorded at 8 PM and 9 PM. Indeed, the PUT (people using television) levels at 10 PM have slipped 3% in the 18-49 demo from last year. (And no, younger viewers are not simply migrating to basic cable, their PUT levels are slightly down too). But can such a small PUT drop account for the double-digit declines for ABC and CBS in the hour? And while DVR penetration in the pool of homes Nielsen uses to calculate its ratings is at 38% this fall, up from 33% a year ago, the percentage lifts shows get from week-long DVR viewing this season appear similar to last fall’s. One of the most DVR-ed 10 PM series, CBS’ Mentalist, added 29% to its Live+same day demo rating for premiere week this year in Live+7. Last year, the boost was 29%. The increase for CBS’ other hot DVR performer, new Monday 10 PM drama Hawaii Five-0 (28%) was was identical to how much last year’s CBS Friday 10 PM drama Numbers (28%) went up, with the boost of this year’s CBS 10 PM freshman The Defenders in line with the percentage increases for 10 PM dramas CSI: Miami and CSI: NY last year.
I’m not sure there is an easy explanation for the case of disappearing viewers at 10 PM. And I think there may have been something in NBC’s idea of launching a DVR-proof, less-expensive show in the hour. But as they say in Hollywood, it all comes down to execution. And that’s one area where NBC brass definitely got it wrong with Leno.
TV Editor Nellie Andreeva - tip her here.
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They were out of the 10pm business the entire time Leno had the spot, is it a shocker they don’t have great product now??
Could it be that Leno is not the big bad guy after all? Or that Conan is not the wunderkind everyone thinks he is? We’ll see after Conan’s show appears.
Most viewers don’t have a network preference, especially the 18-49 crowd. They couldn’t care less about the network a good show is on … they will watch a good show anywhere. The reason the 18-49 demo is valued so much is that they will try new things and are therefore better targets for advertising. Old Spice sales spiked after a successful ad campaign, and it wasn’t the over-50 set buying the stuff our 80 year old fathers splash on every day.
In the end, its content that matters.
It’s been a long time since it last happened, but maybe NBC should try two half-hour comedies between 10-11 PM. I think people would enjoy a good laugh before going to bed (and before anyone says it, I do not like Jay Leno nor do I think he is a good comedian). Even try moving a drama to 8-9 PM and have 9-11 be comedies.
Try anything radical, at this point.
This is a great idea. Everyone I know, including myself, turn to TV Land or some other cable network running a classic sitcom at 10 P.M. At least it gives the viewer a totally different option than either a middle-of-the-road procedural, medical, or legal drama . And what do you have to lose NBC? You certainly couldn’t go any lower. You need to make a bold move that doesn’t just copy everyone else. The only problem is that I know what you’ve got waiting in the wings as far as comedy goes. Yikes!
You must not care about good dialogue or unique characters, b/c Chase has neither.
Funny, just a few years ago, a network would cancel a show with a 4.0 or 3.0 rating….
…hmmmm.
I disagree with the posters who feel that NBC has alienated their viewers with last year’s Leno ‘experiment’ or anything else..people watch PROGRAMS. Most people (not in the business) but just regular folks might not even know what network carries their favorite shows–they know the channel…I believe ‘if you build it they will come..’that is why one hit show can begin to turn things around for any network be it cable or broadcast. It’s true that broadcast has a much higher bar since ratings that are defined as a hit on basic cable are generally lower.
I agree with the posters who suggest that 10pm be used for more adventurous programming. The Good Wife is a good example of a smart, well-written, provocative show that doesn’t talk ‘down’ to its viewers, but the envelope could be pushed even further, I think, taking a page from FX for example.
The other problem is that often it takes time for a writing staff to find its groove with a series and the broadcast habit of ‘two episodes and out’ is ridiculous. I get the economics of it, but cable gives their shows time, even if they’re not big hits out of the box. Given that shows that are picked up to series are ostensibly the ‘best of the best’ from everything pitched/sold/written/shot, right? wrong!:)
I quit watching NBC because of Zucker/Leno-gate. That’s why.
Conan supporters vowed to stop watching NBC. Nice to see we’ve hit the network where it counts – in the wallet.
No more reality shows! They are so mindless and are full of mentally deranged, narcicisst who crave attention. I refuse to pay them any! Someone also suggested that NBC add Mad Men, Breaking Bad, Dexter and Rescue Me to it’s roster. Yuk! If they did that, I’d just shut the T.V. off and go to bed early. Those are terrible shows. I thought the only people that liked that kind of stuff, were critics.
Crummy shows = crummy ratings.
And clearly, NBC made a BIG mistake cancelling the original Law & Order instead of giving it a final season. Come on, NBC, make the call and round up the cast.
You are soooo right! How could they dump Law & Order? I loved that show. It was one of 3 shows that I watched consistently on tv. Then, all of a sudden – *poof* – gone. Zucker strikes again. If his intention was to bring nbc to it’s knees then his mission is accomplished.
Nellie…cut the crap and all the desperate statistics. simply put the shows at 10:00 are bad…simply bad! Stop making something out of nothing. They are simply bad! do you now get it???They keep buying “People” instead of simply solid good concepts on which to build a series..My point? David Kelly doing “Wonder Woman”??(That’s a winner!) the NBC “Munsters”…and lets add ABC and the “Incredible Hulk”…Sounds like a kids saturday morning line up…nothing more.So cut your crap and trying to instigate something that’s not there…they are just bad shows.
I blame two men and a woman for this deluge of programming and the falling ratings that is being encountered by this network…Jeff Zucker, Ben Silverman and Angela Bromstad. Everyone that Zucker hired at the network the last two or three years time have taken this network into the toilet, starting with the awful Jay Leno Show and and then keeping nonsense on the air like Parenthood and Apprentice. Outlaw was a train wreck from the moment it was announced. I still say they never should have canceled Las Vegas on Friday nights. Sure, it might have been slowly declining in the ratings but one thing was for certain…they had a loyal audience for the show and the passion is still there. I know it’s a longshot to bring the show back, but if FOX could do it with Family Guy after a three year hiatus, why not Vegas? I know the props may not be available but even better to shoot the show in Vegas itself and reinforce the vigor that made the show popular once again. Yes, it’s a pipedream, but hoping it can still come to fruition to at least save Friday nights. As for the Apprentice, it’s time to end this drivel once and for all and keep Donlad Trump and his siblings off my TV set forever. Thank goodness Jeff Zucker has been fired and he won’t poison this network anymore!!
Very misleading article. Fingerpointing and playing the Leno blame game is OVER. It is old now. Time to move on people.
This is a new season so focus should be on what is going on now and not get into biased comparisons.
Linda, the new season may be started, but the purpose of this article was to point out that NBC’s 10 PM hour is so bad that it is below what Jay Leno did at this time last year. And it should be noted that Jay’s numbers fell as the season went on.
Nellie — consider that Friends, in its tenth and final season, did about 23 million per episode in 2003-2004, just seven years ago. Now, on Thursdays, the highest rated show is the Mentalist, doing about 15 million (adjusted). That’s 34% less than a show fully ten years old.
Indeed, the highest rated show on Thursdays this season is the Mentalist, out-performing Big Bang by about 3 million viewers, at 10 pm.
So much for “people are not watching at 10 pm.”
NUMB3RS at 10 pm routinely pulled in between 10-12 million viewers at 10 pm, for most of its run.
I did an admittedly back of the envelope calc for premiere Thursday in Sept, using publicly accessible Nielsen data. Total cable viewership amounted only to 10% of the total viewership. Bear in mind, most cable channels have about 60,000 viewers even in prime time, and that’s so low that collectively, they are not much of a threat and not responsible for viewership erosion, which has taken place not just at 10 pm but also at 8-9 pm. Friends and NUMB3RS had to compete with DVR’ing, and cable TV, and pulled in quite respectable numbers despite being nothing special (ten years old, a CBS procedural, respectively).
The problem is lack of quality TV. I’d certainly admit that fantastically written shows like the Unusuals, or Life, or even the Eleventh Hour, could not find audiences. But its not that networks don’t put out the occasional high quality show, it is that the collective nature of almost all their scripted shows is substandard. In other words people want good, decent quality meatloaf and mashed potatoes. TV comfort food done well. That’s what broadcast TV is supposed to deliver but mostly doesn’t.
Cable is the model, but not Breaking Bad or Mad Men. That show is lucky to pull in 2 million viewers, the amount of ink and pixels it gets is out of proportion to the viewers (tiny). Burn Notice out-performs many NBC and Fox shows. THAT formula, broad action, characterization, a broad arc easy to understand any time, episodic rather than intensely serial, is a winner. You could say the same about Psych, or Royal Pains, both of which could probably move un-edited to NBC.
NBCU does so much right with USA, it’s pathetic how bad they are with NBC. I don’t think they cared much: Ben Silverman and Jeff Zucker were not serious hires by a management serious about delivering results.
they should do whatever they have to do to bring back SOUTHLAND
Jed, I was one of those loyal viewers of “Vegas”, but NBC ruined the show. James Caan was perfect as a former CIA agent who turned casino boss. What did NBC do though, they let him walk and instead, hired Tom Selleck, who stuck out like a sore thumb. His character just didn’t fit in. When the series started, it was a dramatic show with some action mixed in and a few bites of comedy here and there. When Selleck came in, the show took on a whole new feel. It mainly consisted of bad comedy, some drama and very little action. That is when I called it quits and tuned out for good. The same goes for “C.S.I.”. When William Peterson left, the show fell apart.
The fish stinks from the head. And not just Zucker. Bromstad needs to go, as well as Ed Chung.
Add Jeff Ingold to that list. That guy has horrible taste.
It’s probably more that people are doing other things. Internet usage according to web concerned sites I frequent is up in the 10pm-11pm hours. News in some markets now comes on at 10 and local often trumps national. And many folks are working longer hours and are up earlier as back in the mainly agricultural days of the USA. Morning commutes now begin earlier as reflected again by local stations starting news at 4:30 and 5 a.m., so those folks are in bed by 10 or should be if they want to stay healthy.
But here is the thing. The rotten economy is to blame for the fall in the network numbers too. For the person lucky enough to have a job, they have to get up and get to work to the point that they arrive 30 minutes early and that is just to avoid getting cut. Then after getting off your daytime job, you have a nighttime job while your wife, if you are married, has a job or two of her own. In the end, you are lucky if you escape being overdrawn on your account by one penny. That doesn’t mean that you are missing network television at night. Nelisen only counts houses, apartments, and condos. That is the flaw in the ratings system. That doesn’t mean you are a jackass because you are correct in that there are people that use the 10 PM hour to check on their favorite sites or watch the local news as I pointed out. I am just adding the fact that the economy is bad enough that Nelisen is missing people who may be watching in their place of work.
NBC makes its own weather. Bad choices, godawful executives. Hard to figure how on one floor, NBC can screw everything up entirely while in the same building Universal Cable Group and USA are flying high. The difference is clearly in vision and execution. Zucker, Silverman, Bromstad=hopeless. They took a pretty excellent brand and watered it down so badly and arrogantly that it no longer even really appealed to talent (who used to rush there to make their programs before the era of Zucker). Watch Bonnie Hammer and Wachtel move up that ladder and fast. CBS, on the other hand, did what every successful network does – built on its audience and its brand. Big audiences, ho hum demos, but who cares when the country’s getting so old and the new generation isn’t predictable? USA did the same thing – Silk Stalkings basically became the shows they have now. Predictable, glossy, blue skies, tame – but successful.
Program for the masses…not the youngsters. CBS has is right and they’ll continue to beat the other networks.
I have been getting thru the 10pm by taking a nap till 1130 entourage ch 5. Set the alarm.
The reason these new shows suck, is because they no longer have access to SAG-only actors. Ha-Ha executive dimwits. You thought you didn’t need people who dedicated their professional lives to playing the supporting roles … but guess what? You can’t!!!! The curse of nick counter curses on.
Here is the reason. I generally watch live from 8-10. Then I watch the shows I DVR’d earlier at 10 and the rest the next day at my leisure.
It is really very simple. Put craptacular programming on at 10 PM (9 central) and lose your audience.
Wake up NBC – it’s not like you have to compete with two networks anymore. There is a wealth of competing programming on cable, satellite, and online, not to mention DVR.
There is no “must see TV” at 10 PM on NBC anymore.
I can tell you what’s wrong with NBC. When shows like “Outsourced” come on, I change the channel. Is a show about a bunch or Indian people supposed to be cute? Why would anybody want to watch that? To me the show is alien and repugnant.
I think the main problem isn’t necessarily the content, but rather the fact that the timeslots for these shows keep getting moved once they premiere. The average viewer doesn’t pay attention long enough to notice the time shifts, and it negatively affects the ratings of these shows.