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SUNDAY AM: First weekend I’ve slept past 8 AM in what feels like forever. But this is Hollywood’s lone box office break for big movies before the end of the year, and the 2nd slowest grossing weekend of the year (since the Fri-Sat-Sun post-Thanksgiving is usually a turkey). But a lot of specialty films had their debuts or expansions including Fox Searchlight’s drama Black Swan from Darren Aronofsky starring Natalie Portman (18 theaters in 8 cities — NY, LA, Boston, Chicago, San Francisco, Washington DC, Dallas, Toronto). It had Friday’s best per screen average with $23,660, and the studio knew it was overperforming when Friday’s matinees were double the per screen average of Aronfsky’s previous The Wrestler. Black Swan grossed $1.3M with a gross per theater average of $77,459, setting an all-time record for Fox Searchlight. (More than Juno, Slumdog Millionaire, Sideways, and Little Miss Sunshine all of which were in fewer theatres.) The drama also is the 2nd highest opening of a limited release for 2010, passing The Kids Are All Right and now only behind The King’s Speech.
Also for Fox Searchlight, there is Danny Boyle’s 127 Hours with James Franco (433 theaters for a gross per screen average of $3,695), The King’s Speech from The Weinstein Co (6 theaters) with another terrific gross per screen average of $54,312. Roadside Attraction release I Love You, Phillip Morris starring Jim Carrey scored $18,886 gross a screen in 6 theaters for its opening. “Considering the behemoth that is Black Swan, who took away a nice chunk of our hipster, gay and specialty audience, we think we came through with shining colors,” a Roadside exec tells me. Roadside and its partner on the release, Liddell Entertainment, are spending a fraction of what, say Fox Searchlight or The Weinstein Co is spending. Magnolia’s drama thriller All Good Things (2 theaters), directed by Andrew Jarecki, debuted with a gross per screen average at NYC’s Paris and Angelica of $20K. But the movie has already made millions on VOD and is on its way to becoming Magnolia’s most successful on that platform. “There is a giant section of America that doesn’t have access to these types of films,” said a Magnolia rep. “The VOD/Theatrical model is alive and very well and these numbers proves that clearly. Many wonder how VOD will affect theatrical – this opening shows that it can lead to success for both. The VOD acts as a sneak and word of mouth tool and theatrical numbers reflect that.”
The good news is that the marketplace expanded for all of these films because the adult audience still feels underserved. Also in theaters are Summit Entertainment’s Fair Game (436 theaters), and Waiting for ‘Superman’ from Paramount Vantage [85 theaters]. Most are platforming for awards season, but none are cracked the Top 10 this weekend. Fair Game added screens but still came in behind Black Swan which looks to gross a phenomenal $300K for Friday, so figure about $1 million for the weekend. On the other hand, the expansion of 127 Hours still can’t get it to hang with the big boys.
As for the major studios, only Rogue/Relativity’s martial arts western The Warrior’s Way stealth-opened semi-wide in 1,622 theaters. I never saw a single trailer or TV ad for it anywhere. No matter: it’s a bomb with the production budget at $42 million and independently financed thanks to international superstar Dong-gun Jang. It was distributed in the U.S. as a rent-a-system deal by Relativity. With a CinemaScore of “C-”, the studio claimed today, “The opening results, while modest, didn’t fall far below expectations as the campaign and spend were very targeted.” According to exit polls, 35%/65% were under/over age 25, with 65% of moviegoers male. But it was a very diverse audience with 27% Asian, 23% African-American, 20% Caucasian and 20% Latino. Among holdovers, this weekend should have seen even steeper drops since a week ago was the day after Thanksgiving and the biggest moviegoing day of the year. But 3 of the 4 opening pics badly underperformed. Disney’s Tangled finally surged past Warner Bros’ Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows which continues to dominate the overseas marketplace, grossing an estimated $54.4M in 62 territories for an international cume to date of now $469.1M and a global cume of $713.3M. Disney’s 50th animated toon took in $26M this weekend from 15 territories representing 35% of the international market. With Tangled now hitting a domestic cume of $96.5M and overseas total of $45.8M, the new global cume is $142.3M:
1. Tangled (Disney) Week 2 [3,603 Theaters]
Friday $5.1M, Saturday $9.9M, Weekend $21.5M (-56%), Cume $96.5M
2. Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows (Warner Bros) Week 3 [4,125 Theaters]
Friday $4.8M, Saturday $7.4M, Weekend $16.7M, Cume $244.2M
3. Unstoppable (Fox) Week 4 [3,152 Theaters]
Friday $1.9M, Saturday $2.7M, Weekend $6.1M, Cume $68.8M
4. Burlesque (Screen Gems/Sony) Week 2 [3,037 Theaters]
Friday $2M, Saturday $2.5M, Weekend $6.1M (-50%), Cume $26.9M
5. Love And Other Drugs (Fox) Week 2 [2,458 Theaters]
Friday $1.9M, Saturday $2.3M, Weekend $5.7M (-41%), Cume $22.6M
6. Megamind (DreamWorks Animation/Paramount) Week 5 [3,173 Theaters]
Friday $1.1M, Saturday $2.3M, Weekend $5M, Cume $136.7M
7. Due Date (Warner Bros) Week 5 [2,450 Theaters]
Friday $1.3M, Saturday $1.8M, Weekend $4.2M, Cume $91M
8. Faster (CBS Films/Sony) Week 2 [2,470 Theaters]
Friday $1.2M, Saturday $1.6M, Weekend $3.8M (-55%), Cume $18.1M
9. The Warrior’s Way (Rogue/Relativity) NEW [1,622 Theaters]
Friday $1.1M, Saturday $1.1M, Weekend $3M
10. The Next Three Days (Lionsgate) Week 3 [2,236 Theaters]
Friday $815K, Saturday $M, Weekend $2.6M, Cume $18.4M
—
Specialty Films
127 Hours (Fox Searchlight) Week 5 [433 Theaters]
Weekend $1.6M, Cume $6.5M
Black Swan (Fox Searchlight) NEW [18 Theaters]
Weekend $1.3M
Fair Game (Summit) Week 5 [436 Theaters]
Weekend $1M, Cume $7.3M
The King’s Speech (Weinstein Co) Week 2 [6 Theaters]
Weekend $325K, Cume $808K
I Love You, Phillip Morris (Roadside Attractions) NEW [6 Theaters]
Weekend $113K
Waiting For ‘Superman’ (Paramount Vantage) Week [85 Theaters]
Weekend $36K, Cume $6.3M
All Good Things (Magnolia) NEW [2 Theaters]
Weekend $40K
Editor-in-Chief Nikki Finke - tip her here.
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Unless Tangled does REALLY well on Saturday and somehow manages a 20M second weekend, it will be very, very dissapointing after the stunning reviews, perfect Cinemascore (the first one in 2010) and fantastic OW. I know, I know post-Thanksgiving weekend and all, but if Enchanted could have managed a 50% drop, Tangled should have done something similar, as well. 200M-hopes seem to be gone at the moment unless it really steps it up during the Holiday Season.
And Love and other drugs REALLY surprised in a good way, last weekend’s 6th place could end up as this weekend’s 3rd place, that’s impressive. It will have the best drop of the top10 and with the Holiday Season coming up, 40-50M could happen which would be great considering the budget and the underwhelming OW.
Yay, Tangled DID manage a 20M+ second weekend, no problem at all, then. 200M is still a strong possibility.
Must not get to the movies much. I saw a “Warrior’s Way” trailer no less than five times at the theater for the past two months.
Nikki was talking about television ads, dunce.
I’ve seen numerous ads for it on cable TV (wish I’d kept a log of which channels; not mainstream media.)
As for the quality of the promotional campaign itself, my verdict: Uninspiring.
The announcement that Anne Hathaway is hosting the Oscars has really helped LAOD stay in the top 4. Jake Gyllenhaal’s 2 week PR showmance with Taylor Swift leading up to the opening didn’t work, so Anne to the rescue! I think she should get a Gloden Globe nom. for the movie.
you cant find one person in america who A) heard anne hathaway was hosting and then B) went to see LAOD based on that news. no way.
I can’t find one, I can find two: Me and my girlfriend
I’m annoyed that Black Swan won’t be within convenient distance to me for about a month. I want to see it now! This is the most annoying time of the year if you’re a serious film fan who lives in a Bumblefuck area, because it takes forever for these prestige titles to expand beyond the epicenters of the cultural elite. I’d cave in and be like the rest of my dumb generation and download BS illegally if the theatrical setting wasn’t so crucial to me.
so you’re too dumb to learn how to download, huh?
You’re a real cranky bitch, aren’t you steve? Just trolling about, leaving bitchy retorts to people’s comments like some bitchy schoolyard bitch. Oh, and steve, downloading is killing the business, so why don’t you stop being such a bitch by doing it/promoting it.
As a big “movies should only be seen in 35″ person myself, I have to say that Black Swan won’t really suffer on the small screen. You would think it’s the sort of movie you would need to see in a theater, but the grainy digital video gets really washed out on a big screen (I saw it on a huge screen at the Arclight) and it was kind of distracting.
It was shot on 16, which caused the grain, not digital projection.
Jon: Just Netflix Perfect Blue. It’s the same movie.
Actually it’s not, but thanks anyway.
Funny, Darren had the remake rights, so I’m surprised one could think they’re different.
“This is the most annoying time of the year if you’re a serious film fan who lives in a Bumblefuck area, because it takes forever for these prestige titles to expand beyond the epicenters of the cultural elite.”
Yes, blame “the elite”. Has it ever occurred to you that the problem is the backwards mentality of the red state backwater you live in, that believes that NPR, Harry Potter, and the Simpsons are all part of a Zionist plot to subvert American youth?
That is not what the commenter meant AT ALL. The implication was the poster feels bad for living in the area he lives and wants to be in an area to see the film, like the cultural elite.
What is it with the people on this board being so mean spirited today?
Jon: one more reason to move out of a bumblefuck area and into a major metropolitan area where you too can be part of the cultural elite.
Steve: if you actually took the time to read Jon’s post, you’d see that he considered downloading the movie, but that he chose not to because he wants to see the film in a theatre.
As someone who may or may not be part of the cultural elite, but who lives in LA where I had access to Black Swan, I saw it last night. Portman’s performance alone is well-done, but even bigger than that I think, is knowing what she went through to give that performance. Two years of studying ballet and training for the role and it shows in her dance, her appearance. Some amazing acting moments.
Wow. I wish Timberlake would take notice and take a year or two off to get some acting lessons to up his game. Is he blind to reviews?
I saw a 4 p.m. Friday-afternoon screening of this in Chicago yesterday. The theater was nearly full, and I noticed that all four quadrants were in attendance, even alone.
I saw a bunch of TV spots for Warrior’s Way. I think they were on the SyFy Channel. Obviously the studio is going to put ads where they think their audience will be watching.
Well, looks like they were right. LOLZ.
I Am Rogue = Movies Will Bomb
Question why are the speciality films like Black Swan,127 Hours released wider? It would make sense that both films would get an audience unless the films are running into issues with the audience research. Usually this time of year is when limited releases come out for Oscar consideration before wider release. My biggest disapointment with Sony is not giving the Social Network a much wider release in other markets. To cut the number of cinemas is like cutting those in your audience in small and medium markets off. But one could make the case of discrimination in some regions of the country too. As much publicity as the Social Network recieve Sony should’ve widen its release. Becouse not everyone can make it to a metro cinema to see it.
the social network was on 3,000 screens. if it still isn’t near you and it bothers you that much, move somewhere with smarter people.
if an A-lister starred in this movie, it would have had a wide-release.
With Portman, a limited release is called for to make sure all the Aronofsky and Portman fans go, avoiding the embarrassment that no one else gives a crap.
Everything you just said is wrong actually. You DEF don’t work in the industry, so stop trying to give justifications.
Man, I wish Black Swan was playing in my town!
I saw a TON of “Warrior’s Way” commercials on football games the last couple of weeks – including on the NFL network this week for Texans vs. Eagles – and it only convinced me not to see it as it looked derivative of “Sukiyaki Western Django” and “The Good, the Bad and the Weird.”
…and Jim Carrey picks another bomb. Does he need an “OSCAR” that bad?
It was a great movie, maybe that’s why Jim Carrey did it.
I love how a movie is so totally overhyped like “Black Swan” and then we have to invent ways of saying that it did well, when it didn’t! The only thing good about this movie was Mila Kunis! Winona isn’t in it enough to say.
I liked the film. But Kunis isn’t really in this much either, not like the advertising suggests.
What are your indicators the movie was “over-hyped?” The per screen average this week was really good. The critical community is almost universally enthusiastic for the thing. And every talk show I see Natalie Portman on, the hosts say she’s a lock for the Oscar. I see the same thing on Twitter from people who saw the movie this weekend. (I haven’t. It doesn’t come wide to Atlanta for another week or so.) The movie isn’t certainly “over-hyped,” and it had a good weekend.
the most overhyped thing i’ve ever seen.
and yeah
winona stole every scene she was in
even when she was unconscious in the hospital!
i don’t get it
yes, this movie was painfully overhyped! and for months now it’s been in the NY Times with that stupid natalie as swan photo. i admit it – it made me go see it since I loved the “red shoes” as a kid (and still do.) this movie was ludicrous. but i agree, Winona gets all the praise there is to give here, IMO.
@glory
let me get this straight: Black Swan, a movie that at most one in a hundred people even know of, is overhyped?
And let me get this straight: A movie, that with 18 screens will do about half of a movie that opened on 1500+ screens, failed in your opinion?
Your a Grade A moron.
True. It is overhyped in HOLLYWOOD, and we are looking at that as how it is being perceived across the entire country, which is just not true.
That said, I think the poster may have even be referring to how much hype Nikki has been giving it here.
Tangled suffers the expected post-Thanksgiving drop, but it still has Christmas ahead of it, so it should do well. Especially with good word of mouth.
No mention here of Harry Potter’s whopping 77% drop from last Friday, and this site still wants to give Potter the edge in weekend estimates despite every other site on the Web calling it for Tangled. How very peculiar.
Some were predicting Megamind would shoot back up to 3rd place this weekend, but that doesn’t look likely now. Too bad. It’s a decent little film, and together with How To Train Your Dragon has restored my faith in Dreamworks animation (which took a beating with the last 2 Shreks).
besides why dont you say how bad Tangled dropped? 74% is a lot.
Nikki DID say how much Tangled dropped, the figure is right there in her stats. But not the Potter figure (77%) for some reason…
and dropping 74% from FIRST friday is not nearly as bad as dropping 77% from 2nd to 3rd friday. Zero chance Potter wins the weekend since it will drop higher % than Tangled both saturday and sunday
Another Relativity bomb. When is that charade going to come to an end?
So… it’s possible that the new film The Black Swan in 18 theaters will make about 55% as much as The Warrior’s Way will make in 1,622 Theaters. (Estimated Weekends – $1.4M versus $2.6M.)
That would mean that on this particular weekend, The Black Swan is outperforming The Warriors Way by a factor of about 100x or so. If that’s the case, the 1,622 screen release for Warrior might wind up being a truely epic miscalculation.
i hate people who say epic.
But it might just be the widest opening, lowest grossing film of all time! That is epic.
Harry Potter has suffered some crushing drops over a very short period of time(just 3 weeks in theaters). Most people naturally assumed that after opening with 125 million dollars the first week that this film had the chance of busting out Avatar type success. Instead its not going to do any better than any other HP movie, domestically anyway. I’m just stunned at the HP drops thus far. Maybe it took too long for the studio to get all the films out and its core audience has outgrown it. Maybe, its just a bad film. I was told by a diehard Potter fan that he absolutely hated it. Whatever the reason, HP is failing to grow an audience. You would expect with current ticket prices to see a significant increase in box office results. But, the chances of that happening are looking slim. I’ll be curious to see how big of a Saturday and Sunday Tangled receives. That and Megamind seem to always get a big lift from weekend ticket purchases.
By the seventh film in an 8 film franchise there isn’t really much audience left to ‘grow’.
You’ve (a viewer I mean) either watched them all so far or you don’t give a fig about them period. No-one is suddenly going to start with the second to last film as their ‘first’ entry into the series.
It looks like it will come in on the lower end of the movies grosses when all is said and done, and will come in less than the relatively stable $290 – $300 million level of the last three films, but I don’t think that being a half a film is helping it with repeat business. It’ll still do a good $800+ million global at minimum. Which Tangled will not even come close to. And since it’s reported to have cost up to $260 million means Tangled will never make a profit for a long time yet.
Also – no-one expected HP to do Avatar type business. Anyone who did was living in an alternate reality. The HP films have a relatively stable series of final grosses. HP7, Part 1 was NOT going to blow that average out of the water after all this time.
Eh what? NOONE expected HP to bust out avatar type success. It will do right about what people were expecting
no one expected an avatar-like success for the new HP. people know it taps out somewhere just under $300 mil and quickly. sort of like twilight.
i know tons of HP fans who absolutely loved the new movie.
Another challenge its facing is its unfortunate lack of 3D. I know many people who said they would sit it out as HP was MADE for 3D. Hopefully (if the production exec doesn’t fuck it up this time) the last installment will have that, and will do much better.
As someone who has read the books and seen the movies, the problem with this latest entry is simply that there were periods were the film just stopped… as if biding for time… as if filling in to make it last the required run time.
Warners made a big mistake breaking the last book into two films. It seems the pacing of the story suffers and that is very clear at several instances in the movie where Harry is on the run. No he’s at a campsite. No he’s on the run. No he’s again at a campsite. Oh look, they found the sword. The pacing is what’s the issue here.
When Part 2 comes out, some enterprising young film buff is going to make the unauthorized, yet far superior, combination of 7A and 7B into just 7. And that will be the film they should have made.
Still, Warner’s is going to make a ton of money. And, yes, I will go and see how they handled the 2nd half of the book.
Color me disappointed. Greedy people always try to take one too many… and then the quality suffers.
How is Relativity suddenly able to self-distribute movies anyway?
re WARRIOR’S WAY ads: I saw between 12 and 20 over the last few weeks, so clearly they were spending smart money only, looking at precise demo’s & buying on sports-related programs.
Biggest problem is that it looks like a see-it-on-dvd type film, plus it sat on the shelf a bit too long.
who are you talking to? no one cares about your stupid predictions.
I’m 1,003,762 for 1,003,762.
What… you don’t believe me? How dare you?!?!?
Your mother cares steve. Deeply.
Keep in mind the rigorous Monte Carlo simulation analysis shows The Warrior’s Way over time should generate signficant revenue in foreign TV and DVD markets and that it’s more important to consistently hit singles and doubles than home runs (or at least that’s the song and dance Relativity is probably giving Elliot Associates and Paul Singer today….)
When is Aronofsky gonna dump that dumpy producer/leech of his?
Speciality films like the Swan whose trailer I would love to see would fair better in wider release. Why? I believe the studio would benefit from a much wider release instead of just 18 cinemas. Once again this proves that there is cultural discrimination going between both east and west coasts over certain films and fly over country gets the shaft. Have the studios done a real honest market demographic study to see how their audience has change over the decade? Of course the Swan is in speciality release perhaps for Oscar consideration. But the distrubters,studios should so some more consideration to thier audiences even in small,medium markets where it would get net gain in gross. Still I believe the studios,distrubetors are playing discrimination games with the rest of country where the real die hard film buffs are. Have some considered that that some of thier audience has Direct TV? I do and I’ve seen the trailer to Coen’s brother’s True Grit already.
Distrubters,studios should look into the fact that not all cinema houses don’t 3d techonology in thier houses yet. Some may not be in business for long becouse 3d took the cinema houses by surprise.
One word to the distrubtors and studios: the customer knows better than you. And some would like see wider releases.
it’s called business, dude. if they thought black swan would make significant amount of money in your podunk town, they’d open it there tomorrow. move somewhere where the average IQ is higher than 80 and you can see all the small indie, non-mainstream films your little heart desires.
Agree! My husband has been on location in various cities in Michigan, back to back on three shows, and we’re always FLOORED to see the art-houses are PACKED — oh, and guess what folks. African American people love a good art house movie too — can we all say, DUH! C’mon, get w the program, people. Everyone in distribution should go to middle America and sit in an actual theater — in Branson, Bloomfield, Ann Arbor, Des Moines, Springfield, MO, ABQ, Detroit, Royal Oak (MI). As an LA girl, I’ve been to movies in all these cities in the past two years and it’s valuable info. People still are turning out for movies! Everywhere!!
I can tell you mississippi doesn’t have any arthouse cinemas. I’d like to go to one but here in the southeast there aren’t any at all which is in my opioin a big slap in the face. Becouse an arthouse cinema would do well in my opioin. But not many non mainstream films get to play here which I believe some would go to. Listen Cinema here locally hasn’t installed 3d technology for the local audience. I can tell you the local cinema has lot out to the metro market cinemas in the Jackson Metro area. But there isn’t no arthouse cinemas here at all.
Hey Singer, how’s Relativity’s single picture library looking?
Hey Danny (whoever you are ….) I haven’t a clue … .
I’m at an 11:10pm Arclight Showing of Black Swan that was puported to be sold out. Does anyone know if the studios are buying up seats to “goose the grosses”!
Interesting. There seems to be a huge push to make this film seem like everyone’s flocking to it (no pun intended) when I think that’s not the case.
I don’t think its a conspiracy. I went to Landmark at 4:55 and it was packed. There was a 425 show and a 530 too.
The movie is going to be a cult classic and people are going to admire it for years.