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Over the past two years, Universal Pictures learned some hard lessons about adult dramas when high-priced films State of Play, Robin Hood, Duplicity and Green Zone failed to catch on with domestic audiences. This weekend, the studio will deliver some clarity on the immediate future of the adult comedy, when Universal opens The Dilemma, the Ron Howard-directed buddy comedy pairing Vince Vaughn and Kevin James. The film goes up against The Green Hornet, a 3D picture whose horrible Comic-Con buzz has turned been turned around by Sony Pictures Entertainment, which smartly moved the film out of the holiday corridor and repackaged it from a Seth Rogen pseudo-superhero film into a two-hander buddy comedy that happens to be about a superhero.
Insiders at Universal still like their chances with The Dilemma, which despite its PG-13 rating is chasing an adult audience. In Universal’s favor: James has become a comic star, and Vaughn has delivered in adult comedies Wedding Crashers, The Break-Up and Couples Retreat, all of which turned in domestic gross north of $100 million (a number that would make The Dilemma a win). The studio is also bullish because The Dilemma came in at around a $70 million budget, with a gross outlay somewhere in the 20% range. That gives The Dilemma a chance that Jim Brooks’ How Do You Know didn’t have, because its budget was just too high, at a reported $120 million. Brooks’ film opened at $7.5 million. Universal is hoping to reach the mid to high teens for MLK weekend, praying the film follows a track similar to the $12.6 million opening for As Good As It Gets, which reached $148 million domestic, or Nancy Meyers’ Something’s Gotta Give, which opened at $16.6 million and grossed $124.7 million domestic. Insiders feel that if the film can do upwards of $12 million over 3 days ($20 million for the 4-day weekend) and hang in for $75 million or above, Universal will be okay. And the adult comedy won’t be solely the domain of R-rated films by Judd Apatow and Todd Phillips. One thing for sure: adult comedies with $100 million budgets and full price star deals are as dead as disco.
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good! 100 mil for a comedy is a joke!
This isn’t a test of anything. This is Allan Loeb mailing it when he has 10 other projects he’s working on, like Ryan Murphy mailing in a horrible Eat, Pray Love. Not that it matters, because what matters in these movies is making money.
A real test is when you take a passion project from these fine talents, and see how it does. And not a Funny People, which is 300 minutes long, but a 100-120 minute comedy that’s PG-13, R, whatever. Something the team cares about, though.
Stupid question that will make it obvious I am an outsider: How the hell does a comedy cost $ 100 million? Is it mainly the stars’ salaries? I assume in addition to their salaries they also have a significant piece of the back end, am I right? Amazing!
Having said that, I still think this movie kicks the crap out of The Green Hornet this weekend despite the 3D upcharge.
“The studio is also bullish because The Dilemma came in at around a $70 million budget”
I don’t see why – that is a huge amount for a film of this type!
I always love when they blame a genre for a bad film failing. A story like this just makes me think that the studio is already prepping its excuse – hey, not my fault it tanked. The adult comedy genre just isn’t what it used to be. (Also, if this film was anything to write home about, Universal wouldn’t be opening it in January.)
From the ads and based on the casting of James and Vaughn, it doesn’t even seem like they committed to the adult comedy anyway. This seems more like an attempt to take a rather grown-up storyline and make it for the younger demo with Vaughn’s riffing and some physical comedy.
And on a mildly related note, is it me or is the regular guy/hot girl casting getting out of hand?
Ditto to everything Kevin said.
And there was never anything appealing about Vince Vaughn.
Exactly.
I agree as well with every point you make. Everything about the marketing of this movie has turned me off. As a frequent moviegoer, I should be an easy sell because I like Ron Howard’s films and I’m a big fan of the star-studded cast: Winona Ryder, Channing Tatum, Queen Latifah, Jennifer Connelly and (sometimes) Vince Vaughn. I think even though this is supposed to be an “adult” comedy, it’s being marketed as a very slapstick-type of comedy (a la Adam Sandler’s “Grown-Ups”). I think the movie’s going to turn away both young and older viewers.
15 year old photos of Vince Vaughn in the billboards
Kevin James crossing his fingers just out of frame
can we has something new?
YES! I thought I was the only one who thought those billboards look like they drudged up headshots of Vince Vaughn from his “Swingers” days.
Here in London I have had to stare at that poster for the past week while waiting for my train – that photoshopped-pic of Vince Vaughn is just creepy!
As to failing to catch on with domestic audiences, is that how you describe “Social Network” ???
As last time I checked “Robin Hood” made $105 million at the box office while “Social Network” never crossed the $100 million mark.
You clearly missed the point. “Robin Hood” cost a staggering $200M to make (thanks to Russell Crowe’s asking fee, production delays and on-set rewrites), and it didn’t break even worldwide. “Social Network” only cost $40M-$50M to make, and it handily made $200M worldwide.
There’s a difference. “Social Network” was made on the cheap, and it resonated with a lot of people.
Helena,
Social Network costs 60 – 75m, Robin Hood cost approx 150m
think thats speaks for itself
Robin Hood made $321 worldwide, that is better then breakeven!
not even close buddy
add in p & a worldwide and you’re easily talking 120m + 200m (if reports are accurate) and you quickly see how Robin Hood was a giant waster of time for all concerned except Crowe
If Dilemma fails, that’s not a statement about the overall “health” of the adult comedy. Why does Hollywood love generalizing so much with regards to box office numbers? Just because Avatar is the highest grosser of all time doesn’t mean they should continue making $500 million sci-fi adventures. Similarly, if Dilemma fails, that doesn’t mean we should stop making comedies aimed at adults. The problem is comedies aimed at adults have to have better scripts than your average Adam Sandler comedy. The Dilemma just doesn’t look good, and it doesn’t look funny. Why can’t it be that simple?
Absolutely right and well said. Execs need to stop this mindless generalization. Funny adult comedies work; crappy ones don’t.
amen. always generalizing from the wrong principles in this principle. this premise isn’t funny.
What I don’t get is what is ‘The Dilemma’ in question? — if your best friend’s spouse is cheating, you tell them. I’m so confused as to why this is an issue…
From what I can figure, Vaughn’s character doesn’t want to throw Kevin off his game with their work presentation.
If your best friend’s spouse is cheating, you mind your own business! Chances are he knows or suspects already, so your comments will be similar to telling a fat person he is overweight. If he doesn’t know you could very well be blamed for bringing up the bad news. It’s better to hope it all blows over.
I am so glad that we are not “Good” friends.
I’ve never heard a person reference a particular genre as a reason for/against seeing a movie. If a movie fails, take some responsibility.
And if “The Dilemma” is considered adult comedy, there are larger issues at play here.
I agree. WTF is the dilemma?
I admit I enjoyed Duplicity more than the marketing ever told me I should have. I still remember the trailer being horrific.
Wasn’t there something gay about this movie? Something about electric cars being gay? Well if gay means happy then count me in. If gay means something else include me out. I’m conservative I don’t want to see any rom-com that’s gay or even jokes about being gay. I won’t drive an electric car either they’re gay.
Does the quality of the movie not come into play? Audiences do like good movies. Last I checked this had a RotTom score in the 20′s.
C’mon John — other Vaughn “laffers” such as COUPLES RETREAT, THE BREAK UP and FOUR CHRISTMASES received some of the most savage reviews of the decade and still made a bundle, so let’s have no more illusions that “audiences do like good movies.”
Most of the time, they just can’t tell the difference.
All of these comments are completely on target. The notion that a movie tanks b/c audiences “aren’t interested in adult comedies” is patently absurd. They’re not interested in *your* adult comedy. And then the next time an adult comedy grosses huge, everyone will be madly scrambling for adult comedy scripts. The movie business is not a normal business – there are not necessarily objective criteria you can point to that will determine success or failure of your product.
Also, can someone with more knowledge of studio accounting please explain the numbers quoted above?
–What’s “gross outlay” mean?
–How does a movie make money with a $70m budget and a $75m gross when only about $40m of that comes back to the studio? That doesn’t even take P&A into consideration…
–Why this obsession with grosses and not profit? I get that a large gross increases ancillary numbers, but still, if you spend $70m on a movie, another $30m to market it and you only net $40m, don’t you lose money?
Forgive my ignorance, but I’ve honestly never understood how all this works.
There’s a difference between “grownup” and “adult.” The leads in this film aren’t adult, they’re all juvenile. An old fratboy is still a fratboy. Being adult isn’t saying “erection” instead of “boner,” it’s having a level of sophistication. “Adult” is Billy Wilder, Leo McCarey, Preston Sturges, Ernst Lubitsch, Blake Edwards, George Cukor, etc. And I’m not being nostalgic, I’m being hopeful about seeing a movie with some actual wit. If this one has any, it’s not apparent from the campaign.
Spot on! Thank you!!
If only someone in the Hollywood hierarchy would listen…
Beautifully put. Since I am not sure how many people understand what the phrase “adult comedy” means anymore I am hoping a few examples might help. ANNIE HALL…? BROADCAST NEWS…? THE GOODBYE GIRL…?
Adult comedies.
THE DILEMMA…?
Looks like infantile trash.
>adult comedies with $100 million budgets and full price star deals are as dead as disco.
Um… Little Fockers isn’t doing as well as the previous sequel but still will be profitable.
Yeah, the reason these movies are failing isn’t because they’re “adult comedies”. They’re failing because they suck. With the exception of Wedding Crashers (and As Good as it Gets, but that opened 12 years ago), every movie listed in the blurb was terrible. Bad scripts, actors mailing it in, etc. The problem in comedy is that because it’s star driven, studios have allowed it to become star driven. If they can get Vince Vaughn or whoever the studio says Oh, that’s enough, and they don’t bother with actually making a good picture. Because writing a star a $25m check is easy, and making a good movie is hard. And all the audience cares about is the star, right? Right.
There have been star-driven flops since the beginning of the star system. Yet somehow every genre survived and every genre is still produced today. There are no dead genres. There is only bad product.
I love a good adult comedy – The Hangover was awesome! – but I won’t be seeing this one. Ron Howard’s response to the whole “gay” usage issue was enough to turn me off this movie but I’m sure it’ll galvanize many others so it’ll all wash out in the end.
So Helena your argument is what, that Robin Hood is more successful than Social Network because it made $10m more?
Robin Hood cost $200m to produce without p&a and made $105m. It was expected to make $150-200m minimum domestic. Hence, didn’t take off with domestic audiences.
Social Network had a production budget of about $40m and made $95m domestic. It was expected to make $50-70m tops domestic. Hence, it took off with domestic audiences.
This is before you factor that the studio gets no more than 50% of receipts back so even ignoring p&a you’re looking at Universal getting back about $52.5m of Robin Hood’s $200m budget from domestic, while Sony get $47m against Social Network’s $40m budget.
International box office (over $105m) is therefore all upside to Sony, giving them back at least $52.5m for an above production cost (still admittedly ignoring p&a) profit of about $60m. Meanwhile Robin Hood’s apparently reasonable $216m IBO nets Universal about $108m back meaning that even without any p&a spend they’d still be roughly $40m short of the production budget.
Perspective, ever heard of it?
I think you’re underestimating how much The Social Network was expected to make. People were surprised it didn’t make more than 23 million on opening weekend.
Sorry, can someone explain what is meant by “with a gross outlay somewhere in the 20% range”..?
I don’t think anyone here knows what it means, including the author. It’s just goofy industry talk to make one seem more knowledgeable that the next guy.
And personally, I would love if studios started reporting how many actual tickets were sold. That would be a fun exercise.
It means that 20% of the gross is going off the top to actors/director.
Isn’t THE HANGOVER an adult comedy? How does it play any wider than THE DILEMMA, a movie with Vince Vaughn and the Mall Cop? Weak argument…
I’m an adult and I like adult comedy, but you couldn’t drag me to a Vince Vaughn and (especially) Kevin James movie.
Universal has helped kill adult comedy. In the past five years they’ve snapped up a lot of great comedy specs that could be made in the 30 million range and then developed them to death or let them sit on shelves. Not naming names, but some of the scripts they’ve chosen not to make and have ruined blow my mind.
Apatow is great, but people are tiring of his voice and company of players. Still, he should be able to make what he wants although I’m not sure doing a Knocked Up spin off is the right move.
The best thing Uni can do is stop getting into bed with the crappy SNL talent and actually make some cheap comedies with talent other than the obvious suspects. 20-30 million dollar comedies are where it’s at. You can make your money back on those and if you have a hit it’s ATM print your money time.
That said, I hope The Dilemma does well because I really like Vince and Kevin as comedy stars. Kevin just needs to stop making formulaic movies with Todd Garner who is the grim reaper of comedy.
If you ask people over 30 if they would go see The Dilemma or Green Hornet this weekend most will go to The Dilemma. It has a chance to have a big weekend if people leave their houses. Big “if” there.
I agree with Cindy. Maybe it’s not made clear in the trailer, but what is the “dilemma” of this movie? If I found out my best friend’s wife was cheating on him, I’d sit him down and tell him immediately. No question. I’m sure they’ve figured out a way around that in the movie, but they dont set it up clearly in the trailers I’ve seen.
Motor-mouth smartass who stars in fart/vomit/groin-injury comedies plus fat guy who keeps bumping into things and breaking them equals “adult?” To quote Mandy Patinkin in a genuine adult comedy, “You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.”