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UPFRONTS 2013: The Overachievers 
SATURDAY PM/SUNDAY AM, 4TH UPDATE: It’s clear that too many potential moviegoers were busy watching March Madness basketball these past 3 days. After some pre-weekend uncertainty, the North American office has a clear road warrior: Virgin/Relativity’s Limitless starring Bradley Cooper and Robert De Niro. It finished #1 with $6.6 million Friday and $7.4M Saturday and an estimated $5M Sunday for an overperforming $19M after Hollywood expected just a $10M-to-$15M result.
After that, it was a freeway pile-up with holdover Paramount’s Rango coming in 2nd because of a big Saturday matinee kiddie bump, followed by another holdover Sony Pictures’ Battle: Los Angeles coming in 3rd. Working Title/Universal’s Paul fell behind Lionsgate’s The Lincoln Lawyer*. Lionsgate is now saying 190,000 tickets were sold for The Lincoln Lawyer through the 48-hour Groupon/Fandango discount deal, with about 20,000 actually redeemed at the box office Friday and another 18,000 redemmed Saturday (about a 20% redemption rate). This comes to about 2.5% of the box office but that’s enough Lionsgate-subsidized ticket coin to change the film rankings for this very competitive weekend. ”It was always about awareness,” Lionsgate emails. “This was a new marketing promotion that reached 4 million people for not a whole lot of money.” Here is the Top 10.
1. Limitless (Relativity) NEW [2,756 Theaters]
Friday $6M, Saturday $7.6M, Weekend $19M
I have to say it’s nice to see Ryan Kavanaugh’s Relativity Media receive a Big Gulp at the box office after a long drought on the movies he distributes. And this wasn’t even a schlocky film. It was also co-produced by Virgin Produced, Sir Richard Branson’s first film from his newly formed production company. Relativity released the upscale Limitless in the U.S. through its own maturing distribution system and in Canada via Alliance Films and now can celebrate this success. So can Bradley Cooper who’s now a bonafide post-Hangover movie star able to open a film on his name and image alone. (No way this film would have been as successful with Shia LaBeouf in the lead role which was the case when Relativity’s Rogue Pictures first took it over after it moved from Miramax to Intermedia to Universal.) The estimated gross was well above Relativity’s and Hollywood’s projections mostly thanks to a smart marketing campaign that tapped into the most intriguing elements of the pic’s high-concept plot in an easy-to-grasp way for both guys and gals. (Take that pill? For me, Bayer Aspirin with an Advil chaser has the same effect.) Best of all, the pic’s production cost supposedly just under $30 million, reduced from the $50M budget Universal had earmarked, a veritable bargain these days especially considering the presence of both Cooper who also snagged an executive producer credit and Robert De Niro. (“Our net investment is under $1 million as a result of our successful foreign sales and soft money initiatives from the Pennsylvania tax rebate for shooting on location in Philadelphia,” a Relativity exec tells me.) CinemaScore was a B+. Exit polls showed the audience was 52% female and 48% male, while 40% was under 25 and 60% was age 25 and over. The ethnic breakdown of moviegoers was 43% Caucasian and 57% non-Caucasian including 19% Hispanic, 17% African-American, 11% Asian, and 11% other. The film was directed by Neil Burger (The Illusionist) who normally writes and helms his own films. But writer Leslie Dixon acquired the rights to the novel “The Dark Fields” by Alan Glynn and adapted the screenplay for less than her normal quote in exchange for being made one of the film’s producers. Then she and fellow producer Scott Kroopf approached Burger to direct the film.
3. Rango (Paramount) Week 3 [3,843 Theaters]
Friday $4.1M, Saturday $6.7M, Weekend $15.3M, Cume $92.5M
2. Battle: Los Angeles (Sony Pictures) Week 2 [3,417 Theaters]
Friday $4.5M, Saturday $6.1M, Weekend $14.6M (-59%), Cume $60.6M
4. The Lincoln Lawyer* (Lionsgate) New [2,707 Theaters]
Friday $4.4M, Saturday $6M, Weekend $13.4M
5. Paul (Working Title/Universal) NEW [2,802 Theaters]
Friday $4.5M, Saturday $5.2M, Weekend $13.1M
Another of those Simon Pegg and Nick Frost farces (Hot Fuzz, Shaun Of The Dead), this comedy isn’t from American filmmakers who tend to do the vast majority of their business domestically. But not even Steven Spielberg playing a small part in this E.T./Close Encounters Of The Third Kind spoof could improve modest North American grosses for Universal’s Paul. But it doesn’t much matter. Because Working Title pics make all their money overseas, and this one already has performed “incredibly” in the UK and France with $28.1M international cume, according to Universal which said worldwide grosses after this weekend are $41.3M on a $40M budget. Internationally the film continues its rollout with another five territories and has 53 more territories to go in the coming months. The film’s domestic tracking had been growing — or so the studio thought — but the pic ended smack in the middle of so-so $10M-$15M expectations. Cinemascore was a “B+” with under age 25 moviergoers giving it an “A-”. Audience composition was 56% male/44% female, and 58% over age 25/42% under age 25. Relativity Media is a partner in the film.
6. Red Riding Hood (Warner Bros) Week 2 [3,030 Theaters]
Friday $2.4M, Saturday $3.1M, Weekend $7.2M (-48%), Cume $25.9M
7. The Adjustment Bureau (MRC/Universal) Week 3 [2,660 Theaters]
Friday $1.7M, Saturday $2.6M, Weekend $5.9M, Cume $48.7M
8. Mars Needs Moms 3D (Disney) Week 2 [3,117 Theaters]
Friday $1.5M, Saturday $2.2M, Weekend $5.3M (-28%), Cume $15.4M
9. Beastly (CBS Films/Sony) Week 3 [1,810 Theaters]
Friday $1M, Saturday $1.2M, Weekend $3.2M, Cume $22.2M
10. Hall Pass (New Line/Warner Bros) Week 4 [1,905 Theaters]
Friday $825K, Saturday $1.1M, Weekend $2.6M, Cume $39.5M
FRIDAY 6:30 PM: It’s going to be a wild and wooly weekend, guys and gals. Right now anyone predicting with any certainty the Top 5 order of finish for the top grossing North American movies is either a) The World’s Greatest Psychic, or b) none of my box office gurus, or c) not me. It’s a ridiculously close horse race between adult fare newcomers Limitless (Virgin/Relativity), The Lincoln Lawyer* (Lionsgate) whose movie tickets were deeply discounted through a Groupon promotion underwritten by the studio, Paul (Working Title/Universal), and holdovers Battle: Los Angeles (Sony Pictures), and Rango (Paramount). I can report that Hollywood doesn’t expect any of today’s opening pics to reach $20M. Instead most of the Top 5 will be huddled in a mediocre muddle somewhere between $13M-$15M with perhaps Battle: LA pushing to $16M if its drop isn’t too much more than -50% from last weekend’s debut. Several studios in competition today think their movies will surge in tonight’s late shows despite Limitless and The Lincoln Lawyer and Paul already looking bunched around $5.2M-$5.3M. Rango is waiting to surge from Saturday kiddie matinees. ”Anyone could move up or down 1 or 2 spots,” one exec notes.
*Deadline’s weekend box office coverage of The Lincoln Lawyer‘s opening grosses will come with a big asterisk. Lionsgate’s deal with Groupon is to sell $6 movie tickets. There’s also a $5 coupon so the price of one movie ticket comes down to $1 for new Groupon customers only. Limit of all the discounted tickets is 2 per person, plus 2 additional bought as gifts. Not valid for IMAX or 3D showings. Now the exhibs do get reimbursed for the full ticket price. But, tell me, what’s the dollar figure that Lionsgate is going to report to me for grosses this weekend?
For more estimates listed by title, see box office results here...Editor-in-Chief Nikki Finke - tip her here.
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The asterisk is correct.
the asterick is moronic, unless Lionsgate is lying and is really inflating the grosses. all ticket prices aren’t created equal as is, what with 3D and Imax and Imax 3D and the Arclight’s $14 tickets and $5 matinees in Middle America and discount coupons purchased thru employers, blah blah blah… this is just a stupid non-issue.
The asterisk (not asterick) is correct. It isn’t about 3D or matinee pricing it’s about a studio giving up a portion of the revenue from opening weekend ticket sales. It does in fact inflate their gross and it will in fact make it more difficult for the film to reach profitability. Given the reaction from the industry at large it is safe to assume that they won’t be doing this for an opening weekend again. Looking ahead it will be interesting to see what kind of more appropriate partnerships the studios can create with GroupOn.
What did Lionsgate hope to accomplish with the groupon move; I can get behind the discount, but then inflating the ticket price from 1$ full price to try to claim what; third place? Hardly seems worth the ignomy. Better to claim the loss and write it off on taxes.
The Groupon/Lincoln Lawyer deal is to movie promotions what Rebecca Black is to music.
Best. Comment. Ever.
Except that Lincoln Lawyer has gotten good reviews.
And that’s the point exactly. I read all the comments here last night and didn’t know what to think. In the end I don’t think the groupon promotion was a gambit to pump an expected poor first weekend.
Now that I’ve seen the film, I think it was a smart marketing move. Follow me here:
First off, the film is great, actually strong on every level. I had a 20, 45, and 60 year old with me and all really enjoyed it, as did the aud in general it seemed.
So here’s the distributor with what they feel is a really, really good film, BUT a film that is perhaps a bit hard to market. I mean, It’s a lawyer film, right? So they figure – Let’s put as many eyes on it first weekend as possible and look for the word of mouth.
I think it was a smart play, gambling on a second weekend is always risky, but they have a good film here and I think putting eyes on it on weekend one, that wouldn’t normally have been that at the expense of opening grosses on a hard to market film was a good risk to take.
For my money, the film will have legs.
Let’s see if the gamble works. I think it was smart.
This is the year of the Great Movie Theater Crash. Box Office used to be the thing we cared about but is now just a leading indicator. Actual physical theater attendance means less and less to eventual studio revenues.
Not so long ago if you missed a first run movie there would be frequent revivals at neighborhood theaters and/or downtown grind houses. Who today goes out to see a ten year old film? Obviously we watch them on CineMax, Starz, or Turner Classic movies instead. That’s now happening to first run movies – we are watching them first on our home sets.
I have adult friends who have never attended the opera, the symphony or a live play. This is not because they are poor but because they are rich. Thay have music and drama in their Home Theater and on their iPad. We are growing a generation who will have never been in a movie theater although they have watched a lot of movies – perhaps beamed into their eyepieces while they hike in the woods.
Rango was good. Just saw Limitless. Virgin touch is refreshing!
Nikki — my gosh — give it a rest. Is this not unlike movie studios giving away free movie tickets to say radio stations or more comparably if this had been a kids movie — which does offer discounted prices for kids — yet those are not counted any differently.
@ryan
NO this is NOT like giving free promo screenings away. Free Promos screenings A) happen in a localized market and B) a maximum of 400 people per Market see the movie for free, not the 190,000 that the LA Times is claiming got in on this deal. This will artificially inflate Lincoln Lawyers Box Office by $2MM if we assume all deals are processed in Fandango. It’s devaluing content plain and simple.
If a studio can artificially inflate their box office then the consequences will never be the same.
How is this any different from Kevin Smith reporting inflated numbers for his RED STATE Q&A tour? Nobody seemed to protest when that film showed up on the charts, with its ridiculous $140 tickets (in NYC).
Box office reporting is the new wild west.
It was a joke. Relax.
You should form a smart counter to your dumb counter.
When a studio sneaks NewMovie on the weekend before release, say, in an 8pm slot that might otherwise be generating a gross on the screen occupied by OldMovie, those tickets aren’t free, are they? And which picture gets the benefit of the ticket sale? Not NewMovie, I don’t think (but I could be wrong). So where does that get reported?
More questions: why shouldn’t Lionsgate make a deal to sell tickets at six bucks to a third party if that’s what they think will get people in the theaters to talk about their movie? And if a third-party decides to further promote itself on the eve of an IPO valuation by paying down even more of the price, why not so much the better?
And finally, who cares whether LINCOLN LAWYER comes in first or second or fourth this mediocre weekend? Really, who cares?
I care that the audience for movies is voting with its feet, walking away from the theaters, that the industry I’ve spent thirty years in is alienating its audience with mediocre product, high prices and barriers to consumption (ie, windows), not whether one of the current bunch makes .2 more than another entry in this weekend’s suck fest (I exclude Rango from that descriptor: it’s original).
[By the way, you didn't say your big asterisk was gonna be a big RED asterisk. Kinda piling on, ain't ya?]
Obviously you care, since you’re in here crying about how the red asterisk is piling it on, oh noes!
I live in West Hollywood, and I rarely pay full price for a movie. Plain and simple, the majority of them are not worth it. And clearly others feel the same as I do.
I support Lionsgate for recognizing this simple fact, and attempting to work with it, as opposed to fighting it. Clearly, the ‘old school’ method of releasing a film and relying upon its B.O. grosses as some accurate measure of its’ value do not work anymore.
Hollywood (and its organized labor) needs to learn that the world has changed over the past 10+ years, and if it wants to continue to be the leader in producing entertainment, it needs to change its business models. Otherwise, it will most definitely become decimated like the music recording industry (just look at the number of records/downloads ‘sold’ in 2010 vs. 2000).
The world has changed…and as much as the egos in Hollywood would like to believe they are above it all, in truth, at the moment they are well below it all.
Thanks for the asterisk, I thought the BO looked off.
I get the groupon emails and when I saw the Lincoln Lawyer deal, even though I am thinking about seeing it, it felt—cheap and gimmacky.
I admit I’ve been getting burned out on all the ‘groupon type’ offers recently, so many of them out there and none of them ringing the ‘buy this’ bell for me.
If it works, then I suppose we’ll see more offers for low price tickets for certain films….
Having read all the Connolly books, I was not/am not looking forward to seeing McConaughey in the title role….I hope I’m proved wrong.
And ryan–it is different from giving away tickets on the radio, etc. I had gotten a deal on cupcakes from a chain with a location in Pasadena. Deal was cancelled as Pasadena location didn’t get enough business to keep it open. Since then I look at the places offering deals and wonder what’s the need behind their deal.
Lets say 70,000 people end up seeing The Lincoln Lawyer for 1 dollar. All you would do is take off around $700,000. There is no need for this asterisk. When the numbers come in Saturday night or Sunday morning just subtract that amount and tell everyone why. No need for that big red asterisk every time you mention Lincoln Lawyer.
The Lincoln Lawyer is the best movie I’ve seen this year. Completel surprised. And I’ve seen quite a bit so far. Best marketing campaign ever by Lionsgate? Word of mouth should be outstanding.
Yes. A one-sheet that includes the plot spelled out on the license plate is the best marketing campaign ever. Your taste is impeccable. This movie is not.
couldn’t agree more – i too was “Completel surprised” COMPLETEL! of course what this actually means is that “LL” is a stinky POS L&O ep. as the latin root of the word “Completel” is “sitting or sedentary turd”.
Kids, calm down. Lincoln Lawyer is performing nicely ahead of the other titles in Canada as well, where they do not have the Groupon / Fandango promotion.
I get discounted movie passes all the time for around 6.50 so this groupon deal is similar — so what is the big deal — and why are you so ANGRY about it? Every movie spends millions on promoting every movie and the lincoln lawyer has got superb reviews — it’s just designed to get people into the movie theater — so instead of spending millions on ads, i don’t see what the problem is in giving us consumers a deal, nor do I understand why the rest of you are complaining about getting a bargain of a deal.
It’s a shame “Paul” isn’t doing as well. It’s one of those good films Universal horribly mismarketed (which they do with almost every film they do nowadays), but hopefully good word-of-mouth will buoy it. I haven’t laughed so hard at a comedy for a LONG time.
thanks, matt c, for holding up your end of the bargain. you’re check is in the mail
^^^This made me chuckle.
Glad your amused!
It’s the consequence of fanboy directors crawling up their own butts, appealing to ever smaller niches. They want to prove their bonafides to the geeks by referencing ever more obscure geekery, and ultimately find themselves stranded on the fringes. Yes, I’m looking at you next Zack Snyder.
I don’t work for Universal, nor am I affiliated with the director or cast. It’s a funny movie, plain and simple. Trust me, I had little interest in seeing “Paul” until someone dragged me to it, and I’m glad I did.
…”ever more obscure geekery”? You mean like E.T., CLOSE ENCOUNTERS OF THE THIRD KIND, ALIENS and all the other well-known mainstream movies PAUL references?
Science fiction, which you deride as “geekery,” has been a major driving force of the movie industry for decades now. Grow up.
Huh, all this mainstream referencing must be why PAUL is doing gangbusters at the box office then.
The main characters go to Comic-Con at the beginning of the movie.
If you pay me what they paid you, I’ll go see this movie too.
Yeah, PAUL is pure shit. I mean, ‘sit there and watch in disbelief’ shit.
Very odd to watch Simon Pegg trying to be Ricky Gervais.
Matt C. is an example of how being a publicist damages your writing style. Lovely phrases like, “I haven’t laughed so hard at a comedy for a LONG time,” “someone dragged me to it,” and of course, “Trust me.”
You can’t fake sincerity. People who actually love a comedy will start with something, a scene or character or a joke they loved. Look at the early comments for Todd Phillips’ HANGOVER, for instance.
“Matt C. is an example of how being a publicist damages your writing style.”
This made me laugh.
“mismarketed” in the way Kickass was – trailers make it look like a fun, comic-booky romp and then people either do their homework, check out whats behind that ‘R’ and stay away or get sucked in and then post all over the web that the film with that cute little puppet character is NOT for the kids – that it is lewd, violent and foul mouthed. Appropriate for an ‘R’ film but not smart enough for adults and not scaled down enough for the young ones. Look for this to plummet.
How do you correctly market an R rated comedy that looks like a goofy kids’ movie? Given the difficulty of the sell, I’d say U did pretty well.
I have heard that “Paul” has a very anti Christian bias. It makes fun of Christians and basically promotes the idea that unless you change from being one you are not OK. I think I will pass on this movie.
What Paul does is poke fun at extremely conservative Christians. it absolutely isn’t anti Christian nor does it promote “change from being one” Kristen Wiig’s character (the born-again christian who starts to question her ultra conservative beliefs) made the movie for me – some of the funniest one-liners i’ve heard in a while. Of course if you’re uptight, ultra-conservative, not into dick and fart jokes then by all means avoid this movie.
However, if you have a good sense of humor and enjoy comedies with very inappropriate language and at times childish humor it’s a must see. i personally am not into sci-fi and wasn’t the biggest fan of Shaun of the Dead and Hot Fuzz and expected Paul to be underwhelming at best but i walked out laughing and quoting it for weeks (i saw it several months ago at a screening). I have literally been recommending it to everyone who has been asking me what to see this weekend and no I’m not getting paid by Universal. Not everyone has the same opinions so just because some uptight pricks on this board don’t like the movie doesn’t mean that anyone that has something good to say about it is somehow affiliated with the producers or distributors of it.
I have a well developed sense of humor and love movies – but if the industry thinks of poking fun at extremely conservative religions I wonder that I see so few extremely conservative Jewish or Muslim – or Buddist or Sikh or Scientologist – characters in film being made the butt of jokes.
And have to agree with some of the above – the movie looked like a take on ET. Then I read a piece that referred to the “hard R”, and was put off by the reason behind the rating.
I wouldn’t cry for those two Brits just yet because it looks like this will be their highest grossing and most profitable movie. Go figure.
“Paul” was horrible. What a waste of time & money. Not funny at all. Lame BS.
You are just stirring stuff – the asterisk crap is a non-issue. 1) What about matinee prices? 2) What about the 2nd run theaters that offer tickets for $3 – 5 3) I got the $1 Group-on Email, couldn’t get the code to redeem and ended up buying the ticket for $6, bet this happened to the majority of people, so it’s like a bunch of matinee tickets 4) You have an obvious agenda and bias against the studio and/or producers and that’s just crappy journalism putting you in the Fox news category 5) Lincoln Lawyer is one of the best movies I’ve seen in the past year, better than 80% of the Oscar nominees last year and a better performance for MM than 80% of the nominees for best actors 6) Is this really so controversial that there might be a discrepancy in data reporting from a studio, don’t you remember the Harry Potter statement you published 7) MOST IMPORTANTLY, LL IS THE BEST REVIEWED MOVIE OF THE WEEKEND – WOULDN’T BE REFRESHING TO SEE THE CRITICAL WINNER END UP AT TOP OF THE BOX OFFICE FOR ONCE!
The work continues, Nikki. The burden this woman carries by giving all of you up to the date results via www, keeping apprised by knowing exactly what time it is in Japan in the back of her mind.
RESPECT NIKKI.
Nice try, “Matt C.”, you freakin’ plant! PAUL is terrible, Universal is not guilty of mismarketing. They are stuck with a turd that can’t be polished. After SHAUN OF THE DEAD and HOT FUZZ, I expected a fun, smart comedy. Instead, its a meandering, overlong pastiche. Clearly, these two don’t have it without Edgar Wright!
If I was a plant, would I have insulted Universal’s marketing division? No. Do I think Universal’s upcoming slate of movies will suck? Yes.
So no. I’m as much a plant for Universal just as Nikki is a plant for New Line.
Nikki,
Theatre chains sell discounted tickets all the time and report grosses based on the full ticket price. This isn’t new. All this is is the studio doing it on their end for once, for one particular film.
And what of films that have 3D or IMAX surcharges? Shouldn’t those films come with asteriks too!???!!
Nicely put. What about seniors and children ticket prices which are lower. Shouldn’t rango get an asterisk too because most of those tickets are children’s tickets.
Limitless rocked. Leslie Dixon expertly steered it outside the studio system. http://bit.ly/g6JTj0
Funny because Limitless looks totally like a generic, studio film.
Along with the hack De Niro trotting out his usual routine and looking permanently constipated while doing it. Yawn.
I had the exact same thought. Limitless looks like the very definition of a studio movie.
Why so hard on Lincoln Lawyer. Everyone says it’s a good movie. It has 81% on Rotten Tomatoes.
If only 19,000 Groupons were purchased, then it shouldn’t affect its box office too dramatically. Also, I wouldn’t be surprised if “Lincoln Lawyer” makes it to number 2 or maybe 1 this weekend. Adults see movies on Saturdays. Working at a movie theater, I really think “Limitless” peeked tonight. That core young male demographic will be watching the NCAA tournament this weekend looking at their brackets. And what will women do? They will want to get out of the house and see the new Matthew McConaughey movie with their girlfriends. Or maybe younger women will want to see Bradley Cooper? Who knows, but don’t dismiss “Lincoln Lawyer” yet.
My bad. Technically, 200,000 were sold, but it will be interesting to see how many are redeemed. I am 0-3 for using purchased Groupons.
Please learn to read before commenting. It says 200,000 groupons sold with only 19,000 redeemed thus far.
Nikki, can you please include estimated/reported budgets with your weekly box office? Really helps to give the numbers some context.
An east coast film reviewer did a phoner w/a Philadelphia host and praised Limitless to the skies – had no interest in seeing it, now i plan to check it out. Lincoln Lawyer looks too much like Jagged Edge w/McConaghay in the Glenn Close role.
I think what feels different about Lionsgate subsidizing ticket prices is that the studio is creating an unlevel playing field in that they are using their own money to purchase a portion of these tickets. Thus they are clearly inflating the gross. Hollywood is a business and these numbers matter far more than the quality of the product put out. The second question is why this movie? Is it just a coincidence or did they suddenly start to worry about this film. Finally, in NYC a number of years ago, Broadway producers decided to offer half-priced tickets to Broadway plays. It is controversial whether or not it made money or cost money. But it made it harder to sell full-priced tickets because people expected discounts from then on. But there does need to be an asterisk by the LL’s numbers if some of the gross is actually Liongate’s money.
More importantly than arguing, let’s say, on a definition of “gross,” what’s going to stop anyone from smiling when some LG pr guy starts stalking about profit?
Saw “Lincoln Lawyer” last night at a packed Arclight theatre in Hollywood (no Groupon). Was pleasantly surprised by the supporting cast whose faces I don’t see enough (Shea Wigham!) and I thought the soundtrack was interesting for this type of film (Gang Starr, Erick Sermon, Eric B & Rakim). Went into it thinking it was going to be a remix of “A Time to Kill” and…it sort of was, but it was entertaining. A few people were cheering during the movie (granted, they were women) but overall, the audience seemed to enjoy it.
The amazing thing is that Limitless is doing business at all. We went last night and left after twenty minutes. It’s unbearable. Seriously. Unbearable.