It may be indelicate to make this argument just as thousands of fantasy fans are converging on San Diego for the annual Comic-Con. But the movie business may soon find itself mourning “the death of superheroes,” Susquehanna Financial Group’s Vasily Karasyov says in an intriguing report this morning. The analyst says that the boom in superhero movies began around 2000 as computer generated imagery (CGI) made it easier for filmmakers to credibly show action that defies the laws of physics. Virtually all of the most popular films of the last decade couldn’t have been made without CGI. Within that group Karasyov counts 16 superhero films, not counting sequels, resulting in four franchises: Fox’s X-Men, Sony’s Spider-Man, Warner Bros’ Batman, and Paramount’s Iron Man. Yet nothing has taken off since Iron Man came out in 2008, he says, largely because studios have already tapped their hottest properties. “As film studios dig deeper into catalogues for characters for new films, we think the chances of finding a break out property are diminishing fast” — even though the films still come with high production costs — Karasyov writes. If superhero films fail to catch on, then studios can forget about raking in lots of additional revenue from licensed merchandise. The bottom line: Investors should expect “growing risks to (financial growth) estimates” for companies including Disney and Time Warner that are looking to superheroes to help rescue their studio profits. And Disney CEO Bob Iger may end up regretting his decision to pay $4B for Marvel in 2009: Disney made that deal at “the top of the (comic book) character remonetization cycle,” Karasyov says.


Let’s hope so. Tee hee.
Exactly. I cant wait for the day to see these movies fail. So boring stuff.
Then don’t watch them. Oh, look, problem solved.
I looked, but problem wasn’t solved — guess you’re a little near sighted.
What you’re basically saying is don’t watch the 10 biggest budgeted films of the year — if you are a movie fan and enjoy blockbusters, that’s a problem and it’s not solved by not watching them.
I mean you do realize that that 2 or 3 hundred mil spent on these tired re-treads (for the most part with a few exceptions) would be spent on blockbusters that vary in theme as opposed a superhero fighting a crazed villain over and over again, right?
“would be spent on blockbusters that vary in theme”
When in history has that actually happened, when studios didn’t follow the same trends that are working for everyone else?
Articles like this always make me laugh and roll my eyes. Thor was a hit, X-Men: First Class was a hit and Captain America was excellent. The Avengers, Batman and Spider-Man all come next year, with Thor 2, Iron Man 3 and Superman coming the year after. After Avengers, Marvel’s plans for round two of their movie franchise cross-overs is going to be fully planned out.
We’ll see if the Superhero franchise is gone in… ohhhhh 10 years.
There is decades worth of pent up demand for proper treatment of these and related properties. I agree there is a glut at the moment but quality can win out. It’s the studios that will treat this stuff like easy money or that keep remaking the same movie twice a decade that will get slapped for trying.
The catch up artists and wannabes are easy to spot at this point as they only try to copy those parts of Iron Man and The Dark Knight that are most obvious. If the thinking stays that limited then yes they will crash and burn.
Captain America looks excellent.
agree, Captain America looks good.
No genre is ever dead, it’s what you do with it, so creative reinvention and quality storytelling will always win in the end.
What a great headline to start my day. Thank you, David.
Um, duh.
Is this guy an idiot? I understand he wasn’t counting sequels but the Batman franchise is still strong, Avengers is sure to be huge and Marvel Studios’ crossovers will be big as well. I do think that the market has been over-saturated with superhero movies and there have been many mediocre offerings (Daredevil, Fantastic Four, Ghost Rider, Green Lantern, Jonah Hex, etc…) but to say the entire genre is dead or dying? That just doesn’t make sense, it’s the problem of studios needing to make better movies in general, not with a lack of interest in the genre. People also forget that no one thought Iron Man would do anything and its success is what started the latest comic book movie boom. On the flipside, analysts considered Hulk and Spider-Man to be Marvel’s two most profitable/marketable properties with the highest interest levels — both have now been rebooted.
It’s up to the movie studios to stop making crap movies, it’s not that people are not interested in a good comic book movie.
It seems like many are missing the point. 3D will probably work…someday…but, the backlash from the audiences from all the money they spent to see crap 3D has and will continue to slow down 3D growth and trust that it actually aids the storytelling, and it is worth the extra cost.
If the studios made great Super Hero films…this would not be the problem it has become. No longer will we flock to see these films until social networking provides reviews. And Thor and Clash of the Titans were reasonably successful…but, after all costs are added to the production…400 million isn’t a huge box office return without counting all the other revenue streams. WB may make a second Green Lantern as studios have so much invested in brand awareness as a result of the huge investment in the marketing of the first GL.
The market has been disappointed by many of the newer action hero films, and it will be cautious.
The real problem is that studios notoriously run various themes into the ground with sheer volume of product poorly executed. The same dynamic applies to television themes.
In any case, for example, I am a HUGE Superman fan…probably, my childhood favorite Super Hero. After the many Superman films to date…and, not sure about Zack Snyder’s execution…I will wait for others to tell me about it…even before I attend the screening.
For those who live in the gamer world (and this is a huge industry which beats film revenues)…all these films are just great big screen visuals, and they have a bit more story than the game. This huge market just wants to see more effects on a big screen…the story is not high on the agenda.
I agree there are many Super Heros that can be great film franchises…but, the studios are going for quantity…not quality…and, that is what is turning off a large part of this audience.
Super Heroes are already dead, but studios are slow to understand when things are overdone as they reach for the box office pot o’ gold which has been generated by several Super Hero film (franchises). If you don’t believe this…just look at what the studios have done to 3D.
Besides, aren’t we about to enter the years of ‘fairy tale’ stories as the next big thing trying to duplicate Alice’s BILLION dollar box office….follow the money…up and down.
He’s kind of a big deal actually, not a no name.
What’s ruining the movie business are bean counters like this. Movies aren’t fucking widgets you pinstripe commodity junkie.
Amen, say it loud and proud.
While it’s true that we haven’t seen any “through the stratosphere” results like Iron Man in ’08, part of that is also because the studios have been taking more risks with their studio properties and kind of digging into the genre a little deeper to find other viable routes within. Thor was much more fantasy-skewing with very little familiar, contemporary superhero elements. X-Men: First Class went with unfamiliar faces in the 1960s and had the job of rebooting expectations for a previously bloated franchise. Captain America is taking a risk by basically being a World War II adventure that happens to have a man in a costume. Last summer we didn’t even have a traditional superhero movie aside from Iron Man 2, with something like Kick Ass, a satire of the super hero genre, as the closest offering.
Most of these have at least garnered goodwill from their audience because they’re settling in to the genre and want to explore it. Probably the most glaring critical failures in the last few years were X-Men Origins: Wolverine and Green Lantern, and both of those suffered because they didn’t embrace the unique elements that would have made them discernable from a non-superhero action movie (the darkness of the character, which will hopefully be fixed with the sequel, and the cosmic elements that were ignored in favor of a standard “hero’s journey” plot).
I don’t know. I’m just happy that we’re at the point now where we get to see cool things like Watchmen, a real big deconstruction of the genre, or The Avengers, an unprecedented team-up between four other movies. And worse comes to worse, the merchandising will always be strong…
Great post, couldn’t agree more. As a fan, I try to support as many as I can because as a kid in the 80s, pre-Burton, we had, uhhh, NOTHING. Donner’s Superman was great, but very 70s, and even after Burton, they made a few, but they were mostly retreads of his Batman. I’m sure there will be another “Iron Man” that surprises and injects energy into the genre in the next few years. Speculators like this guy only want to create a stable investment environment, which means it’s their job to “predict” trends that they are really just trying to manifest.
Oh yeah? Wait til Gastric Man makes his debut!
Man O’ Man… that’s the only funeral I’d wear Orange too.
please please please… somebody put them out of their misery.
uh… Ironman wasn’t a first tier character. Theory debunked. Next…
Ready to move on.
What about Thor? Thor has made $444 million worldwide on a budget of $150 million. Thor came out this year. This person is clueless. We aren’t allowed to count sequels? Why? So Karasyov can pretend to be right? I guess Karasyov won’t let us count next year’s Avengers movie, or the Spider-Man and Batman movies coming next year. Even a movie like Green Lantern, which was marketed as a half comedy (the kiss of death to super-hero movies) has made $113 million in North America so far. Even the flops bring in big money. Disney has nothing to worry about. But anyone listening to this no name’s advice does.
thanks, vasily. susquehanna equity research is a powerhouse; appreciate you crunching those numbers over there.
superhero/graphic novel/video game/board game movies aren’t going anywhere.
A commenter here made the point that the biggest issue with comic-book adaptations is that they generally have the same “emotional beats”, and they were right. Films like The Dark Knight that manage to be unpredictable are few and far between. No wonder audiences are jaded. Tickets cost a small fortune nowadays, and even commercials feature amazing CGI, so who wants to pay a premium for same-old same-old?
Really good point. Even as a huge fan, it gets very old when it all just becomes “hero’s journey” stuff. Although many of these properties often must contain a kernel of that to work, there are certainly secondary themes to focus on that can be relevant to the current zeitgiests. I think Green Lantern would have worked great had it gotten the hero stuff out of the way in the first 20 minutes and then focused on the corps and space. Would have given the audience something new and theme of “many people from many countries in this together” would have resonated with the global marketplace I think.
Karasyov is wrong. The timing of this report is suspect. Films based on comic books will continue to rake in profits so long as the material is strong. Good storytelling is required as in any genre. Disney’s purchase of Marvel makes sense for a company that needed to bolster their teen male base. The lucrative licensed merchandise prospects and ability to create immersive attractions for their theme parks made the deal all the more prudent. Expect Disney to recoup Big on their investment.
Didn’t Thor do extremely well? I think there is some truth to this, especially with Super Hero films. I think the high water marks for the traditional super hero film are going to be the Avengers film and the completion of the Bat Man trilogy. However, comic books movies aren’t going to go away. As the technology improves production costs will come down and the built in marketing is always there. Also comic books are still an amazing breeding ground for genre and other high concept ideas – so it might not be all Super Hero films, but you can look for a lot more break out hits from the comic world.
Well anyone could tell you that. After 2012, which have 4 movies with with all the biggest superhero characters (assuming Man of Steel is released that year), the genre will go downhill very fast. Nothing lasts forever.
Yeah nothing took off after Iron Man. You know, except for that other movie that came out just a couple months later and made almost DOUBLE the box office.
Frankly, this is Jeanne Dixon-level prognostication. Amrmchair quarterbacks have been saying these things for the past several years, and every year they are proved wrong. Karasyov really doesn’t have any solid facts to back up his predictions, and citing a lack of remaining top-tier properties while invoking Iron Man as the last example of such only points out the holes in his argument, as Iron Man was practically unheard of outside of comic book readers before the first film. It was the combination of good story, good direction, good marketing, and the stellar performance of charismatic star Robert Downey Jr. that made that movie a hit – not because people were clamoring to see Iron Man on the big screen. Green Lantern, a comic book character at the same level of public awareness as Iron Man was prior to its film release, failed because it did not have that same mix of excellence. That being said, there are thousands of comic book characters left that are comparable in quality to Iron Man, and their successful translation to screen depends upon the people involved in the production of these films. Comic book characters are ideas, some good and some bad, and we are in no more danger of running out of good comic book character ideas as we are any other film genre or subject matter.
Someone says this same thing every year. As long as the stories are good, the characters are well-acted, the films are well-directed and entertaining, they’ll be made.
People want to see good movies. They do not care if they are comic book films, comedy, drama, action etc…..
Comic book movies can live on if they are made well but if they hire Jason Friedberg Aaron Seltzer than they are done.
was the god-awful Green Floptern the final nail in the coffin???
Um, yeah, who saw this coming? The writing was on the walls.
Any working professional could have called this two years ago. Move on studios, audiences are hungry for an original storyline