Now that the Harry Potter series is done, it’s only natural that Wall Street would start to wonder: What’s the next movie franchise that will drive teens and adults to the box office in droves? And two analysts today think they have an answer. Lionsgate’s The Hunger Games, a four-movie series based on Suzanne Collins’ trilogy about two teens in a post-apocalyptic society struggling to survive a life-or-death contest. PiperJaffrey’s James Marsh raised his target price for Lionsgate shares to $12 from $10 based largely on his expectation that the films will “provide a material and identifiable catalyst” for the company. Cowen and Co’s Doug Creutz used similar language to project that Lionsgate shares will “outperform the market by at least 20% over the next 12 months.” That would be a welcome change for Lionsgate. Many investors soured on the company while billionaire Carl Icahn battled to take control and DVD sales began to collapse for the industry. Lionsgate’s shares have appreciated just 5% over the last 12 months while the overall market was up 20%. But the analysts say investors will turn the page as they begin to feast on news about Hunger Games. Marketing will begin late this year for the March 2012 release. Marsh says he expects it to become “the highest grossing film of all time at Lionsgate” with $150M in domestic box office sales. Consumers have bought 10M copies of the first book, which spent 99 weeks on the USA Today Best Seller List — and all three books continue to rank among the top 10. Lionsgate shares closed Monday at $7.17, up 1.6%.


if they do a good job adapting the books it’s a slam dunk. the story is great and works on a lot of levels. The casting so far has all seemed spot on too.
Except that they are not doing a good job adapting the books from a purist perspective. Madge won’t be in the movie, Most of the district 12 people including the actress playing katniss don’t look as though they really are in the verge of starvition. Most of the cast looks old and the book was about kids fighting to death. They cast Wes Bentley and Donald sutherland for roles that shouldn’t have a lot of screen time if they were really trying to be true to the books. The tree leads physical appearances don’t match the ones described in the book. They also added Lenny kravitz as cinna and they changed the whole scene with the burnt bread in a way that Jennifer Lawrence and Josh hutcherson will be the ones in that scene instead of 11 year old children. I hope all this changes serve a bigger purpose in terms of story telling because they seem major changes to what made the book such a popular reading.
Except they are not being faithful to the book.No Madge,more seneca crane and more snow than in the book, they are not filming katniss perspective no ashy blond peeta, no starving katniss, a gale that looks as though he had just visited the stylist, now we know that the boy with the bread scene won’t have 11 year old kids playing young katniss and young peeta. I knew that the movie wouldn’t follow every line of the book but they could’ve done better with the script. I think the movie won’t be bad just different.
I will always caution people to never assume y-movie will be the next x-movie.
Well said.
Can’t wait for Hunger Games, but I hope they don’t screw it up!
Agreed…its a dicey prospect to keep some of the themes and scenes PG-13. You have a huge fan base (me included) that is going to want to see the most genuine incarnation of the book possible. To me, that’s an R rated version…which could limit its BO potential (the whole kids forced to kill other kids in order to stay alive themselves thing).
If they sugar coat it there could be backlash from fans of the book, potentially alienating the core base. the casting makes me hopeful.
I agree with you on all points. Fortunately for Hunger Games, the MPAA doesn’t seem to be as strict about violence as they are about sex and language.
I think they can still deliver a very loyal adaptation if they choose too. Like you, I hope they don’t sugar coat it, because the violence is what sets the stage for the atmosphere of rebellion. The mood and tone of the film will suffer greatly if they tone it down too much for the PG-13 rating.
Well I think that the PG-13 rating is good because the book is basically for young adults AKA teenagers and it already has a solid fan base which will be the audience they will try to target, so a rated R movie is harder for a teen to watch you know since is for ages 17 and up, so I think is great that they’ll try to keep everything PG-13 rated
This is a lame PR play. Let the movie speak for itself and stop trying to tell us it’s the next Twilight. The last company to use this strategy was New Line telling everyone that Golden Compass was the next Lord of the Rings.
Where, pray tell, does this article even mention Twilight?? The only reference to a previous franchise is Harry Potter, and that is the more appropriate comparison, as Twilight is just emotional porn for girls.
Why don’t you run back over to E! Online and post your incessant Twilight praise over there, because your imagined rivalry between Hunger Games and Twilight is lost on people that visit this site.
Everybody who says this is the the next twilight needs to shutup.First of all bella isn’t a heroine she whines too much and she is pathetic. Katniss on the other hand is strong independent and mature for her age fierce but caring at the same time.just stop comparing it to twilight.
GO TEAM KATNISS!!!!
I hope they don’t screw it up.
already iffy on some casting choices but at least Katniss was a good choice.
just hope they are true to it being a more teen friendly Battle Royale (and watch Battle Royale as reference) but don’t go to far and make it cheesy and lame.
It will never be rated R, it’s a teen series! The book isn’t as gruesome as you’re trying to make it. I don’t need to see a spear going through a kid’s neck to understand the theme of the games. An r-rating would drive away the core audience, which is mostly under 17. Lionsgate is making a teen action movie, not a remake of 300.
Wow. Sounds like this is going to be a monster!! Whoever exec is that found the series must be soooo lucky! I just read the first and wow, incredible.
Yeah. I heard LG laid her off. Can’t have too much talent, the company might actually make money.
I tried really hard to option the first book immediately after publishing in 2008, but Nina Jacobsen had optioned the first (and sequels) before it was even published, very savvy move.
I wish you had won. I think that for books this great a bigger more experienced studio would have been better. This is the first time Lionsgate is involved in this kind of projects. If Suzanne had waited enough before selling the rights of her book I bet you that the same people that made Harry Potter so successful would have been interested in buying the project. They were so clever in casting people with the resemblance to the characters in the book and that also had acting shops and they were so careful to respect the book source that no franchise has been able to top that.
Lionsgate was extremely lucky and I hope they can do the book justice. So far some of their choices have made the fanbase very nervous about the movie. But I’m positive that the movie will be a blockbuster and will have critical claim since the story is so endearing.
Have you been to any of the Hunger Games fansites? It is a laugh riot. Those teen girls are FURIOUS at how ugly are all the males cast in this movie. Hahaha. They also keep commenting on how Jen Lawrence is too fat to be playing a starving girl. LOL. But the universal dumping on the male cast was a real eye-opener for me.
I read comments in HG sites and as far as I can tell the ones who are more skeptical about the cast are not the teens. The adults are the ones who are questioning what is happening with the movies. Adults complains and comments about the movie go beyond the attractiveness of the three leads. Those comments are more based on informed opinions, a deep knowledge of the trilogy and a critical mind. A lot of the adults that post in THG sites have read much more (not only YA adult books) and are better informed in the process of filmaking than the average teenager. And those are the people who don’t seem conviced that the direction the movie is taking is the best.
Why does EVERY book series have to now squeeze two movies out of the last book? It is a ridiculously cynical trend. The hunger games books can all be quite easily done as a movie each. The plot is not that dense. We don’t need them stretched out into an extra movie.
I tried reading the books to see what the phenomenon was about, but I found the writing to be very poor and clunky. Could someone explain to me why these books are such a sensation?
The males they cast were horrible choices. a 5’4″ actor, although talented at playing dead pan, is brown hair and brown eyes, and is suppose to play a “natural dirty blonde” super bright blue eyed ‘cute’ Peeta Mellark. Very wrong choice in my opinion. For Gale, they cast a Blond, very bright blue eyed 6’4″ person to play a lean muscley dark hair gray eyes manly hunter. Gary Ross IMO is a feel good director, and not right for the violence in this. Is it too late for a recast????
Didn’t analysts also over-value Kick-Ass? Methinks Hunger Games will be in the same boat. Unlike Potter and Twilight, HG’s got too many actors to keep track of; and it’s also got darker material, to boot.
I can’t wait for this film!!…the cast is fantastic. I just watched Winter’s Bone recently and the casting of Jennifer Lawrence as Katniss is perfect, she’s a marvelous actress. Josh Hutcherson is actually pretty close to what I imagined Peeta looking like so I’m fine with him as well. T Bone Burnett is doing the music (along with Danny Elfman) so that’s a plus as well.
Could you sound any more like a studio shill? No? OK then.
i can’t see what was so marvelous with jennifer lawrence in winter’s bone, unless you consider it marvelous that she barely has any facial expression and that her eyes are as blank as a zombie’s stare. and i never imagined peeta to have a huge jaw like josh hutcherson.
Why r there always so many haters? The Twilight saga, Harry Potter, The Hunger Games, …..& tons of y & or teen books soon 2 turn movies r all amazing stories. Each with a different storyline..& thanks 4 that, its what makes them entertaining. I love them all!
Gut reaction, NO!
But I totally admit, I am not even an amateur in media box office trends, you got to have access to the raw data over long periods of time, and be in the know, with a serious team, even then, some “magic,” still applies.
I think people are now fully hungry for content quality, and not just an equals sign, between art and society.
The script is one of the best screenplays I’ve ever read, adaptation or otherwise. If they just keep everything on track and don’t fiddle too much, it will be a certain winner.
Three teens, don’t leave out Gale… I do NOT like the casting. The Hunger Games Movie better be more true to it’s book than Harry Potter and The Deathly Hollows Pt.2 or I will have to be escorted out of the movie theater.
many people don’t like the casting too. before rumors started going round of who was going to be cast, jennifer lawrence and josh hutcherson were non-existent in the hunger games world. the most popular fan choices were kaya scodelario and hunter parrish. then when rumors started going about jennifer and josh being chosen, some hollywood a$$-kissers started liking them too.
I’m tired of all the comparisons (especially the Twilight connections). Can’t a movie just stand out on its own? If you want to compare it to something, try Harry Potter.
Lionsgate has their work cut out for them. Has anybody seen the Mainstay Productions videos? They have done an amazing job. Google them or look them up on YouTube. I honestly think that Danielle Chuchran, who played Katniss in the Mainstay videos, should’ve been cast.
The HP series really got butchered when they were made into movies. I fear that may happen with the HG trilogy. I was encouraged to hear that Collins herself is involved with the screenplay and director, but then they reported that they r beefing up the love triangle aspect. Every little scene of the love-storyline is so delicious BECAUSE it doesn’t over saturate the story, which is so epic. But Hollywood has to beat us over the head with the love aspect. (Oops I noticed a typo and corrected it- but if I accidentally posted this twice I apologize.)
I think the movie will be awesome but sill not sure about the people they cast but true JL is too fat and too pretty to be katniss
jennifer lawrence? too pretty? katniss wasn’t supposed to be a dog, peeta once said that she has no idea of the effect she has on others. but jennifer lawrence is totally average-looking. i watched winter’s bone and unlike most people i wasn’t impressed with her at all. how could i when she’s just all blank-eyed and expressionless? honestly, i see much prettier girls at malls or in the streets with no make up on
Why would they have a March release if it’s planned to be the next Twilight/Harry Potter? Weird time for a movie launch…
omg…this movie needs to be rated R! the book has ndity and violence….hellooooo?!?!?!? some children do NOT need to see this movie…if the violence and other things are taken away…then the movie wont present the real meaning it is spposed to. its really dmb this movie will be or will possibly be pg-13
NOTHING WILL TOP HARRY POTTER. NOTHING WILL BE BETTER THAN HARRY POTTER BESIDES LORD OF THE RINGS AND STAR WARS. OKAY?