SATURDAY PM: This is shaping up as 2011′s lousiest box office weekend in North America with only $70M total grosses. Yes, even worse than Hurricane Irene’s. A lot of surprises in this weekend’s numbers and a fuller analysis is coming. But no surprise which new North American movie is No. 1:
1. With $8M Friday and +20% for $9.7M Saturday, it’s a $24M weekend for Warner Bros’ Contagion playing in 42% more theaters — 3,222 — than its nearest newcomer. This Participant Media-backed disease movie looked like yet another yikes-you’re-all-going-to-die formula pic. But I’m surprised it didn’t generate more appeal what with Oscar-winning Steven Soderbergh directing 6 Academy Award winners or nominees: Matt Damon, Kate Winslet, Marion Cotillard, Gwyneth Paltrow, Jude Law, and Laurence Fishburne. (Readers are urging me to include Oscar-honored John Hawke and Elliott Gould as well…) That added oomph to credited screenplay writer Scott Burns’ material. “Yes, it was important to be provocative and to scare people,” a Warner Bros exec tells me about the $60M-budget pic. “But both the print and trailer and TV campaign present a more well-rounded view of the mystery. We did sell the visceral experience — a smart and thrilling look at a killer virus, the science behind it, and the aftermath.” Warner Bros took the film to Venice to solid reviews and conducted an aggressive consumer campaign. Besides, adult movies are working at the box office.
2. Entering its 5th weekend in release, DreamWorks/Disney’s hit dramedy The Help which is also backed by Participant Media made $2.7M Friday and $4M Saturday going to $9.4M from 2,935 locations for the weekend. It’s estimated new cume of $137.8M by Monday.
3. This seemingly anticipated mixed martial arts drama Warrior starring Tom Hardy (Bane in the next Batman) and Joel Edgerton was only released for 1,869 runs. It opened with $1.8M Friday and $2.1M Saturday for what was just a dismal $4.8M weekend. Another very disappointing opening for Lionsgate which was very high on this actioner. Did last weekend’s sneaks let some wannasee steam escape? Will this hurt Hardy whom Hollywood execs consider a hot soon-to-be-star?
4. Focus Features’ adult holdover The Debt earned $1.4M Friday (-45% from a week ago) from 1,874 theaters and a projected $4.5M weekend for an estimated $21.6M cume by Monday.
5. Sony Pictures’ holdover Colombiana made $1.1M Friday and $1.9M Saturday from 2,354 runs for a $4M weekend and $29.8M cume.
But I have it on good authority that Sony execs were hiding out at the Toronto Film Festival (where better-than-expected Moneyball officially premiered Friday night) rather than get tagged by its Columbia Pictures’ R-rated Bucky Larson: Born To Be A Star which had one of the most annoying TV ad campaigns I’ve ever been assaulted by. Mercifully, its box office take was miniscule: $540K Friday and $570K Saturday for only a $1.2M weekend. That wasn’t even enough to make it into the Top 10 much less Sony’s hoped-for $4M. Fortunately the budget is purportedly just $10M. Usually Adam Sandler’s Happy Madison production banner gives Sony box office gold: stupid pics popular with audiences. But this was fool’s gold.
Before I give you the rest of the Top 10, you should know that Kevin Hart’s Laugh At My Pain was No. 10 Friday despite Hartbeat Productions and Codeblack Entertainment releasing it into only 99 theaters. It opened to $758K Friday and an estimated weekend of $2M. But it may ultimately be beaten by The Weinstein Co’s Spy Kids 4D. (I’ll know Sunday AM.) Hart’s fans turned out for this profanity-filled film version of his recent stand-up tour. It offers less than an hour of Hart onstage but also includes such bonus footage as Hart touring his old neighborhood in Philadelphia and faking a bank heist. Directed by Leslie Small, this 1-hour, 28-minute pic and its entry into the Top 10 now establishes Hart as a bonafide star beyond just his YouTube videos which have drawn tens of millions of views. Look for the major studios to take notice.
6. Rise Of the Planet Of The Apes (Fox) Week 6 [2,887 Theaters]
Friday $1.1M, Saturday $1.8M, Weekend $4M, Estimated Cume $168M
7. Shark Night 3D (Relativity) Week 2 [2,848 Theaters]
Friday $1M, Saturday $1.6M, Weekend $3.6M, Estimated Cume $14.9M
8. Apollo 18 (Dimension/The Weinstein Co) Week 2 [3,330 Theaters]
Friday $875K, Saturday $1.4M, Weekend $3M, Estimated Cume $15.1M
9. Our Idiot Brother (The Weinstein Co) Week 3 [2,396 Theaters]
Friday $835K, Saturday $1.1M, Weekend $3M, Estimated Cume $21.7M
10. Laugh At My Pain (Hartbeat Prods/Codeblack Ent) NEW [99 Theaters]
Friday $758K, Estimated Weekend $2M
Editor-in-Chief Nikki Finke - tip her here.


To say Bucky Larson’s ad were annoying is an understatement. Who IS that annoying douche in the ads, some Adam Sandler suckup?
Not only do that ads make me not want to see the movie, it makes me want to drive to the few theaters it is playing and burn them to the ground. (At night, after they’re closed, of course!)
I don’t think there’s a court in this country that would convict me.
What idiot decided to release a male driven testosterone film (a great one at that) on the first NFL weekend of the year?! This is why the bo is worse than Irene. Doesn’t take a genius to see that. Just look at the top ten tv programs come Monday morning and you’ll see you do t compete with the NFL. Or football is general. While weekends till thanksgiving are a virtual wash.
Lionsgate (so many issues there) should have put Tyler Perry in an octagon.
I am baffled that anyone had high expectations for Warrior. It’s a b-movie plot with a b-movie poster. Neither star is a star yet, regardless of insiders’ predictions for their careers. This thing was cheese, and now it’s toast.
THANK YOU! Total b-movie shmaltz. And the cool kids lap it up.
The poster is very cheesy “one fights for country, one fights for family”. If Lifetime Movie Network had a guy network they would promote movies with lines like that. Even all of the positive reviews make it sound kind of cheesy. I know they are hoping for oscar nods, but it seems strange to have such a silly poster if you want to be seen as an Oscar caliber film.
Warrior was a really good movie. Sux that Lionsgate can’t market and open this!
“Warrior” will have legs, but I wonder why anyone thought it was a good idea to release a guy skewing movie like this the second week of football season? Lions Gate would have been a lot better off with a holiday release if they plan on any campaigning here or, even better, a post-Super Bowl release complete with during-the-game advertising. Despite packed theatres on Labor Day earlier in the week, no one in SEC and PAC-12 states go to the movies the Friday and Saturday of a game weekend.
With an opening this low, theaters will be dumping Warrior before word of mouth can spread. There will be a good afterlife on DVD however.
Bucky Larson did have an annoying ad campaign. When I saw it, I said what morons would want to see this. I see it wasn’t many.
It’s a tough weekend for “Warrior” to open, with big college football games going well into Saturday night and the NFL opening Sunday. That’s got to have affected the target audience.
Saw Warrior yesterday as well! It’s fantastic. Like a chick flick for guys. Traits manipulative and formulaic but what a formula! I mean who doesn’t like Rocky?
What makes it great is the acting… Everyone is perfect. Nolte should win the Oscar!
I loved this movie… Say what you will about underdog sport movies… Put great actors on screen with real problems (manipulative or not) the formula here WORKS.
I hope word of mouth spreads and Warrior has legs. I, for one, am going again. It’s been a while since I actually cheered in a movie!
And ‘no’ I’m not a plant or an employee of Lionsgate, I just really liked this movie! A lot!
CONTAGION was great. I have to say the fall movie season looks very promising (in just the next month: Contagion, Drive, The Ides of March, Take Shelter, Moneyball), which is refreshing after such a lackluster summer of the tired same ol, same ol. Time to bring on the real movies.
WHATS UP WITH THE
“WARRIOR” PRAISE
AND “CONTAGION” BASHING?
AGENTS – MANAGERS – STUDIO HEAD POSTERS:
“CONTAGION” WAS INCREDIBLY WELL-DONE
“WARRIOR” MAY BE AS WELL – BUT THERE’S NO INTEREST IN IT AND DOES NOT BENEFIT FROM A BIG SCREEN VIEWING
REAL. PEOPLE. LIKED. CONTAGION.
GET OVER IT – STOP SELLING ONLINE PUNKS.
Caps lock party! I just have to correct you on one thing here. Warrior is a completely satisfying theater experience. It’s a rarity these days to genuinely clap and cheer with an audience. When that happens, as it did when I saw Warrior, that wonderful thing goes off in your head where you say “Oh yea. THAT’S why I go to the movies!”
Soderbergh deserved a hit on some level, albeit a slim hit. Contagion is so enjoyable on so many levels and is 100% a Steven Soderbergh film. From the titles to the establishing shots, it’s his style. his film. Period.
Perhaps with the storms in the eastern US, audience weren’t rushing out to see this bleak film just yet.
With that said, many intelligent folks who knock Soderbergh’s films often forget the shelf life of a Soderbergh movie. All of his films, are relevant and play well today. From Sex, Lies….to Ocean’s 13, everything works, holds up, and is always interesting/entertaining.
In 5 yrs you’ll be watching tv on a couch and a film like Contagion will come on HBO and you’ll watch it and enjoy it. More so than most of other thrillers from 2011. And you’ll realize that that film will still be more relevant that years cerebral thriller.
Holy crap. Laugh At My Pain opens to $2M on only 99 screens? Don’t know what they spent on P&A, but guessing it was next to nothing. Amazing.
Warrior was so good. But one thing Hollywood is going to realize after this is that MMA fans are into reality, not fantasy. At its core, MMA is about making the most realistic combat possible. Fans would rather see real fights than depictions of fights and it’s reflective of every MMA movie released. Still, it was a fantastic film and Gavin O’Conner’s best work to date.
I wouldn’t be gnashing my teeth at the fate of WARRIOR. It’s a terrific movie (in spite of the ludicrious concept that two brothers end up the MMA fight of a lifetime for five million bucks…) that will get good word or mouth and continue to play slow but sure here in North America, it will pick up nominations for Nolte at the end of the year and maybe a few others, and will make a gazilion dollars overseas.
It should have had a better opening weekend. That can be blamed on the marketing team. If you can’t sell a good fight movie…you got a problem. I would have helped if the movie had one real,
true marquee name. Hardy is a picture or two away from that. I also think that as MMA fighting becomes more mainstream which it will over the next few years if FOX has anything to say about it, you’re going to see more movies set in the world of MMA fighting because it’s visceral and exciting.
Also, opening this the weekend football starts…dumb, dumb, dumb.
But again, in four weeks, reexamine the take of this movie. It’ll do fine here and collect big $$$ from the worldwide market. And hopefully the Lionsgate marketing team will either have learned something or moved on to work at the Nike store in the Grove.
Football has been very popular for a long time, but football movies aren’t especially popular. Most boxing movies haven’t done well. I don’t see why you’d expect MMA movies to do any better. Sports movies that do well are the ones that can interest people who don’t care that much about the sport. Sports fans can watch non fictional sports on TV or in person. They need a reason to go watch fictionalized versions at the theater.
Warrior is an amazing movie and should be an awards contender. the performances are all incredible and the movie is truly well crafted…go Gavin O’Connor!
Nikki–PLEASE do an autopsy on WARRIOR. Everyone I know who saw it went crazy for it, but 6 million? WTF? Bad marketing? MMA? What?
Sammy is absolutely right, even if it comes off a little homophobic. Warrior had a great, focused, action oriented premise that SHOULD have focused on it’s core quadrant – young males.
Instead, thinking they have an award film on their hands, LG tries to make a broad play. Bad Move. Make a fight driven film, market it as a fight film and build the word of mouth from there. The studios want every movie to be all things to everyone and that means alienating audiences if it doesn’t work.
That said, I’m going to see the film tonight based solely on WOM so maybe it will hold…
RE: CONTAGION
Saw it. It was a movie that “could” have scared every single person in the theater, instead it was a few cheap shocks holding hands with some poor storytelling.
Soderbergh, bless him, doesn’t know how to build emotion. (I love The Limey but again, his movies are cold) Contagion is a perfect expression of that icy feel. It’s big in scope and small on emotional resonance.
Lionsgate marketing is the worst in the business. WARRIOR is fantastic. It’s THE WRESTLER or ROCKY. The ads made it look like a Red Bull promotion. They did the same thing with KICKASS — they threw away all the best parts and marketed it as a guy in his pajamas getting his ass kicked in an alley. As we see time and time again, when it comes to opening weekend marketing is EVERYTHING — there is no word of mouth yet. Brilliant marketing made the crapfest that was BATTLE LA look like BRAVEHEART with Aliens, and look at the box. Lionsgate marketing department should just start apologizing in advance to filmmakers, they really cost Gavin OC big on this one
“Warrior” is worth seeing; thought it weak in its dependence on cross cut dialogue scenes but cheered its straight up approach to current political realities. Hardy’s Tommy is metaphorical Blind Rage, and he does it very well.
Contagion was okay – not a bad film but plays like an HBO movie that should have been a mini-series.
There’s not enough screen time for the cast and the execution lacks emotion – you end up not really caring about anyone. Plus the ending is totally flat.
I don’t understand the people who are claiming that anyone here who liked “Warrior” is a plant or a studio stooge or whatever. That’s just denial.
I saw “Warrior” last night, and yes, the story is predictable, but I loved this film. Terrific acting, a script that stayed clear of melodrama, beautiful direction cinematography editing and music…what they hell is up with you haters?
My prediction; word-of-mouth will grow this film.
The newspaper ad looks like a guy pissing at a urinal.
I’m staying out of the theaters this weekend.
I saw the trailer for ‘Contagion’ and I didn’t find it compelling. The entertainment biz has this strange love affair with out-of-control killer diseases, but we’ve seen this all before. And it’s usually is a bore.
As for ‘Warrior,’ it uses my least favorite template for a movie trailer: the summary. A trailer that summarizes the movie up to the last ten minutes won’t fill seats in the theater. So why sit through the entire running time? To find out who wins a movie fight? Why bother?
I saw the Contagion poster and felt the same way.
Did they really think showing closeups of actors on the phone would get people into theatres?
Kevin Hart is very funny, easily one of the top stand-ups in the country. Hollywood executives don’t tend to understand comedy though; films like “Bucky Larson” are the norm for them. Maybe if more intelligent people had power in Hollywood there would be some better comedies, all we have now are disasters like the last Anziz Ansari movie, dumb frat-guy comedies like the Hangover or yet another awful Adam Sandler film.