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FRIDAY 3PM: Very early numbers show Disney’s Lion King 3D roaring back to #1 with $15M weekend in 2,330 theaters; Warner Bros’ holdover Contagion #2 with $12M in 3,222 theaters, FilmDistrict’s Drive #3 with $11M from 2,886 theaters, Sony/Screen Gem’s Straw Dogs #4 with $8M from 2,408 theaters, and The Weinstein Co’s I Don’t Know How She Does It with $7.5M from 2,476 theaters.
For more estimates listed by title, see box office results here...
Editor-in-Chief Nikki Finke - tip her here.
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Bummer. I wanted “Drive” to open huge. Great reviews. One of my most anticipated movies of the year (hard to restrain myself from going and seeing it opening day, but I hate the morons who text/talk in theater). Good movies make too little b.o. far too often.
We already saw “Drive” years ago, when it was called “The Transporter.”
You obviously didn’t see Drive…it is nothing like The Transporter, not even in the slightest. You should go see a movie before you make comments about it.
Drive is nothing like Transporter. Expect it to over perform and Lion King to under. Contagion hasn’t done great when you consider the cast and PG-13 rating. Drive is a hard R with lots of violence. FD will easily turn a profit. Go Ryan Gosling.
Bravo. That was one of the most ridiculous posts ever.
it’s a remake of “thief”(by michael mann)
seems to have a little of “The Driver” (1978, with Ryan O’Neal) in its DNA too.
No it’s not. Not even close. I don’t know where people come up with this crap. There are some plot similarities at only the most basic level. As does Taxi Driver. Nothing of substance is the same. You might as well call every movie that come out from here on a remake of something else, if we adhere to your standards.
Drive seems more like a film that’ll have some staying power rather than the typical one-and-done movies you get this time of year.
I saw DRIVE earlier today and I was shocked, both at how good it is (it’s really, REALLY good) and at how violent it is.
Probably one of the most brutally violent films I’ve ever seen.
It makes the violence in Reservoir Dogs look like a scratch on the playground. Someone should have told Refn to turn it down a notch, because I can’t in good conscience recommend this to family members as they might disown me if I did.
Will be interesting to see how mainstream audiences react to it. Very risky.
I wish Refn had gotten the Die Hard 5 assignment. THAT would have been a badass DieHard…
Drive is a great movie. It’s so good, in fact, people won’t recognize and appreciate how good it is until it’s long-gone from the movie theatres.
It reminds me of Fight Club in that way. When FC debuted in Sept. 1999 it was a major disappointment in America. It made 11 million opening weekend and 6 million the following. Now, any male under the age of 35, go into his home and you will find Fight Club on the DVD shelf. It’s a classic.
Drive will be a classic. You just don’t know it yet.
Drive might have done better had they actually opened it wide. It didn’t even come to my local theater. Instead they held over shit like Apollo 18 and the Maid.
Is it going to expand next week? I really want to see it.
I blame the marketing. It took them months to put out a standard trailer, and many of the on-air spots go for the artsy/cool angle instead of something with more mass appeal.
@The Whiz, I don’t even go to movie theatres anymore because of all the talking/texting. (And I used to go 2-3 times a week!)
But I LOVE a good movie, I just have to wait until I can queue them up on Netflix or until they come out on Blu-Ray.
Why don’t theaters ban texting/talking? Nobody pays $12 to go listen to some morons. People should leave and demand their money back from any theater that allows it.
How do you enforce it? Call the cops every time someone’s on the phone? Call the 17 year-old ticket taker to be the cop?
It’s an unresolvable problem.
You wanted Drive to open huge but you aren’t going this weekend? You and those who share yours sentiments are why it didn’t open well.
I saw it today and it was artsy-fartsy, self-indulgent crap, like a Baz Luhrmann/Joe Wright take on a low budget early Tarantino script. It’s a complete mess with only one or two decent moments. I can’t believe how many people like this film. And the audience I saw it with were howling with laughter at the most inappropriately violent scenes like a bunch of mentally-deficient video game-playing assholes.
Are you referring to that elevator scene? The crowd I saw it with also laughed, but I couldn’t tell if they actually thought it was funny, or were laughing as a reflex because it was so ridiculously brutal.
You summed up my exact thoughts too. And what’s the deal with Ryan Gosling? He’s about as threatening as Macauley Culkin. Where are the real movie men, like Clint Eastwood or Steve McQueen? All we get now are these soft spoken child-men like Gosling and Justin Timberlake.
Sorry about that laughter. We were gripped by the scene – as Gosling stomp, stomped, stomped on the guy’s head, like he was killing a monster spider – then someone said, “Got ‘em.”
Thank you! I do not get the critical love for this movie. It has a great cast, and there is a good movie in there, but this isn’t it.
Totally agree.
Amazing opening scene and some good moments along the way – but so self indulgent and in love with its own style.
Plus it’s ponderously slow. The romance with Carey Mulligan is so tedious culminating in that ridiculous scene where Carey and Ryan just look at each other for almost a minute and barely speak a word. You could feel the audiences restlessness…
” I Don’t Know How She Does It” was so cheaply made that it will turn a profit anyways.
Surprised Drive didn’t start with a stronger tally but word of mouth hasn’t exploded yet. This is the movie of a generation.
Word of mouth won’t work for a movie like this. The average Joe will expect non-stop action, and when he finds out that the movie doesn’t offer that, he will spread the word that the movie is slow, boring, artsy, etc. That’s just how it is.
That’s what happened with “The American.” It got good reviews (although not as good of reviews as “Drive” received). It was a good movie. Everyone hated it because it was slow, European. They all expected a Bourne movie and were disappointed. Ugh.
How can you compare The American to Drive? One came out on a holiday weekend and earned an F at CinemaScore with a 66% rating on RT, one has a 93% fresh rating on RT. It’s apples to oranges. Find a better comparison.
THE AMERICAN was a good movie?
The American was one of the worst films I’ve ever seen. And I love European films. You can’t compare the two.
To quote Jules from Pulp Fiction, “It ain’t even the same fuckin’ sport.”
Drive won’t be around in three weeks. I just talked to two people who went opening day and they were decidedly underwhelmed. Including a guy who loved the Pusher trilogy. The problem is every fanboy on the planet has been hyping a film they hadn’t seen and now people are saying “it isn’t that great” – less hype would helped the flick a lot more than the fanboy panting all over the web that took place. It never had a chance.
The movie earned a C- Cinemascore. That’s great that critics love it, and I’ll probably see it sometime in theaters, but people should know what connects with mainstream audiences.
Ryan Gosling officially can’t open a movie….fading star
He is a supporting character actor, not a movie star. The Hollywood machine is trying to change him into something he is not, and the audience isn’t buying. The world is perfectly happy to see Gosling as a supporting player, but they aren’t buying him as a central star. He’s in the same boat as Michael Shannon.
MICHAEL SHANNON?!?!?!
Drive is good as a movie, it was even better for the LA economy:
http://filmworksla.wordpress.com/2011/09/16/drive-helping-put-los-angeles-back-on-screen-local-economy-back-on-feet/
Straw dogs is another Clint Culpepper sit ker
Sarah Jessica Parker must be stopped. Please.
If those projections are close, Drive is opening where FD expected it to. Not more, not less.
It’ll lock them into almost certain profitability and give them at least a chance for WOM/critical buzz to boost it to being more.
Oh, please. 1. People have been predicting huge things for Drive for months. If it stays at 11 mil for the weekend (and let’s face it – Deadline’s Friday numbers are often high) it will make about 3800 a screen on opening weekend. It costs between 2500 and 3000 just to pay for prints and posters at each theater to open a film. They also did all kinds of TV spots including a second spot that came out this week. No way this film makes it’s money back. You can believe it will but that don’t make it so.
One thing I like about this site is they actually talk about the fact that these flicks lose money even if the people commenting refuse to understand it. Check the Kagen numbers Nikki runs every month if you don’t believe me.
The film had a production budget of about $12.5M; with ad, dom *and* int, it was about $30M, with some fringe. It may not end up being a huge one, but this will end up a profit for FD, all told, barring disaster.
This isn’t me “not understanding”; this is me knowing more than you.
No way they did that many TV buys AND print costs for 17.5 – you can say you know more but that’s just ridiculous on it’s face. Print costs alone on 2800 screens would eat up half of that total.
Nice to see that someone on here actually understands the true facts behind the numbers. Good post!
As one of those people who doesn’t always understand the “true” facts behind the numbers, would you mind expanding on what you are saying?
What are “prints”? Is there a decent rule-of-thumb for calculating the true cost of a film?
Each screen needs a film print to show. There are some theaters that use a digital download format but that supposed “revolution” never really took hold. So most screens need a print, they cost money to make, I don’t know the current cost but twenty years ago they cost about 1700-1800 a piece and the price of most things have gone up. There is also the cost of shipping those prints, usually Fed-Ex. Just go to a Fed-ex web-site and look at the cost to send something that weighs about forty+ pounds and multiply by two because there are two of them. Then there is the cost of sending the poster, making the poster, etc. When you get that cost multiply by 2800. Although sometimes a theater will have a film on more than one screen so the number could easily be higher.
Fact is most people on here say “it grossed 10 mil the first weekend and it only cost 13 mil so it already has most of it’s money back”. Problem is that the film companies only get about 55% of the BO gross these days and there are a lot more costs than the production budget. Of course anybody who has ever owned a business knows that. The fact is for a film like Drive most of the costs will come in publicity and distribution costs. Why some film fans continue to think differently is just wishful thinking because they root for their films like sports fans.
Why does this matter? Well, this is an industry site and movies should be at least trying to make money. That’s what keeps people working.
Drive is exactly what it was like watching Boogie Nights and Pulp Fiction for the first time. Nicolas Refn is now in the master class of Hollywood directors. I expect the movie to surge to $25 million this weekend once guys hear it’s not a romance starring Gosling.
Drive?
I haven’t seen it yet, but I am amazed that the B.O Prognosticators didn’t forsee the success of LION KING 3D. I knew it would be a success and open very well. Look at it’s audience. Something the whole family can see and enjoy together… The source material is OUTSTANDING… because it’s a hit to begin with. Disney doesn’t take any prisoners when it comes to this stuff. Also, there’s a world of young kids who haven’t experienced LION KING in the Theater, the way it was meant to be seen and the addition of 3D turns it into the kind of MASS AUDIENCE enjoyment a movie needs. You ccan’t get that same experience on the small screen. If I were helping to run and develop films for the Mouse House… I would examine their other classics for possible 3D re-release with newly re-mixed digital sound… FANTASIA anyone….. The LONE RANGER may or may not ride again… (though I’d still like to see it.) Why? I actually LOVE Movies…
Wow, I was totally surprised people went to see LION KING. I can’t remember the last time a reissue made any money, and people certainly didn’t go to see the 3-D versions of TOY STORY 1 and 2 (I know, I was there, along with six others in the whole opening night show). What made the difference with LION KING?
You obviously don’t know the weight of popularity of Lion King. It is in the Top 40 grossing movies of ALL time. It’s the HIGHEST grossing 2D movie of ALL time in the US. The very franchise you mentioned – Toy Story – played a Lion King song in it’s movie. If I am not mistaken, it’s one of the most translated movies in the world. It’s accolades and accomplishments are far more reaching than you realize. It’s like the Titanic, Avatar, The Dark Knight, LoTR, etc. of it’s genre, basically. It’s always going to make money. No matter what timeframe or generation it is released in.
How is it the highest grossing 2D movie of all time in the US? There are at least 17 others ahead of it.
It is the highest grossing 2d ANIMATED film. Keyword, “animated.”
Shrek 2 is highest grossing 2D animated movie in the US, Finding Nemo also made more than The Lion King..
Shrek 2 was CGI.
And adjusting for inflation SNOW WHITE AND THE SEVEN DWARFS is the highest grossing hand-drawn animated film as well as #10 on the highest grossing films of all time, period. SNOW WHITE was at one time the highest grossing movie ever made (until Gone With the Wind).
“Shrek 2″, “Nemo” and all those others technically aren’t 2D films. They are referred to as CGI – 3 dimensional objects, not 2D drawn.
The Toy Story/Toy Story 2 release did pretty well, something like $13 million on its first weekend. Considering that it was a double feature and limited the number of show times per theater, that’s pretty good.
Well, think about who saw this movie in theaters when they were a kid—it’s young adults in their mid to late twenties. Now the economy’s tanking, they can’t find jobs. While the critics might not know it, for my generation, The Lion King is head and shoulders above the rest of the Disney Renaissance films. Who wouldn’t want to relive 90 mins of their childhood back when movies told them there would be a place in the world for them when they got older, a place in the cirrrcclllllleeeeee—CIR-CLE-OF—llllllllllllifffee. *boom*
Please. Let the original scripts in.
Wow. Artsy fartsy? What is this, middle America here? Is this Peter Griffin saying he likes “The Money Pit”? Let me guess, you’re a fan of The Fast and the Furious franchise. Let’s make a few things clear here. DRIVE is a f*cking film. Not a commercial megaplex product placement corporate tested movie of the weekend. DRIVE is an excellent film. It’s excellent filmmaking. It’s gets an ‘A’. It’s meticulously planned and directed, the chemistry between Gosling and Mulligan is so good it doesn’t even look like acting, you believe these two are falling for each other. The violence is brutal, shocking and serves a purpose. The music is retro, unconventional but above all, cool. So much of this movie is just flat out cool. Ryan Gosling is a movie star with this film. Fact. I can’t remember the last time I wanted to be someone I was watching on screen. Oh yea, it was Daniel Craig when I first saw Casino Royale. Yea yea maybe he isn’t as bankable as Brad Pitt. Whatever. It’s charisma, charm and talent. That goes a long way. There are stretches of silence with two characters just staring at each other and you’d think it be boring but it isn’t. There is an electricity that is present that is only there because of talented actors and a confident director. He knows just when to cut. This isn’t a bullsh*t action flick. This is a damn good film. It will last.
“The violence is brutal, shocking and serves a purpose.” – maybe part of that purpose is to make it a niche film. I think you’ll find that most women are against brutal violence. How many women do you know who watch MMA? That means this is not a movie for women, and is not a date movie, and is not a movie for kids, and is not a movie for older men who know that ‘getaway driver for hire’ does not exist in the real world. “Drive” is a niche film.
Yes, but all the violence Gosling’s character commits is for the girl. He’s doing it for the girl and her kid. That’s rather romantic. And before the film does get violent, the courting and wooing of the two is very strong, very romantic and can definitely work for the date movie crowd. I saw an early, sold out screening and the chicks in the audience (some with their boyfriends) were eating it up. But you raise some good points.
Gosling is an effeminate block of wood, which is why online blog writers like him. It’s the core of his appeal. But in the real world, audiences don’t find that appealing.
I haven’t Drive, but I and most of the women I know love Tarantino films. Most women I know don’t like movies with violence and action that are there just to be there. The violence does have to have a point.
The Transporter? Really? This is one of the best crime movies I’ve seen since Gone Baby Gone. And calling Gosling “a falling star” is the stupidest thing I’ve heard today. Good for you.
And the gosling PR team just keeps on going
Frankly I don’t see what is so great about him, the only movie I liked was Lars and the real girl, now he’s all pumped up like the other shirtless males of hw
No thanks, I will pass on this one
To each their own. I’m a blue state guy in middle America (Iowa) who loves the guy. First time I saw (or, at least, noticed) him was in “Murder By Numbers.” That wasn’t a special movie by any means, but he blew me away. I just think he’s one of the most talented actors working. You either have it or you don’t. He has it, IMO.
Not sure if he can open a movie, but very few actors can. Maybe Will Smith (although “7 Pounds” didn’t blow up). Hanks was bulletproof, but not anymore. Stars don’t open movies now. IMO it’s because stardom has been watered down by things like reality tv and tabloid mags. It’s a different world. He (Gosling) makes very good movies though.
Gosling is the flesh version of SCOTT PILGRIM VS THE WORLD. Cinema nerds love him, but the rest of the world can’t stand him. The very niche qualities that make him beloved by the cinema nerds are what irritate everyone else. He is far too precocious and precious and “hipper-than-thou” in his approach to acting and stardom. He can’t just relax and be the thing. He is all winking commentary on the thing. Very much like James Franco, who also gets on everybody else’s nerve, but is loved by the niche nerds.
Ryan Gossling = Fading Star. No true blood “fans” show up for A. Skaarsgard. Why are the studio heads such fools to believe if they put “name” ish people in horrible movies it would draw movie goers? Nobody cares about the aging Viking Skaarsgard, and Gossling outside of the Notebook is who?????
Fading star?
For a guy who’s prominent in a film that’s still in the top ten after 7 weeks in release (Crazy Stupid Love)?
For a guy who’s leading this supposed flop to a 93% RT rating?
FYI, the production budget on Drive was around $10-13 million, and it will make that in its first weekend.
There is so much business ignorance in redcup’s post. I can’t be bothered to even correct it. So go on believing in magic money redcup.
Aging?! He’s 35. Just (August 25th).
Christ – that means every studio is gonna convert every fraking old animated film to 3D. For joy!
And there in is the big sad news of the weekend. You are right, and it sucks. It simply means that many fewer slots each year for original material and daring filmmaking like Drive.
I liked Drive. It takes guts to make a film like this. Bravo to the producers for not trying to force it to be just like every other thriller made.
It’s damn good
Drive has been predicted to do 11 million all week, it was never going to have a huge opening, it’s much more an indie film than anything else.
It’s budget is only 13 million, so 11 million on opening weekend is a success, this film is going to make a lot of profit and it got great reviews, win for everyone involved.
Especially since they didn’t spend alot of on promotion unlike the TWC that spent about 15 to 20 million on promotion for a movie that only cost a supposely 8 million.
What are you talking about “didn’t spend a lot of money on promotion”? I’ve been watching TV ads for the Driver for three weeks now. And they must have had weak tracking numbers because they suddenly started running a completely different TV spot this week featuring the romantic angle. Probably hoping to get the Notebook crowd to come to see it. Fact is 11 mil on close to 3000 screens is a terrible BO total. I know the fanboys were predicting it was going to be a big hit but it ain’t happening.
Lion King will easily win the weekend, and open ‘huge’ for a reissue. In LA its selling out the suburban Arclight showings this evening, and will only play bigger tomorrow. Not that I’m one, but people just can’t get enough of it.
Ryan Gosling followers need to get over it, and hope he can land in a distance 2nd.
Given the clearly under-performance of “I Don’t Know How She Does It” — the movie title, I might add, could well describe the meteoric career of Aline Brosh McKenna — can we now officially declare Ms. McKenna a hack with a knack for Lowest Common Denominator sensibilities within a narrow genre?
“Morning Glory”? Epic fail.
“27 Dresses” ? Underwhelming.
“The Devil Wears Prada” ? Box office smash of dubious critical accomplishment.
But one hit out of four hardly would qualify any screenwriter to get the GLOWING New York TImes magazine profile Ms. McKenna garnered a couple of Sundays ago. That the profile titled “If Cinderella Had a Blackberry” mentioned her name in the same breath/talent pool as the writers of “His Girl Friday”, “Network”, “Broadcast News” and, yes, even “Bridesmaids” is enough to have Paddy Chayefsky spinning in his grave.
I guess her managers earned their keep by getting that story in the Gray Lady. Sigh. Please come back to earth, Ms. McKenna, because your talent wants to be reunited with you.
Dude, calm down. There is no one in Hollywood who is under the impression that McKenna is some artistic godsend. She makes absolute garbage, but she makes it well. And give the NYT readers some credit: They look at her credits, and they can infer that she is a well paid writer, but not a talented one. Is Taylor Lautner more talented than a biology professor at UCLA? No, but he’ll get more money for ABDUCTION than the professor will make in their lifetime. That’s life.
That’s great for the Lion King, I guess. Now what’s this about Ghostbusters being re-released theatrically? Is that the new drill? Forgo remakes and just re-release?
And another thing: if 3D IMAX means marking up admission, does that mean Silent/Black&White movies are a mark down? If so, The Artist could do a lot more ticket sales.
I like Gossling. But in this one did not hit the mark. He maybe had 30 lines of dialog, all of it mumbled. Production should have spent the money, but knowing them they are to cheap, to redo some of the dialogue. Why this actress? She looks like she graduated some Catholic School in the valley. She was stuck in some cheapo apt set for most of the movie flirting with Ryan. Albert Brooks was a surprise evil doer. Good performance but still had a little of the schtick. The stunt driving ok. One woman jumped out of her seat during one of the stabbing scenes. VIOLENT MOTHER FUxxer. Over all another waste of time and labor for the sake of the artists/director. And speaking of the director did he really handle the driving sequences..the best part of the movie? Curious
Did Gosling prep for his performance by watching TAXI DRIVER every night like Daniel Day Lewis watched THE TREASURE OF THE SIERRA MADRE.
PT Anderson was quoted saying he watched MADRE every night while shooting THERE WILL BE BLOOD. I never heard DDL watched it every night like that.
Isn’t Carey Mulligan British?
I initially thought Drive was a remake of the 1978 film The Driver directed by Walter Hill staring Ryan O’Neal. Butits actually adapted from James Sallis’s 2005 novel of the same name.
Meanwhile interesting that SJP’s IDK How… is well bested by The Lion King that features hubby Matthew Broderick as the voice of the adult Simba. Broderick is the true actor of that duo.
Jesus, Nikki, what’s with all the Drive spoilers being posted? It’s been out for a few days and some of us haven’t seen it. Ban these narcissists from posting comments.
“Drive” was slow to build, but in addition to the artistic bent, it had a very 70s vibe. Yeah, echoes of “Thief”, but still, very compelling. With the minimal dialogue, the driving, and the physicality, it felt like a Steve McQueen movie that we hadn’t seen yet. Worth watching…and refreshingly absent the Tarantino “hipper than thou” references.