
As network executives break out the “I Survived Premiere Week” T-shirts, they are probably relieved as most nets have something to brag about. Overall, the comedy genre’s comeback was in full force: Half-hour series had a big showing, claiming the top six highest-rated non-sports programs of premiere week among adults 18-49, including rookies 2 Broke Girls (7.1/16 in Live+Same Day) and New Girl (4.8/12) and returning Two and a Half Men (10.7/25), Modern Family (average of 6.1/16 for two episodes), How I Met Your Mother (5.0/13) and The Big Bang Theory (5.0/15). (Additionally, Modern Family, HIMYM and The Middle were all up double-digits from last fall’s premieres, while Big Bang was essentially flat). For comparison, the highest-rated drama series last week was veteran NCIS (4.3/12) and the highest-rated reality series was the X Factor premiere (4.4/12).
Comedies also stood out among the crop of new series, with two potential breakout hits, Fox’s New Girl and CBS’ 2 Broke Girls; two promising new entries, NBC’s Whitney (3.3/8) and Up All Night (2.4/7); and only one dud, NBC’s Free Agents (1.3/4). In contrast, there were no drama breakouts this past week, with four solid openers — ABC’s Revenge (3.3/9) and Pan Am (3.1/8) and CBS’ Person of Interest (3.1/8) and Unforgettable (2.9/8) — and three disappointments in NBC’s The Playboy Club (1.6/4) and Prime Suspect (1.8/5) and ABC’s Charlie’s Angels (2.1/6).
By averaging less than half of American Idol‘s debut ratings, X Factor‘s numbers were low enough to bruise Simon Cowell’s ego but high enough to help Fox score its first premiere week victory in network history. Also encouraging for the reality singing competition was the fact that it was down only a tenth in its second night on Thursday. Below are the preliminary rankings in 18-49 for premiere week and the % change vs. the same period last year. Also factoring into Fox’s double-digit growth was New Girl‘s big premiere number and the fact that the network had an NFL overrun on Sunday vs. no overrun last year. Meanwhile, despite the huge Two and a Half Men season debut and solid performance by almost all CBS shows, the network is down year-to-year because it had the NFL overrun last year, which inflated its premiere week numbers, but didn’t have it this past Sunday.
1 Fox, 3.3/9 (+27%)
2 CBS, 3.0/8 (-9%)
3 ABC, 2.8/8 (flat)
4 NBC, 2.6/7 (-7%)
5 Univision, 1.5/4 (-6%)
6 CW, 0.7/2 (-36%)
Returning series, especially on networks other than CBS, continue to post big double-digit season-to-season declines in their season premieres: ABC’s Grey’s Anatomy (down 24%), Desperate Housewives (-28%) and Body of Proof (-26%), NBC’s Law & Order: SVU (-28%), Harry’s Law (-38%), Community (-23%), Parks and Recreation (-38%) and The Office (-11%), and CBS’ The Mentalist (-18%). Part of the reason is the increased DVR penetration, leading to a larger portion of viewing being shifted to a later date. For instance, in the just released Live+3 ratings for the first half of premiere week, and Parenthood, Law & Order: SVU and Harry’s Law‘s 18-49 numbers went up 33%. That has got to be good news for NBC, which got murdered on most nights last week, finishing twice with an average below a 2 demo rating: On Monday (1.8/5), where The Sing-Off and Playboy Club struggled mightily, and on Wednesday (1.8/5), where the network’s average was dragged down by Free Agents (1.3/4) and Harry’s Law (1.2/3)
The CW seems to be in trouble, tumbling in the ratings from last fall as its series were pummeled by the premiere week competition. New reality series H8R (0.4/1) is joining a string of reality misfires on the network, and veteran America’s Next Top Model (0.7/2) appears to be suffering from the move to 9 PM. The CW’s returning series are down significantly across the board, with no other show besides The Vampire Diaries cracking the 1 18-49 rating mark. (Encouragingly, newbies Ringer and Secret Circle came the closest, both posting a 0.9/2.) On the other hand, CW shows were among the biggest gainers in Live+3, including chart-topper Top Model (+57%), meaning that the network is being hurt from the non-traditional ways its viewers are consuming its programming.
While premiere week is formally over, the TV season is a marathon, not a sprint, and there will be as many questions about the new series’ prospects answered this week as there were last week. Because the networks’ lineups were loaded with viewer favorites — two hours of Grey’s, one hour each of Modern Family, Big Bang, The Middle and HIMYM — Week 2 will probably expose more vulnerable spots on the broadcast schedules. Stay tuned.
TV Editor Nellie Andreeva - tip her here.


I think, in The CW’s case when you’re targetting a younger audience you expect them to consume the shows in different ways.
My cats are smarter than CW bosses: cats know to stroke the people who feed them and ignore those that don’t. CW doesn’t know how to please the fans of their best shows with good spin-offs, CSI style. Take Smallville: The fans of the DC Universe was theirs and they threw it away. They had great Smallville numbers for a few seasons and muffed every spin-off chance like a Justice league time-travel show, an Aquaman pilot, a Green Arrow pilot and others. Now that Smallville died of old age, I don’t have a reason to even turn them on. Yes, folks, they are way stupider than my cats, because they forgot to please us, the FANS.
I wonder how many CW shows will get the axe? 90210 i think is a goner.
Charlies Angels was a study in cliched mediocrity; even worse than H5O that way. It’s fascinating to me that a slow-paced series like BBC’s Inspector Lewis can be so absorbing, while a frantic show like CA can be so boring.
I’ve been around long enough to know that Charlie’s Angels was saddled with some of the poorest acting talent I think I’ve ever seen on network television. Did any Sony/ABC exec see what I saw?
Word. The thing about casting the Angels is that you need to either get actresses who can act–or ones who have uber-obvious, knock-you-out star quality. Just hiring pretty faces isn’t going to cut it–though Minka Kelly can actually act.
Live ratings are IRRELEVANT today. I time shift everything I watch and some shows hang on my DVR for weeks before I watch. The ONLY true metric is: did the show GET watched and within how many days of broadcast; also Comcast offers me the chance to watch off their servers rather than just my DVR – are ratings catching those views as well?
Umm wrong. To advertisers, live is all that counts, and so it should be so. They are the ones pauing for these shows to be on in the end. As an advertiser, why should I care how you wztch the show if it isn’t on live and my ads being watched.
Dunno about your “On Demand,” but on Comcast, ads are run during shows from certain networks (ABC, Fox) and you can’t fast-forward through them.
Last I heard, 40% of DVR users still watch ads. I have no idea why, but there you have it. So advertisers should count time-shifted viewing as 40% as good as live (assuming their ads aren’t highly time sensitive, which they often are).
Whether they do count those ads is another question. I’m sure they’re happy to use time-shifting as leverage to negotiate lower rates with networks. Any way you slice it, DVRs hurt network ratings, regardless of what the press releases say.
Go PAN AM! Gooooo!!!
it’s faboulos!!!
I was surprised by how much I enjoyed it
Some insiders predicted that NBC will finish in 3rd place at the end of the season in the 18-49 demo, but taking into account that it only managed a 4th place finish with football on, then it might actually finish below CW.
Dumbest thing I have read on this blog yet.
I sense a lot of buyers remorse on many of these projects.
There’s no trick to programming a network. Every bomb is clear in the pilot. Business politics, ego and money force these things on the air. Nothing else.
I agree. Both the scripts for The Playboy Club and Ringer read really well, but were executed poorly. You could tell they had no chance, based on strange creative choices that sucked the life out of them.
The networks are going continue to post rating declines because the lower end of their antiquated demo target does not watch television in the same manner as the older end. They should shift their focus to A2554 or A35+ for a more accurate snapshot of viewership.
With their W1834 targeting, the CW should hardly be surprised by their declines.
Actually, many people on the “older end” also watch everything online. But you’re absolutely right about “antiquated.” It’s one thing to put on shows that are set in the sixties, quite another to run your business as if we’re still back there.
Body of Proof’s premiere was March 30th not last years premiere week. So to say it was down from last year is really not accurate. Plus DWTS was down 1.5 in the demo and 4 million viewers and BoP was only -.2 and virtually identical in total viewers to Detroit 187s premiere last year. That looks like a win for ABC.
There are so many shows i either watch from dvr..or on demand..its very rare i catch anything when its live
When I get my phone bill I can read exactly how many minutes I used and who I talked with for how long. Proof on every call. When nielsen releases their “made up numbers” nobody knows where they came from or how they got them. Isn’t about time the industry coughs up some dough and creates an accurate method of tracking viewership? Hmmm… Maybe the networks and studios don’t want advertisers to know how many are actually NOT watching. Let’s face it, Nielsen today is as relevant as the slide rule.
Creating that accurate ratings system that everyone fantasizes about would be prohibitively expensive. As long as the advertisers accept the Neilsens as an accurate basis for their ad rates, why should the networks bother with a different system, especially one that costs them money?
Saying “as long as advertisers accept the Nielsens as acurate” is not a solution to the problem. It’s simply catering to it. Advertisers need to come up with a more accurate way, plain and simple. If shows can be tracked online with hits, and tracked through DVRs, there’s no excuse as to why they can’t track live viewing. You gotta spend money to make money.
What was the result of Good wife moving to Sunday?
It is an antiquated system. According to a recent article in the WSJ (“TV Lures Ads as Audiences Scatter”, Sept. 21, 2011) this is still how advertisers make their media buys. They devalue (in my opinion) online viewing. In some ways their response mirrors how people viewed reaching consumers vîs å vîs newspapers. They seem to be willing to wait until the market is non-existent before they turn to where the audiences are really at, which appears to be multiple platforms. To me unless you absolutely can’t afford it then I can’t see why you wouldn’t use a DVR/Tivo-type device. It allows for more efficient and pleasurable viewing experience.
I can afford it and I do not care to own one. I am not “old.” rofl. Time shifters are a portion of the viewing universe and perhaps bray the loudest, but not the center.
Exactly – until and unless advertisers decide they will no longer accept Nielsens as an accurate measurement, everyone else will go along as per usual. The only thing that matters is that the advertisers are happy, not whether the Nielsens are objectively accurate. The networks could be pulling numbers out of their asses at random, and if the advertisers were happy, that’s the system they would use.
“Sangadoo” hit it right…should we say Ron Howard and “Playboy.
I can’t wait to hear what shows are getting cancelled.
I’ve never liked the “horse race” aspect of Nielsen reporting, because it doesn’t help you with ad buys. “Idol’s” huge numbers have skewed Fox’s weekly numbers for years when the rest of the week was pretty weak (except for Sundays). I always steer toward CBS because although it didn’t win the 18-49 race for the week, it had more shows (10) on more nights (4) in the Top 25 than the other networks. Although if I were CBS executives, I would worry about the aging lineup. The drop from last season’s first week wasn’t good. Fox has done an amazing job of improving itself, though: seven shows in the Top 25 in 18-49, also on four nights. X-Factor might be a disappointment, but it’s one I could live with. I’ll be interested to see how, after a season of X-Factor, viewers will greet Idol. The drop in Glee must be worrisome. The disappointment in last season and the summer of bad P.R. seems to have taken its toll.
For a network that STRUGGLES in the ratings and achieves VERY LOW numbers it’s surprising to me to see The CW take a low performer like The Vampire Diaries and target a goal of matching it’s low numbers with The Secret Circle. Yes I know TVD does well FOR THE CW but overall it’s still bottom of the barrel ratings. TSC is a good match for it but only if you want to stay in 4th place.
NBC is just a mess. The comedy line-up on Thursday has quality shows with poor ratings. The fact that a traditional format comedy like Whitney does better than the low rated single cam of Community should tell them to dump Community. Yes, that’s right, DUMP COMMUNITY. No ratings, no Emmy’s, no chance it will ever get the ratings of the CBS monday comedies. Clean house NBC. Prime Suspect will never be hit saddles with those ratings losers.
Could not agree more with the ratings-haters — Nielsen ratings are wildly inaccurate and their assumptions regarding taste preferences based on gender, age, and ethnicity are blatantly discriminatory. In 2009 their sample was only 25,000 versus the estimated 114 MILLION viewing households, a mere .02 percent. On a purely statistical basis, there is far too large a margin of error to place any weight on these ratings, yet the fate of our favorite shows rest upon them. It is outrageously foolish for the networks (and advertisers) to continue to rely on these asinine methods. It would seem they would both have a vested interest in recording accurate data – and exactly how hard would it be to simply measure number of televisions viewing anonymously via a built-in chip? Privacy is the only issue I can think of, but if it’s anonymous, that would be a moot point…
Privacy is really the only issue you can think of? How about money? Who’s going to pay for all those TVs with monitoring chips?
Unless the advertisers start refusing to accept Nielsens as an accurate measurement, nobody has any motive to change the system. Networks don’t actually care if the numbers are accurate, only that they’re big numbers and the advertisers accept them. Why should they care? They’re in the ad-selling business, not the accurate-ratings-reporting business.
No mention of A Gifted Man, Nellie?
Kept waiting for something, anything, to happen on Pan Am other than
a pretty pilot and several pretty stewardesses, most of whom couldn’t act their way out of a paper bag. Created a time period, but that alone, without a plot, and good writing and acting just isn’t going to help this series.
What about New Girl? I was so excited for this show after watching the previews…but GOD is this show AWFUL…the acting of Zooey Deschanel is just god awful, it’s horrendous! I get that they are trying to show her as this lovable, nerdy girl…but it just doesn’t come across that way…she comes off as a space cadet, all ditz NO wit or charm. AWFUL! Yet somehow this show is getting the green light to air for the entire season. THIS SHOW NEEDS TO BE CANCELLED! And I’m saying this after watching the first two episodes.