Something always seems to be a little weird when Netflix announces big news about itself — and today’s unveiling of its streaming deal with DreamWorks Animation is no exception. The news appeared to have been handed to The New York Times; it had the first story as well as interviews with executives from both companies. But that’s not the problem: What’s curious is why The Times felt confident enough to say that unnamed “analysts estimate (the deal) is worth $30 million per picture to DreamWorks.” Although there were no details to support that estimate, it quickly became perceived as a fact. For example, a Reuters story stated that the deal is “worth $30 million per picture to DreamWorks over a number of years.” If that’s true, then it’s a big deal; HBO currently pays the studio about $20M per picture. If the $30M figure for the Netflix deal is accurate, then Caris & Co analyst David Miller says his 2013 earnings estimate for DreamWorks “would therefore improve from $1.58 (per share) to $1.70.”
OK, so is it true? The companies don’t say: Many hours after the Times story ran, Netflix and DreamWorks jointly filed a press release that said “financial terms of the agreement were not disclosed.” But some analysts find the $30M figure hard to believe. Susquehana Financial Group’s Vasily Karasyov writes this morning that “we would be surprised if the terms for (DreamWorks Animation) are more favorable than those of their current deal with HBO. We think the change in pay TV partners was due to HBO shifting away from animation and not because (Netflix) offered significantly superior terms.” Janney Capital Markets’ Tony Wible also says that “it appears (DreamWorks) was kicked out of HBO and that (Netflix) was the buyer of last resort.”
This might be nit-picking if it didn’t seem to fit Netflix’s pattern of over-the-top spinning. Netflix issued just a bare-bones press release in July to announce news that infuriated consumers — that the company was splitting its streaming service from the DVD rental one in a way that would raise prices by 60% for those who wanted to continue to have both. That plus the disclosure this month that subscriptions are down more than expected sent Netflix stock plunging; it’s off 56.5% since mid-July. But when CEO Reed Hastings recently decided to apologize, and release news about the rebranding of the DVD service as “Qwikster,” he did it in a blog post — not a detailed release or SEC filing — leaving many investors hungry for details. Several analysts also chafe at the way Netflix handles its quarterly earnings calls: Instead of allowing participants to ask questions directly, the way the vast majority of companies do, Netflix requires them to email their queries so a staffer can pose selected ones to Hastings — depriving analysts of the opportunity to ask follow-ups. Potentially making matters worse, Netflix has told the SEC that it wants to stop disclosing gross subscriber additions, churn, and subscriber acquisition costs. Since customers can join and quit whenever they want, Netflix says that churn “could be viewed as a negative business development” even though the company believes it’s cost effective — and adds that “investors do not necessarily consider churn an important metric for measuring the performance of a subscription business.”
After all that, perhaps it shouldn’t be a surprise that many investors are skeptical about Netflix’s new deal with DreamWorks Animation. “It gives them both ammunition to spin for two stocks that have been on the decline,” Wible says. Shares of both companies popped this morning, but then fell to slightly below their Friday closing prices. Netflix is off 21.7% over the last 12 months while DreamWorks is down 42.9% for the year-long period.


So Netflix gets first shot at 2 or 3 films a year off this deal?
Does sound like the $30 million must be tied into performance numbers – if they get so much streaming action, they have to cough up more. This isn’t like when it runs on HBO when they get a guess on how many viewers watched it. Netflix can give hard stream numbers.
at least it gives the impression of beefing up the streaming side which had films on par with the vault of the THiS Network
If NFLX is a publicly traded company, shouldn’t we have an accurate account of what they are paying for streaming licenses? I know they charge penalties if they give you a set amount of annual slots and you don’t fill them.
-RnsW
NFLX doesn’t expense the life of their deals when agreements are reached; they are amortized over the useful life of the content and more recently NFLX has moved this all off balance sheet due to the enormity of the obligations.
so you can piece together a holistic view of their content deal commitments, but not individual deals.
I highly doubt the numbers are accurate. I have confronted the NYT about lying and writing their news based on fiction as opposed to FACTS….
NYT is politically motivated and can be very vicious in their writing, more importantly I have caught them lying in numerous articles….Ronald Rumsfeld recently cancelled his subscription with NYT because of their dishonesty in their news and viciousness….I have also stopped reading them too, plus the word has gotten out that they lie so their ads pages are down 8 percent, NYT is losing credibility! In this economy Netflix can’t afford to pay 30 millions for each cartoon….absurd! NYT also almost got sued by a businessman from CA from not printing facts, but lies and exaggerated financial numbers about him and his businesses, he demanded an apology from them, by taking out a whole page and exposed them. Their editor is not the sharpest tools in the box!
If anyone took a beat to dissect the Netflix situation you’d see they’re positioning themselves for a sale to Amazon. Breaking apart DVD/Streaming businesses? It’s so Amazon can avoid taking on physical assets (DVD) for tax reasons. Amazon is desperate to get into the streaming business and purchasing Netflix’s streaming infrastructure, and the brand name itself, immediately makes them the market leader.
But Amazon just announced a streaming deal of its own today, so I’m not sure Amazon is looking to buy something as expensive as Netlfix would be (although they could get them for a deal after last week)
Agreed Amazon does not need NFLX. Amazon just did a deal with FOX that gives it the same content NFLX has with them. I was one of those who thought NFLX was a good product. Not any longer. I find Amazon fills the void much better and cost less. If I want the DVD I buy at a very lowcost and get it in two days plus the unlimited streaming. Not to mention all their other low cost products they compete with Costco too. Not to mention how they put record stores and bookstores out of business. The next big thing from Amazon will be their competition to APPL’s Ipad.
Amazon doesn’t really need to purchase Netflix for their streaming infrastructure, since Amazon already has an incredibly robust infrastructure itself. In fact, Netflix decided to start moving their online/streaming business onto Amazon’s servers last year.
Netflix is dead in the water. They talk about innovation but they are a middleman and the ONLY innovation would be how to make sure the quality of the streaming material IS.
They need to get on board and get some MORE quality material. The website is full of smoke and mirrors. I am about to cancel, then wait a while then re-join when they get their act together.
And it’s 2011, what Netflix is able to stream in 2013 will not keep me paying my subscription fee to wait til then.
You will NEVER see an improvement in the selection until the STUDIOS are ready, not Amazon, not Blockbuster, not Netflix, when will people understand it’s the STUDIOS, the content OWNERS control this game.
When they are ready to release movies quickly they will, otherwise your stuck with what you get.
What?! You’re kidding?! Katzenberg and Hastings spinning the information?! What a shock!!!
Amazon already provides streaming and has the infrastructure. Netflix does not have much in terms of long term exclusive contracts so the value to amazon is minimal
Is Netflix Enron-lite?
j/k