Netflix is in for a brutal morning: The stock is down 35% in pre-market trading from its $118.84 close yesterday as some influential Wall Street analysts tell investors it’s time to dump the stock following last night’s disappointing earnings report and forecast. Susquehanna Financial Group’s Vasily Karasyov downgraded Netflix to “negative” from “neutral.” He says that it “looks like the nuclear winter scenario is playing out” for the company as “subscriber base expansion in the U.S. appears to be minimal and losses from international launches are weighing on profitability.” The combination will “put to rest the bull case on (Netflix) as we know it.” Janney Capital Markets’ Tony Wible also downgraded the stock to “sell” – and slashed his price target in half to $51. Calling the company’s business model “unsustainable” he says: “Fundamentals are eroding, management credibility is shot, international growth is deteriorating, and margins are imploding. Furthermore, the company’s disclosures support our view that the DVD business accounts for a disproportionate amount of (Netflix’s) profits (82%),” which means investors should look at it as an old-fashioned rental company instead of a digital-age power. Even Netflix supporters are retrenching. Credit Suisse’s John Blackledge cut his target price for the stock to $100 from $240 but is sticking with his “outperform” forecast. “We do not believe the opportunity has changed for (Netflix), we believe the competitive positioning is strong and will look for further inflection points in sub growth and (international) profit progress as catalysts over the next 12 months.”






Once again the stupidity of the film business with respect to new technologies rears its ugly head. I don’t want to have eight subscription accounts to stream movies on demand: I want to go to ONE place and that was Netflix. The studios should have negotiated smart/fair revenue deals with Netflix, let NF manage the business and add the streaming revenue royalties to the studios bottom lines. By balkanizing the streaming biz, they’ll kill it or Apple will own it and squeeze the studios. TV, cable, videocassettes, DVDs, streaming – they never learn!
While I certainly agree with you on studio greed, you should know that Netflix has also been doing a lot of stupid crap as well. They dug their own grave.
I understand that Netflix was just making price adjustments that reflected the increased costs to them due to studios demanding more. If this is true than Netflix is being punished for doing what had to be done in order to stay in business. If not,then as you say,they have dug their own graves for over misreading their customer base.
I certainly agree that Netflix needed to raise their prices due to the studios demanding more and more. It’s why I actually agree about the point of studio greed. They need their content to be widespread in order to make up the lost revenue from home video’s decline, but they can’t seem to grasp the idea that it needs to be affordable.
However, Netflix has handled this completely the wrong way. They shouldn’t have made the 60% price increase feel so sudden and so drastic. Qwikster was just one huge debacle. And they have consistently alienated their subscriber base in the past couple of months. That is why Netflix has dug their own grave.
you’re so off base and out of line that it only merits this chastising remark and not a full rebuttal. just b/c you say these agreements are “smart/fair” does not mean they make economic sense going forward in a world with greater competition and outlets for distribution. this is netflix’s fault, not the studios.
I agree about studio greed also, but it is Netflix’s greed / customer exploitation that started this whole thing.
Key word: “was”. That WAS Netflix BEFORE Netflix decided to increase their subscription cost by SIXTY PERCENT for a smaller streaming library (Starz) and the debacle that was Qwikster.
Netflix failed abysmally and, at this point, their board members should be screaming for Reed’s resignation.
Wow.
I didn’t think it was going to happen *this* fast. It’s obvious the streaming business model is unsustainable since they lack large windows for their “A” titles, meanwhile films like “The Rosebud Beach Hotel” are available streaming for years. NFLX won’t be able to support the license fees they’re going to be forced to pay to keep the worthwhile titles.
It wasn’t in any moment of defiance, but I joined the Blockbuster program a few weeks ago: not bad. They take an extra few days to ship the physical DVD, which doesn’t bother me a great deal, but what I really like about it is it has more of an a la carte mentality with the streaming availability. 90% of the titles I’ve searched for are available, on a PPV VOD basis. Whereas only 20% of the same titles were readily available for streaming on NFLX.
I don’t mind paying $2.99 to stream FORREST GUMP because it’s there when I want it, as opposed to waiting around for when it becomes “briefly” available on NFLX through the EPIX arrangement.
But then again, NFLX has DISASTER ON THE COASTLINER available for streaming… I wouldn’t know any other way to be able to watch this MOW gem. I don’t even know if its’ ever been available commercially on DVD.
Maybe NFLX is merely a Sam Arkoff/Roger Corman-esque type of streaming service, just peddling crap, and the studios themselves will conspire to put together a really dynamic portal on the MSOs that make all studio titles available, whenever consumers want them, on a pay-per-view basis.
Wouldn’t surprise me with the stock slump that a major conglom attempts to stock-swap with NFLX, thus giving it the studio access it so sorely needs… (Rupe? Sumner? Bewkes?)
-RnsW
I was with you until “I don’t mind paying $2.99 to stream FORREST GUMP,” then you lost me completely.
I should have said SHAWSHANK REDEMPTION. Sorry.
i hate FORREST GUMP, I just used it because it was a good example of a Paramount title stuck in the EPIX/NFLX streaming deal.
-RnsW
Holy acronyms btmn.
I’ve kept Netflix streaming for Mad Men and independent movies like Vidal Sassoon et al. It’s worth it.
Fundamentals are eroding, management credibility is shot, international growth is deteriorating, and margins are imploding.
And Hollywood Content is on life support, so why pay a subscription to crap. It’s getting to look a lot like cable television entertainment. 4 good programs out of 150 channels. Doesn’t add up.
It’s the end of Netflix! When they raised their rates, it meant the beginning of defections from their service. Blockbuster’s deal with Dish Network(and possibly Comcast and Verizon FIOS a few years down the road) is making it difficult for Netflix to compete. As far as they’re concerned, Netflix is a sinking ship. Better break out the hymn books and join in a chorus of “Nearer, My God, To Thee,” if you ask me about their future.
Blockbuster isn’t going to expand into Comcast and Verizon on account that Dish Network owns Blockbuster. Blockbuster’s services are meant to be an incentive to get people to subscribe to Dish Network.
I guess greed isn’t good.
I had both Blockbusters by mail and Netflix by mail, I just cancelled Blockbusters because they were so slow, Netflix had a new movie at my home by the time I put they old on in the mail…so I’m really disappointed to here this about Netflix..
Wow, how the mighty have fallen. Hard to believe they’ve completely destroyed their own business in such a short amount of time. Nice job, Reed!
Agreed. A lot of this damage was self-inflicted and may go down as a textbook example for future business students of what not to do. I’ve found book reading to be a much cheaper, more stimulating alternative.
What’s a “book”?
Well, I’m still hanging in there with them as I subscribe to the streaming service. Hopefully everything shakes out quickly so the customers can continue to enjoy the variety of films Netflix offers
I wonder…
Say you were an up-and-coming digital film distribution company, like Netflix. You take the long view, well five years is a very long time in California, anyway. When you started the company, you negotiated very sweet deals with the studios, but now you have to renegotiate…
Would you rather do this negotiation when your stock is flying high at $300, or if you are struggling along at $50? The Netflix of six months ago would have faced an extremely difficult negotiating climate — if the studios know nothing else, they know when somebody else has money. Not that the studios would collude (I’d be shocked, shocked!) but Netflix would effectively find a united front of very expensive offers presented.
Now, they are almost back to the scrappy, struggling, young company they were when they negotiated the first time. And…if you know that you are going to have to take some unprofitable steps (opening in foreign territories, switching to a more-streaming model) then this might be the perfect time to do it.
As an example — the company is called Netflix. Not Discflix — they wanted to be in the streaming business when they started. They do take a reasonably long view, and are willing to take some shots along the way.
If you are suggesting that somehow Hastings and the rest of the executive team at Netflix actually *prefers* to have their stock trading at $50 rather than a $300, I can assure that is not the case. No company wants their stock to plummet. I actually think the studios will smell the blood in the water and be even less likely to negotiate with the wounded Netflix. My guess is that within 24 months Hastings will be gone. Whether or not Netflix will continue to exist as an independent entity is uncertain. If it goes down to $50 (heck, even at 87 or whatever it is right now), it is certainly more attractive to potential buyers. I know a lot of people love to rag on Netflix, but to me what they offer streaming-wise for $7.99 is not bad at all. Could it be better? Sure. Is it annoying as all hell when movies “disappear” from your queue because the license agreement expires – HELL YES. But, for less than the price of a cocktail I get a wide range of stuff. Not bad.
“…less than the price of a cocktail…”??
You definitely don’t live in L.A.
I am about to cancel my netflix subscription. Used to have dvd+streaming but downgraded to just streaming, only to find that the options are limited at best. Even if they didn’t have most new releases, its unthinkable that they don’t have all the classic movies available. For example, not one film by Almodovar is available to watch instantly. What’s the point? For $3.99 I can rent the movie I want from iTunes.
Unthinkable? Come on, moxie, your mind is surely capable of such grand designs!
I agree it’d be better if they had every move available, but sometimes they just decide the content is too much to pay for. For some reason all John Hughes movies seem to fall into this category. Perhaps the rights are owned by a studio that wants Netflix to fail (no idea). The “point” however is that your 3.99/rental works out great if you rent 2 movies or less a month. Beyond that, you’re paying more. Now I’m just a joe schmoe, but I suspect most Netflix subscribers are like me and hadn’t really heard of Almodovar. So for them, their allotcated licensing money is probably better spent elsewhere (Sixteen Candles, yo!). We are the 99%! Ok, just kidding about that part.
Raising rates was the beginning of the end, and it shows they simply had no clue that it would backfire on them when they said “oh it’s ok, we’ll dump QUICKSTER but we’ll stay Netflix!” As if that was going to get consumers to stick around or come back.
Hello — YOU RAISED THE RATES. It’s all about what it costs SUBSCRIBERS guys. Whatever your “brand” is, it doesn’t matter — you can’t almost double the rates in this day and age and expect everyone to stick around.
What it all boils down to is greed. I think they truly believed their service was so important to consumers they could get away with it, but as this has proven, it certainly wasn’t.
Would you rather have the same low rates and a limited selection? Because the studios want big money for selection, the studios are running Netflix, THEY dictate what when and where. People that complain because they don’t have just released movies on streaming have their head in the clouds, STUDIOS WON’T ALLOW IT. Now if you wanted to pay $5.99 a movie then maybe, because if they did allow it, it would kill the DirecTV, Dish Network, and cable business.
People need to think, there is a timeline for studios, and they control that timeline NOT NETFLIX.
I cancelled my dvd subscription (too high) but I still have the streaming service and I love it. I can watch tv while I’m working or at school. Hopefully, Netflix can pull out of this slump.
Watching TV at work and school. America, Fuck yeah!
Analysts… analysts… analysts…
Analysts KNOW nothing!!! All the power in important business decisions is made by “educated” analysts who tell business execs to go one way and not the other.
If I’m not mistaken, analysts told Netflix to jack up the prices at an exorbitant rate with the reasoning that any fallback and drop-off in customer subscriptions would be offset by the rise in profits. Now these same analysts are saying drop Netflix stock like a sack of potatoes because the company is a sinking ship.
WHY is anyone listening to these people?
I think Netflix’ death spiral started not with the rate fiasco, but the slow strangulation of the ‘Friends’ features. I’ve read quite about about how the early adopters of Netflix who were totally into using the ‘Friends’ features to social network with their friends and look at each others’ ratings and recommendations were really pissed off by the discontinuation of those features as Netflix moved from DVD rental service to new release streaming service.
THAT’S the kind of ‘F U, customers’ attitude that really stands out for me.
No, that has nothing to do with it.
I think it does.
They started by taking away functionality – they took away community features, then they redid the streaming website and made it difficult to use, then they raised the prices without adding any content, then they took away ‘Saved’ DVDs from queues without telling anyone, then they announced the ridiculous Quikster thing.
I don’t think most people are this upset over one particular thing, and I don’t think paying a couple more dollars a month for what (was) a great service is what had customers up in arms either. It’s been a string of bad decisions coupled with the fact that Netflix hasn’t listened to ANY of the customer protests along the way. Reed Hastings’s arrogance is astounding.
I left NF within one week of the two service pricing change. (800’000k subs lost to date, can you say, un-occupy NetFlix?) Why? Because their greedy pricing change (which they have every right to do, this is still America, right?;) woke me up to the cold hard “cash” reality of just how much I was spending on content in this down economy. Comcast cable Internet – direcTV – iTunes – AT&T – SirriusXM and yes, Verizon (we still have a land line too.)
All these necessary? “Paid” portals to consume, connect, and obtain media… Not to mention the oft weekly movie theater outing! For me, the NetFlix gouge woke me up from my slumber-ous consumption of all things paid “D”.
No one needs to follow suit but I’ve since decided to cancelled SirriusXM, (letting contract run out) an we are cutting Verizon cord, (efax here we come! What?! How much per fax? Oy!) and we’re looking to other ways to scale back, our media “meals” too.
Now where did I put those old rabbit ears??? Yikes!
Netflix thought they could make even more money.Netflix was on top for awhile and they thought they could charge whatever.Pretty stupid move in thsi economy.I dropped them also.
Casey Mahoney Brad P
I am sorry but who the hell has so much time to sit there and stream video? I know I don’t. I think people need to stop their whining you know that paying for Netflix is a treat not a necessity. I personally don’t stream films so I like the DVDs and I hope they don’t stop that service.
I have had Netflix for about 10 years and if it wasn’t for their service I would, 1 owe a huge amount of late fees to Blockbuster which I hated anyways and 2 would never have been able to watch a series that I loved from beginning to end including the 2 hour movies in between the seasons.
Good thing I”m a college student. I pay only $8/month for Netflix’s streaming, and have free access to my school’s library collection, which includes obscure foreign/art films in addition to the classics and usual stuff.
Am I the only one here that just wants to slap little Thaddeus?
Oh, how much do you pay for school? Oh, you don’t…
AJ,
You are divorced from reality. The blame for this is 100% on Netflix and their self-sabotage. Reed Hastings decided to alienate his loyal customers by raising their prices. Their stock was through the roof before that. Blaming the studios makes as much sense as blaming Swiss cheese.
So, according to their own press release, 82% of Netflix’s business is sending out DVDs. You wouldn’t have known that by how much Reed Hastings babbles on about streaming or the people online who keep telling us that DVDs are dead and streaming is the present. Obviously, those online people are nothing but a vocal minority. And, honestly, if Starz is rejecting $300 million offers to stream their stuff, Netflix would be better of financially sending out the DVDs. Sorry, kids, but DVDs are here to stay for a very long time.
I do live in LA. And it’s less than the price of a cocktail.
“Be careful what you wish for” is especially relevant to the studios.
The current demise of Netflix was the studios’ most cherished dream and became reality, but history will tell if that was the best thing that could happen for them.
They wished and worked for the demise of Blockbuster, which they got, but then with Netflix’s ascension they wished Blockbuster were still there putting up some competition to Netflix.
Always been that way, same thing in the old days of VHS, the studios fought tooth and nail to kill VHS because they thought it would cannibalize theater attendance… they lost, and VHS ended up being, like DVD, a huge cash cow for them. Be careful what you wish for, studios.
“I just torrent movies now.”
-More people than you’d like to imagine (and growing)
Seriously, Hollywood has to get their shit together, because it’s becoming SO easy to bootleg movies now. It’s not like 3 years ago when you’d have to download all kinds of weird software and go to obscure sites. It’s turning into Napster-convenience.
It’s real. People will just wait a few months and then torrent Captain America if there isn’t a solid, all-in-one place to go for discs and streaming that can compete with the convenience of opening up Vuze and hitting “Download Now”.
And no, the answer isn’t just spending years and years trying to push through anti-piracy legislation in international committees. By the time you even start to see people organizing for that cause, average Joes will be used to free downloading, and you’ll be at the music industry circa 2003.