The Dow Jones U.S. Media Index was down 3.5% today while the DJ Industrial Average was off 2.4% — and Goldman Sachs may have contributed to the imbalance: It downgraded the entertainment sector today to “neutral” from “attractive” saying that ad sales will be weaker than expected as the overall economy softens. That came as the market also reacted to Greece’s report over the weekend that it will fail to hit its deficit-reduction targets for the year — increasing the possibility of a default. CBS, -7%, was the biggest loser among the major media companies. It was followed by Viacom (-5.1%), Sony (-4.7%), Disney (-3.9%), Time Warner (-3.4%), and Comcast (-2.2%). In the broader media market, broadcasters Westwood One, LIN TV, Rado One, and Entercom were down by more than 10%. Pandora, Live Nation, Crown Media and Cumulus Media lost more than 8% of their market value. A few companies were up for the day including Yahoo (+2.7%), Regal Entertainment (+2.0%), Coinstar (+1.6%) and Time Warner Cable (+0.2%).

What will save media ad sales the next thirteen months will be the election campaign.
Thanks to the Citizens United decision, which allows corporations, special interest groups, and labor unions to spend unlimited amounts of money in political campaigns and lifts restrictions on the kinds of political advertising outside groups can run during election campaigns, there’s going to be an unprecedented wave of political ad spending.
How big?? Billions.
In fact, in the last couple of months prior to Election Day next November, it may be impossible for non-political advertisers in many parts of the country to buy TV (and radio spots on some stations, mainly all-news or talk stations) commercial spots.
For example, expect Detroit to delay introducing their 2013 models until after Election Day because it may be impossible for automakers to buy TV time in early Fall, traditionally the time new cars are introduced.
For TV stations (and radio stations programming news or talk formats), 2012 could be a windfall.
But if the economy is still weak after Election Day 2012, media may suffer ad revenue declines in late 2012 and 2013.
Just a friendly reminder…(from 2010)
Phillip D – CEO amassed $84.5 million in stock, salary and other benefits during Viacom’s fiscal year, which ended on Sept. 30 (2010). Included in the giant sum is a one-time stock award — $31.7 million — which is dependent on financial goals over the next five years and was part of his new agreement signed in April. The company’s three top executives — Dauman, chairman Sumner Redstone and COO Thomas Dooley — were paid $165 million in stock
Why are ad sales down? Couldn’t have anything to do with the fact that movies this summer all sucked balls, could it?
So ad sales are down. Wonder why that is?
Could it be because of the uncreative and formulaic broadcast programming decisions made by the commercial networks?
Could it be because the public is finally growing tired of watching doctors, nurses, cops, and lawyers in interchangeable shows, many of which don’t even last a season?
Could it be because viewers have turnedf away from one mindless talent show or reality show or game show after another?
Could it be ebcause aside from the final Harry Potter film, the rest of 2011′s revenues were actually less than last year?
Could it be because movie studios insist on rebooting, or reimagining, or relaunching, or re-sequel-ing the same old titles?
Could it be because mining old 1960s and 1970s and 1980s television shows has not brought in the eyeballs?
Amd could it be that people can barely afford to buy food and gas these days?
Uncreative and uninspired programming has real consequences. This is it.