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EXCLUSIVE: The international rollout starts Wednesday. But I’ve just learned that an internal Summit Entertainment estimate puts this weekend’s domestic opening of Breaking Dawn Part 1 at $110 million to $125 million. That will make this fourth film in the Twilight Saga franchise the 2nd biggest weekend debut since the studio began making Stephenie Meyer’s vampire romance novels into films – behind only the Twilight sequel New Moon. [UPDATE: Rival studios think Summit is lowballing and expect Breaking Dawn to debut to $142+M.] And remember this is a female-driven 2D movie. It’s the 3D fanboy-driven movies that have been so hurt by slumping box office of late. Once again, the newest installment will be releasing into more than 4,061 locations in North America. No number of theaters yet known for the midnight opening Thursday. Since the franchise began, Twilight opened domestically to $69.6M in 2008, New Moon to $142.8M in 2009, Eclipse to $64.8M in 2010.
As for the day and date international rollout, here’s the release schedule: November 16th Belgium, France, Italy, Netherlands, South Africa, Sweden, Switzerland; November 17th – Australia, Argentina, Bahrain, Bolivia, Chile, CIS, Croatia, Czech, Denmark, Egypt, Greece, Hungary, Israel, Lebanon, Mexico, New Zealand, Norway, Oman, Peru, Portugal, Qatar, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, UAE, Ukraine; November 18th – Aruba, Brazil, Bulgaria, Colombia, Ecuador, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Indonesia, Latvia, Lithuania, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Taiwan, Turkey, Uruguay, Venezuela, West Indies, UK. (Previous: YIKES! Twilight Fans Already Lining Up For ‘Breaking Dawn′ Premiere)
For more estimates listed by title, see box office results here...Editor-in-Chief Nikki Finke - tip her here.
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Why that low when the last Twilight film to open on this weekend posted an opening of $142.8 million? This film will open with $150 million easy. Especially with all the Twilight fans looking to take the opening weekend record away from Deathly hallows Part 2. I doubt Breaking Dawn part 1 will be able to break the record, but Part 2 has a very strong chance.
I don’t think this one is going to do as well as some people are expecting. I think the franchise has lost some of its steam. There’s not a single sold out show in my market at this point. Not one.
$125 million? That’s a lot of sheep. Baa Ram Ewe.
Why did Eclipse open with less than Twilight and New Moon?
Those are Friday through Sunday OW numbers. Eclipse opened on a Wednesday which burnt alot of demand before Friday. It’s 5 – day was 150m+ in line with New Moon.
1st week gross:
Eclipse 187
New Moon 188
Twilight 93
Do you have to take lots of drugs to make these Twilight films work? Cause I’ve caught them on Showtime and they’re the so poorly paced and drudges.
Yikes. That’s below most predictions that put it around 155 million $ opening weekend.
These numbers can’t possibly be true. EVERYONE knows that chicks don’t go to the movies.
tracking has the film potentially opening to a higher number: closer to 140…
All I know is the two ladies friends of mine who are wanting to see this are both manic-depressives. Just saying…
Hey I also want to see it, but I’ll also watch those horrible Syfy channel produced movies
It should be higher considering the level if anticipation. Females are a highly under-indulged demographic. I actually hope it matches New Moon. Something needs to ignite the boxoffice soon. Fanboy fallacy is a joke. If it doesn’t sell tickets…….
The only reason Eclipse didn’t match New Moon’s opening weekend gross is that it opened in June. New Moon opened at the same time of year that Breaking Dawn is opening. I predict a first weekend take of $153 million.
So are we going to have to see more bad Taylor Lautner films. All he can do is play a wolf
Maybe $135 million but as the week goes on the percent of ticket sale will likely go down just the fact hugo coming out and arthur christmas and top of that the movie has gotten terrible reviews early.
Aren’t twihards tired? It’s the the forth movie and they still plan to go 6 times on week-end for it? And then another 10 times during it’s run? Will those people ever grow up? At least during first two movies Pattinson somehow looked pretty and funny with his hair. Now he just looks gross. How can anyone dream about that?
Fun note: When Harry Potter ended people cried. It was sadness all around. And those weren’t die hard fans. Most of the people only went one or two times to see final Potter. When Twilight will end everyone will be like: “Thank God. Finally”
There will be nothing more than a bunch of squealing teenagers and fans of the book series filling the theaters. May debut with big sales but just as the other films, the excitement will die down quickly as it began. At least, let’s hope.
Does it really matter WHO is filling the theaters to see it? NOBODY has been filling them as of late.
Noone filling? Attendance is higher than over half of the last 30 years. Adjusted gross is higher than almost every year except last year. The crisis is just a media created storm, completely false
Yawn…oh America…smh
Eclipse didn’t do as well internationally because of the World Cup and domestically because it was summer. November seems to be the magic month for these films. Don’t underestimate the so called chicks going to flicks…just look how The Help did.
I’m happy to see a movie do well. I loved these books (yes, I’m admitting it to the world), but these movies are terrible. I’ll still go see it. Pathetic, I know. The studio needs to realize that the fans aren’t obsessed with Kristen, Rob and Taylor, they are only excited for the CHARACTERS they play.
Every week when I watch The Vampire Diaries, I wonder what these movies could have been with good writing (Julie/Kevin) and EXCELLENT acting like on TVD (that entire cast would blow the doors off the Twilight cast). They could’ve made even more money off of them and not been the butt of every joke. I nearly fell out of my chair when Melissa Rosenberg was interviewed at the premiere and the yahoo reporter gushed about the “beautiful and well-written dialog” that Melissa has created. I don’t know how she kept a straight face while saying that.
That said, I’m happy to see any movie finally do huge numbers.
I’m still trying to absorb the fact that she writes for Dexter. It’s like night and day.
Someone in Hollywood needs to jump on the Morganville Vampire series! This would make an EXCELLENT TV series, but movies would be just as good. It’s not the ‘same old, same old’ vampire crap at all. And there’s plenty of material there to work with.
Nothing says a great movie like an 80+ year old male trying to seduce a teenager and all the 40+ year old women glassy eyed.
one of the reasons for the lowered predicts is that this book is a very divisive one with many (safe to say half if not more) fans hating it and that backlash is expected to fall onto the movie as well
Well, remember when Goethe released the final novel of the “The Sorrows of Young Werther” trilogy? Lotte and Albert both were vampires by then, and the werewolf Fraulein von B. was threatening to kill everyone. Werther had to make a choice and of course half the fans agreed with his decision and half the fans hated it. Stephenie Meyer is just dealing with the fan dynamics writers have experienced for centuries.
I haven’t seen any of the Twilight movies or read the books (I’d wager that MOST of the people expressing hatred toward the franchise haven’t either), but I can’t help feeling that a lot of the hostility is because its popularity is driven by young females rather than young males. I think it’s great that young girls are showing that they can support a massively successful film franchise on their own. If this were young males, there wouldn’t be the same hostility. It’s not as though fanboys don’t like crap: those last three Star Wars Movies, everything Zack Snyder does, professional wrestling, and any male-centric superhero movie has at least some fanboy supporters no matter how bad it is. Their taste can be shitty as well, but no one calls them dumb the way they do the fangirls who like Twilight. Hollywood should start catering to these fangirls the way they do fanboys. They’ve proven they are a powerful financial demographic.
Uhm, no. It’s mainly because a 100 year old vampire stuck in the body of a 17 year old male stalks and is obsessed with a 17 year old female. The message it sends to young adults is “It’s ok if he stalks you and tries to control your every move…it’s romantic!” Fuck THAT.
Eh, the whole ‘creepy old man’ argument doesn’t actually make much sense. He is not old, he is undead. Vampires raise the somewhat existential question: what is aging? But I agree that he is hella creepy.
Well said.
At least this means only one more movie and then its done..
This movie make very high number like 148 million maybe.
Summit is low balling this on purpose so that they don’t jinx themselves. They know damn well it’ll make more than New Moon. I’m guessing between $145-$150 million, at the very least. But if it beats Harry Potter’s opening record…I have to admit, even as a fan of the Twilight series, I’ll be pissed.