For some strange reason, I thought at least one Big Media mogul would use this week’s UBS Annual Media and Communications Conference to reset investor expectations about the Industry. I waited for someone to say that it’s time for execs to stop licking their wounds from the last decade’s disastrous mergers and recessions and to start launching dynamic job-creating initiatives. I even expected someone might hint at a transformative deal that would expand the digital world’s supply of quality news and entertainment. The timing seemed right for all of the above since most of the CEOs noted that their companies are flush with cash and expect much more to flow their way in 2012, especially from the quadrennial advertising jolt provided by political campaigns and the Olympics. (Forecasters said that total domestic ad sales will be up anywhere from 3.2% to 4% in 2012.) Instead, the moguls mostly ladled out the same thin gruel they delivered throughout this year including their last round of earnings calls. They’ll collect additional revenues by syndicating content to digital streaming services. Or by demanding retransmission consent fees from pay TV providers. And returning cash to investors through dividends or share repurchases. hard to work up enthusiasm about such unimaginative strategies.
While the overarching themes of this year’s conference sounded a lot like last year’s, there was one important difference: Big Media isn’t afraid of Netflix anymore. At last year’s confab, moguls wondered publicly whether they should license TV shows and movies to the fast-growing company that seemed poised to become a gatekeeper to the promised land of Internet video. But Netflix CEO Reed Hastings packed the main auditorium at the Grand Hyatt New York by asking investors to forgive him for the pricing blunder in July that destroyed his company’s aura of invincibility — and resulted in a 76% decline in its value. Meanwhile, media moguls embraced Netflix because it’s now an important customer for their content. Even Time Warner’s Jeff Bewkes retreated from his comment last year that Netflix was like the Albanian army trying to take over the world. The streaming service “is our friend,” Bewkes now says. News Corp COO Chase Carey called Netflix a great venue for Fox’s series 24, which had been hard to syndicate. And CBS’ Les Moonves says that Netflix is “more friend than foe. We’re rooting for them to expand.”
But moguls still disagree about whether Internet video will upend traditional media, an issue that’s taking on new urgency as tech powers including Apple, Google, and Microsoft step up their efforts to find a place in people’s living rooms. Hastings says broadcasters will be big losers in a few years as viewers flock to Internet-delivered shows that address narrow, personal interests. “To some degree we’ll look at broadcast in 20 years as being like [telephone] party lines,” he says. Verizon CEO Lowell McAdam also believes Web video will appeal to pay TV customers, possibly leading many to cut back on conventional cable or satellite services. “The jury’s out, but I do believe there’s a place for over-the-top” — jargon for a digital alternative to traditional pay TV — he said. “That model has yet to be determined and I hope we’ll be a player in that.” By contrast, Moonves sees broadcast TV growing ever stronger as audiences use DVRs and VOD, and in some cases old-fashioned antennas, to watch more of the major networks’ shows. Viacom’s Philippe Dauman echoed that it’s premature to count the Big Media old guard out. “We spend about $3B a year on programming. No one spends more than we do, and we’re going to grow that.”

It is astounding to me that Big Media is run by a panoply of cowards. No one willing to create or take any chances. That doesn’t mean you take bizarre chances or chances without calculation, but how many remakes do we need?
Take a risk, create something great, and you’ll have mode money than Midas.
“But moguls still disagree about whether Internet video will upend traditional media…”
Exactly. Because re-arranging the deck chairs worked so well for the Record Industry.
Great article, David.
I believe the premise is true but glad the playing field open to “someone” to come in and snatch that opportunity to innovate this lack-luster flatland of media scorched earth.
The chairman of our studio does not know how to use a computer nor how to retrieve messages on his cellphone. His assistant prints out all his e-mails and does phone retrieval. Here is the industry leader for the future.
The red light has been flashing for over a decade with regard to “new media” and, of course, the example of the music industry should have brightened the light, but the “moguls” shined on the threat. Greed was a part of the equation since they were afraid of creating a licensing model for new media; so, they instead opted to use a litigation strategy against all “piracy” etc.
And then they run to the government for cover.
When Wall Street slicks and shiny agents and myopic media moguls and mad advertising agencies started seeing themselves as “Creative” it was just a matter of time before the creative process became just a big pot of grey sludge.
The writing is on the wall, Big Media:
“Hastings says broadcasters will be big losers in a few years as viewers flock to Internet-delivered shows that address narrow, personal interests.”
And what it says is:
“PERCHANCE he for whom this bell tolls may be so ill, as that he knows not it tolls for … and therefore never send to know for whom the bell tolls; it tolls for thee.” …John Donne
Any one naive enough to think a media exec is gonna layout his or her business strategy for the world to see has no knowledge what so ever about how business – especially the media – works – these folks are the sharks sharks – smart as they come – that’s why despite countless technological innovations they still exist and thrive -
Spot on…these guys aren’t going anywhere…the biggest success from the revolution in music industry was Justin Bieber who got started on youtube but quickly signed to the “dinosaur” music labels that are supposed to be going out of business…yeah, right…his career sky-rocketed when he hooked up with these old-school technophobes…don’t drink the web 2.0 kool-aid folks…nothing has changed.
Did you just say nothing has changed in the record industry?
Yes, I’m sure the moguls have set up secret bunkers buried in the Hollywood Hills with crack teams of creatives and executives firewalled off from the rest of the agencies, networks and studios in town, busily building the new models that will sustain these companies far into the future.
This secrecy explains, of course, why all the people still in public view and in regular meetings across town have no idea how social media works, how new media works, cannot imagine in any way,shape or form how things are changing and have no interest in anything but sustaining the status quo — except for slapping a link to a Facebook page onto what they already know how to make.
“That model has yet to be determined and I hope we’ll be a player in that.”
I think this quote is actually representative of the entire industry.
ijoe are you thinking its still 2001?