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BREAKING… EXCLUSIVE: Hollywood was buzzing early this morning over the first set of tracking numbers for Lionsgate’s film series The Hunger Games. With 23% ‘First Choice’ and 54% ’Definite Interest’, those are numbers every film studio can only dream about. One studied provided me with a guesstimate that the first film based on the Suzanne Collins bestselling books could open to $70+M — which would make this bigger than the the Twilight debut. “It’s every bit as strong As Twilight and, numerically, stronger,” one rival studio told me this morning. Seasonality may play a factor because The Hunger Games is opening in March, not summer. “But the numbers, while they definitely skew to young females, look strong across all quadrants.” Said another studio: “It’s a great start.”
These huge numbers now justifies Lionsgate pulling out all he stops in terms of promoting the movie. Immediately, author Suzanne Collins endorsed the film on the official Facebook page:
Dear Readers,
I’ve just had the opportunity to see the finished film of The Hunger Games. I’m really happy with how it turned out. I feel like the book and the film are individual yet complementary pieces that enhance one another. The film opens up the world beyond Katniss’ point of view, allowing the audience access to the happenings of places like
the Hunger Games control room and President Snow’s rose garden, thereby adding a new dimension to the story.Director Gary Ross has created an adaptation that is faithful in both narrative and theme, but he’s also brought a rich and powerful vision of Panem, its brutality and excesses, to the film as well. His world building’s fantastic, whether it be the Seam or the Capitol. It’s amazing to see things that are suggested in the book fully developed and so brilliantly realized through the artistry of the designers.
And, my God, the actors. The cast, led by the extraordinary Jennifer Lawrence, is absolutely wonderful across the board. It’s such a pleasure to see how they’ve embodied the characters and brought them to life.
So I’d like to sincerely thank all the many people who devoted their time and talents to the film, especially producers Nina Jacobson and Jon Kilik, and the excellent teams at Color Force, Larger Than Life, and Lionsgate.
I hope you enjoy the film!
Suzanne Collins
For more estimates listed by title, see box office results here...
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I think it’s because these books are actually really good…
I’m calling 400-500 million first picture, but I think my projection is low. Nina Jacobson already spearheaded the “Diary of a Wimpy Kid” franchise to success. The Hunger Games is an even bigger series. The world will indeed be watching March 23.
The first book is good. The second is readable. The third is… Well, let’s just pretend it doesn’t even exist.
The budget for THG was $75 million. The budget for Twilight was $39. I feel like that’s being left off in the continual comparison of these two films.
Budget doesn’t matter when every single directorial decision was a bad one… When the cinematography was worse than a weekly TV series… And oh yeah — when the actors are utter crap. But you go ahead and tell us how Twilight is being unfairly compared to this.
Dr. Jones, it’s pretty obvious that budget does matter when we’re talking about profit. Twilight tracking similar to Hunger Games with half the budget is significant. And I agree that Twilight was not a good movie.
Hasn’t bothered?
Of course budget matters. Twilight spent less and as such it was easier to make a profit. THG cost more and has to make more to do the same. This isn’t about how good a film is, it’s Econ 101.
It has more than twice the budget and they’ve spent a mint on advertising on top of that so I would hope it opens higher than the Twilight debut.
Bigger budgets doesn’t necessarily equate to great tracking….. JOHN CARTER anyone?
And John Carter is setting itself up to be a giant disappointment. Kate’s point is that if you invest a lot of money, you need a high gross to make a profit.
Boy, theyre really hyping this to be twilight 4 aren’t they? It won’t work. Lol. I get the feeling when they do these ‘twilight,’ comparisons, they do it hoping people assume the entire BILLION trilogy, instead of what they’re actually referring to, which is the first Twilight movie which NO ONE expected to do as well as it did. Yes, thru word of mouth that the 3 leads more than captured the characters, it went on to become huge. So in that regard, I think it’s possible that hunger games could equal or top the first twilight, because while it was surprisingly successful, it wasn’t insane…no one knew the leads and it had to get word of mouth going before it made its profit. But the implication that it will be the Twi TRILOGY all over again, is laughable.
I predict big first weekend (around 50-60 mil.) based on huge marketing campaign, good second, also based on that, and that’s it. The movie will do most of the business in those two first weekends.
Cross-over appeal is bigger than Twilights, but among young people. I can’t imagine 30+ beeing interested in this, both male and female, specially older males(while Twilight audience consists of young and old females).
I just doesn’t seem like it will be a huge phenomenon. It would show by now. All I see is marketing, marketing, marketing.
I think you’re in for a surprise. I know lots of people well beyond 30 y/o ready for this, esp if it’s well done. The dystopic world-building, political themes, survivalism…very appealing to 30+ men and women.
But it’s about kids. People over 30 don’t typically give a shit about kids in movies.
I’m 28 and I’m probably going to see this AT LEAST twice. Once opening weekend, and then the next weekend when my 28 year old college buddies meet up for a reunion the week after. I know I’m not 30, but I’m in that generation. I will say this though: the split among my friends who adore Twilight and those of us who adore THG is about the same, and yes, there is cross over. You know, it’s possible to like BOTH franchises. Why all the hate?
Everyone I know who wants to see this movie is over 30. Hell, my parents are in their 60s, they both loved the books and can’t wait for the movie. I don’t think it’s just a teenager thing…
Don’t under-estimate the “under 30″ group; extremely media savy, communication connected, etc. THG will be a winner – for the 30+ and under. And… as for the ‘budgets’ (per Comment by Kate) & advertising, advertising has lots to do with it but unlike many failures, it’s “Smart, Clever & Memorable” advertising that will contribute/contributes to success.
I don’t see it being the pop culture hit Twilight is, but it will do well.
The trailer was underwhelming.
Going to have to second your upcoming surprise. My wife is over 40 and has gotten many people in their late 30s and well beyond hooked on the books.
I don’t know if you’ll see the same fervor as the Twilighters (and I’m okay with that) but you will see a much broader appeal. I had to be dragged to see Twilight and groan whenever its on cable. I am actually looking forward to The Hunger Games, and I haven’t even read the books yet.
I didn’t mean all 30+ are not interested. I would like to see how movie fares among male fan base (as in comic book fans and stuff like that who are driving force behind these action franchises).
The movie will be big for sure, but not in a way to make all sequels make huge amounts of money.
Try a no-show. Men aren’t interested in female YA fiction. At any age group.
Wrong.
I’m over 30 and I’m interested in this. I think it’s going to be huge in a global way.
Yeah…don’t be so sure. I’m 33 and I loved the books and have recently gotten my hubby to read the books. He took them to work and found out most of his co-workers have read them and are anticipating the movie just as much.
It’s definitely not just a teenager thing.
I’m 50 and I read these books when they came out. I think you don’t really understand the cross over appeal is because of the relationships. I can’t wait to see the film!
I am 43 and plan to see it opening weekend. I read the book so if my son asked to read it I would know the content. I loved all three. I am getting a babysitter for him and my husband and I will be in the seat on opening weekend.
I can’t be the only one.
The marketing’s done a great job of emphasizing the film’s action quality rather than the romance. I’ve heard it could reach $80M on the first weekend.
Thanks to Terry Press, why isn’t she running a studio???
Males will come on the second weekend depending on the word of mouth.
They are saying it’s opening bigger than the first Twilight with a tracking of 70 million opening? Uh….the first Twilight opened at 70 million or 69.8 million…..same thing.
yeah but they spent waaay more on THG which means it was harder to make that much of a profit.
I wish THG success for its first film. I do hope print media would stop comparing the first Twilight movie w/ this film. Twilight was filmed as an indie w/ low budget & expectations while THG has double the budget and tons of ads. I’m glad that Twilight did extremely well in the long run and I hope THG will have similar success.
With the huge amount of money they’re spending in promoting it there is no surprise here. Not impressed.
Because spending gobs of money ALWAYS equals success *ahem* John Carter, Cowboys and Aliens, The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo *cough*
I don’t like comparisons with Twilight. That Twilight thing will get more money simply because there were thousands of twihards who came 10 times to see the movie and to see Robert Pattinson. Hunger Games are not like the boy-bands. There won’t be crazy fans who will go 15 times to see Jennifer Lawrence. People will go to see the movie itself. But it won’t get 300 millions. 70 millions opening week end will be great.
It drives me nuts that something has to be the “next harry potter” or the “next twilight”. Why can’t it just be the NEXT GOOD MOVIE? All three are based on a popular book series, and that’s it.
I kind of agree. I mean, Hunger Games deserves to be it’s own great franchise, but it does bug me that people say that it’s the “next Twilight”, because Hunger Games are so much better than Twilight. To me it’s kind of an insult to compare them to Twilight.
The Hunger Games is a trilogy. So why not compare it to Star Wars? If I did I would say Star Wars is better.
nothing could be the next harry potter… NOTHING.
This will blow away stupid Twi. There’s nothing boring about THIS story and I’m sure it will be beautifully brought to the screen. I hope they break records!
Both my husband and I are definitely 30+ and read these books after our teens couldn’t stop talking about them.
Unlike Twilight the series is well written and has many layers. Our entire family is looking forward to film and its sequels. In addition we know many other adults who also read the series and are anxiously awaiting the films.
I think that this film and its sequels are going to be huge, even bigger than the industry is projecting.
I neglected to add early on in this column that unlike Twilight, THG would appeal to a vast number of the 30+ market; based on the current BUZZ I’ve heard and read to date.
LOL. Don’t believe this for a second.
THG well written??? Well, the pacing is good and the narrative is good. But the story is awfully similar to Battle Royale which preceeded it by a decade. In fact, not only is the premise the same, but so is the twist. . . This is BR: kids forced by an authoritarian regime to fight to the death until only one remains and where the romantic leads find a way to trick the system and both survive. Gee where did Suzanne Collins ever get her idea????
I am so excited for this movie. Months ago people said this wouldn’t even begin to stack up against Twilight numbers, but this has so much more potential. The quality of this film and the books its derived from will speak for itself. I am so excited to see Gary Ross’ work and how well this movie performs.
Dear author, have you achknowledged your massive debt to Battle Royale?
Disagree w comment on interest being for young only. Many 40+ men and women read all the books and are rabid fans. Probably started with responsible parents checking out for kids and then spread word of mouth because so good – Harry Potter meets Dragon Tattoo itch scratched. Love this news for the very deserving producer Nina Jacobson.
I don’t know about the women, but including men in the demo? Ridiculous. Men know better than to get anywhere near this tween-fangirl focused female YA fiction crap. This has Twilight written all over it, only with some more violence. Men will do what they always do with this stuff – stay far, FAR away unless the significant women/girls in their lives drag them to see the films in a theater against their will.
Firebrand–get a life. Seriously. You are commenting in the middle of the night that men don’t like female YA fiction. Instead of wasting your time, why not pick up the first book and see what it actually is?
People across the board, incl. men of all ages, love these books. Because they are great. If you are so ignorant to comment without even giving them a shot, then stick to whatever else you have no life doing as obviously you don’t have a real career since you are commenting at that hour.
There don’t need to be any comparisons made between Twilight and THG, and not because the prod budget and P&A are higher. These cant be compared because Twilight is a soap with bad acting and THG is a film with an actual premise.
Ridiculous comment. Twilight indeed has a premise and a plot. Just because you don’t like it or find it silly doesn’t mean it’s a movie about nothing.
May it be a huge success. The books are fantastic and Nina Jacobson is one of the truly good people in this industry — classy, smart, and decent. She deserves all the success in the world.
I am in my 40s, as is my husband. We are both eagerly awaiting this film as are many of our friends in the same demo group. Lots of people have been mesmerized by these books. Much more broad based than Twilight…
I don’t know why it is necessary to slam Twilight in order to tell me how great Hunger Games is. Agree that they will both be successful but don’t slam one to build up the other.
Not to mention, DUDES will actually want to see it and dig it. Meaning, franchise should be bigger than Twilight.
Yes Jennifer is something us guys will go see. I’m looking forward also for who is going to be Johanna.
NO, men will not see this. Just because it has more violence doesn’t mean it isn’t any less Twilight-esque. When The Avengers and The Dark Knight Rises come out, THEN you will see the force of the male demographic. Not for this tween crap.
“The force of the male demographic?”
Dude, calm down. The Hunger Games’ success won’t castrate you.
I’ve already got tickets to see it opening night and I’m going with my brothers. Loved the books. And for the record, I got my highly suspicious girlfriend to read them, who also ended up loving them.
I already got my tickets. Going in a group of 10 people on opening night. We are all in our 30s, mixed group of men and women, we all read and loved the books. Most anticipated movie amongst my friends since…I can’t even remember the last time we were all so excited about a movie.
This isn’t Twilight.
Don’t compare it to Twilight.
It’s not a veiled Mormon allegory; it’s kids killing each other (with some crummy love story).
That is, this is something men are actually into as well. The opening will destroy Twilight numbers.
What men? Oh yeah, the same men who were into Twilight, I bet. All 5 of them.
I think it wouldn’t be crazy to see 80-100 million opening weekend.
And if it recoups production in 1 week, it’ll be at 120-150 by week 2. Couple with that with international grosses, it could earn out 500 worldwide.
And it’s being compared to Twilight because it’s a YA novel with a female protagonist. And because calling yourself the “next billion dollar franchise” helps stock prices.
THG should open at least $80M. If not, that will be a failure.