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EXCLUSIVE: Crazy speculation that Lionsgate’s The Hunger Games could gross $125 million its opening 3-day weekend beginning this Friday is more and more looking like reality. Even inside-the-studio estimates have cautiously been raised from $75M to $95+M. Already, the hotly anticipated film has pre-sold over a whopping 1 million tickets on big online sellers Fandango and Movietickets.com combined. Yesterday, the pic sold 83,000 tickets alone on Fandango. This movie based on the bestselling trilogy of novels by Suzanne Collins has turned Twilight-like huge for Lionsgate which was badly in need of a franchise. But unlike Twilight which attracted predominantly a female audience, The Hunger Games could attract younger males as well as younger and older females. Exactly how much the studio can gross for the first weekend depends on how many screenings each theater can pack into 72 hours by finding enough staff willing to work the extra hours and keep the pic running continuously. Tracking continues to amaze Hollywood which knows a blockbuster like this is great for the industry.
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What a flop…
IDK if the studio is saying 75-95, I’ll guess in that area. I’d hate articles like this to put the hype so high that if THG makes $96 million it’s considered under performing.
The world will be watching this Friday. Hooray for Nina Jacobsn and her team.
Me & my wife have our tickets for the 1st am show in IMAX on Friday. I think this film will be phenomenal & will definitely break some BO records
I’m a 30-year-old male. I already have tickets to see it three times opening weekend. Midnight on Thursday night (with 1 friend), then once on Saturday (with 10 friends) and once on Sunday (with 6 friends).
Thank you for the detailed account of your weekend and how many friends will be joining you at each showing. I was a little worried you weren’t going to fill all of us in.
Thank you for feeling the need to comment on Erik’s weekend instead of just leaving well enough alone.
I am going to see it on Saturday night with 2 friends and a third person who I really don’t know.
Erik, that sounds like a super fun weekend and I’d like to join. Call me at 555-
^^You forgot the last four digits of your phone number. Please repost, id like to go too
Hopefully it doesn’t suck, or your in for a pretty unbearable weekend.
“Hunger Games” may well be the biggest March opening ever.
I think a $150 million opening weekend is a realistic possibility.
And TV viewing this weekend may plunge to record-low levels for a weekend in March, even with the NCAA tournament.
I also hope that The Cabin In The Woods does well for them. I hear they are going to market it during Hunger Games. Smart idea.
This movie seems really derivative of many other movies, except with really young stars. Is that sort of how it was pitched? People too young to remember that its been done before.
When and where?
“…The Hunger Games could attract younger males as well as younger and older females…”
Like hell. Think Twilight demographics people.
No, it has broader appeal than that. I wouldn’t wish those Twilight movies on my worst enemy, but I’ve had opening weekend Hunger Games tickets for weeks.
And I suppose you’re the exception that proves the rule?
Or disproves, rather.
@firebrand Hunger Games appeals to a much larger audience. the books were actually well written, unlike twilight.
So what? It’s still female young adult fiction. A genre that has zero appeal to men. But you go on and keep thinking that men are going to show up and see this film willingly (as in not dragged there by their daughters/significant others) if it makes you feel better.
I work at a movie theatre and have been very surprised at the variety of people that have been coming in to pre-buy tickets. Certainly many are tweenage girls, but also a surprising amount of young guys and even college age and middle aged girls and guys, makes me think this thing could be truly huge.
“Middle aged girls and guys” Awww that’s cute, Jeff. Bit of an oxymoron but I guess that would be me. lol
I suppose any amount of men that exceeded 5 would be surprising to me. But I still wouldn’t count on men going to see this film.
With a far more talented cast, writer, and director, Hunger Games has MUCH broader appeal than Twilight.
Not to mention its far less female-oriented marketing.
I would include “far more talented composer” also, but Alexandre Desplat did Twilight, and he’s pretty much awesome.
I recall the marketing for Twilight tried this tactic too (less female-oriented marketing) and it had no effect, so they gave up trying (and rightly so). The Hunger Games people will learn their lesson and quit trying to appeal to guys who aren’t going to watch no matter what they do.
And so what if the Hunger Games has a far more talented cast, writer, and director? If I gave the next Transformers movie a better director, writer, and more talented cast, do you know what that would do to its appeal to women? ZILCH. Things like that are no guarantee of any kind of broader appeal, especially from a genre of books that panders to tween fangirls. It will crash and burn with men, as it should. The target demo should be women, and if they just stick to that, the Hunger Games will do spectacularly. No need trying to attract an audience that has no interest in seeing this tween fangirl oriented film, and is more preoccupied with the big summer tentpoles (The Avengers, The Amazing Spider-Man, The Dark Knight Rises, and Prometheus). You want to see men show up? You’ll see them show up with those flicks right there.
I bet all the people Lionsgate have recently laid off are stoked that all their hard work has finally paid off. Must be awesome to get a pink slip for years of service and dedication mere days before your company hits it big. Sleep easy knowing that all your hard work is going to allow some fat cat to own another home, luxury car, plane or any number of awesome things you will never be able to afford. Hell, you’ll probably be too busy trying to figure out to pay for health insurance, rent or food to even notice.
You guys aren’t thinking big enough. I think we’re looking at Titanic and Avatar territory.
The hell are you smoking that makes you think this will get anywhere NEAR those 2 films?
The movie will be huge (wide audience base)…but I have to laugh at the people claiming Avatar big or $150 mil box office. Right now, it is tracking at about $115 mil and that sounds about right in my opinion, give or take $10 to $15 mil. A lot of people in middle America (and even the coasts) are not down with a movie that features kids killing kids, no matter how good the story is or how engaging the actors are or any other reason. Believe it or not, those people do make up a percentage of the box office…enough to keep it from coming near Avatar or Titanic levels.
I work at a large state uni in the south no less and all my students are stoked to see this. The boys will go with the girls because it is kids killing kids, the girls have all already read the book (and passed it on to their moms and younger sisters afterwards.) This movie definitely has the potential to be at least as big as Twilight.
This thing won’t break Harry Potter numbers. It doesn’t have nearly the mass appeal that HP had in Europe. It’ll do $350mm here and $300mm internationally. HP did $650mm internationally. It’s going to be a blockbuster event but won’t touch HP numbers. More like Twilight numbers of $700mmish.
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hollows Part Two made $169 mil domestic opening weekend. Twilight Breaking Dawn (ugh) made $139 mil domestic opening weekend. The Dark Knight made $158 mil domestic opening weekend. So far, The Hunger Games is tracking $125 mil. Not sure why people are acting like this movie is going to blow the others out of the water in terms of business. Compared to the other films, Lionsgate may be spending more on advertising and then you have IMAX pushing 3:00 am shows. I’m sure The Hunger Games will be a massive success, but I am rolling my eyes a bit at all the claims that this will break box office records.
I agree that Hunger Games is not gonna reach the levels of Dark Knight, but Harry Potter and particularly Breaking Dawn dropped like rocks after their first weekends. I wouldn’t write off Hunger Games so soon.
I somewhat agree. The problem is, The Hunger Games is long and plodding in several points (I’ve seen the film). A lot of the critics are calling it good, not great, but somehow it is being spun as rave reviews…I do not think it is good enough that people are going to go to their friends and insist they see the film next week or do repeat viewings. So there is a very strong possibility it will drop similar to HP and Twilight. At the same time, I feel like The Hunger Games has a much wider potential audience than those two films.
EVERYONE is going to see this movie
My job being dependent on a successful film industry…welcomes any successful movie….and the Twilight franchise was a “blessing” that kept on giving…fingers crossed, I welcome the HG and wish equal success. HG age/gender demographics has a broader scope than Twilight and therefore the prospect of equalling or surpassing it is a possibility. However, movie audience size isn’t what it once was & the unusually large “fanatical fan” pool that Twilight had will be difficult to match. People go to the movies to see spectacles that need big screen presentation, entertain the kids, take a date and most importantly what their paychecks allow. Different strokes for different folks, so all this juvenile nonsense pitting actors, books & movies against one another is self-serving – only what/who I like is good – if you don’t & like something else – you suck! I am an equal opportunity “money taker” – give people what they want & they will pay. They paid to see Twilight and it appears they are willing to pay to see HG…Yeaaaaaahhh! looks like I’ll continue to be employed….at least for the short term (fingers crossed for the Avengers)
I was at the THG premiere in Paris with 3 friends (we’re all women). As we were almost the last of the line (there were about 2000 people queuing) and had to walk down all of it, we had more than enough time to see who the fans were. I would say it was 90% girls, all of them very young (teens and tweens). The rest were the boyfriends, and a few parents with really young kids.
Don’t know if I would take the premiere audience (who are generally star struck women regardless of the film) as an accurate sample of the people who will be viewing this over its run.
I am going to make a prediction. The news item says that John Carter seems to have been the biggest write down of any movie in history at 200 million. My prediction is that it will be at least ten and possibly as long twenty years before another movie has that big of a write down. I will make another prediction. If in the year 2062 there is published a compendium of the greatest box office disasters of all time a chapter will be devoted to John Carter.
I am going with 4 friends opening night!!!! can’t wait, the books are amazzzinngggg, very recomended