UPDATE, 6:30AM: Lionsgate shares are up around 3.8% in pre-market trading and are about +4.2% on the Paris stock exchange. For exhibition companies, Hunger Games’ $155M domestic opening buttresses the case that box office sales are back in 2012. Thus far, Q1 is +22% over the same period last year and, should end up this week at least +20%. B. Riley analyst Eric Wold notes that two weeks ago he raised his earnings estimates for Regal, Cinemark and Carmike assuming that overall box office sales for the quarter would be about +14%. “It now seems as though we were overly conservative,” he says. He estimates that Regal’s earnings per share in the quarter could hit 16 cents (vs. the consensus estimate of 8 cents), with Cinemark poised for 33 cents (vs. 26 cents forecasts), and Carmike at 28 cents (vs. 21 cents). The big question now is: How much will Hunger Games sales drop? Most films fall about 50% in their second weekend, but blockbusters are vulnerable to steeper declines. For example, Warner Bros.’ Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows, Part 2 fell 72% and The Dark Knight was -53%. Hunger Games will lose about 270 domestic Imax screens as they switch on Friday to Warner Bros’ Wrath Of The Titans. These theaters accounted for about $10.6M in ticket sales, or 6.8% of Hunger Games’ domestic total. Still, Cowen and Co analyst Doug Creutz says that the film will power through and ultimately generate $350M at domestic offices — adding “this could well be conservative.” He notes that Hunger Games sales held up from Friday to Saturday, which is “a decent indicator of long-term legs.” Creutz raised his estimate of Lionsgate’s earnings per share for the fiscal year to 41 cents from 17 cents. Lazard Capital Markets’ Barton Crockett predicts $58.7M for Hunger Games’ second weekend, ahead of Titans which he says will come in at $52.1M.


Saw Hunger Games yesterday; I think it will have a huge repeat business. It’s much more satisfying a movie than twilight and has young male appeal. Might not drop 2nd weekend as much as predicted given the demos. And adult men may come once March Madness ends
What this shows is that Twilight wasn’t a fluke. Audiences are hungry for tent-pole female-centric films.
I know a lot of women who were holding their breaths for the success of this film. All it takes is one female-led flop for Hollywood to decide not to make any more women’s movies for a few years. But no matter how badly John Carter flops, there’ll be tons of male-led action movies in the pipeline anyway.
Frankly I think it’s a disservice to call this a “woman’s movie”. This is a movie for everyone that just happens to star a woman.
I agree with you, milo. Audiences want a well-written story with talented actors, and ‘Hunger Games’ just happens to center around a female character. In my mind, this is proof that male audiences aren’t turned off from a movie that has a female lead if the character is crafted in a believable fashion and woven into a great plot.
That’s what worked in Dragon Tattoo as well. Katniss Everdeen and Lisbeth Salander aren’t female characters trying to behave like men. They’re intelligent women, who use credible talents and strength of spirit to persevere against overwhelming odds. They’re authentic and relatable, and audiences have responded to them.