AOL, Hulu, Yahoo, and Google’s YouTube are among the companies that provided so-called “newfront” presentations to advertisers this year — sales pitches urging them to divert to Web video platforms some of the billions that they plan to spend on conventional TV. Some major advertisers including GM and Samsung Mobile have said that they expect to do just that this year. But while that’s made this upfront season interesting, “we think it is still too early for online video to be meaningfully disruptive to TV,” Barclays Equity Research analyst Anthony DiClemente says in a report this morning. He notes that most viewers still flock to TV much more than the Web: The average person spent 153:19 hours a month watching the tube in Q4 — with another 11:44 hours going to time-shifted TV — according to Nielsen data. But they devoted just 4:34 hours watching Web video, and 4:20 watching videos on mobile phones. Things are changing slowly. Monthly television watching was down 46 minutes from the average at the end of 2010, more than made up by the 1:17 hours added to timeshifted TV. But Web videos were only up 11 minutes, and there was no change in video viewing on mobile phones. What accounts for this year’s expected $2.5B in digital video advertising, a 36% increase over 2011? That’s come “more at the expense of print ad budgets,” DiClemente says. He notes that more viewers will turn to Web videos as entertainment stars use the platform for their passion projects. But he still is unimpressed with the business model: It costs a lot to produce high quality entertainment, and “we wonder about what the eventual return on that investment could be.”


According to Nielsen Data!!!!! According to an outdated monitoring system that has 50.000 households predisposed to watch TV because they feel empowered to. It’s INSANE. Do we truly believe we can look at ROI based on 50,000 people. No one in the TV industry believes in the Nielsen system. No one. The advertisers do not believe in it either. But right now they have no other options.
We monetize our TV and those that make it, according to this outdated prehistoric system. When a show is canceled because of poor ratings, hundreds of people loose their jobs. If you believed Nielsen they what they are showing is a declining audience year to year. They have shown us an across the board decline of over 40 percent in the last five years. The Cosby show got audiences of 80 million. ER ten years ago, 40 million. Now 10 million is considered a hit. Pay TV is seeing a year to year decline. People, no matter how Nielsen spin, DO NOT WATCH ADD’S. And are nor more likely to WATCH ADDS after SEVEN DAYS. It’s bullshit. If people are flocking to TV, right now we have no way of knowing that.
As of 2006 Direct TV has 16 Million customers, lets dip into that audience for one week and see what they are watching. Or why don’t we look at the 800 Million people on Facebook and see what they watch week to week, around the world.
Nielsen is destroying our TV ecosystem. We can no longer afford to monetize a billion dollar industry based on the lives of 50’000 people. We have the technology to track what 300 million Americans do, minute by minute. And privacy went out the window with Facebook.
Seconded.
Thirded….
However, there is downside risk in admitting the Emperor is naked. Neilsen may not have the authority it once had nor the confidence of the industry is claims to measure….but it’s actually supporting and perpetuating the outdated system not ruining it. Once we adopt a new tracking system using Facebook or whatever electronic fingerprinting that’s now possible, it’s likely to snuff out whatever is left of the notion of Ad supported entertainment (at least in the model of the 30 second spot). ANd with it goes so much of the money our bloated industry has become dependent on. Will something take it’s place? Sure. But it will be leaner, flatter, pay to play. Less revenue = fewer fat jobs and lower pay.
Amen. I just wish you knew how to spell “ads.” But your point is well served: Nielsen reports are a DINOSAUR.
My story: We heard about people cutting their cable subscription so we decided to do it. It’s worked out great and now all of our friends are thinking about making the change, too. We see 100% of the shows we used to watch, and new ones, mostly for free, via Netflix, Hulu, Amazon Prime and network websites (e.g., CBS.com, NBC.com — not hard to find, people). Maybe once a week we pay $1.99 for a prestige show like Mad Men, but $8/month is certainly better than $130 for Time Warner Scamble. (Scramble? Shame-ble? Still working on that one.)
NOTE TO ADVERTISERS: COMMERCIALS ON STREAMING SERVICES ARE WORTH MUCH MORE THAN ON BROADCAST TV!!!! We are a captive audience; the viewer cannot fast-forward. They’re the only ads that people watch in their entirety, and I’m okay with watching them because there’s only one or two to sit through, rather than 8 in a row!
SPEND YOUR MONEY on online ads and you will MAKE MORE MONEY. And perhaps the studios will finally come clean and put more resources behind the space and start paying creatives their due share.
What I find so interesting about this article is that for most people I know these numbers are completely backwards. I only turn my TV on to plug my laptop into it to watch TV ONLINE! Someday advertisers will get that the younger generations realizes it is more cost effective for our time to watch 3 minutes of ads on Hulu than 18 mins during regularly scheduled AND we can watch whenever we want!
Does anyone know where I can get the Barclay report?
Yeah, but if Hulu/Netflix want to compete they have to be able to outpay the traditional media outlets (film,tv). That giant pile of money Netflix put into original content still isn’t paying off (we’ll see if it does in 2013). Hulu/Amazon/Netflix still rely on the majors to produce and market the content and then siphon off viewers after the fact. Home video didn’t kill the box office but it did cut into it’s overall profits in the 80′s. On-demand/online video is still an experimental medium and has not proven profitable to content providers. Remember without a writing job at Conan and Chris Rock Show in the 90′s along with Comedy Central, would any of us have ever heard of Louis CK? And he’s still making most of his content for major media, not online. Online isn’t a taste-maker yet. It’s moving that way, but these things take time.
Please stop saying online is still “an experimental medium.” You’re helping no one.
Not the studios that use that excuse (the same one they were using FIVE YEARS AGO during the WGA strike)to underpay their employees and not focus on building an ad model that returns enough money to support this branch of the industry.
Not the creatives and crew who are underpaid on all of this “experimental” content.
Not the advertisers who we all know are wasting their money by letting the Nielsens determine their ad rates.
Not the sites like Netflix and Hulu which are being underpaid for their services because the ad market is STILL low on their platform. If there was more money on the table and cable providers would agree to adjust their outdated business model (rather than see it go the way of AOL in 5-10 years), they could strike better deals with everyone and spread the money around.
So, as you can see…big loss for everyone until we GET OUR HEADS OUT OF OUR ASSES, stop lying and procrastinating and ass-kissing and figure this out.
Broadband in the United States is controlled by MSOs who are in bed with Hollywood. They both want to protect their profit margins. This is why Apple is having trouble signing content deals, no matter how much money they offer content providers. Hollywood is afraid of Apple (and others) usurping their padded model. Note Xfinity/Netflix net neutrality dust up.
Dear Analyst-
No-no, I get it. I’m brilliant. I was just playing along…