UPDATE, 2:10: PM: Netflix closed at $60.28, which is -25.02% – and its lowest closing price over the last 52-weeks. During the trading day it also touched $59.20, the lowest intra-day price for the last 52 weeks. Trading volume was unusually heavy, at 24.7M shares; that’s the fourth biggest trading day for Netflix over the last year. Netflix’s stock began its dizzying decline shortly after July 12, 2011 when it announced that it would split its DVD rental and streaming businesses — and require consumers to pay 60% more to receive both services. The day after that announcement it closed at $298.73.
PREVIOUS, 10:21 AM: Company shares are down more than 25% at midday, and are close to a 52-week low. The plunge follows Netflix’s earnings report last night that warned it could fall short of its hoped-for 7M gain in domestic streaming subscribers for 2012. The company also said it expects to report a loss in Q4 as it invests to expand in another overseas market. B. Riley’s Eric Wold downgraded Netflix to “sell” this morning — and reduced his price target to $50 from $80 — saying that he’s “concerned that [Netflix] is expanding too quickly within int’l markets as domestic competition ramps.” Others lowering their target prices include J.P. Morgan’s Douglas Anmuth (to $63 from $87), Barclay’s Anthony DiClemente ($80 from $95), Janney Capital Markets’ Tony Wible ($53 from $67), Credit Suisse’s John Blackledge ($100 from $115), and Susquehanna Financial Group’s Vasily Karasyov ($70 from $95). Bernstein Research’s Carlos Kirjner is sticking with his $71 target but says he’s “not convinced that the domestic streaming business is profitable enough or even that the current profitability path is sustainable to justify the company’s aggressive pursue of its global ambitions. To a large extent, what is really funding the global expansion is the ‘mothballed’ and declining DVD business, which generated the majority of contribution profits.” Netflix’ market value is down 13.5% so far in 2012, and -78.7% over the last 12 months.
Related: Netflix Shares Fall After It Forecasts Losses From Overseas Expansion

How about the fact that Netflix is going to let the Epix deal expire, has lost the Starz Play, and is pushing consumers towards streaming even though the amount of content they offer on streaming seems to be decreasing instead of increasing? At some point Docs, indies and 15 year old studio films isn’t going to cut it.
The Epix contract will end Netflix’s exclusivity arrangement-the overall deal IS NOT ending. That means Epix licensed material will REMAIN on Instant Watch, while Epix will be able to shop the package to other streaming outlets too.
Oh, I didn’t realize that. That is not quite as bad. Thanks for the insight.
Still issues for Netflix future, but not as bleak.
I almost signed back up with netflix this weekend but I looked at their streaming selections and found them lacking.
Thanks for this article and that comment to remind me to cancel my account. Much as I love old British crime dramas, I don’t love them THAT much.
Question (maybe a stupid one): If Netflix fails, is this good or bad for the industry?
If you’re a studio selling content, a Netflix failure would be bad. You want as many companies licensing your movies and shows as possible, whether it’s FX, Showtime, Redbox, Hulu, YouTube, or Netflix. Even if you’re competing with Netflix for eyeballs and dollars, you still probably want them to succeed since they represent an important way of getting people to pay for the content they enjoy. Regardless, with millions of paying subscribers, they won’t be failing any time soon.
It has more to do with profit they are making and less with subscribers, the problem is they lose money overseas starting up in new markets and this is going to continue for a while, what they do overseas affects the bottom line here in the US, and like the article says the DVD market in the US is funding the expansion overseas.
Netflix really blew it last year. They were considered an all in one service. That was their power. If you they didn’t have it on streaming then they’d likely have it in their 10 year plus stock of basically every DVD ever made. So they want to separate that and voluntarily compete with every other streaming service on an equal footing? They intentionally want to suffer the whims of the content providers. What was the CEO smoking?
It’s really unforgivable and even as a Netflix fan and former stockholder I do find joy in watching that stock tank, because that stupid decision needs to be punished for years, and years to come.
I just cancelled my Netflix membership today.
Lately, the turnaround time has increased and it also seems like they have fewer discs available to be sent out because more and more new releases have a “Long Wait” or “Very Long Wait” status. Redbox is easier and has won me over.
Notice things went south for them when they abandoned the DVD business. Still alot of people renting those shinny disc’s. Their streaming selection is old, stale and boring. This SVOD model cannot sustain itself unless the content gets considerable better and fresher. Those big advances the content guys are getting will slow. It was a nice ride while it lasted. Long term I don’t think SVOD is good for the industry. It will end up devaluing the libraries.
As a current streaming subscriber, I can only attest that MOST of what’s available is either old crap or new crap that never made it to theaters in the first place. It’s nice they have all kinds of TV shows on streaming, but unless you’re into that, and instead are looking to stream more mainstream feature content, you’re SOL. They have an ABUNDANT supply of incredibly shitty movies no one wants to watch anyway, but I don’t see how that helps their subscriber numbers any.
Raise your hand if you’re a former Netflix subscriber that would come back to the company if they offered the streaming & dvd service you once had OR at least didn’t do a 60% hike and did something more modest/something on a rolling basis?
I just raised my hand.
Is Netflix stupid, stubborn, stuck on this idea that their long term plans will reap the riches and we’re all just missing the big picture? To me, they’re cutting off their nose to spite their face. You messed up, you messed up badly and you’re not fixing it. Fix it.
If you compare plans they are really the only game in town, Hulu just doesn’t have the library Netflix has in both DVD and streaming, Amazon doesn’t have it ( I’m an Amazon Prime member) Wal-Mart’s Vudu isn’t really the answer and everyone else wants you to buy the movies, or rent on a per movie basis, Problem is people THINK they are going to get new releases on streaming, lol that isn’t going to happen so keep wishing, the media companies that own the studios control what Netflix gets and what they don’t, just don’t expect new releases in streaming anytime soon, it just isn’t going to happen.
I think it was Universal that was going to stream a new release as a try out, the price was $40 bucks lol