Shares are down 19% in post market trading following the disclosure that the company behind FarmVille and other popular Facebook games will report a net loss of as much as $105M in Q3 — a period when some analysts expected it to break even. Zynga “did not execute to our satisfaction,” founder and CEO Mark Pincus says. The company cited weakness in its Internet “invest and express” category, which includes games such as FarmVille and CityVille where players try to earn objects that they can display in the game. Zynga also says it will take an impairment charge of as much as $95M connected to its $180M acquisition this year of online multiplayer game site OMGPOP. In addition, Zynga is lowering its financial forecasts because it has taken longer than it anticipated to launch new games, and its web game The Ville could fall short of earlier expectations. “We’re addressing these near-term challenges by implementing targeted cost reductions in the fourth quarter and rationalizing our product R&D pipeline to reflect our strategic priorities,” Pincus says. He’s still optimistic about new opportunities for mobile games as well as “the opportunity for social gaming and the power of our player network of 311 million monthly active users. When we offer our players highly engaging content, they respond.” Zynga has lost more than 70% of its market value since it went public at the end of 2011.

I don’t understand the economics of the web. It used to be you did something or made something and got paid for it. Now it seems people are terrified of charging for things in case it affects the all important big traffic number. 311 million monthly users may sound impressive but not when you’re making such a big loss to provide them with a service. Far better to have 30 million paying subscribers and turn a profit.
Unless we want an economy based on charity where filmmakers and other IP creators beg for funds on Kickstarter, we need to get used to the idea of pauing for stuff again. And corporations need to stop encouraging consumers to believe they can get things for free by spending investors money on what is in effect a bait and switch con. Zynga is hoping to convert those 311 million into big money but consumers are too savvy. Look at Facebook. Their theory was lets provide a great free service, get people hooked and then work out how to make money. Trouble is, people loved the old free service and don’t like the intrusive ads, the sale of data or any of the things Facebook is doing to make money. Expect it to go the way of MySpace.
Things will only get more difficult as more people use phones and tablets to access the web. Case in point, I’m reading Deadline on my phone, with no ads and I’m not paying a subscription. Why should I get quality content for free? And how do you run a business, pay staff, generate income for investment, and turn a profit in this new world.
You can still make something and get paid for it, but you get paid a lot less per person, because people are used to getting stuff on the internet for free or very cheap, so you need a lot more customers. Virtual goods cost nothing to replicate once you’ve invested in the original item, which makes getting a big volume of customers very valuable. Once people get used to getting somethng for nothing, that expectation has been set and is very hard to change.
Ease of distribution globally is key – you need to seamlessly reach a huge audience. The internet means you no longer need costly brick & mortar stores but also means your potential customers’ attention is being captured by more competitors. The frantic race to drive up traffic numbers is because internet economies only work at high volumes.
Or, you can pursue an advertising based strategy, which is the opposite idea – not big volumes but niche targetting. That’s why Google AdWords work. Then you can run into privacy issues as Facebook as found out.
So, as ever, there are challenges to making a buck, just now the challenges are different.
I remember not too long ago when Zynga’s market value exceeded that of Electronic Arts. It’s kind of gratifying to see the “premier” maker of brain-dead cookie-cutter cow-clicker games take such a dive. Crappy product, and now an aging business model.
This issue of a company not being able to get a fee for something has been with us since the start of the Internet run-up. It always seemed to me you could start a company and give away free pancakes, and you get lots of ‘users’. So you have 40 million people eating your free pancakes. And how is that a business?
The end of FACEBOOK is near!
The worst and dumbest games on the net. Good bye, Zynga.