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The studio could take the hit in its Q4 report, Lazard Capital Markets’ Barton Crockett predicts this morning, which might result in a 6 cent per share loss for the quarter vs his previous estimate for a 30 cent profit. Crockett figures that Rise Of The Guardians will end up generating $130M at domestic box offices, plus $276M overseas (similar to How To Train Your Dragon) with sales of 4.9M DVDs (compared to 6.1M for Megamind). What’s more, the analyst says that the “muted performance” of Guardians “is prompting us to pare-back box office assumptions for the rest of the 2013 slate” which includes The Croods, Turbo and Mr. Peabody And Sherman. He figures each film could generate $160M domestically and $325M abroad. That would take earnings to about 98 cents a share in 2013 — down from his previous forecast for $1.52 — even though the new films will cost less to produce, and Turbo could generate lots of licensing revenue from a toy deal with Mattel. If DreamWorks has another money-loser in 2013 “investor confidence could be rattled,” Crockett says. “We see enough risks in a slate thick with new franchise attempts to believe the more prudent course, for now, is to maintain a modest movie outlook.”
DreamWorks Animation Could Take $45M Write-Off For ‘Guardians’: Analyst
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Jeffrey has two options to save this company:
1. Step down and allow himself to be replaced by a younger visionary. Right now it is abundantly clear to WallmStreet that this is a one-man company, and it’s a huge reason why a shortsighted and foolish bet like Guardians snuck through.
2. Sell to Comcast at a premium (and go run a chunk of that business).
Otherwise the company will die on the vine. Even now they have some valuable franchises but Jeffrey seems to only understand the old Disney models of exploiting them. Where is the innovation at this company that we saw at Marvel Studios in the 2-3 years before they were aquired?
DWA is fixable but right now it’s a sell and I would not be shocked to see it fold in the next 12 mos.
They’ll use that partnership with Shanghai Media Group to make the film huge in China. That will bail them out.
Make a bad movie? Write it off.
Such a terrible pity that American audiences will gobble up utter dreck like the latter Shrek films – replete with fart jokes and pop-culture references which date the movies a month after they leave the cinema – and ignore an absolutely wonderful gem of a film like ROTG. Beautifully written, wonderfully acted, and beyond stunning to look at.
You just keep gobbling up the crap, American audiences. Keep chowing down on the absolute rubbish you are fed, and we’ll continue to be fed rubbish.
It is so depressing for modern cinema that BO in the States is the barometer for success.
I agree. Even though Rise of the Guardians was targeted more of towards a younger audience, it is absolutely stunning. The animation is absolutely beautiful if you really pay attention. The soundtrack is fantastic and is so well done, that even when listening to it without the movie, it tells the story by itself. The plot could be a bit better done, by the background stories of all the characters is by far intriguing. Williams Joyce, an author whose books the movie is based on, does a fantastic job on making each and every character unique. Since when was the last time you saw a Tooth Fairy besides some little fairy-lady with a tutu, tiara, and magic wand. It never fails to astound me the thought that went into each and every character. Stop and think about it for a second. How lovely this movie is. I think it’s awful people can’t stop and see that sometimes. It is a truly unique movie and if you go and watch it, pay attention to all the details. The animation. The music. The characters. Everything.
What I don’t get is how a movie that will generate over $400 million in box office alone is such a financial dud. They have to be able to come up with a way to keep down costs. This is insane.
Guardians just passed $70 million at the domestic box office. How can it possible make it to $130 million ?
It is essentially dead after Dec 31.
those numbers he’s predicting are more than double what it’s at right now, and it’s been out for 4 weeks. He’s saying over 400 million international — it’s at $190 international. who’s he think he’s kidding?
The problem is that films like ROTG is that they are too dark for family audiences. As an adult, I don’t mind it as much, but when you are relying on a family audience and spending over $150M to make it, you need to have a lighter tone or you won’t get repeat business or good word of mouth.
Even the most sophisticated Upper East Side bred 7 year old brat was turned off by the art direction in this movie. Sure, it’s pretty to look at for the adults, but not for kids.
So unless your kid was a gigantic fan of the books, chances are they weren’t interested in this movie. Dreamworks makes movies for mass consumption. They are not Fox Searchlight.
What a huge mistake.
How did Pixar do it?
Yeah $130 mil is wishful thinking.
The tragic thing about ROTG is that it just had a horrible concept. And absolutely no amount of marketing, promotion or merchandising could ever get past the fact that short snippets of the movie made it look like a train wreck. But the sad thing is that once you see it, it’s actually an amazing film with fun characters and moments that are actually genuinely moving at times. I really loved it, certainly more than Pixar’s output of the last couple of years but whenever I see a trailer or poster for ROTG I feel like I’d really hate a movie where santa and a rabbit team up.
Even if it only gets to $100 million in the U.S. (and it’s at $72 million now — and was No. 2 at the box office this weekend after a month in release, so it’s not exactly dead yet; $100 million isn’t unreasonable), how is $375 million+ worldwide a bomb, even at a $145 million budget?
The problem is it not making the half-billion they expected/wanted it to, not that they’re going to lose money. But that’s what happens when you let Wall Street run everything.
Shame, it was a fine film that my daughter and I both loved.
It’s about shareholder’s expectations. They pump it up so much using numbers from years back and it’s impossible to meet them again. Time to reassess the biz model. Kind of like when HE went down the tubes. It’s about having a good script and taking time to make sure they can market an appealing movie. Stop green lighting piles of crap. It looked awful from the get go. Didn’t the testing say so???
I can actually see this film hitting the 130 mill maybe past that because of Christmas break and the fact that rise isn’t just a Christmas movie, sure Santa is there but the film.isn’t about Christmas but Easter and the moment a child loses a tooth so it can last awhile in theaters especially since word of mouth is spreading and more and more people are going to see it, internationally I expect a lot more than his estimates and that will warrant a sequel since del tori and dreamworks expressed interest in a sequel
Same thing that happened to ROTG happened to megamind. Poor marketing, didn’t love up to expectations (though succeeded) at te box office, dream works gave up on it and moved on to something new, when there are millions demanding more megamind.
To compare Dreamworks to Pixar is like comparing early Disney to Warner Bros. Disney was the master of how beautiful animation and storytelling can be, while Warner Bros. were the masters of lowbrow comedy. Though Dreamworks have many great franchises such as Kung Fu Panda, how to Train Your Dragon, Shrek and the like, dumping them to television before finishing a series is the same as “Direct to Video” Disney movies where the B team of animators get a shot. Dreamworks should capitalize on there strengths and follow them. After all it’s not “Make people believe” it’s make believe!