The holiday film appears to be a bigger disappointment than Lazard Capital Markets’ Barton Crockett imagined just a few weeks ago. He says today that he expects the studio to take a $96M write-down — more than double the $45M he predicted in mid-December, and close to the $109M that DreamWorks Animation took in 2006 for Flushed Away. Crockett now forecasts that the company will report a 44 cents-per-share loss for Q4, down from his previous prediction of a 6 cent loss. Crockett says that Rise Of The Guardians likely will end up generating $110M at domestic box offices and $210M overseas vs. his previous forecast for $130M and $276M, respectively. “While bulls will want to look past this write-off, the risk is that a second flop like Guardians could dramatically change sentiment,” he says. DreamWorks Animation shares are down about 2% in mid-afternoon trading, and more than 26% since early November.

Related: ‘Rise Of The Guardians’ Weak In Box Office Bow