FINAL BOX OFFICE: First Half Of 2014 No Growth From Year Earlier As ‘Think Like A Man Too’ Debuts With $29M+; ‘Jersey Boys’ With $13.3M

OPENING: Think Like A Man Too (SONY/SCREEN GEMS) to come in at No. 1 and around $29.2M as first predicted; Jersey Boys (WB) at No. 4 at $13.3M.

Image (8) box_office_weekend_3202008-12-22-1229966765__111124053707-150x150.jpg for post 7355586th UPDATE, MONDAY 3:16 PM:  The first half of 2014 is flat so far — as in no growth year from last year — up only .5% in terms of box office revenue. The summer box office so far is actually down around 15% this year as well so Transformers: Age of Extinction will be a welcome offering this weekend. One note is that last summer and last year both were revenue records, driven by such top hits as Hunger Games: Catching Fire, Iron Man 3, Despicable Me 2, and Man of Steel to name a few. This year is kind of seen as a transition year before sequelmania hits in 2015.

“Not every year can be a record-breaker, but we are always looking for that. Thankfully, we have Transformers and Planet of the Apes coming yet this summer. Collectively, the industry knows that 2015 is a tidal wave of box office coming next year,” said Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst for Rentrak. “There is no question that next year will be a big box office year. And this is kind of where everyone expected to be coming off of last year. No one wants to be down, but three weeks of great box office can redeem that 15% dip and turn it around pretty quickly. We have many more months to go. This is the most cyclical businesses in the world and it’s all product-driven. It’s a roller coaster ride.” Indeed, it is. Every weekend, every month, every quarter and every year.

To that point, this past weekend was down 39.4% from last year. For comparison, last year’s same weekend Monsters University and World War Z both opened to huge numbers $82.4M and $66.4M, respectively. As June 30 approaches (which truly marks the six month-mark), all eyes are on Transformers to kick the numbers up. This weekend, we had Think Like A Man Too opened to well under the first installment for Kevin Hart, director Tim Story and producer Will Packer this weekend with a final tally of $29.2M. The comedy was front-loaded this weekend and began falling off on Saturday night. Clint Eastwood’s Jersey Boys skewed much older than expected and only swung in with $13.3M this weekend. All moviegoing got hit a tad by the World Cup on Sunday.

The Top 20 chart follows:

1). Think Like A Man Too (SONY), 2,225 theaters / Per screen average: $13,142 / 3-day est. cume: $29.2M / Wk 1

2). 22 Jump Street (SONY), 3,306 theaters (0) / 3-day cume: $27.4M (-52%) / Per screen: $8,306 / Total cume: $109.9M / Wk 2

3). How to Train Your Dragon 2 (FOX), 4,268 theaters (+15) /  3-day cume: $24.7M (-50%) / Per screen: $5,792 / Total cume: $94.5M / Wk 2

4). Jersey Boys (WB) 2,905 theaters / Per screen: $4,585 /3-day cume: $13.3M / Wk 1

5). Maleficent (DIS), 3,450 theaters (-173) / 3-day cume: $12.9M+ (-30%) / Per screen: $3,742 / Total cume: $185.8M / Wk 4

6). Edge of Tomorrow (WB), 3,212 theaters (-293) / 3-day cume: $9.8M (-41%) / Per screen: $3,057 / Total cume: $73.9M / Wk 3

7). The Fault In Our Stars (FOX), 3,340 theaters (+67) /  3-day cume: $8.5M (-42%) / Per screen: $2,565 / Total cume: $98.6M / Wk 3

8). X-Men: Days of Future Past (FOX), 2,681 theaters (-361) / 3-day cume: $6.1M (-37%) / Per screen: $2,294 / Total cume: $216.7M / Wk 5

9). Godzilla (WB), 2,088  theaters (-1,022) / 3-day cume: $1.8M (-43%) / Per screen: $1,383 / Total cume: $194.98M / Wk 6

10). Chef (OPRD), 961 theaters (-141) / 3-day cume: $1.7M (-22%) / Per screen: $1,778 / Total cume: $16.8M / Wk 7

11). A Million Ways to Die in the West (UNI), 1,417 theaters (-996) / 3-day cume: $1.6M (-51) / Per screen: $1,130 / Total cume: $40.3M / Wk 4

12). Neighbors (UNI), 1,033 theaters (-863) / 3-day cume: $1.3M (-42%) / Per screen: $1,325 / Total cume: $145.7M / Wk 7

13). Blended (WB), 842 theaters (-739) / 3-day cume: $1M (-42%) / Per screen: $1,197 / Total cume: $42.3M / Wk 5

14). The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (SONY), 434 theaters (-248) / 3-day cume: $633K (-34%) / Per screen: $1,460 / Total cume: $199.5 / Wk 8

15). Million Dollar Arm (DIS), 444 theaters (-133) / 3-day cume: $$535K  (-33%) / Per screen: $1,205 / Total cume: $34.3M / Wk 6

16). The Rover (A24 FILMS), 608 theaters (-603) / 3-day cume: $481K (-594%) / Per screen: $791 / Total cume: $562K / Wk 2

17). Rio 2 (FOX), 310 theaters (-73) / 3-day cume: $413K (-1%) / Per screen: $1,333 / Total cume: $127.3M / Wk 11

18). Belle (FSL), 244 theaters (-94) / 3-day cume: $318K (-38%) / Per screen: $1,306 / Total cume: $9.18M / Wk 8

19). Divergent (LGF), 289 theaters (-47) / 3-day cume: $270K (-29%) / Per screen: $936 / Total cume: $150.1M / Wk 14

20). Ida (MUSICBOX), 133 theaters (+21) / 3-day cume: $258K (+5%) / Per screen: $2,021 / Total cume: $2M / Wk 8

5th UPDATE, MONDAY, 8:28 AM: Think Like A Man Too came in right around $29.2M for the weekend, although haven’t heard from Sony yet, but it’s obvious that it came in much lower than the $30M they “predicted” yesterday.  But, hey, a $30M headline sounds better than $29M and change though doesn’t it. Didn’t beat the first installment which came in at $33.6M and that’s what the real news is here. Clint Eastwood’s Jersey Boys also came in under too, from the $13.5M Warner Bros. thought it could meander, also as we predicted yesterday and it now looks like $13.3M. Everything was off just a smidgen from yesterday as movie going Sunday was flater than predicted. The final numbers chart will come later today.

maxresdefault4TH UPDATE, SUNDAY, 8:20 AM: Sony is weighing in with its No. 1 and No. 2 box office offerings and is expecting the high-end (as many of the distribs do the Sunday before the final numbers) for Think Like A Man Too with $30M, although the it really looks to shake out to more like $29M+ — well under the opening of the first installment of $33.6M. Ouch. The budget for Man Too is $26M+.  Sony said that social engagement was almost double that of the first installment. Indeed, it was (see below for those stats we did earlier). Also, the studio broke down the demo for the film — 37% male, 63% female, with 41% under the age of 30. No surprise there. Also, remember that Kevin Hart Tonight Show video clip which was at 8.5M view on Friday? It’s at 10.3M views now … and climbing (we have it below and it’s the laugh of the day).

The studio is happy (as they should be) about 22 Jump Street, which they estimate will gross the high end as well of $29M+. It should fall in between $28M-$29M+ tomorrow when the partying stops (it crossed $100M yesterday). The Sony/MGM picture will have taken in around $111M on a budget of $65M+ in two weeks time and is also kicking in a total of $38.2M overseas (in 30 territories so far) as they are dealing with finding dates around and after the World Cup. These are estimates with finals tomorrow and I expect Think Like A Man Too and 22 Jump Street will end up closer to each other.

3RD UPDATE, SUNDAY, 7:09 AM: The morning after for Sony/Screen Gems’ Think Like A Man Too looks more like $29.5M for the three-day (we expected $30M, give or take a smidgen) and Clint Eastwood’s Jersey Boys is tuning in at $13.5M (maybe $13.4M or lower) for Warner Bros. falling on a flatter note than expected. The movie based on the Broadway smash skewed much older than expected and opened in the No. 4 spot, and there has been some talk about whether it was the best time to bow or best release strategy for the pic. “We positioned the movie to

take advantage of the counter-programming through the summer,” said Warner Bros. distribution head Dan Fellman. “Most of the films in the marketplace were popcorn films. We had an R-rated musical, and we knew the film was going to play older and, if you look at it, 71% of the audience over 50 gave it an A but so did the over 25 year olds. I could have platformed it and gotten decent reviews but this is not what this was. We wanted to get a mainstream audience from coast to coast and we needed to get good word of mouth so I think it will end up in a very good place. This is a marathon not a sprint. We always knew that it would be challenged in the heart of the summer, and it was a risk worth taking. I think our mid-week days will be strong, maybe $1M a night, and we’ll end up in a good place.” The budget for this pic was said to be around $38M.

Sony ends up capturing, as also predicted, the No. 1 and No. 2 spots this weekend as 22 Jump Street had an arresting $28M to $29.3M in its sophomore frame, down 49% from the previous three-day. “It’s great to be No. 1 and No. 2. We have two great sequels and both are doing very well. Think Like a Man Too had a terrific opening number for us. There’s a lot of love for the ensemble cast, led by Kevin Hart,” said Rory Bruer, president of worldwide distribution for Sony. “22 Jump Street had an extraordinary opening (best opening of 2014 for a comedy) and an extraordinary hold. It’s doing really well around the globe right now. It’s definitely on track to be one of the biggest R-rated comedies of all time.”

But the question was answered: The Kevin Hart, Tim Story, Will  Packer sequel fell short of the big surprise opening of the first installment two years ago ($33.6M). This is not the first time that has happened this year as Rio 2 grossed about the same as the the first installment. This does, however, mark the second time this year that a director had two pics opening to No. 1. Director Story helmed the box office success Ride Along earlier this year while Phil Lord and Christopher Miller directed both The Lego Movie and 22 Jump Street. This also marks the sixth No. 1 opening for both Story and Packer.

Image (4) How-to-train-Your-Dragon_3201.jpg for post 731998At No. 3 is How to Train Your Dragon 2, by all accounts, will come in at around $25.3M for a total two-week cume of $95.1M for Fox/DreamWorks Animation and a weekend to weekend decrease of 49%, while Disney’s Maleficent rounds out the Top Five with a strong $13M+ for a total cume of $185.9M. The family film will have no problem surpassing $200M at this rate. It’s still in 3,450 theaters. That’s a quick snapshot. Btw, Jon Favreau’s Chef is also holding great for Open Road. Next weekend is Paramount’s Transformers: Age of Extinction and the Michael Bay film is expected to demolish everything in its path. Here’s the chart:

1). Think Like A Man Too (SONY), 2,225 theaters / $12.17M Fri. / $10.3M Sat. (-15%) / $6.9M Sun. (-30%) / 3-day est. cume: $29.5M / Wk 1

2). 22 Jump Street (SONY), 3,306 theaters (0) / $9.35M Fri. / $10.8M Sat. (+16%) / $9.1M Sun. (-16%) / 3-day cume: $28M to $29.2M (-49%) / Total est. cume: $111M to $112M / Wk 2

3). How to Train Your Dragon 2 (FOX), 4,268 theaters (+15) / $7.6M Fri. / $10M Sat. (+32%) / $7.7M Sun. (-23%) / 3-day cume: $25.3M (-49%) / Total cume: $95.1M / Wk 2

4). Jersey Boys (WB) 2,905 theaters / $4.6M Fri. / $5.16M Sat. (+12%) / $3.6M Sun. (-30%) / 3-day cume: $13.5M / Wk 1

5). Maleficent (DIS), 3,450 theaters (-173) / $3.96M Fri. / $5.2M Sat. (+31%) / $3.9M Sun. (-25%) / 3-day cume: $13M+ (-29%) / Total cume: $185.9M / Wk 4

6). Edge of Tomorrow (WB), 3,212 theaters (-293) / $3M Fri. / $4.19M Sat. (+39%) / $3.1M Sun. (-25%) / 3-day cume: $10.3M (-37%) / Total cume: $74.4M / Wk 3

7). The Fault In Our Stars (FOX), 3,340 theaters (+67) / $3.095M Fri. / $3.1M Sat. (+2%) / $2.3M Sun. (-27%) / 3-day cume: $8.6M (-43%) / Total cume: $98.7M / Wk 3

8). X-Men: Days of Future Past (FOX), 2,681 theaters (-361) / $1.79M Fri. / $2.5M Sat. (+43%) / $1.9M Sun. (-25%) / 3-day cume: $6.2M (-36%) / Total cume: $216.7M / Wk 5

9). Godzilla (WB), 2,088  theaters (-1,022) / $530K Fri. / $755K Sat. (+41%) / $565K Sun. (-25%) / 3-day cume: $1.8M (-45%) / Total cume: $194.9M / Wk 6

10). Chef (OPRD), 961 theaters (-141) / $480K Fri. / $780K Sat. (+64%) / $585K Sun. (-21%) / 3-day cume: $1.8M (-16%) / Total cume: $16.9M / Wk 7

2nd UPDATE, SATURDAY, 11:00 PM: Think Like A Man Too is now expected to take in around $30M for the three-day weekend, right in line with our predictions on Friday (yet again) after a softer than expected Saturday; it took in around $10.4M for a drop of about 14% for Sony’s Screen Gems. Moviegoing for Warner Bros.’ Jersey Boys rose only slightly on Saturday (15%) for a $5.3M gross so its total cume is closer to $13.7M (that’s if it drops 30% on Sunday). We’ll still have to see the percentage drop tomorrow.

In No. 2, of course, is 22 Jump Street (SONY/MGM) in its second weekend with a $10.7M or so take Saturday so it is expected to pull in about $29.65M (that’s with a 15% drop figured in for Sunday). That takes us to the No. 3 movie of the weekend: Fox/DreamWorks Animation’s How To Train Your Dragon 2, which by all accounts flew in with about $10.1M on Saturday so that will take it to around $25.78M (figuring in a 20% drop tomorrow). Rounding out the Top Five is Disney’s Maleficent which is estimated to have grossed $5.1M rising a higher than expected percentage on Saturday. Because of that, its three-day total now raises to $12.89M. That’s how it looks in tonight. Numbers may change in the AM, but shouldn’t change drastically.

UPDATED, SATURDAY, 7:42 and 10:45 AM: It appears that estimates are right around what we predicted for Sony/Screen Gems’ Think Like A Man Too and for Warner Bros.’ Jersey Boys as the picture (as mentioned last night) fell off pretty hard due to an older (much older) skewing audience. The only question for the weekend now is how will the Kevin Hart sequel compare to the fThink Like A Man Tooirst installment, which opened at $33.6M two years ago. Right now, it is estimated about $32M to $33.4M, depending on today. Sony said the budget was $24M but it was actually a little higher $26M+ — so double the first installment by all accounts.

Also, interesting that Think Like A Man Too has a little phenomenon going on moving into the weekend with a particular YouTube video — one with Hart on a roller coaster at Universal Studios Orlando from The Tonight Show which is flying with 9.5M+ views.

That’s probably due to two factors — the popularity of Kevin Hart and Jimmy Fallon’s supberb social media team. RelishMix also notes that Hart’s 15.2M Facebook fans and 10.8M Twitter followers are out in force spreading the word: “Kevin Hart’s additional superfan page on FB and Twitter are a social force.” Co-star Taraji Henson’s fan base off 5M FB and 2.6M Twitter followers are also pushing hard.

RELATED: Hot Trailer: Kevin Hart in ‘The Wedding Ringer’

Jersey-BoysNow a film on the other end of the spectrum, Clint Eastwood‘s Jersey Boys which saw a denouement as it became clear that it was playing older than previously imagined and did pretty much no business later into the late night. That pushed its cume down to the $13.8M to $14M+ range after looking it might play to high-teens earlier in the day. That’s a rough break for Eastwood as the budget was said to be around $38M.

22 Jump Street is a solid No. 2 in its second frame for Sony/MGM, dropping about 47% to take in anywhere from $30M to $32M for the three-day (more like $30M by all accounts, except for Sony which has it higher). Fox/DreamWorks Animation’s How to Train Your Dragon 2 will come in No. 3 with a 47% dip in its second weekend for a cume expected around $25M to $26.2M. Where 22 will pass $100M today, Dragon 2‘s total cume after this weekend will be just shy of that at $96M+. Also noteworthy: Jon Favreau’s Chef is still holding up pretty well at No. 10 for Open Road. Here’s what the chart looks like right now:

1). Think Like A Man Too (SONY), 2,225 theaters / $12.17M Fri. / 3-day est. cume: $32M to $33M / Wk 1

2). 22 Jump Street (SONY), 3,306 theaters (0) / $9.35M Fri. / 3-day cume: $30M to $32M (-47%) / Total est. cume: $111M to $112M / Wk 2

3). How to Train Your Dragon 2 (FOX), 4,268 theaters (+15) / $7.6M Fri. / 3-day cume: $25M to $26.2M / Total cume: $94.6M to $95M+ / Wk 2

4). Jersey Boys (WB) 2,905 theaters / $4.6M Fri. / 3-day cume: $13.8M to $14.4M / Wk 1

5). Maleficent (DIS), 3,450 theaters (-173) / $3.96M Fri. / 3-day cume: $12.7M (-32%) / Total expected cume: $185.6M / Wk 4

6). Edge of Tomorrow (WB), 3,212 theaters (-293) / $3M Fri. / 3-day cume: $9.85M to $10M (-39%) / Total cume: $73.9M to $74M+ / Wk 3

7). The Fault In Our Stars (FOX), 3,340 theaters (+67) / $3.095M Fri. / 3-day cume: $8.6M to $9M (-42%) / Total cume: $98.7M to $99M / Wk 3

8). X-Men: Days of Future Past (FOX), 2,681 theaters (-361) / $1.79M Fri. / 3-day cume: $6M (-39%) / Total cume: $216.6M / Wk 5

9). Godzilla (WB), 2,088  theaters (-1,022) / $530K Fri. / 3-day cume: $1.8M (-46%) / Total cume: $194.9M / Wk 6

10). Chef (OPRD), 961 theaters (-141) / $480K Fri. / 3-day cume: $1.77M (-21%) / Total cume: $16.8M / Wk 7

As it stands tonight, Sony will, indeed, capture the No. 1 and No. 2 box office spots with its two sequels this weekend: Think Like A Man Too is pulling in about $11.5M Friday for a three-day of around $32M to $33M followed by and its holdover 22 Jump Street which is on track to gross around $29M to $30M), dropping roughly 50% in its sophomore frame. This would mark the second time this year that a director had two pics opening to No. 1 — Think Like A Man Too‘s Tim Story whose first picture Ride Along opened to No. 1 in January and Phil Lord and Christopher Miller whose The Lego Movie opened to No. 1 in Feb. and 22 Jump Street which held that crown last weekend.  That’s the good news. The bad news is that Think Like A Man Too looks like it may open a tad bit under the first installment which grossed $33.6M in April of 2012 and on top of that, it’s kinda getting reamed by the critics but the CinemaScore is an overall A-.

movies-jersey-boys-stillMeanwhile, Clint Eastwood — the director who always delivers a quality film on time and usually under budget — saw his Jersey Boys with strong start on Friday bouyed by the East Coast moviegoers before it started to fall off a bit. Still the film based on the celebrated stage play of the same name should take in an estimated $14M to $15M this weekend after a $4.5M to $5M  Friday. It draws an older (some may say old but I don’t like to think of my age as old) audience demo. It also got an A- CinemaScore tonight.

Image (6) how-to-train-your-dragon__140415112956-275x142.jpg for post 714340Which leaves us with No. 3. No doubt about it, How to Train Your Dragon 2 from Fox and DreamWorks Animation is solidly in there to make about $25M+ this weekend, down 49% from the week earlier. The very well-executed film will be flying with $95M after the three-day. 22 Jump Street will be at around $111M to $112M after crossing $100M tomorrow. Rounding out the Top Five will be Disney’s Maleficent which should be at $185M after four weeks in release after pulling in $12M to $13M this weekend. Here’s the chart and don’t expect much to change in the morning:

1). Think Like A Man Too (SONY), 2,225 theaters / $12M Fri. / 3-day est. cume: $32M to $33M / Wk 1

2). 22 Jump Street (SONY), 3,306 theaters (0) / $9M Fri. / 3-day cume: $29M to $30M (-49%) / Total est. cume: $111M to $112M / Wk 2

3). How to Train Your Dragon 2 (FOX), 4,268 theaters (+15) / $7.3M Fri. / 3-day cume: $25M to $26M / Total cume: $95M+ / Wk 2

4). Jersey Boys (WB) 2,905 theaters / $4.5M to $5M Fri. / 3-day cume: $14M to $15M / Wk 1

5). Maleficent (DIS), 3,450 theaters (-173) / $3.8M Fri. / 3-day cume: $12M+ (-35%) / Total expected cume: $185M+ / Wk 4

6). Edge of Tomorrow (WB), 3,212 theaters (-293) / $3M Fri. / 3-day cume: $9.85M to $10M (-39%) / Total cume: $74M+ / Wk 3

7). The Fault In Our Stars (FOX), 3,340 theaters (+67) / $3M Fri. / 3-day cume: $8.5M (-43%) / Total cume: $98.6M / Wk 3

8). X-Men: Days of Future Past (FOX), 2,681 theaters (-361) / $1.8M Fri. / 3-day cume: $6.37M (-36%) / Total cume: $217M / Wk 5

9). Godzilla (WB), 2,088  theaters (-1,022) / $560K Fri. / 3-day cume: $1.87M (-45%) / Total cume: $194.9M / Wk 6

10). Chef (OPRD), 961 theaters (-141) / $435K Fri. / 3-day cume: $1.65M (-21%) / Total cume: $16.7M / Wk 7

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'Think Like A Man Too' & 'Jersey Boys' Highlight Weekend Box Office

In a summer of tentpoles and sequels, there's something a little different out there this weekend. Well, kind of different. There's no one in a mask or with a high-tech exoskeleton, but 'Think Like a Man Too' is, of course, a sequel, and director Clint Eastwood's 'Jersey Boys' is based on the massively successful Broadway musical. Nonetheless, as Deadline's master of all things box office Anita Busch explains, this might be the quiet before the transformative storm.

Think Like A Man TooIt’s going to be a good weekend for Sony Pictures Entertainment. The Screen Gems’ sequel Think Like A Man Too opened to $1.8M in late nights that started at 7 PM in 1,825 theaters, putting it in line for right around a $30M three-day weekend opening. The studio’s holdover, 22 Jump Street (Columbia Pics), has remained strong during the weekend with a tally of roughly $82.4M after grossing an estimated $5.45M yesterday going into the weekend. So the studio could easily end up with the No. 1 and No. 2 spots.

It’s not only good news for Sony, it’s great news for Tim Story, Will Packer and Kevin Hart, the same trio behind the hit comedy Ride Along earlier this year which opened to $41.5M on the Martin Luther King, Jr. holiday at 8 PM for Universal Pictures. In late night comparisons, Ride Along pulled in $1.06M in late nights and their other outing About Last Night, took in $525K. A January four-day holiday vs. the summer months. Although Sony is saying the comedy has a $24M budget, it’s actually $26M and change. The question is will it top Think Like A Man’s opening numbers of $33.6M? Nice that Hart popped into the 9 PM show last night at the AMC Loews on 34th St. in New York to welcome his fans. Incidentally, this also would mark the sixth No. 1 opening for director Tim Story (not consecutively, but still pretty darn sweet) and the sixth No. 1 opening for producer Will Packer.

RELATED: Hot Trailer: Kevin Hart in ‘The Wedding Ringer’

More interestingly, this would mark the second time this year that a director had two pics opening to No. 1 … right there with Phil Lord and Christopher Miller (The Lego Movie and 22 Jump Street). jersey boys

Director Clint Eastwood’s Jersey Boys had its premiere last night at the Los Angeles Film Festival and opened to late night midnights. The Warner Bros.’ picture based on play of the same name skews older and is not expected to do much business in a time crowded with young moviegoers. Early estimates had it in the mid-teens ($15M to $16M), but it could be less, like $12M. Still, it is always a pleasure to see the work of a master, and that is what Eastwood has proven himself to be time and time again. So, yes, I’ll be one of the older adults going to see this one.

The other How to Train Your Dragon 2 from DreamWorks Animation should round out the Top Three this weekend — the last weekend before Transformers comes in to crush everything in sight.

For more estimates listed by title, see box office results here...