SATURDAY PM/SUNDAY AM: If there's a Christmas-themed movie opening in November, then it's the official start of the holiday box office. (Hey, no studio waits for Thanksgiving anymore...)

1. Disney's A Christmas Carol. You know it as Charles Dickens' novel, but Disney had a problem with title rights, so now it's their pic. Hollywood predicted the 3-D family film to make at least $35M and possibly $40M this weekend because of its wide release into 3,683 theaters domestically, including 2,035 3-D locations and 181 IMAX screens). But the Jim Carrey starrer (he plays lotsa roles, including all 3 ghosts) directed by Robert Zemeckis (who used the same motion capture technology as Polar Express and Beowulf) made only $31M after opening with an underperforming $8.9 million Friday and a Saturday kiddie bump of $12.9M (+43%) despite the higher ticket prices. "Poor reviews coupled with the 'too dark for kids' attitude may really be hurting the opening," a rival studio exec told me Friday night. "Throw that in with the possibility that they just might be a bit too early with the Christmas theme, and you have the possibility of a really lackluster debut for an expensive movie. Mr. Iger will not be happy." Overseas, A Christmas Carol opened day-and-date in 18 territories and mostly in 3-D, including UK, Germany, Australia, Mexico, Brazil.

2. Michael Jackson's This Is It has picked up considerable steam worldwide since it's opening 10 days ago. Sony announced the concert rehearsal footage passed the $100 million mark overseas on Thursday after just 9 days of screen time. The estimated international gross through November 5th is $100.2 million. Domestically, the film has taken in an additional $43.8 million for a worldwide total of $144 million going into this weekend. Between the Jackson estate, concert promoter AEG, movie theaters, and Sony,  that cume has to be split at least 4 ways. On Friday, the pic moved up to 2nd place with $4.1M Friday and $5.7M Saturday (+42%) from 3,481 plays for a domestic weekend of $13.4M (a better than expected drop of -42% from a week ago).

3. Disagree with me all you want, but I found the trailers for The Men Who Star At Goats so godawful that they repelled me from seeing the movie which looked like one big inside joke for stars George Clooney, Ewan McGregor, Kevin Spacey, and Jeff Bridges. And it was since it's directed by Clooney’s producing partner Grant and produced by Clooney and Heslov’s Smokehous (along with BBC Films and Winchester Capital Partners). Lucky for them, it was acquired by Overture for just $5M because the R-rated pic made just $4.6M Friday and $5.4M Saturday (+16%) from 2,443 plays despite the well-known cast. (It might also be a case of bad timing given the Texas military massacre. This isn't the best weekend to make fun of that institution.) Still, a weekend of $13.3M is disappointing but looks like gravy on this goat. Not baaahd...

4. Maybe there was an unsatiated appetite for Halloween horror after last weekend's gazillion movies in the genre. But The Fourth Kind other-worldly thriller, produced by Gold Circle Films and acquired by Universal for distribution in the U.S., came in with $5M Friday from 2,529 runs and $4.8M Saturday (-4M%) for a $12.4M weekend. No one in the box office predicting biz thought much of this first-person verite experience. Like Paranormal Activity from Paramount pic, Uni also waged a big viral marketing campaign on the Internet.

5. Even going into its 7th week of release, Paramount's Paranormal Activity keeps scaring up moviegoers. It made $2.8M Friday and $3.6M Saturday from a wider 2,558 theaters for an $8.4M weekend.

6. Why Cameron Diaz, James Marsden, and Frank Langella would waste their star power on this stillborn mess The Box from Media Rights Capital and distributed by Warner Bros is anybody's guess. Maybe its pedigree from cult favorite Donnie Darko director Richard Kelly? But how embarrassing for them that the horror pic opened to only $3M Friday and $3.2M Saturday from 2,635 dates for just a $7.8M weekend. Ouch!

The rest of the Top 10 were holdovers:

7. Couples Retreat (Universal) Wkd $6.4M [2,857 runs]
8. Law Abiding Citizen (Overture) $1.8M Friday [2,474] Est Wkd $5.8M
9. Where The Wild Things Are (Wb) $1.1M Friday [2,756] Est Wkd $4M
10. Saw VI (Lionsgate) $700K Friday [2,091] Est Wkd $2M

Also opening Friday was the Oscar-buzzed Precious: Based On The Novel "Push" By Sapphire. Platforming in 18 theaters in 4 markets -- NY, LA, Atlanta, and Chicago -- consisting of arthouses and primarily African-American neighborhood venues. I'm told the debut numbers are outstanding because of all the advance publicity -- $585K for Friday, with a per screen average of $32,500, and a predicted $1.7M weekend. Starting with its attention-grabbing debut at the Sundance Film Festival last January, this powerful film adapted by Geoffrey Fletcher from a novel about an illiterate black Harlem teen whose father has raped and impregnated her twice was embraced by no less than Tyler Perry, which is why it landed with Lionsgate's Joe Drake for distribution, and Oprah Winfrey. Both came on as executive producers, unusual because they had no hand in the actual production of Precious and will be donating all their proceeds to charity, because of their personal experiences with family abuse and dysfunction. The result is they personally brought the film to the Toronto Film Festival and its official premiere at AFI Fest 2009 last Sunday. Also pumping up the film's profile are the presence of Mo'Nique, Sidibe, and Mariah Carey in the cast. And, covering all its political bases, Lionsgate arranged for George H.W. Bush and wife Barbara to host a Houston screening last Wednesday. Now comes an aggressive campaign for outspoken Lee Daniels' Best Picture Oscar.

Other openers on the specialty side include Hal Holbrook starrer That Evening Sun, which Freestyle opened in one theater in New York, La Danse: Le Ballet de L'Opera de Paris also debuting in a lone venue by Zipporah Films, and the South African thriller Endgame opened by Monterey Media in one New York venue.

I understand that no one on the SAG board who clashed with the AMPTP's Nick Counter during the long and bitter 2008/2009 round of negotiations before the Unite For Strength/NY/Regional divisions came to power are being allowed to have their say about his passing. But the Screen Actors Guild issued a statement tonight that, "It is with sadness that we mark the passing of Screen Actors Guild’s longtime industry colleague, Nick Counter."

Strangely because he barely negotiated against Counter, SAG National Executive Director David White joined newly elected SAG president Ken Howard in issuing the following statement: "Nick Counter was a giant of labor relations whose passing will be mourned throughout the entertainment industry. His long tenure as head of the AMPTP was typified by reason, compassion and flashes of wry humor. Sitting across the table from him was never easy, but Nick was always able to balance the relentless pursuit of his bargaining objectives with an evident respect for actors and admiration for their unique contribution to the art and business of entertainment. His death is a tremendous loss and our hearts and sympathies go out to his wife Jackie, his family, and to our colleagues at the AMPTP."

Screen Actors Guild Senior Advisor John McGuire was quoted as saying, "Throughout his years as the leader of the AMPTP, Nick brought to that organization balance, leadership and a commitment to finding ways to keep the Industry working for the benefit of everyone. SAG members are in his debt especially for his leadership in the SAG - Producers P&H Plans where his financial advice and guidance helped to protect and strengthen the health and pension benefits so vital to our members. Of equal weight was his involvement in the creation of the SAG Producers IACF fund that has provided vitally needed assistance to numerous SAG and Industry Affirmative Action and Assistance Programs. Nick truly set the bar high for everyone who strives to enhance our entertainment industry while caring for the employees who make it work. We have lost a true professional and a true friend."

Former Screen Actors Guild Executive Director Ken Orsatti said, "Nick and I sat across the negotiating table from one another through six Screen Actors Guild television and theatrical contract negotiations from 1983 to 1998. Nick was a formidable adversary and he was always fully prepared, always creative, ... Read More »

He was 69. He'd been ill for a long time, and was hospitalized several days ago, I'm told. A very controversial figure in Hollywood, Nick Counter served as President of the Alliance of Motion Picture & Television Producers (AMPTP) for 27 years, from its formation in 1982 until his retirement in March of this year. Prior to being named AMPTP President, he served as outside legal counsel for the antecedent Association of Motion Picture & Television Producers for 10 years. As AMPTP President, Counter's primary responsibility was to lead the 80 industry-wide labor negotiations with entertainment industry guilds and unions on behalf of the studios, the broadcast networks, and certain cable networks. In his 27 years as AMPTP President, Counter negotiated more than 300 major guild and union agreements. Warner Bros chief Barry Meyer, considered the lead mogul behind the AMPTP, tonight called Counter "a brilliant negotiator who guided this industry through historic change and never lost his desire to be fair to all involved. We will miss him very much."

His recently named successor and longtime No. 2, AMPTP President Carol Lombardini, had this to say tonight: "Nick's passing is a profound loss for the entire entertainment community. We will all remember Nick for his passionate leadership, which was always guided by a resolute sense of fair play and an earnest desire that everyone come out a winner. Nick had a particular proficiency for developing consensus among diverse points of view and he used this skill to great advantage in negotiating hundreds of collective bargaining agreements that led to a sustained era of labor peace. Those of us who worked directly with him have lost a valued colleague and a dear personal friend. Our hearts go out to his family."

The MPAA pointed out: "He always treated people with dignity and respect in the tough circumstances of these negotiations. He knew that you could be thoughtful and kind even when the issues were difficult, and for that he was respected."

However, I would be remiss if I did not point out that Counter was not a popular figure among the majority of the Hollywood guild members who saw him as extremely polarizing. Their negotiators regularly complained about Counter's bargaining methods to force the guilds to negotiate with themselves. Counter wouldn't budge on the issues, and instead sat, and sat, and waited for the other side to get frustrated and start taking ... Read More »

2:15 PM UPDATE: I've learned that 100 people are being laid off across "several divisions" of the A&E Television Networks yesterday and today "as a direct result of the merger". It will make those employees feel so much better that management tells me it's "no one in a decision making role." A&E Television Networks in August acquired Lifetime Entertainment, and everything is now owned by the Disney-ABC Television Group, Hearst and NBC Universal. Big Media = Big Mergers = Big Mistakes.

BusinessWeek's Ron Grover has a nice scoop: When DreamWorks moved to Disney for distribution, it fell under Disney pay TV deal with Starz through 2012. But Starz balked. You see pay channels like Starz get a piece of the annual $10-$12 a month that a cable operator collects from customers who get the channel. So let’s say that Starz has 18 million subscribers, the last number which owner Liberty Media reported to the SEC. If it gets $5 a month from each subscriber, it generates revenues of $90 million a month or about $1.1 billion a year. The problem comes in the payout to Disney, specifically the number of films Disney releases and, just as importantly, how those films do at the box office. So the addition of DreamWorks, if it's successfull, would be too costly. The result is that Starz pressured Disney to force DreamWorks to find another pay TV home. 

That Spielberg et al have now landed at Showtime is great news for CBS Inc and Les Moonves, who needs to strengthen Showtime's offerings after losing its deal with Paramount, Lionsgate and MGM to the new Epix now rolling out. As Showtime starts lining up for its next round of negotiations over fees with cable and satellite operators, Spielberg is one of the headline acts. Also Spielberg is executive producer for the show United States of Tara on Showtime, as well as producing a show on the behind-the-scenes making of a Broadway play for the pay channel.

Sony announced today that Michael Jackson’s THIS IS IT hit the $100 million mark overseas on Thursday after just 9 days of screen time. The estimated international gross through November 5th is $100.2 million. Domestically, the film has taken in an additional $43.8 million for a worldwide total to date of $144 million. Outside of North America, the biggest markets through last night are: Japan - $18.2 million, UK - $11.1 million, Germany - $8.9 million, France - $8.7 million.

The Writers Guild, West, is in the process of surveying members about why there is so little work in Hollywood right now, how they feel about that, and what the leadership can do about it:

"Dear Fellow Screenwriters & Television Longform Writers:



As the screenwriters on the Board of Directors, we are asking that you join
us in participating in an online survey. This survey is an
opportunity for all of us working in feature film and television longform to 
provide a candid assessment of the current climate for writers. We expect the data to be enlightening and informative for 
screenwriters as well as for the leadership and staff of the Guild. Furthermore, we believe it will help guide our
efforts to best represent the membership.

Writer-specific information will be kept confidential. Aggregated data, without reference to particular writers, may be released in Guild
publications as a means of informing the membership of the survey's
findings. The survey tool we have chosen includes SSL protection to ensure 
your privacy is protected when you participate.
We have each already completed the survey ourselves, and we were all able to complete it in less than twenty minutes. So without further delay please join us in participating in the 2009 WGAW Screenwriter/Television Longform
Writer Survey.

In Unity,
John Wells, President; Tom Schulman, Vice President; David Weiss, Secretary-Treasurer; Ian Deitchman, Board Member; Howard Michael Gould, Board Member; Mark Gunn, Board Member; Katherine Fugate, Board Member; Aaron Mendelsohn, Board Member; Billy Ray, Board Member; Howard Rodman, Board Member; Steven Schwartz, Board Member."

Pixel Magic today announced a new digital media studio at LITE in Lafayette. It could create 40 direct new jobs in 3 years. "Pixel Magic is a great example of the kind of companies we hoped to position Louisiana to secure when we strengthened Louisiana's film production and digital interactive media tax credits during the last legislative session," said Gov. Bobby Jindal. "Pixel Magic's decision to locate in Louisiana will send a signal to Hollywood and to other leading digital media companies that Louisiana is a major player in the digital media industry. This win will help accelerate the development of Lafayette as a hub for digital media and film production, and of course it will help create more good jobs for our children so that they can pursue their dreams right here in Louisiana."

Pixel Magic provides digital visual effects for motion pictures and television. Its capabilities include a full range of visual effects services in 2-D and 3-D, including digital compositing, set extensions, wire and rig removals, digital opticals and crowd duplication. Pixel Magic has done work for Miramax, Warner Bros, 20th Century Fox, and DreamWorks on major films, such as Marley & Me, Get Smart, 300, Mr. and Mrs. Smith,  and The Last Samurai. Louisiana Economic Development's Office of Entertainment Development, working with regional and local partners, encouraged Pixel Magic to expand in Louisiana in conjunction with its work on Disney's film Secretariat, currently filming in Acadiana.

"After reviewing opportunities in Canada, Louisiana, New Mexico and other states, we chose Louisiana because of its variety of locations and diverse environments, the growth of film production in the state, and its industry specific tax incentives," said Pixel Magic General Manager RayScalice. Pixel Magic said it  will benefit from Louisiana's recently strengthened film production tax credits and could also use the new digital interactive media tax credits for projects in the near future.

Additionally, Pixel Magic expects to enroll in the Louisiana FastStart program, a turnkey workforce solution for expanding companies, which will help recruit and train qualified employees to meet its digital production needs. Pixel Magic also will receive one free year of office space.

I've confirmed that Dr. Phil McGraw has announced to his staff that he has signed on for another 3 years in addition to the 2 years still left on his contract. His show is syndicated by CBS TV Distribution and his own Peteski Production. So rest assured those cheatin', lyin', spendin', cryin' couples will get his help. And while I'm on the subject of syndication, the Tribune station group has renewed NBC Universal’s trio of awful talk shows – Maury, Jerry Springer, and Steve Wilkos through the 2011-2012 season. My question is: why?

So today producer Mark Canton was seen screaming at Kate Mantilini's maitre'd. "Do you know who I am? Mark Canton! You can look up my credits!" Now, I go to that restaurant all the time, and the people who work there couldn't be nicer. And I confirmed the details of what happened. The staff told me the one-time studio exec has been using Kate's to hold industry meetings, but not to eat the food. So when the eatery was full today, and Canton was between meetings, the maitre'd asked if Mark was actually going to order lunch this time around or just talk business again. That's when Canton became enraged and started making a spectacle of himself. What an asshole.

UPDATES THE END OF 'OPRAH' AS WE KNOW HER

My news this morning that the daytime diva has decided to give up her syndicated talk show and move it to her namesake cable network OWN in 2011, amid Discovery Communications' demands that she "move it or lose it", caught CBS by surprise. The Eye was counting on a 1- or 2-year renewal if The Oprah Winfrey Show which its CBS Television Distribution syndicates. "In all honesty, we have not heard she's made a decision yet whether to continue," an insider tells me. "We think we're still in the talking stages. To our minds, it's a non-decision." 

CBS had scheduled a face-to-face meeting a month ago with Oprah and her personal and professional posse at her Santa Barbara compound to discuss her plans. But one of the people in the close group of people around her passed away. So it was canceled, I've learned. 

CBS is quick to point out that, a few years back, Winfrey re-negotiated her distribution deal with CBS TV Distribution so it "gets a lesser fee now". The result is that, when Oprah stops her syndicated talk show and moves it to OWN (her Oprah Winfrey Network that will replace the Discovery Health Channel), "It will be a hit for us, but not until 2012. And by then the economy should have recovered. And with the lower syndication fee, it's not as big a hit as it would have been,"a CBS insider tells me.

Besides, CBS has seen Oprah claim time and time again over the years that she's "retiring" from the syndicated show. But to take Oprah to a nosebleed cable channel even if reaches into 70 million homes? "She has always respected the fact that the pulpit she has now gives her such a huge amount of influence." And CBS also plans to remind her that, thanks to the syndicated show, "she by far makes more money on TV than anybody else." Now let's see how persuasive Les Moonves and his people can be.