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So why are advertisers rushing to show commercials on the 4th place TV network? Beats me, because insiders tell me that, any day now, NBC will be crowing how it's nearly completed sales for this year’s upfront. I've been slipped some latest numbers -- $1.9 billion, up from last year (by about $100 million) in a down market. Everyone knows that, last year to avoid a huge humiliation, NBC kept back inventory for the later scatter market. So it's indeed a surprise that the network was able to sell so much inventory in the early marketplace considering its lousy schedule and the worsening economy. The average CPM increase is 6%. These figures include football, but not the Olympics or Superbowl. For those, the Olympics are about 80% sold and "pacing right on track" and there's supposed to be strong demand from advertisers for this year's Superbowl. (Let's hope the ads are better than the lame-ass ones last time...) Back to network numbers, I'm told that, generally, all dayparts (network, prime, latenight, etc.) are flat to up. Since the overall market is down about 3%-4% and NBC is up about 5%-6%, 
I understand that NBC Universal boss Jeff Zucker is interpreting this as "a vote of confidence" in the network schedule and "real proof" that his decision is paying off to save money by forgoing a formal pilot season and full-frills upfront presentation and instead replacing it with a so-called "In Front stategy" whereby scripts and pitches were ordered straight to series for a new year-round schedule rounded out by cheap reality and game shows. So I'm sorry to be the bearer of bad news to all you TV agents and showrunners and writers and actors and producers hoping this was just a strike-induced passing phase -- but, for the forseeable future, a normal pilot season at NBC looks dead in the water. Of course, NBC's fall schedule is expected to tank yet again. But that's probably when NBC will start funding low-budget New Media projects as backdoor pilots to test ideas on the Internet before going to series, thus finding a cheap way around the new guild contracts. (Long sigh...) As to other networks, upfront ad sales are looking up 9%-10% for Fox, 8%-10% for ABC and 7%-8% for CBS. Meanwhile, I hear all NBC Universal properties expect to reach $4.1B-$4.2B (compared to $4B last year).
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Well I hope the minimal gains made in “New Media” and residuals for past programs will make up for the fewer pilots that will be ordered and series that might have been made but will never see the light of day thanks to the strike. I hope the futility of striking in a sagging economy and a global market where networks and studios can simply outsource for their product and they can find a less expensive one with less trouble.
You don’t need a crystal ball to see how this one shakes out. Networks “shake things up” by forgoing pilot season/upfronts and producing very few pilots. All or most of these pilots fail, and the networks have nothing to replace them with. Ratings tank, advertisers pissed. Networks “shake things up” again by reinstating upfronts and producing tons of pilots. And so on.
They’ll be back to ordering pilots once these new shows crap out because they suck. Especially the ones ripped off from Great Britain. Or telenovas.
Who is watching the garbage on NBC?
Chalk up another ancillary victory for the writers strike…..for the producers!
Does Zucker have a deal with the devil? Seriously, this ’strategy’ should have had him dead in the water.
Just because L&O and Medium managed to make NBC look good during the strike, doesn’t mean this year round plan is anything but lame. Do the ad agencies really believe that Knight Rider is going to be that big, because a large part of the fall schedule is the same one that had NBC returning their money at the end of 2007. Unless access to the best events at the Olympics came with additional ad buys in the fall attached, this makes no sense.
Oh, well I guess I’m going to have to buy another day in the Zucker gets canned pool, because he has saved his skin one more time.
Congrats, WGA! You lost.
unless of course, the unfunny Kath and Kim and the cheesey Kings fail miserably.
Not so fast. What happens when Kath and Kim tanks? When people don’t care to watch Christian Slater play two people, let alone one. When the nostalgia of a weekly Knight Rider wears off. When the barely brought back LIFE doesn’t do well. If NBC’s rush decision on which to make a series out of fails, they screwed
TOLDYA!
Just like everything else, expect it to spread if successful.
It’s another blow to the “success” (or more appropriately, lack thereof) of the WGA strike.
WGA leadership groupies will have to read the WGA press releases again to remind themselves how “historic” and “ground-breaking” their strike was – even though everything else proves that it was not.
The “South Park” episode “Canada on Strike” nailed it.
Is this the future Verrone had in mind for guild members of the future? Doubt it.
And yet it is.
And how about all of that BTL work that isn’t happening?
Perhaps the WGA should send out another letter crucifing the fi-cores to make itself feel better.
The writers haven’t lost. The networks will still be buying scripts and pitches… it’s the directors, actors, and below-the-line people who worked on all the pilots who’ll be hurting if this becomes the norm.
Congrats, WGA! You lost. Comment by Bob Foerster
Wait, is this THE Bob Foerster? Seriously?
Encurtido is right, but this strategy is not going to be the norm because it will fail hard. I’ll bet I can count the people on one hand that are waiting for Knight Rider. The answer is two (Ben Silverman and Jeff Zucker). As for the practice of “In-fronts,” expect NBC to drop the strategy as soon as this fall’s numbers come in. NBC is only reaping a good upfront because Ben Silverman managed the strike better than other networks.
The only mistake he made was airing four straight hour long Offices to start the season, but that was directed by Jeff Zucker. The Office had 12 episodes done with the hour long episodes as a two episodes. Even if six to eight episodes were aired in the fall, at least four should have been held for February Sweeps. That leads to this question, who won the Celebrity Apprentice, and how does he or she feel about crossing the picket line?
The WGA didn’t “lose,” it caved. There’s a difference.
I bet its mostly for the football games. Advertisers will do anything to reach young men these days.
That said, how much MORE could NBC have gotten if they had a full schedule of good shows? I hope that’s taken into account.
And if CBS pulls in more, will Zucker look bad?
ah, i love it how u loathe zucker.
it’s true though. my gosh does anyone recall when nbc used to have great dramas and comedies? what it is now is so distant from it’s former self.
Maybe I’m misreading what this “In Front” strategy is but it sounds to me to be the more logical British way of handling new TV shows. Rather than paying for 18 pilots, you find the three shows you like and give them 6-episode orders. If they succeed, you extend the order for next season. If they don’t, you move on to the new series.
I think this works better because shows get a legit chance rather than having their fate decided on a single pilot (which, in a lot of cases, is the worst episode of the series). Maybe NBC just doesn’t know how to pick the right scripts but it just seems more logical to spend money on shows that you’ll actually air then to know that probably 2/3’s of the money you’re spending on pilot season is going to go to waste. I know it’s fun to hate the suits but I think this is a much better business plan.
Oh, and rather than sitting around whining about NBC funding New Media projects, why don’t writers and showrunners hustle up some cash and produce their own? Instead of going to the networks with just a script, you’ll have a rough pilot and, hopefully, a decent sized pre-sold audience to give you some more leverage in negotiations. That’s what I’m planning on trying to do.
HAROLD
South Park nailed it?!?!
All that episode did was make it seem like writers want to make money off you tube. Which in reality, we want to make money of things like HULU. Which is not internet sensations, its full blown episodes, no seasons, of television which people spent months trying to create.
And attacking the WGA leadership is ridiculous. Because the bottom line is, if we could get more concessions by striking 6 more months, most people still wouldnt strike. If anything it is failure of the membership to work as long as possible. The fact that we have jurisdiction on things like HULU is still a boon and will lay the groundwork for future deals.
NBC is selling more inventory this year, 80% vrs 76% last year and that why they were able to closely match last years upfront amount or they in fact would be below last years numbers. Their stating the reason they can do this is because of the 65 week programming schedule, but in truth it is to hide the fact that they are a poor imitiation of a network. Just like they hid the fact they had to comedies to replace Friends by airing supersized shows. Zucker is an idiot.
The TV plan has always been to embrace Year Round; “pilot season” is actually slightly past ‘dead,’ as far as any good business plan. Of course, the speed of the net, at least for the next 2-3 years, is unable to support viable show testing= Nielsen, Tivo, Apple, & Google will be one co. first – except in Euro markets(the Hoff would star in every pilot…). + high speed networks are over priced in the US; not to mention mobile battery life. Politics aside, NBCU/JZ1 is really ahead of the game(it is a business, after all)- buy stock, long. Embrace change, or fall by the wayside, & wait for Godot, while you create beautiful art that has, at best, choppy YouTube distribution, w/ unpaid ads. At least for the next 2-3. Actually, it’s best to just be so incredibly creative that Yes is the only option.
I honestly cannot think of an NBC show that I watch. If it were not for football, I do not think I would tune NBC. Actually, there are very few major network shows I do watch. Am I part of the trend or just have abnormal viewing habits? For an aspiring writer, this is not good.
well at least when or if their shows tank they can put Criminal Intent repeats on like they had to because of the strike, then viewers like mw who can’t get USA will get our show back, even if it is second hand. Works for me.
What is wrong with you media planners/buyers? Why are rewarding that putz!?! Is it inertia? Do you really want to deal with the giveback headaches later into ‘08-’09? Unless you are going to demand Super Bowl time but I hardly see GE/NBC letting you ride that pony.
P.S. Don’t get me started on the CW’s ad rates!
NBC is up about 5%-6%.
As to other networks, upfront ad sales are looking up 9%-10% for Fox, 8%-10% for ABC and 7%-8% for CBS.
They are all up. Which means inflation has affected ad prices as they have everything else. NBC is up THE LEAST. How can these numbers be interpreted as successful for them? They are only widening the gap that already exists between them and the others networks.
Wait, so NBC will try airing shows on the “net” to get a gauge of how they will do on the air? Yeah, thats a great idea. Look at Quarterlife.
What does it matter everything that NBC puts on the air will fail and little Ben and Jeff can talk about rewriting Zip for the third year in a row.
“just a guy — June 6, 2008 @ 2:03 am – South Park nailed it?!?! All that episode did was make it seem like writers want to make money off you tube. And attacking the WGA leadership is ridiculous. Because the bottom line is, if we could get more concessions by striking 6 more months, most people still wouldnt strike.”
You’re clearly not a writer or a WGA member to miss completely what was communicated in that “South Park” episode, and your comments about HULU are ridiculous. There is no such thing as “groundwork for future deals.” Ask actual WGA members about the “groundwork” for their home video residual that will forever remain the same.
For the public, South Park never fails to encapsulate the overall theme in dialogue for those above which it sails high above their heads. So for “just a guy” and the similarly uninformed, here it is:
“While the Internet is new and exciting for creative people, it hasn’t matured as a distribution mechanism to the extent that one should trade real and immediate opportunities for income for the promise of future online revenue. It will be a few years before digital distribution of media on the Internet can be monetized to an extent that necessitates content producers to forgo their fair value in more traditional media.”
Well said, Trey and Matt.
The WGA lost their strike. They also lost the ability to strike until 2030 or so. By then, many will have forgotten that they are 0 for 3 in strikes, so they will go 0 for 4. They will also have forgotten the mistakes that were made (e.g., “interim agreements” that mean absolutely nothing and have only served to weaken the WGA’s resolve in the last two strikes) and repeat them. Then. they will strike in 2050 and continue their 20-year cycle of failure.
Or perhaps they will elect leaders and hire staff that know what they are doing.
Doubt it.
Why break with tradition?
AMPTP members continue to school the guilds. It’s jerk behavior, but it’s impressive that AMPTP members always come out better from a strike than the guild that authorized it.
“While the Internet is new and exciting for creative people, it hasn’t matured as a distribution mechanism to the extent that one should trade real and immediate opportunities for income for the promise of future online revenue. It will be a few years before digital distribution of media on the Internet can be monetized to an extent that necessitates content producers to forgo their fair value in more traditional media.”
The justifiable fear was that if writers/actors/directors weren’t made part of the business model of the new distribution model (as an expensive but necessary cost) that is being created right now and will be perfected in the next few years, they would forever be locked out. So while it was painful for those who have hit shows on the air at the moment to take a hit, it helped guarantee that those who come after them will still be able to make a career of it.
You would think Matt and Trey could see beyond themselves and their egos but they could not (and by the way the size of their egos has nothing to do with how consistently funny the show is– which it is.)
The article in the Reporter today mentioned that NBC announced a 65-week schedule – that’s a full quarter added onto the 52-week schedule. If NBC is selling 25% more ad space with an increase in sales of only about 5% (.1/1.9 billion) then there is some serious spin happening. Can anyone enlighten me if this is the situation?
Whoever had those true numbers thanks for publishing them.
Here is what I took from that South Park episode in question:
The WGA leadership (Canada) were shepherding the mindless people of Canada. The boys were only involved because Kyle’s brother Ike is from Canada. The main thing Canada wanted was respect and money from the Internet and this drove the boys to create a video to post on You Tube and try to collect the money. In the end, all Canada and the leadership got was just some crap, very little money, and no respect. From what I seen, the episode saw Canada was the WGA and they struck for nothing where, in reality, that just isn’t true. Thank God that they didn’t have Cartman convince Terrence and Phillip to go fi-core and lead to other Canadians to do the same (at least on the celebrity side with Paul Shaffer, Celine Dion, and Ellen Page among those going fi-core.
@Comment by Harold — June 6, 2008 @ 10:08 am
double bingo. both comments you’ve made are spot on.
@Comment by George Glass — June 6, 2008 @ 10:56 am
false. to suggest they would have been locked out forever is ridiculous. Writers and actors used to get nothing for home video or cable now they both get something (and actors actually clean up on that stuff–(I know I see the checks come in everyday)
Especially considering the short length of the contract. The amount of money lost to lost work (especially below the liners and office assistants, many of whom are still looking for work, who will get NOTHING back from new media EVER) will exceed the amount gained for the entire length of the contract. It really was a poorly run and lead strike. The AMPTP showed the difference in negotiating skill. (which I guess is the reason why they are put in charge of the billion dollar companies)
NBC sold well because their demo has been skewing MUCH younger with = MONEY. Also, if you would have read any of the shows they do have coming down the pipe they are actually pretty f’n good.
I still think the cable series are better (even on FX) but NBC has good scripts to work with.
Now whether they make them as well as they were written we’ll seen…