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Here is what is clear to me based on new reporting about the entrenched positions of both sides: hopes for any kind of settlement have dimmed. I have learned that last week Jeffrey Katzenberg tried and failed to backchannel a compromise that would have brought both the WGA and the AMPTP back to the bargaining table. It was an effort that was laudable. But the fact that it was unsuccessful dramatically points up disturbing realities, I have learned: that the CEOs are deeply entrenched in their desire to punish the WGA for daring to defy them by striking and to bully the writers into submission on every issue, and that the moguls consider the writers are sadly misguided to believe they have any leverage left. I'm told the CEOs are determined to write off not just the rest of this TV season (including the Back 9 of scripted series), but also pilot season and the 2008/2009 schedule as well. Indeed, network orders for reality TV shows are pouring into the agencies right now. The studios and networks also are intent on changing the way they do TV development so they can stop spending hundreds of millions of dollars in order to see just a few new shows succeed. As for advertising, the CEOs seem determined to do away with the upfront business and instead make their money from the scatter market. I'm sorry to break this disappointing development right before Christmas, but I pledged to stay objective in my reporting and I can't ignore this major news development. The truth often hurts. But don't blame the messenger. And, no, this info wasn't dumped in my lap, either. (That only happens over at Variety or the Los Angeles Times...)
The WGA-AMPTP post-strike talks fell apart December 7th when the mogul reps issued an ultimatum, containing six issues which the WGA needed to take off the table for any talks to continue, then ended all negotiations. Katzenberg as both a moderate this time around (he was a hardliner back during the WGA strike of 1988) and a bit player (as head of small DreamWorks Animation) has been marginalized by the Big Media moguls during these negotiations (unlike '88 when he headed Walt Disney Studios and was a major henchman). Despite his lowly status, Jeffrey made an effort, with the full knowledge of the other CEOs, to get the talks restarted. "Ultimately, what he was trying to do was to bring both sides back before the DGA started negotiating," a source told me.
So Katzenberg organized three give-and-take sessions between himself and 30 to 40 TV showrunners seeking his advice because of their concern about the WGA's negotiating strategy. These so-called dissidents claim to represent at least a 100 hyphenates. And they say they had the blessing of three members of the WGA negotiating committee. But WGA insiders maintain there is no widespread showrunner movement to negotiate independently, "just a small group who mistakenly thought they could maneuver behind the scenes (with only the best intentions) but were blindsided by the AMPTP," as an influential WGA insider tells me. WGA leadership claims showrunner unanimity and points to a series of smaller showrunner informational meetings that took place during the same period of time which included at least a hundred if not more. But not only WGA negotating committee member Carlton Cuse went back to work to finish his producing duties on Lost without the knowledge of the general membership, so, too, did Marc Cherry, the Desperate Housewives showrunner and another WGA negotiating member. There's no question many showrunners are now in solidarity with WGA leadership, both some are not. It's true the strike is being waged on their backs because of their influential positions. And while these producer/writers are on the picket lines, the WGA for some reason has not gone after the director/writers or the actor/writers to stop working as the guild promised it would.
According to sources, Katzenberg told the dissident showrunners, "If your WGA leaders don't make a deal with us before the DGA, my concern is you'll never make a deal with us. The guild will break down and key people like yourselves will go Fi-Core. It'll be 1988 all over again almost to the week and month. It's my belief that it's not in anyone's interest, in fact it would be bad for the Industry as a whole, for the guild to get divided. And that's what's going to happen."
Then Katzenberg went to Barry Meyer, the Warner Bros chairman/CEO considered a hardliner among the moguls, and told him that this clique of showrunners were ready to go to their leadership and tell them to focus only on New Media issues if the talks re-started. But the moguls needed to go back into negotiations without any conditions so that ultimatum had to be taken off the table. "Jeffrey told Barry, 'I'm confident we will get a deal done if you go back in the room with the WGA now,'" an insider confided.
But Meyer, obviously speaking for the rest of the CEOs, refused. Now those dissident showrunners, I'm told, feel really burned. "They totally understood now what the negotiating committee has been through for the past six months and were very apologetic that they had questioned leadership up until now. 'Sheepish' was the word I heard used," one influential WGA insider tells me. "Although now there really aren't two differing opinions anymore. We all think the AMPTP sucks and that our guys have been sandbagged throughout this process." So no talks are planned, none are anticipated, and if the moguls continue to have their way and blow up the TV development process, none will be forthcoming for months and months. That is the reality.
I am now convinced that the 8 Big Media moguls pretty much have a vice-like grip on how this strike will get settled. And virtually no amount of external pressure will force their hand. I know from my many years of reporting on labor negotiations in the U.S. and abroad that, in any new contract negotiation, there is one watershed moment when the union and the companies can move the flag down the field in a meaningful way before ego, rhetoric, and the passage of time get the better of everyone involved. Has that moment come and gone? I honestly don't know, but if it hasn't, then it's soon -- very soon.
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The outlook wasn’t *already* grim?
Bah. Humbug. Merry F’in Christmas.
Disappointing. There’s too much “point-making” being done, and too little “deal-making”.
My prayers are with all of those who have been hurt by this strike. May rational minds return to the negotiations in Jan.
I sense a Christmas present coming… One last bit of psy-ops from the AMPTP before the holidays: “Go into Christmas knowing we’ll never negotiate with you. Ha ha.”
Sorry, Mr. Lehane, Mr. Counter, I’m not buying it…
Damn the AMPTP. I’m just a viewer who wants a fair deal made for the writers and who wants her shows back, but boy, this strike sure has created a lot of resentment from me towards these studio moguls who make millions of dollars a month and who can’t make a decent deal with their employees to get a fair wage for their work. They won’t even negotiate, let alone negotiate in fairness!! Frankly, they are making me sick. I hope they all choke on their egg nog tomorrow.
All I’ve seen in the headline…but is anyone surprised? The Psy-Ops that the AMPTP has been waging since day one would be incomplete without trying to dishearten writers and dash their hopes on the day before Christmas.
Sure it’s cruel…but not very imaginative.
F*CK!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I wonder what would happen if the fans truly supported the writers by boycotting television? What would the moguls do then? It wouldn’t matter how many reality shows poured in if no one watches them. Fans really need to get behind the writers.
-A Fan Who Supports the WGA (and who misses her favorite show!)
I’m a little confused. Katzenberg says “make a deal with us,” but I believe Dreamworks Animation is not even a guild signatory company. And word around town was that pre-strike, Dreamworks Animation was helping WGA members join the Animation Guild of the IA. I guess the good news for Katzenberg was that Barry Meyer took his call.
Okay, but who the hell wants to watch “reality” TV?
That was boring nonsense 5 years ago.
Fuck the moguls (except for JK, nice try). For some reason they have decided to destroy their businesses. It’s time for their shareholders to revolt. And just like the defiance against the Edison Trust 100 years ago this business will change because the filmmakers, not the big corporations, decide to change it.
the moguls are determined to write off not just the rest of this TV season (including the Back 9 of scripted series), but also pilot season and the 2008/2009 schedule as well
I’m surprised anyone believes this is anything other than a bogus position intended only to try to scare and intimidate people.
Maybe what Katzenberger should have told Meyer is that the moguls are quickly marginalizing themselves, and that the only fi-core we’re going to need is blowing up quickly in the form of straight-to-internet content companies, under Guild contract, of course.
I wonder if the dinosaurs looked up in the sky and wondered what that big ball of approaching fire was? I’d like to think the moguls have brains larger than walnuts, but it’s not looking too hopeful for them.
Merry x-mas.
So, essentially, the ultimatums of Dec. 7th WERE in fact a sham. They had no intention of negotiation with us prior to the DGA. Period. Not even if solely about new media. They’re… sorry, I am a writer, but this is the best I can do… pigs.
I’m confused by one point. How can the studios be willing to throw away the next TV season? That’s BILLIONS of dollars in upfront money. There’s no way advertisers will pay the same amount for reality shows and gameshows (outside of established ones, like American Idol, Survivor and Amazing Race.) I just don’t buy that they’d be so angry at the writers to throw away over ten times the amount of money the writers are asking for.
Thanks for all the great reporting, Nikki, happy holidays!
Fine. As someone else once said, Bring it on.
The CEO’s will lose television as we know it to Google and Microsoft. Let’s see the CEO’s try to push THEM around.
It’s a shame. All because they have little penises, are five feet tall, and/or were pushed around in grade school.
WGA is planning to go political after the first of the year. FCC, congressional hearings, sworn testimony like the tobacco case, etc. Plus, shareholder-led suits, SEC, etc.
Simply put, their positions as regards their fiduciary duties is not justifiable given the economics involved. They are throwing out the baby with the bathwater. They will be remembered as the group who presided over the end of TV as we know it.
Let them put on an all-reality schedule. Ha! Reality is already dying. It has no back end and is a shadow of what it once was. Plus, some members are planning a campagin called “If you believe in America, don’t watch American Idol” to include a viral video campaign that will give Peter Chernin nightmares.
Katzenberg is one of them, plain and simple. There is no fi-core movement. CEO’s are too stupid to realize that to split the Guild you need an offer the leadership says isn’t good enough. Where’s your offer? There is none. And NO ONE at this point will take an offer that doesn’t include Internet.
This ain’t 1988. And the quicker the CEO’s figure that out, the quicker they will realize that they are about to preside over the end of commercial television. CBS will become an outdoor advertising company. Is that what Les Moonves dreamed of when he finally stopped crying about being a failed actor?
A TRUE corporate leader would figure out a way to resolve this. These CEO’s are a bunch of wimps. What do they think, they’re going to reach a deal with the DGA and then we’ll cave and take it? Fat chance. If that’s what they think they are clueless. Get this through your heads, mogul morons: What scripts are there going to be for your directors to direct?
Not only that, they have bad intelligence if they haven’t heard, as the writers have, that the DGA has moved toward the WGA position over the last six weeks. High level meetings have taken place. If DGA doesn’t get a good offer for Internet, you can expect them to take up picketing also, and unlike twenty years ago, this one is going to go A LOT longer than a few hours.
Their refusal to pay anyone for the internet is the same as them declaring they will no longer tolerate unions for television or theatrical features. It’s the same thing since that’s where this industry is heading and everyone knows it. So by making the disastrous decision to break ALL unions they have invited not only a WGA strike, not only an inevitable SAG strike, but a likely strike by DGA as well. They are looking at a triple strike and with that kind of solidarity, lets’s see how Wall Street reacts. It’s not going to be pretty.
The studios had all the leverage until January 1st and they wasted it. Talk about not negotiating when you had the leverage, well, that is exactly the mistake the studios made. Starting now the leverage shifts to us. They are trying to spin this by acting like they don’t care about losing the rest of this television season or next. So Les Moonves runs a publicly traded television company and doesn’t care if it ever makes another television show?
Sounds to me like the dot-com bubble and the housing bubble have transititioned into the great media stock bubble. These film and television companies are not going to be worth much at all with no film and no television to sell.
But lest anyone be concerned for them, the Einstein of Entertainment, Jeff Zucker, has figured it all out. He’s got exactly what the American public has been clamoring for: old cable re-runs of Monk.
That was the funniest thing I’ve ever heard. As if Jeff Zucker hasn’t destroyed NBC enough already. Old cable re-runs of Monk is the answer to the problem. Maybe he should divide those old Monk re-runs by four and share them with the other networks.
I love it!
The WGA’s leverage is in the falling profit projections of the companies. Jeff Immelt has already degraded profits for GE in the 4th Quarter because of the strike. CEOs live and die by provided shareholder profits. When Wall Street notices and shareholders lose value, the game will change. The moguls are putting up a false front right now.
The major difference between writers and CEOs is that CEOs must be as risk adverse to stay in line with their shareholders (which explains all the stupid summer sequels).
Writers have endured years of extremely adverse odds to get where they are today and thus have already proved that they able to endure months and months of hard times.
That is what I call leverage.
I’ve always believed this was about breaking the Union. Unfortunately, no Christmas miracle here. It’s turning out to be true. Very sad news indeed.
The AMPTP needs to be labeled a terrorist organization. Their actions (choosing not to talk…c’mon, JUST FRIGGIN’ TALK!!!!) will destroy the lives of 100’s of thousands of people in this town (non-writers), and the local economy as well.
“Ultimately, what he was trying to do was to bring both sides back before the DGA started negotiating,” a
Sounds more like what he was doing was trying to undermine WGA leadership by going to the membership and creating a schism.
Incidentally, the New Media issue is *not* the only important issue if the WGA wants to have any relevancy in the future- Craig Mazin be damned. WGA must have jurisdiction over reality (and ideally animation too) out of *self-interest*. Otherwise it will continue to represent an ever-shrinking sub-group of industry writers. And as that percentage shrinks over time, the WGA loses its strength and relevance in the industry.
Congrats to NBC for losing 11% of its audience this year BTW!
I received a confidential email regarding this exact proposal and effort by Mr. Katzenberg about a week ago.
I have been waiting to see if it would surface and what the reported contents would be before commenting.
Mr. Katzenberg did not write the email and from my knowledge had nothing to do with it nor did he then even have knowledge of it.
Let me just say that Miss Finke is being very generous in her description of what happened, particularly from the side of the AMPTP. The email I read described in stark detail the stringing along of Mr. Katzenberg by the AMPTP and the open proposals the WGA had made through him to the same and the last minute shut down of potential negotiations by the AMPTP.
Let me make it VERY clear without going into detail that the WGA made a very significant proposal which should have, at the very least, had the AMPTP running back to the negatiating room only to have them pull out literally at the last minute and make it clear that they wish to deal with the DGA first and then the WGA, or what is left of it.
The email composer believes that negatiations will be off until at least mid-February.
It’s going to be a long winter.
Happy Holidays indeed……
Has the AMPTP forgotten that the actors will strike in June? They can’t get anything done then. Will movies film themselves? They’d rather sit around, put thousands out of work, watch their stock prices fall and their profits plummet rather than give a single thing. It’s insane. Do they think they can put all reality on cable, HBO, and Showtime when those scripts dry up?
Some day, there will be a new system that rises up out of this. An indepent studio system where writers have the copyright to their own work. It never should have been signed away. The studios have lost their mind, headed by cloistered greedy billionaires with no concept of reality.
Strike Rule #11:
If only Bush weren’t in charge of the federal government. Industries just aren’t allowed to act this way under federal law, but good luck getting that enforced.
Of course the other possibility is that the studios saying they’re willing to write off 2008/2009 is a bluff designed to scare the guilds. Two years without scripted shows would be devastating to ratings. They haven’t even borne the worst of it yet. When sweeps comes and they have no ratings, then the idea of a full year without shows will probably sink in. Much easier to saber rattle now when you can convince yourself that Am I Smarter Than a Fat Person’s Mother is going to have the same ratings pull as Grey’s Anatomy.
Why is this a surprise? Didn’t you think that the moguls went into this thing with the long haul in mind? They’re greedy, not stupid. They know you can’t destroy organized labor in a particular industry over night. It takes months, maybe longer. Starting with the 30+ pages of rollbacks and the threat to eliminate residuals to make sure the writers couldn’t possibly accept, to the ultimatums and misinformation, they were way out in front of this thing. They know they use the trades to distort the facts so that people (if not now, then in 6 months when they’re more desperate) will start to think their problems are the fault of the “WGA’s strike.” and not the unfair business practices of the moguls. And so writers turn on writers and the other unions turn on the writers and the public gets tired of watching non-scripted crap and they turn on the writers too. And soon, the WGA loses any power to negotiate and stops being worth the dues. And later it’s the directors and the actors and the IA and nobody who works in the industry can count on any fixed rate, overtime, lunch, pension and health plan or anything else that so many in so many other industries have already lost as the giant conglomerates get ever more powerful and the people who work in the industry get weaker and weaker.
If the writers weren’t prepared to stand up to that kind of power and dig in for a long, hard fight they should have just accepted the AMPTP’s proposal and quietly watched decades of labor negotiating go down the toilet. They should have just been the canary in the coal mine for people who work in other unionized facets of the industry so they would know to start looking now for a different line of work.
The conglomerates are enormously powerful but they are not impervious. If everybody who works in the industry, everybody who benefits today from hard work and terrible fights of previous generations’ unions, can stick together and put the greater good of the industry, of their co-workers and of all the industry families today and in the future, then maybe they can force the AMPTP to actually negotiate in good faith. It’s do-able but it won’t be easy. Not with the power of the $50-million-a-year moguls and multi-national corporations and the trade press against us. Anybody who thought it would be easy was crazy. It will be hard.
But without fighting this historic battle, without going after everyone who breaks ranks, without being prepared to outlast the conglomerates, the writers may as well go crawling back and begin the process of the de-unionizing of the entertainment industry.
It’s not impossible, but it won’t happen overnight.
Nikki, your coverage is wonderful. Without you, a lot of people might still think they could get news from Variety or the Reporter. But you sure seem niave when you are “shocked, simply shocked” to find the moguls have no intention at this point of engaging in anything resembling a good faith, respectful bargaining session with the writers. They’re waiting for the whole thing to fall apart based on their contempt for the people who work in the industry and they’re prepared to wait a long, long time. The only question for the people who work in the industry is: Is their contempt for us justified?
“Punish the writers”? So we’re not dealing with adults. In any case, since the money lost to the moguls in 1988 is what is allowing them to dig in now, it doesn’t make sense to give them any more financial leverage this time. Capitulating before they’ve taken losses would just add to the problem next time around. This is not punishment; in lieu of negotiations, it’s our only way to keep up.
CM
Why will the guild split when “important players” go Fi Core, if the “important players” in the room with Katzenberg are not going to split? Why won’t there be more requests for waivers as small players find themselves going out of business because of the CEOs’ intransigence? Everybody can’t write off huge losses, and I wonder if even the big corporations have stock holders who are into destructive losses, which are apparently to be sustained in order to “punish” the writers. The talks are right where they were before.
It’s clear the DGA needs to get behind the WGA. That’s the only message that the Producer’s are going to take seriously at this point if this info is correct.
With no pilot season, there isn’t going to be a 2008/2009 TV season, so this isn’t any new news. The moguls’ determination to write off the 08/09 season is not only unreasonable, it’s irresponsible, and I can’t see this happening. ABC has Grey’s and Desperate Housewives, and three shows that hit this fall in Private Practice, Pushing Daisies, and Dirty Sexy Money. So there is no way that ABC is going to go over an entire year without any new episodes of these shows. Separately, if Sarah Connor Chronicles becomes a hit for FOX, there’s no way they’re going to go over a year without making more episodes, especially since they are hurting for scripted hits. NBC has absolutely NO hit scripted show, and NO hit non-scripted flagship – they would TRULY be fucked.
There is ONE immediate way for the AMPTP to negotiate a deal, and that is for SAG actors working on movies and going on talk shows to conduct a sickout. That is the ONLY way because then the networks/studios would truly be aversely affected. Alan Rosenberg, you have the industry’s future in your hands. Help us PLEASE.
As I sit here on Xmas Eve, juggling bills,and trying to reinvent my BTL sound mixing career, all I can say is, I’ve already started mixing reality TV, and there were three camera, three sound, and a couple of producers. That’s it. And now we’re looking at a new year with no possibility of a let up. I supported the writer’s when they struck, (even walked the line). But with their obsession with reality TV, a lost cause even before the strike, I really feel they are all drinking kool-aid. They have been so hopelessly outmatched by the AMPTP (Big Media didn’t get big by being dumb and nice) that my only hope is the DGA gets a deal going. In the meantime, I’m day playing on reality TV. I’m thinking of some ideas to pitch too.
Merry Strikemas.
Once again, Nikki is being used…and perhaps Katzenberg as well, and the terror tactics continue. The moguls threaten nuclear winter to “punish” the WGA membership. What kind of businessmen think like this: to throw away billions in ad revenue rather arrive at a very modest deal with Hollywood talent that will ensure another two decades of peace and prosperity? I don’t believe even they have the power to thumb their noses at the advertisers and shareholders to whom they report. What in the world are they going to say to them when asked why they have blown up an entire industry: “We showed them!”?
The scenario about the guild splitting “just like ‘88″ is disinformation being spread by the CEOs. Just because they say the guild will fall apart, it doesn’t mean the guild will fall apart. It’s a scare tactic and a manipulation, and it seems to be the talking point of the moment — there was a big article in the LAT about it last week (and none of us who wrote letters to the editor about it had them published). But the scenario isn’t a description of what is happening. It’s a description of what the AMPTP wants to happen. The trick is not to believe their hype and not to crack.
AMPTP would make horrible farmers. They spend all their money from last season’s corps on themselves leaving none to reinvest in buying seeds for spring fields, nor money for fertilizer nor the farmer to plant, let along till his corps. Instead they take their most valuable commodity, their airspace (land) and litter it with an endless array of circus tents and carneys (game shows and reality TV) – then wonder where their buyers have gone and their formerly bountiful fields lay barren.
Yes, AMPTP is changing the face of TV and perhaps soon, that of film as well, but I doubt they will be real thrilled with the income from absolute crop failure.
And the new rainmakers, Google & MSN etc., farmers of this century, carefully tend to their new crops with vast amounts of seed money invested in the land of the Internet… and DVD sales from those lands… all out of AMPTPs hands.
Anyone want to buy a season of a game show on DVD? Or even download it?
Nikki, we fear once again you are being used.
This is more doom and gloom psychological warfare to diminish WGA morale, and a desperate effort to stir up resentment against WGA.
Men are so emotional and they let their dick-measuring get in the way of smart business decisions. These men are particularly incompetent and shareholders should mutiny and overthrow them immediately. This could otherwise be a time of enormous profit for these companies – instead they are torpedoing an entire business because of their fragile egos (waa, waa, you made us look bad, WGA, waa waa)
If we were shareholders in these congloms, we’d be furious that these 8 guys were deliberately tanking our investment because of a dick-measuring contest.
We divested of all media holdings a while back because it was clear these guys don’t know what they’re doing – if we were currently shareholders, we’d divest immediately because it’s clear these men are too emotional and do not know what they are doing.
If these old farts will torpedo the entire industry (because they’re pissed that their authority was challenged!), they have far MORE to lose than WGA.
Don’t get psyched out by more of this posturing. Let them go down in history as the morons who torpedoed an entire industry.
Nikki–
I don’t think there’e any reason for you to apologize for anything. If there is still anyone out there in the guild who believes there is any amount of striking or holding out that will bring a “better” deal they are as wrong now as they were when we went out on strike and, at this point, deserve what they have coming. This strike has been fueled by a lack of sophistication and a grand naivate. I am a long-time, heavy dues-paying member of the guild and I have had it. Not only have we cost ourselves paychecks and seasons, but we’ve hastened a great distress on the television buisness that we’ll all be reeling from and talking about for years to come. My only hope is that the MORE INTELLIGENT and sophisticated Director’s Guild will make enough of a deal that the guild feels pressured to close one as well. If not, there may cease to be a guild from what I can sense among high-level writers and showrunners. At this point, maybe that’s not a bad thing….
The more reality shows ordered, the greater the blessing to WGA.
How much reality do you think viewers can take before they reject all of it wholesale? Like too much of anything, they will get sick of it and turn away from tv altogether.
We core reality producers are NOT happy about all the reality being ordered.
By overdoing reality, these idiot “moguls” will obliterate the “reality” genre.
You know, I just got here on the East Coast. Philly to be exact and I tried to drum up a convo about the strike and the overwhelming consensus is that “WHO the hell cares about the strike, TV sucks anyway”
I got upset and tried to defend the cause but sadly I was outnumbered. I will say that the groups favorite scripted shows were Martin and Seinfeld and then it turned to this whole thing about if the strike had occurred in the 90s it would have been a problem.
Maybe people don’t care because they are not really that satisfied with what TV today has become. I mean its mostly “cops with bionic powers who chase secret agents who dont know their secret until they die and a forensic pathologist can look them over meanwhile, the entire staff of hospitals manage to save lives despite the drama and the husbands go home to wives who are desperate.”
Will a contract agreement bring about change in TV?????
We knew, in our hearts that this was coming. We’re not fighting the same studios and networks that our predecessors did. We’re fighting corporations, just like the ones that have gutted other industries and stolen their employees pension and health funds. These guys are out to destroy the WGA. What’s next, farming the writing out to third world countries? Don’t laugh. It CAN happen. Maybe not Thailand and Vietnam, but what about England?
We are going to have to change tactics. I’m going to mull this over during the Christmas holidays when the studio that owes me money hasn’t sent me my checks, so I’m half-starving. Well, I work in other fields until these fucker at the studios starve to death. I can draw comics. I can sell suits. I can direct theater. What, exactly, can a film studio executive do?
Oh, right. Sell kiddie porn.
Well, there’s nothing left to say. The next move for the writers I believe, is for them to go to the people, the fans. I for one, speaking as a fan would be super pissed to go a whole year not seeing my favorite shows. That would break forever my viewing habits with TV. I would NOT watch any replacement reality crap. I am not watching it now (Battle of the choirs? Come the fuck on). Get the fans on your side and you may have a chance. Stockholders watch TV too. And – I know Hollywood hates The Oscars, but, come on, we’re talking tradition here. Can’t get rid of that! The other option is, for the writers to start going en-mass to the internet on their own. Bypass the producers. They’re a dead entity already. And they know it. They just hope you don’t. 15 year olds with a web cam know it.
So, this has never been, or will it be, about the well-being of the writers, the below-the-line people, their families, the Los Angeles economy or the health of the industry.
To the AMPTP, this has only been about winning. They expected the WGA to lay down, they didn’t. And now they are so angry that they didn’t get their way, they want to punish everyone for daring to have a say in their own careers.
And they might just be powerful enough, rich enough, and arrogant enough to get away with it.
Because now it sounds like that even if they give the DGA a deal that the writers would take, they won’t offer it to the writers. They won’t be happy until the crush the union.
A dark day for workers everywhere.
So six months ago when the Guild is broken and there’s still no deal are you clowns going to still be clinging to your “psy-ops” nonsense?
Was about to write about “just another transparent AMPTP psyche-out campaign,” then saw Marc Guggenheim 11:08 had it covered
Whew, good job, Big Media. Remember how you guys worked so hard to position yourselves as “content providers” the last few years? Yeah, well, good job — you guys just cut off your fuel supply. And speaking as a young twentysomething, I gotta say I’m not terribly worried about finding other ways to occupy my time. I’ll miss the good tv shows and movies, though.
PS: I’m not going to watch your crappy game shows.
Because they are assholes. No, seriously. They are the type of men that will throw away that kind of money to spite writers, just because they feel that, at all cost, they will NOT be pushed around by mere writers.
I believe this is all bluster from the AMPTP. We all know the egos involved in this strike. But I certainly don’t believe they moguls are ready to scrap not just this TV season, but next. They would also be sacrificing all movie features for the ‘09 and ‘10 years. They stand to lose way more money than they care to admit. I’m not saying the sides will get together any time soon, but a scenario will arise that will calm both sides down a bit and a settlement can be reached. Maybe Warner Bros. doesn’t need scripted product, but CBS will cease to exist if this tramples next TV season. Nikki, any chance this info was leaked to you as subterfuge? I wouldn’t put any of this past these guys and we’ve all been duped before. Stand strong WGA.
riddle me this — they aren’t going to end up throwing away all those billions – and the next two seasons won’t be lost because there will be a split in the guild before that — this is a game of chicken and we will lose if we don’t change our negotiating strategy right now. Do you think showrunners are going to hold out longer than multinational conglomerates? And once there is one defection, the Fi-Core floodgates will open and it will be chaos. We blew our wad when we struck. I hope I’m wrong about this.
Sure the other side are a bunch of this and that and the other – but seriously, does anyone really believe it’s always the other guy’s fault?
What if the so called shills are right? What if we overplayed our hand – NOT in terms of what we are asking for, but in HOW we are asking for it. I am not debating that what we are seeking is fair – I’m questioning the negotiating strategy of our leadership.
I resent that this has become a pissing contest and no matter how hard we try, our dicks will never be as big as General Electric’s. And I’m okay with that. I like my dick. I don’t need to prove anything with it. I just want to work. Like the tens of thousands of others out there who are currently unemployed. Merry Christmas to all.
Hey. If any of you are looking for any last-minute gift ideas for me, I have one. I’d like Nick Counter, the AMPTP boss, right here tonight. If you can locate Gavin Polone… bring him along as well.
I want him brought from his happy holiday slumber over there in Aspen with all the other rich people and I want him brought right here, with a big ribbon on his head, and I want to look him straight in the eye and I want to tell him what a cheap, lying, no-good, rotten, four-flushing, low-life, snake-licking, dirt-eating, inbred, overstuffed, ignorant, blood-sucking, dog-kissing, brainless, dickless, hopeless, heartless, fat-ass, bug-eyed, stiff-legged, spotty-lipped, worm-headed sack of monkey shit he is.
Hallelujah. Holy shit. Where’s the Tylenol?
- Sloop John B.
So… a group of showrunners were approached to make a back channel deal, but even they didn’t want to sell us out to the point the moguls were happy. Other than that, the strike continues, and will continue until the AMPTP gets serious. I don’t see this as bad news. I see this as what happens in a strike. The moguls want us to think they are taking things personally and playing hard ball and willing to trash their own season. Truth is, when their stock prices drop, when they have to give back ad revenue, they will start to talk. Writers just need to hang tough, as they seem to be doing.
No surprise to me at all. I work at one of the studios and the inside feeling is hunker down, its gonna be a long ride and we are gonna change the business so make sure what you do here is needed.
Friends from other studios are getting the same vibe. I sadly feel the writers forgot who they were dealing with. Big, huge money making machines…no time for caring about the little guy..ever.
they can’t seriously be willing to throw away billions of dollars to prove a point don’t they have shareholders
everyone stop watching TV until this strike is over
I tend to disbelieve these apocalyptic scenarios spun by the CEO’s for at least two reasons. The first is that in the short run they assume there’s a wide gulf between the DGA and the WGA. But while residuals may mean less to the ADs in the DGA than they do to junior writers in the WGA, they still add up to just as many dollars at risk for DGA members, and particularly TV directors. At the same time, the loss of AD positions in scripted television to non-union PA positions in Reality and on the Internet, if unchecked, will have a truly catastrophic impact on those very same ADs who in the CEO’s daydreams “don’t care about residuals”. Which is perhaps why, if knowledgeable rumor is to be believed (although it hasn’t been widely reported), the DGA has quietly pursued its own strategy of organizing Reality, and done it with more success than the WGA.
These considerations may also explain the careful wording of the DGA’s December 13th statement contemplating the start of its own negotiations with the
Companies. That statement opened with the observation that, “All along, it has been the sincere hope of the DGA that these talks would be successful and lead to a fair deal for talent”, with no mention of any concern for fairness to the Companies. And the statement closed with the warning that the DGA would commence talks, “only if an appropriate basis for negotiations can be established”, in other words, only if the Companies were willing to drop their intransigent non-negotiable demands.
The second, longer term reason I believe these apocalyptic vows to engage in mutually assured destruction are empty ideological rhethoric by the CEO’s is that the competitive climate really is rapidly changing for the studios. The major media companies’ oligopoly has rested on their control of the physical distribution infrastructure for feature films and of the broadcast infrastructure for TV. But when anyone can distribute digital prints into theaters, and digital downloads into homes over cable-based and telephone-based broadband systems, who will need the old studios if they no longer enjoy good relationships with creative talent?
If the Media CEOs willfully destroy their own TV and feature production next year, other investors, less ideological and more entrepreneurial than the present
ossified studios, will enter the market all the sooner and with even more devistating effect. In short, the assured destruction won’t at all be mutual: the studios will suffer permanent damage, having locked themselves themselves out of the future, while the Guild talent they depend on but have estranged will migrate very profitably to new media companies more likely to be headquartered in Seattle or Wellington or even Beijing than they are in old Hollywood.
I agree that this seems tactical.
*Katzenberg runs a non-union shop.
*There are hundreds of millions, if not the billions mentioned above, at stake in revenues and…
*Major shareholders to keep happy when the stocks start to slide.
Also worth remembering that anything the DGA negotiates can function as precedent for WGA and SAG, if acceptable to either or both. If not, WGA will stay out and SAG will go out. DGA has the opportunity now to lead and make it work for everyone, or settle for themselves and still have to wait out the settlement of the strike that’s on and the strike that will start on July 1.
I normally applaud your reporting, Nikki, but I think you’re being played to disseminate Katzenberg’s scare tactics here. So suddenly the moguls are in absolute control, the guild has no leverage and the showrunners are abandoning the rank and file to go Fi-Core, and we’ll NEVER get a deal if we don’t come crawling back on our knees now? Please. It’s an AMPTP wet dream and I’m calling bullshit.
It only takes an iota of common sense to see that the companies are hemorrhaging money and it’s only going to get worse for them. We keep hearing how they have billions to weather the strike and we don’t… but I’m pretty sure my mortgage isn’t a half-million like the credits NBC has been issuing to advertisers. And as for the mass reality order we keep reading about… look no further than Phenomenon and that Clash of the Choirs to see how that’s going to fare.
If showrunners make a back channel deal, we WILL boycott their shows
The WGA’s fight has become symbolic of all workers’ fights across the nation
The strike is not being “waged on the backs of the showrunners,” no matter how nice a phrase that is. Everyone is on strike. And if showrunners like Carlton Cuse and Marc Cherry went back to work to “finish their producing duties,” that means they got PAID for it. Which means the strike is not “on their backs.” It’s in their wallets.
If the gentlemen who run the studios are willing to jettison this television season and next, as well as the approaching shutdown in film production, their decision will certainly have an adverse affect on the los angeles economy. and while this will cause my home to go by two or three hundred thousand, it’s going to cause THEIR HOMES to plummet by millions. I hope they’re financially savvy enough to understand the personal value of a few million dollars.
I have a question and I honestly don’t know the answer, so I’m hoping someone can help me out here. I’ve heard many people saying that once the ad revenue slows down, the profit loss for the studios will be too big for them to ignore. But I keep thinking – isn’t the cost of producing Tom Arnold’s Redneck Marriage reality show (or whatever it’s called) far cheaper than the cost of paying the cast and crew salaries of, say, Lost? Obviously, the studios make more cumulatively than they spend in production, and they’re likely to take a major hit when viewers find their favorite scripted show gone, but surely they’re going to find SOME companies willing to continue advertising.
Of course, I’m hoping the companies take a financial hit to instigate negotiations and a return to work. I’m just curious as to how great a hit it will be…
the katzenberg story is TRUE. i was there. every word in this piece is accurate. unfortunately. this isn’t amptp mind-f***ing us — it’s reality. they just don’t give a shit. network tv is a tiny piece of their overall business. sadly, the wga doesn’t understand this. you can’t hurt a vertically intergrated multi-billion dollar entity with picket signs. make no mistake, folks, this is an unmitigated disaster.
@Marjorie David 12:57
right on!
the guild is not being split or destroyed.
just a bunch of hysterical misinfo planted by AMPTP’s embarrassingly inept PR agents.
kids, they are desperate if they are resorting to these low-tech tactics
hang tight, doing great WGA
Sorry, I’m not buying any of this. This is more of the AMPTP’s scare tactics and terrorism. See it for what it is, people. And don’t let it interfere with your holidays. If you do, they win. ‘Nuff said.
I figured as much.
As I mentioned in another comments section, the AMPTP is actually in charge in this regard because, until the writers figure out a way to distribute their product and make a profit from it, they’re going to have to sell to the studios if they want to make a living.
Whereas, there is no shortage of writers who would give a kidney to sell a script to the studios.
Supply and demand and all that.
While I do believe the writers deserve to get more money than they have been getting (I’m a writer myself but non WGA), I do firmly believe that this strike will have industry changing results and I don’t see an end in sight quite frankly.
I used to think it might end in June but now I’m thinking it won’t end at all.
Both sides have gone too far. There are only so many times you can tell Daddy to go fuck himself before he eventually kicks you out of the house permanently and that’s pretty much what this situation has turned into alas.
L8showrunner:
nice try, you transparent paid shill. you think someone who ran a network show would use a ten-year-old girl’s L8 construction? UR kidding, right? OMG!
Plus, someone who understood television enough to have run a show would not have chosen a name that confuses you with Rob Burnett, the Late Show showrunner.
You guys are so bad at what you do that you have set the cause of the AMPTP back by months. And no wonder Hillary’s campagin is falling apart if the democratic shill-factory is so bad at what they do.
Sorry, I’m not buying any of this. This is more of the AMPTP’s scare tactics and terrorism. See it for what it is, people. And don’t let it interfere with your holidays. If you do, they win. ‘Nuff said.
i think lackland is essentially right. Which means that the DGA will make a deal – the same deal we will end up taking – which means our leadership will never be able to claim victory. Which means their strategy was misguided from the start. Writers sticking together doesn’t mean going down with the ship.
I hope you all agree that sidewalk picketing is now a waste of time and energy. Spend those three or four hours each day creating new content for the web. There is no further need for physical picketing. Spend the rest of your time each day writing your dream scripts on spec.
Picketing does nothing here because we aren’t blue collar factory workers able to shut down an assembly line. Far better to start making deals with internet outlets for brand new programs that the studios and networks won’t ever get.
As for the moguls they don’t give a shit what the stockholders think. They all have their golden parachute clauses in their contracts. So it won’t really matter to them if they get fired. They will “segue” to producing deals or relax and enjoy their days on the golf course.
As for the Guild in its current form it’s already obsolete. Seeing it split apart wouldn’t necessarily be a bad thing. There should be three new writers guilds each with the power to do their own deals for their members. You’d have the super A-list millionaire writers, the mid-level working staff writers and the bottom of the ladder younger or older or just unlucky to be out of work writers.
This would be a healthy and natural evolution. Let the show runners and the big money script doctors go fi-core and do their own deals. The mid-level writers can and will quickly do the same. The out of work group doesn’t really matter at the moment. When they become more successful they can move up the ladder.
As it currently fuctions the WGA is constrained by all of its different members incomes and productivity. This isn’t the auto workers union where everyone makes the same hourly wage for working in the factory based on their seniority on the assembly line.
The guild needs to undergo a radical change the same way the networks and studios need to be forced into changing. They will always act in their own best financial interest. It’s time for writers to do the same thing.
oh well
at least i still have stargate atlantis
Okay, okay, my last post was rash. But I hope to God something happens. I do still believe AMPTP has underestimated the writers. But frankly, I’d be thrilled with a DGA deal (a good one, mind) “forcing” a deal for the WGA. Or the advertisers or the courts or the combined power of the SGA and WGA together…anything. I appologize for being hopeless before, but it’s turning into a hopeless situation. The trend needs to turn, and fast. That’s what’ll keep my faith.
Personally, I don’t get why people view Niki’s piece as “psy-ops”. It’s naive to not take it at face value, like all other news reported here. We’ll just have to wait and see how the DGA does in January and hope they don’t find themselves staring at the AMPTP’s same stony expressions when they make their arguments for New Media. Niki’s correct to state the WGA has nothing left to bargain, but honestly, they didn’t start with much. What it really comes down to is will. Stay strong WGA. It may not happen the way you want, but a better deal will materialize, and in the end, that’s saying something in this age of corporate domination.
Advertising bucks are all that really matter to the AMPTP. I completely stand by the WGA. I wish the showrunners would band together in solidarity and directly reach out to the fans of their individual shows and beg them to turn off their tv sets for just one week. If the showrunner of the show I blog about asked the show’s fans to unplug their tv sets then they would. If the showrunners of the other big $$ shows did the same thing it would make a bigger statement than pencils and silent videos (not that those are bad ideas). Send a clear and unified message from the viewers to the advertisers that the AMPTP gravy train needs to stop.
Nuts!
They can huff and puff, but shareholders and the government will get involved come Feb. Watch!
Would be cool if a Mark Cuban type shook the tree and started a studio of his own and gave the writers a fair deal. We need to find a way around these greedy mogul jerks.
-writer, not yet in guild
Another WGA member wrote:
These guys are out to destroy the WGA. What’s next, farming the writing out to third world countries? Don’t laugh. It CAN happen. Maybe not Thailand and Vietnam, but what about England?
England is not a third world country, as you seem to be implying–geez, dude, two months on strike and you’re being bested by a fanfic writer. Rusty much?
As for the AMTP, all I have to say is: bring on the virtual seasons!
This is all nothing.
They aren’t coming back to the table on Christmas Eve?! They want to enjoy their vacations?! They have no need to get people back to work when no one will be working anyway?!
This is merely no new info disguised as new info to make writers panic.
Nothing will happen for the rest of the year. We’ve known that since December 7th. Ignore this.
According to the strike-breaking playbook, we knew they were going to deliver another spirit-breaking attack right beofre Christmas. They’re right on schedule.
They’re also malicious assholes. This can’t be good business.
A humble suggestion to showrunners:
When you stick together you have real power. Use it. Meet with outside investors and create a studio the way it should be, even while pursuing these negotiations. Even if it’s just a small side thing on the Internet, plant a flag for the present and the future of all writers. Create something that benefits both yourselves and all future writers to come. Go down in history as heroes to all writers.
Dropping this on Christmas Eve? Just how naive does the AMPTP think we are, not to see through such tactics? Honestly, I logged onto the site today expecting something exactly like this. Also, I gotta say – I suspect there are some AMPTP shills on this site who are merely claiming to be WGA. “L8showrunner”, for instance?
I’ve just about had it with all this posturing and pussy-footing. If the Congloms have stacked the deck, it’s time to burn this mother down. It’s time for the DGA and SAG to walk–NOT when their paper tiger contracts are up, but now. If there’s a message to be sent, let’s all send it loud and clear.
Anonymous 2;13 wrote “Picketing does nothing here because we aren’t blue collar factory workers able to shut down an assembly line”
mp/tv production is the assembly line
tv production has halted [reality production is a makeshift step-child that viewers will soon wholly reject]
feature production trickling down to a halt
picketing gives a public face to the issue, is a symbolic center, and keeps writers in physical unified contact.
moderatewriter calls it like it is. I’m a WGA member who believes we’re owed everything the Guild is asking for, times ten. But this isn’t 1955 and Wasserman is long gone. These multinationals are so big, so diversified, they can afford to write off the 07-08 TV season and development for 08-09 as well as features and maybe much more. These moguls, in their minds are fighting The War Against Terrorism®. To them we’re Al-Qaeda — and you never negotiate with terrorists. They think if they “give in” to the WGA’s demands, they’ll be perceived as weak and soon all the unions in town will be coming after them, shutting down Hollywood every few years with heady talk of “union power” and “kicking corporate ass.” I don’t believe this is what would really happen — just that the moguls fear it *could* happen if the “radical, strike-happy” WGA leadership gets its way. They’ve decided they have no choice but to ride this one out, as painful as it may be. We dropped our only nuke on November 5th — once we struck, our leverage evaporated. This will not end well for the Writers Guild of America.
The advertisers are already furious at the revenue they’ve lost. Shareholders won’t be happy either…
hey, showrunner mike
no one said the report wasn’t “true”
it is true that AMPTP is so desperate they have to resort to scare tactic press releases disguised as behind-the-scenes info
bottom line – AMPTP doesn’t exist in a vacuum
they are public companies
their companies are taking a hit and it will only get worse for them
they will not be permitted to tank their companies and flee on a golden parachute.
whether these ceo’s are fired or not, shareholders, the free market, and eventually the government will intervene because amptp has created such a large-scale disaster.
meanwhile, nature abhors a vacuum and writers are evolving into new workaround ventures leaving amptp out of the loop.
history will look back on these 8 ceo’s as utter morons who threw out the golden goose, and shot themselves in the foot.
to marjorie david and sr – you guys really knock me out – throughout this entire process you and others like you refuse to recognize that there is, and always was, a split in the guild as to the negotiating tactics of our leadership.
And when we voice our conflicts you label us as shills – like the Bush administration saying that if you don’t support the war, you don’t support the troops, and are therefore unpatriotic.
I’m a “patriotic” writer – and I wholeheartedly disagree with the negotiating tactics taken on my behalf by Patrick Verrone and David Young.
I’m sorry to say, but I think that as long as you continue to blindly believe that your leadership is infallible, as long as you dismiss dissenting voices as those belonging to shills, you will continue to foster our defeat. Debate is good for this guild. I say it as a proud, dues paying member.
Here is what will happen:
In January the DGA will start negotiating. It will take some time, but they will make a deal. It will be a decent deal. It will be a better deal than they would’ve gotten if the WGA had not gone on strike because of the extra leverage.
The AMPTP cannot afford to have the DGA go on strike because they have been calling the WGA crazy. You can’t be considered crazy if everyone else acts the same way. Furthermore, without the directors there is no more film production. Not much left. Even some reality shows use DGA members.
The DGA can’t make a bad deal, because they WGA has made it very clear that it will not accept the same deal if it sucks. The DGA can’t afford at some point later — even after a long strike — to have the WGA get a BETTER deal than them. They can;t even risk it. It would break the long-standing tradition of pattern bargaining and lower the status of directors compared to writers — something they already feel and detest in television.
The DGA will make very sure that the WGA will take any deal before they agree to it.
So… both the AMPTP and the DGA need to make a deal in the new year.
Doing so will allow the AMPTP to call Patric Verrone an idiot and say that he could’ve gotten the same deal four months ago if he hadn’t been a stike-happy hothead. (Of course none of that is true — the strike will have created the leverage necessary to ultimately get that deal — see above). Either way, the AMPTP will feel happy they can stick it to him. He’ll have done his job. And everyone will go back to work.
There is no way a WGA deal happens first. So don’t sweat anything that says talks are not happening. They won’t.
As an outsider I can see the following:
1. The strike is happening because scripted entertainment on TV is not the draw it used to be. Too many “edgy” shows following the Grant Tinker strategy to it’s natural evolution: 2 billionaire viewers, have made reality junk competitive with scripted tv at much lower costs.
Even with audience fragmentation there is no reason for top shows to pull in a measly 20 million viewers. Most TV is elitist junk in a populist market. Hence corps affording the strike.
2. Outsourcing. I seriously doubt corps will throw away this season, pilot season, upfronts, and next season. They probably will find people abroad to write, act, and direct new shows. For a lot cheaper.
3. Splits. IMHO it’s unrealistic to expect show-runners to give up millions of dollars in support of the strike when they’ve won a once-in-a-lifetime lottery ticket. My guess is plenty will go back to work.
4. I think writers should take ideas to the web — but it won’t be easy. You’ll have to work fast, cheap, and deliver populist not elitist content, with the audience telling you what to do.
I have to agree with other commentators that it was a mistake to run this story just before Christmas, Nikki. It is blatant scare tactics. I saw Murdoch (who I’m sure is not entirely remote from strategizing on the AMPTP side) destroy the print union in Britain during the 1980s when he bought The Times (of London), then moved it to Wapping so that journalists and printers could work in the same facility and the newspaper could be printed on-site. There were running, bloody battles between picketers and police in riot gear – this at the height of the Thatcher years (she was a huge supporter of Murdoch’s and vice versa).
Obviously the studios and networks are going to play hardball, but I doubt things will go as far as they did at Wapping (There Will Not Be Blood, unless PT Anderson redraws the picket lines), and there’s one thing the studios can’t do without us…make movies or good TV programs.
It’s going to be tough, but if we cave now, the whole strike was a waste of time, huge effort and great sacrifice on the part of many people (many of them not WGA members or beneficiaries). To post this on the eve of Christmas (for some) and major festive celebrations (for others) hardly serves the seasonal spirit, even if it is accurate – which, in many respects, I doubt. Better to post the share prices of each individual studio and network since the strike began…and see how they fare over the coming months. CEOs are not immune from censure, especially when they are running public corporations. And, even with a hardly sympathetic (to the writers) FCC, the prospect of investigations of media collusion and monopoly may become a genuine threat in 2008. Happy New Year AMPTP!!
What is Fi Core?
Are we forgetting Immelt’s comments about the hit that GE — GE, supposedly the most invulnerable of the companies — is already taking? Contradicting his boy Zucker’s protest-too-much claims that they’re doing GREAT and NEVER BETTER during this strike?
Are we forgetting that the shareholders and advertisers combined are starting to get pretty damn antsy?
Rest assured — these might be major conglomerates, but they do answer to shareholders and advertisers, and the advertisers have already made it clear… they ain’t paying big bucks to put up ads for American Gladiator type crap.
Much of the naysayer few showrunners who are spreading around e-mails are, coincidentally, married to – who? You guessed it. Studio and network executives. I was sitting across from a showrunner at drinks last week, and he started trashing the guild, and then I said — what should they have done differently? Should they have taken the lousy offer that the AMPTP was offering us at the beginning?
The sole mistake — the sole one — the Guild made was the hiccup of doing the rally at Freemantle.
My friends on Wall Street have said that the large shareholders are already pissed and have already said to the CEOs to “stop this” and “make a deal.”
Just a matter of time…
These are companies that polute entire third world villages until everyone has cancer just to manufacture cheap textiles to sell in the USA, then hide behind the fact that they followed the pollution standards of the host country. To believe they have any sense of right and wrong is childish. To expect anything more from them than a whole hearted attempt to break the unions is naive.
ok, alltogether now – “shill alert, shill alert”…there, now don’t you feel better? Of course I’m a shill cause I am saying something that you don’t agree with, but here goes:
“shareholders and the government will get involved come February”…yeah, right.
The Government won’t do crap, we all know that.
And shareholders don’t have a voice…don’t like it, sell your stock.
General Electric makes light bulbs and refrigerators, and everyone knows they will dump NBC after the 2008 Summer Olympics makes them more billions.
Time Warner makes all their money selling you cable tv. They are still making tons of money on their features (”I Am Legend”, etc.), so whatever they are losing on tv isn’t hurting too much.
Companies NEED to advertise. Thursday nights are the biggest night. Sure, networks aren’t going to get 20 million people to watch their reality shows (except for “American Idol”), but they will get 5-10 million viewers, which is A TON more than any internet program can get.
Face the facts writers…you blew it big time by striking. Networks not paying your salaries and spending 7 million per episode of “Lost”, “Grey’s Anatomy”, “Heroes”, etc. is a blessing for them. Most of the shows on network tv were doing lousy in the ratings anyway…why not spend $700,000 on a show and get the same lousy ratings?
Happy Holidays!
the CEOs are deeply entrenched in their desire to punish the WGA for daring to defy them…. the moguls are determined to write off not just the rest of this TV season (including the Back 9 of scripted series), but also pilot season and the 2008/2009 schedule as well
If this is true, sanity has truly left the building and the shareholders need to oust these people immediately. Because if vanity replaces greed as a motivation for corporate action, we are all truly ****ed. Greed is rational, vanity is not.
Everyone’s always saying that this particular moment is the one defining moment, then a week later another one-defining-moment manages to pop up.
Nobody expected any real negotiations to go on between the 25th and the 1st, after that the AMPTP will want to look at what kind of deal it can expect from the DGA, and there will be a bunch of defining moments during that, then a DGA deal will be struck offering up another defining moment. Yadda, yadda, yadda.
We’ve had Friedman Units — now we can also have Finke Moments.
Lakers’ season ticket holders should take their comments straight to Moonves at the next home game — he’s not that hard to find.
The CEO’s will lose television as we know it to Google and Microsoft. Let’s see the CEO’s try to push THEM around.
A little holiday lesson: Google and Microsoft are pirates. Microsoft stole from Apple, who stole from Xerox.
Question: Why did Google invest a billion or so in YouTube?
Because YouTube is a gargantuan pirate ship. Google steal loads and loads of loads content that the studios sweat blood to make, then broadcasts it, and then charges for advertising while broadcasting it. Pretty brilliant, eh? Say what you want about the studios and networks, but at least they make it the old-fashioned way. Should writers get a better piece of the pie? Of course!
So . . .
WHY in GOD’S name would Google or Microsoft invest in a TV pilot? A series? Or a movie for that matter?
These digital pirates are cancers that eat up what’s around them. See the music industry.
Don’t get me wrong, they’ll be delighted to broadcast your show. And they have billions of viewers. However, you’ll have to write, cast, shoot, direct, and edit the damn thing with your own cash.
So if and when the studios crumble, well . . . careful what ye wish for, me friend. Happy holidays.
Point of fact: I want writers to get fair internet residuals
Point of opinion: The WGA leadership has overplayed their hand. The media moguls are holding a hardline because the business has gotten so narrow-margin. This is ALL about costs and has nothing to do with emotion, greed, or groin-size, despite what the angry writers here think.
Network TV is a dying model. Look at the Nielsen 2007 top 10 lists, available on their webpage…of the top 10 shows, 1-5 are all reality and all double the size of the top largest scripted shows.
The moguls are milking their cash cows, network television, for all it is worth.
Go ahead – strike a deal for peanuts with MSN, Google, Apple, etc etc. The studios will copy the model and you’ll all take the work. This is not me trying to sound vindictive- this is a fair prediction of what is to come.
Hollywood writing is a HIT DRIVEN business. You need 10 flops for every hit that pays the bill. The WGA seems to forget they get paid for the 10 flops that the studio loses money developing, producing, and marketing. What makes anyone think funnyordie.com will be any different? I think the grosses for ‘Walk Hard’ prove that point.
The WGA forgets that no other entity will hire, employ, and otherwise fund thousands of their members. I’m not saying they need to lay down and die, i’m just stunned they would counsel a strike and cut off their revenue so quickly…they should have kept working and worked out a parallel deal with online firms while the AMPTP stalled.
to moderatewriter 3:30
seems to us their comments did not dissuade healthy guild debate, but addressed the misinformation that the guild will soon be obliterated
perhaps you are perceived as a shill because your comments are kneejerk defensive, inaccurate and strident
next time, take more time to read carefully before you go off
Dear Showrunners,
Do me a favor and put your egos on hold. I do not want you making “deals” with ANYONE. It is not your job. This strike is not your show to “run”. As far as Mr. K, goes, I can’t believe that you really think the guy wants a good deal for us. I’ve been on the other side of table negotiating with him and he’s tough. HE’S NOT ON OUR SIDE. Get it Showrunners? He’s anti union, pro-Dreamworks.
It’s time for all of you idiots with your united showrunner caps to take them off and just be a writer. Keep your mouths closed and cary the sign like the rest of us.
Sorry Nikki, I think you were played. The fact that you are reporting this on Christmas Eve is evidence enough. Be smarter next time.
We must STAY STRONG in January. Together we will get a deal.
Klaatu, 1000% correct.
hey, showrunner…
wall street doesn’t care one tiny bit about this srike. trust me. google “wall street and wga strike” and see for yourself. network tv is a minuscule portion of the overall revenue. if you’re wating for shareholder action, you’ll be waiting forever. one more time, homebiy, THEY DON’T CARE.
For those of you who don’t believe the moguls are serious about writing off the entire season becasue of the pressure from stockholders… You might want to check the stock prices of theses conglomerates! Not a single one has taken a hit since this strike started. This is a fact. So, the stockholder’s by and large are NOT concerned by the financial effect of the strike. In fact, Fortune magazine last week named GE (parent of NBC)a top 10 pick for 2008. So, please stop sounding ignorant by suggesting this strike is or will apply financial pressure on these conglomerates because IT IS NOT and that is no “pys ops” statement that is a fact you can check by reading the Wall Street Journal. I truly believe the writers by and large have dug themselves a hole by not understanding exactly who they are dealing with! You don;t hurt a billionaire by witholding a few million additional dollars.
Moderate Writer: “I’m a “patriotic” writer – and I wholeheartedly disagree with the negotiating tactics taken on my behalf by Patrick Verrone and David Young.”
Getting sick of hearing this same sentence without your solution attached. Tell us, oh wise one, how would you have handled negotiations with “partners” who don’t want to negotiate? Go!
Add Moderate Writer and Centrist Writer to the list of trolls…shills, whatever. Selling the AMPTP party line, following the script. Yeah, it’s those wild-eyed radicals Veronne and Young leading us like sheep to the slaughter. Forget that the Negotiating Committee is packed with real moderates like Ed Soloman, people with their careers at stake…and people who have actually made tough deals with the studios over the years. Seriously…even your names give you away. (And you’re really the same troll, aren’t you? Fess up) Pathetic.
If you actually carried WGA cards and went to the meetings, you’d know the extent of the solidarity on core issues. But you don’t, do you?
Others have noticed that the trolls clock out at 5:30. So I’m not expecting any response to this until after Christmas. Whatever they pay you…it’s really too much.
Klaatu: you might be right, and I hope you are, but I don’t think so. For two reasons.
1) The DGA can and will pretty easily get a ‘favored nation’ clause bumping up their contract if WGA (or SAG) gets better terms, thus obviating your assertion that the DGA can’t let another guild negotiating better terms.
2) The DGA might opt for using its pull to negotiate higher up-front minimums instead of going double-down on residuals. This probably would actually make the most sense for its membership, since none of those ADs, etc., get residuals, but a lot of them work for scale (as do a decent number of TV directors). And, since these minimums don’t get pattern-bargained out by 10x, it’s a lot cheaper for the AMPTP to concede ground on up-front minimums rather than residuals.
I think WGA will basically still have to take whatever deal is negotiated, but that’s going to be a tough pill to swallow if 2) happens. Not to mention that it will be hard to argue that the strike was indeed productive if that’s the scenario.
Writers, let’s strike for as long as it takes to get the directors a good deal.
There is nothing directors like better than writers who follow orders.
Our picketing is a free crowd scene they don’t even have to digitally enhance.
I’m a long-time WGA member involved in the ‘88 strike. The deal is simple: the money we’re asking for is pissant. The principle isn’t. The web is the future. Period. Double period. The public’s only beef with writers is the “shit” we write. But any writer who works in the business knows the suits (mostly none of whom has been on the factory floor) control the content. It’s their shit people are sick of. Their risk averse, copy the last thing that works, if all else fails re-brand some old piece of shit strategy.
Our message should be going out to shareholders. Instead of writers being inspired to create and develop broadcasting on the web, this monumental paradigm shift, we instead reap the benefit of media consolidation: the entire industry represented by eight aging white guys all breathtakingly over-compensated, all frightened to look like weenies to their uber-bosses, Murdoch, Immelt, Redstone, who probably don’t understand this and won’t for a nano-second suffer for it. All they have in common, beside their hatred for each other, is a gilded age redux contempt for labor.
Because, again I offer, the money here is nothing. Probably all the WGA would net from both new media (internet) money and an increased payment for DVDs equals less than another Pirates of the Caribbean. Chump change.
So it’s the principle. I say let’s take our message to the shareholders because the shareholders are us. The other side is about hubris and bad business. The net is the future — and anytime I read a writer blogging that we should cave I think of Vichy France. Lots of people folded under the pressure. Take the message to the shareholders.
Screw reality tv and animation, even screw the extra four pennies on DVD, but stand on the web. It WILL BE THAT SIGNIFICANT.
Robert
A few notes from a mid-level network employee.
(-) there is a general sense that we are in this for the L-O-N-G haul.
(-) while people on the coasts care about witty blogs, and vids and such, let’s not forget that this is (mostly) about national advertising. Most Americans will simply shift toward other viewing choices. The narrative – that fans of TV shows will help depress numbers and send a message…not tenable. Strange that (TV) writers would be so out of touch…they are (were) basically writing context for the marketing of sugar water and cell phone services…they were (are) mercenaries…we ALL are…
(-) networks know that overhead (in all its forms, not just dev) has gotten way out of hand. When this horrible period is over, what will remain on the network side will be a much tighter, hungrier machine. What will be left of the union? Sure, a buyer pays less for an 8 than a 15. But what did it cost the network to deliver the 8 instead of the 15? Reality is content, content has price points, you can figure out the rest.
(-) when the knee jerk response is “reality sucks” “people will stop watching, etc”, it displays a real sense of immaturity. Blog nonsense. This concerns a lot of moderates on the inside.
(-) I never watch the product anymore. I watched “Mad Men”, a couple of “Pushing Daises”, etc, but mostly its been BioShock, Netflix, etc. Leverage flows from many different vectors…there are entertainments above and beyond what this fight is about, and people are becoming very comfortable with them.
Of course, Nikki’s report IS basic psy-ops on the studios part. Why not do it? They have entire departments/executives concerned with PR, press, marketing, etc. Their actions are transparent, yes. Doesn’t mean the WGA played this correctly, tho. Just trying to add an inside voice here. Label me a shill if you will.
“Change the business forever”?
Damn straight. Two years without broadcast scripted TV, and I can tell you what this viewer will do — switch to DVDs and content from other countries forever. I’ll be watching BBC TV, thanks, and buying their DVDs to make sure they get paid for the content I watch. And when scripted TV comes back, I expect I’ll be waiting for the season DVDs as well. No more advertising for me.
I did watch Heroes. I did watch Pushing Daisies. I did watch House and The Riches. And the producers think that two years from now, when they’ve punished the writers adequately, I’ll come running back for more? Bad news, guys — the emotional attachment will be gone. (Well, maybe not for Pushing Daisies.)
And I’m betting I’m not the only one who simply breaks the live-TV habit forever. As to movies… well, I’ve seen enough movies with terrible scripts, how can it get worse? (Okay, okay, stupid question. And there are fantastic things like Good Night, and Good Luck as well.)
The writers aren’t the only ones the producers think of as puppies sniffing around their feet. I think they may have underestimated the independence of the modern audience. I hear on all sides “I hardly watch live TV anymore…” Give us two more years without TV? Smart move.
“Moderate Writer” is neither a writer nor moderate. AMPTP called, motherfucker. They say you can pick up your payment in a brown bag behind a bush at Roscoe’s Chicken and Waffles.
For “Sees The Future” back around 1 PM,
Dude, keep waving the freak flag. Where has it gotten us? Oh yeah, eight weeks into a strike without end where rhetoric has run away with the WGA. What alternate universe do you live in?
That being said, old reruns of Monk and Psych are pretty pathetic.
Can somebody clear up something for me?
Katzenberg runs DreamWorks animation. It’s a non-union shop. They don’t pay residuals, they don’t pay royalties, they don’t pay pension and health.
Why would anybody listen to anything he has to say about our negotiations, and think that he’s operating in good faith?
If he cared so much about the WGA, why doesn’t he let it organize DreamWorks animation?
Sorry, but I just can’t figure out what he’s doing in the middle of all of this. Can somebody explain?
It doesn’t matter if people do go fi-core and back to work. If these people make any kind of agreement for online that is like the laughable (and incomplete) offers the AMPTP has made they will REGRET it later. And they will find out they are the biggest fools of all. It is not an exaggeration to say the TV WILL NOT EXIST AND EVERYTHING WILL BE “ONLINE” in the NEAR future.
Think its far away, IT’S NOT:
http://www.microsoft.com/windowsxp/mediacenter/using/setup/default.mspx
If people work without a contract in place for online content because they think they are hurting now in a year or two they will realize they gave away EVERYTHING. That is why these companies are willing to play such hardball and take losses – because ONLINE will be the ONLY THING that matters and the definition of ONLINE will be stretched to include ALL TV CONTENT – as the delivery will be integrated to and and delivered via the internet.
Think about it – many people already get internet service and digital cable from the same company – think it will be hard for Time Warner to bill you in the new system…Think that infrastructure has NOT been built? Time Warner bribed me to go digital with a sweet package and calling me every day because I kept resisting and they are trying to get everyone to that model ASAP.
It’s like video and CDs and DVDs and the internet itself – we have all lived through A LOT of change. And people are trying to force everyone into the HDTV/Digital mode right now. Try and buy TVs and DVD players now and you’ll see certain standard connections/jacks are no longer available in compliance with some government thing about moving forward on the technology front. A bunch of my shows started to look like sh*t before I got digital cable because of the digital format they were being broadcast in on my standard cable setup (that’s how they make you buy the newest technology, just leave you behind until the product you are watching disintegrates before your very eyes). The thing people are forgetting is not everyone can be on the cutting edge – but when they find a way to combine everything into one ONLINE method they will! And it will be REALLY soon. And then they’ll force people over to the new thing by removing the compatibility with existing hardware and lowering the prices.
As a fan who has been following strike news daily, I’m not surprised… but it still makes me really sad. I can’t stand reality tv (or these silly new game shows), and most of my “must watch” shows are either out of new episodes or down to their last one. It’s a good thing I’m a NCAA hoops fan.
I work for a large (non-entertainment) company whose clients include most, if not all, the parent companies of the studios, but I am definitely on the side of the writers. It’s hard for me to feel sorry for myself for not having shows when so many people are out of work. I hope everyone negatively affected by this strike is able to scrape together a merry Christmas despite all the ish.
Oh, how refreshing. An anonymously-sourced scare leak from the AMPTP.
Sigh.
Everyone, remember, the AMPTP Playbook:
“Raise expectations, then lower them. Divide and conquer.”
The studios dropping a turd like this on the writers’ heads on Christmas Eve is the functional equivalent of NBC bringing back American Gladiator: we’ve seen it before, and we already know that it sucks.
Ignore it. Forget it. Laugh at it. And then remember our leverage: it’s the ‘08/’09 season, which the networks do not–DO NOT–want to lose.
Why not?
‘Cause if the networks kiss off the ‘08/’09 television season (after already kissing off ‘07/’08), they risk a *permanent* change in viewing habits for millions of American tv viewers, resulting in an irrevocable loss of eyeballs from network television–a loss that’ll be worse (by orders of magnitude) than tv suffered after the ‘88 strike. It’d cost the networks and studios untold billions of dollars. That’s billions with a b.
The AMPTP knows this. And they know they’d have a real fun time explaining to Wall Street why they pissed away several billion dollars rather than cutting the WGA in to the tune of a few million.
So, everyone, whenever you read an anonymously-leaked fear-bomb (as posted by Nikke today) in which some faceless mouthpiece claims that the studios are all excited to unnecessarily ash-can billions of dollars in future revenue for no good reason, pay special attention to the “woot, woot, woot” noise you hear in the background. That’s the sound of your b.s. detector.
Patrick Meighan
Culver City, CA
Doh- You are correct. I’m not sure why everyone else is so blind to basic economics. A network will take half the ratings if the show costs two-thirds less to produce. Even a “hit” show is in the red for the first season or two. The REALITY is the “professional” entertainment business is giving away to the amateur with a video camera and an internet connection. The networks can get free cheap content and air that. It’s not about the “billions” they give up from advertising revenues. Those billions are offset by the huge costs of scripted television. It’s called profit margin. It’s very basic stuff people. If you take in a billion in ad sales for scripted shows but it costs you 900 million to produce and air the shows that’s a profit of 100 million. If you take in 500 million in ad sales for a slate of reality programs and can produce them for 350 million that’s 150 million in profit. Better- see. This is the problem for the “writers”, they don’t even understand the economics of their own business.
And some seem to be counting on the “great American TV viewer” to get pissed and boycott or do something. Um, I think American lethargy when it comes to any issue is pretty well documented. And helping out television writers would probably fall low on the list.
Oh, and TV dying as we know it is not something that is going to concern any mogul. Or few other people. Change is the only constant. Adapting is the only way to survive.
I’m pro-WGA but they (we) need to get out of this fantasyland and deal with the realities and stop thinking we are in some way vital or important to the business. Hollywood tossed quality content under the bus a long time ago when they realized people will watch most anything. THATis when we lost our leverage not on November 5th.
“moderatewriter” is neither.
As a concerned parent, citizen, and actress, I feel this strike (perpetrated by the AMPTP) is detrimental to the creative industry and to our society. It is also going to eat the AMPTP’s business alive.
Personally, I wish the AMPTP were not what it has become – a group of monopolies with no creative interest. The Bush Administration at large and the FCC are responsible for allowing conglomerates to eat up nearly all creative and media interests into few hands with only balance sheets and shareholders for accountability.
If creativity is allowed to be controlled by only a few, let alone being public mega-corporations, what will happen is that creativity will be suffocated. The bottom line will be squeezed to such an extent that no longer makes logical sense for creativity to exist. Only sequels and remakes will make sense to these congloms run by Wall Street. And only the cheapest of “entertainment,” i.e., reality and game shows — which can shamelessly plug product as part of the program like a giant commercial – will become the norm; again it’s all about the bottom line. There is no greater good to please, no conscience, no allowance to explore, no unproven idea. Of all the business-model experiments that the studios have ever done, the current one with no heart has got to be the worst.
As a society we need creativity – we need good stories, we need wholesome entertainment for the young and old, we need enticing and interesting fictional characters, we need to enjoy our entertainment, and we need to be able to explore ideas, history, and imagination. We learn, live, and relieve through art. And, the health of our society is a reflection of our art. If our art is poor, rehashed, or non-existent (in some cases), then it only means our minds and our lives are becoming less than they could be – darkness can only bring confusion, despair, and cynicism. Since the AMPTP has no heart and no apparent reason to have a heart, it doesn’t mind our society becomes less – or is that short sighted? It is.
You see, if the AMPTP were really practicing all the sustainability that its companies claim, we wouldn’t be in this strike today. Why? Because in this situation, sustainability applies to the companies’ creative force. Businesses need to nurture and sometimes pay more to keep their supply sustainable. The AMPTP’s supply is its creative force. Without doing a fair deal with the WGA as soon as possible, the AMPTP slowly eats its current and future business alive by damaging the sustainability of not only its creative force but also the greater entertainment industry which supports this creative force. Talk about stupid and non-Wall Street savvy business practices. When will Wall Street and shareholders wake up to this fact?
May I remind those who throw about “Google” and “Microsoft” as though they’ll simply step in to replace the Big 8 media conglomerates:
1) Google and Microsoft are the stereotypical, archetypal non-union employers.
2) Google has demonstrated with its abortive Google Print project that it has absolutely no respect for the copyright of authors, if it even understands the concept at all. Its YouTube has demonstrated a general lack of respect for the rights of creators of scripted entertainment as well.
You might consider how hard you should struggle to get out of the frying pan, because the fire surrounding it is hot as Hell.
Hey Moderate Writer — nobody called you a shill. And having a diffeent opinion about how negotiations should proceed is not what I or anyone else who knows the guild is united is saying. Are you planning to go Fi Core? Do you think that the moguls not negotiating at all means that we’re turning down a deal to stay on strike? Didn’t think so. The AMPTP is so uncompromising that it’s hard to find dissent in the guild. And qs someone who has run shows in the past, even thouh I’m not doing it this year (or wasn’t, anyway), I can tell you that we’re all a pretty alpha bunch, and being disrespected as writers, human beings and people who keep their shows from devolving into chaos just doesn’t sit well. As you have read by now, the group that wanted to make a deal via Katzenberg realized that it isn’t about personalities. So they’re back with the rest of us, trying to find a honest way to a fair contract via our guys or the DGA or some angel that crashes through the ceiling and hangs there spinning on guy wires while the mere mortals below quake with fear. Anyway. Pull up your socks, pal. This is a bad fight and we need you, even if you don’t agree with everything that the eng com does. Right now, they can’t do anything. And do us all a favor and lose the Bush Administration analogies. Who do you think renforces this climate of greed? The Writers Guild? Oh and Nikki — the LAT called after I wrote before to say they will publish my reply to the Keviin Harris op ed, so I’ll shut my trap about them for now.
Sounds like a bunch of smoke and mirrors on the part of the AMPTP. I seriously doubt they are going to throw away millions of dollars in advertising just to spite the WGA. They are way too greedy to do that.
The sweet siren song of fi-core is calling. Who\’s with me?
– WGA member for 12 years.
Another WGA member wrote:
These guys are out to destroy the WGA. What’s next, farming the writing out to third world countries? Don’t laugh. It CAN happen. Maybe not Thailand and Vietnam, but what about England?
I heard from a friend who’s an agent in England that the British writers (as well as the Canadian Guild) are not working right now and will not work during the strike. I haven’t done the legwork to verify this, but it was comforting nonetheless to hear those lads and lasses — even if they are from a “Third World” hellhole like the United Kingdom — have our backs. Especially if they ever hope to work in the States in the future.
That’s not to say the conglomerates won’t search oversees for scabs. And I’m sure they’ll find some.
WGA Centrist, I’m also a WGA centrist and i was with you all the way until this:
“We dropped our only nuke on November 5th — once we struck, our leverage evaporated.”
Our leverage is the fact that we’re keeping them from making any television right now, and that before long they won’t be able to make any features either. In other words, the leverage is the strike. You may very well be right about them deciding they can never negotiate with us terrorists, but they are doing that at a great and growing loss to their profits. GE and Fox are diversified, but CBS, Viacom and even Disney much less so.
Also, keep in mind, GE has NEVER tolerated losses and they’re not romantics over there. They will sell NBC Universal within six months if there’s no settlement. Maybe they’ll sell it to Abu Dhabi or Singapore, if there’s any money left after they buy up all our banks.
I am a WGA writer on the picket line. I have heard through back channels since the first week of the strike that Jeffery Katzenberg was the leading voice against the WGA at the AMPTP table bargaining table. Now if that is true Jeffery is turning his hat around to pretend that he is on the writers’ side of the argument. This is only meant to confuse us all into thinking that hope is possible in a crooked game.
The divide and concur strategy by putting this propaganda leak out is only mean spirited against the thousands of people out of work because of the strike. As well as being an attempt to turn the public, below the line people and businesses hurting because of the strike against the writer.
What we all need to start doing more of is thinking of ways to get back to work. If we all collectively start doing that – this includes the AMPTP then we can put away our childish bantering and be reasoning adults.
Bullshit!
Reality TV is shit!
Does anyone besides me think “moderate writer” might be Gavin Palone? I mean, think about it, have you ever seen the two of them in the same room together?
Palone was positioning himself as the attention whore of the entire strike. Where’d he go? I’m guessing Conan or Larry David called him off because of all the bad publicity it was causing them.
If it’s not you, Mr. Palone, then accept my apology, because that means the real “moderate writer” is just another bitter writer wannabe on the payroll of Fabiani and Lehane or some other cuntsulting company.
And by the way, moderate writer, stop posting every three seconds, it gives you away. Hasn’t anyone ever told you: All things in moderation.
Guess what a triple strike will KILL the industry as we know it. Their prime demographic the 18-35 Male has a another form of entertainment they can use their TV for to ride out this debacle. It is called Video Games, these viewers are already too busy playing Halo 3, Call of Duty 4, Bioshock and the huge epic sci-fi adventure Mass Effect to occupy their time.
if you guys think this report is false you’re kidding yourselves. Writers lost this battle already. What a bunch of baffoons you all are.
There is no question this is a scare tactic, and not a bad one either. These people are not stupid. They know sending out a message that the writer’s goose is already cooked right before the holidays will scare the shit out of people. It freaked me out at first until I thought about it for awhile. They also know it’s a good strategy for their upoming negotiations with the DGA. And they also know how influential Nikki has become, and that’s why her sources are all feeding her this hard-line, knowing very well that she’ll report it and freak everyone out further. It’s not her fault, she’s reporting what she’s hearing; it’s up to us to read between the lines.
That being said, we are arguing with a faceless, monolithic corporate entity and there is no real victory with a capital V possible for the writers. There is only cutting the best not-so-great deal possible, and geting back to work. It looks right now like things have gotten so ugly between the monoliths and the WGA that it’s in the DGA’s hands to save the day. I wish them the best. If they can cut a deal by January, then the WGA’s leadership can play hardball for a month before the moderates pressure them to cut the same deal as the DGA at the end of February. If the DGA cuts a deal and the WGA stays out the rank and file writers, including myself, will go through the roof.
One more thing: Why the fuck do we keep portraying the SAG people as these brothers in arms when we know they extended their deal for an extra year so they would align with the DGA instead of the WGA, forcing us to do most of the heavy-lifting? That sounds like having it both ways to me.
Fuck them. Now the tactic is to try to scare us into making a crap deal?
Eat it, bitches.
America is facing a shitstorm of unprecedented proportions in the next decade: peak oil, the growing realization the dollar is worthless, the budget deficit, the trade deficit, crumbling health care, Iraq (militarily, economically, politically), the wiping out of billions in assets due the bursting of the speculation bubble, failing education, etc. all of which will drive the costs of everything up and up while most people will make less and less. In ten years, we’ll be sort of like where Russia is today, minus the energy reserves.
The big corps are already quietly leaving the US, relocating to the Emirates or elsewhere. Bush and his cronies now own vast estates in Paraguay. If you’re into long-range vision, it makes sense to “destroy” (or take apart) the current Hollywood “system,” to rebuild it elsewhere on a more economic basis. It happened before and it will happen again.
Nikki, Nikki, Nikki. Don’t believe everything you write. This is the kind of doomsday scenario they want us to believe.
They’re going to blow up the whole industry to punish the writers??? Show-runners will go fiscal core? Then what? What about their staffs? Tentpole movies will be gone. Directors will have nothing to shoot — actors nothing to act.
If NBC is up for grabs after the Olympics, why would htey run it into the ground? To see how little they can get for it? And what about Les Moonvess’s bonus and stock options??? He’s CBS not a conglomerate.
Take a day off and enjoy the sun!
Just as a TV fan, and as a fan and also someone with all kinds of empathy for folks in a union, i’m pulling for you writers. I’ve read most of the material, and many of the comments here, since the strike began, and with all due respect to the yeo-womanlike work you’ve done Nikki-and I’m not being patronizing, really, this is such a good place to get news-and even more interestingly, comments from actual writers (and many plants cough cough moderatewriter cough cough); but as some noted, this coming just before Xmas, it reporting the alleged news that the CEOs don’t care about anything (really? word?) other than….the thermostat in hell, the best seats for anything…..and the supposed best efforts of a supposedly decent big mogul, it just seems all a bit pre-packaged. That said, I think right now, the sentiment among most fans is wholly behind the writers. They see right to the economic essence of this argument and it’s not hard to see. What writers need to do is keep reminding the American public of this so that they keep the public behind them. There’s nothing worse than terrible (and completely true) PR. If that bad press comes long enough (and it may take a lost year or two-though really, I think the Suits are more vain and much too insecure to handle the eventual dissatisfaction of major shareholders, not to mention a steady negative flow of shareholders; and as mentioned, bad TV, terrible ad prices during sweeps; and one would imagine, if the WGA keeps up a united front long enough, more solidarity from other dramatic unions. If the writers wanted me to refrain from watching something, I’d be quite happy to and I think there are many many out there who would also. The people are with you writers. Stay strong. And merry Xmas.
The AMPTP will hold off on WGA negotiations until after the DGA deal is done.
I have heard that the reason the moguls rejected Katzenberg’s backchanneling efforts is because they were afraid that Verrone and Co. would be irrational and make a public stink out of any new proposals (partial or not) and that they don’t want to jeopardize their talks w/the DGA, whom they know they can strike a deal with.
Now the WGA is looking at the end of January before there’s any movement (if any.)
And if the DGA deal is done prior to WGA, there is no way the AMPTP will ever give a striking union a better deal. To do so would only promote the action of a strike.
And even though the DGA deal will most likely be one that the WGA will see as unfit, it will at the very least serve as a template. It may not force the WGA to get back to the table any sooner, but it will set a ceiling for these negotiations.
Time to get back to the table and put the egos aside. And by “egos”, I mean everyone involved.
From what i have seen he AMPTp is on one side, the WGA with the support of the SAG is on the other and the DGA is in the middle somewhere looking to make a deal
surely if the moguls are going to write off 2 years of tv the DGA will not be happy about this and will move closer to the other unions
The studios are silly. They fiddle while Rome burns. Today marks the birth of a new era in media. It may not be a complete transformation, but the studios have managed little more than positioning their own troops against themselves.
Quoted w/o attribution by Leslie Halliwell in “Filmgoer’s and Video Viewer’s Companion”: “There’s nothing wrong with [Hollywood] that six first-class funerals wouldn’t cure.”
I may be slow on this, but isn’t there an opportunity for creatives to branch out and take new media from the moguls? Just like the music industry is in turmoil with Radiohead and Madonna jumping ship and self-distributing, can’t the WGA begin self-distribution of their product? Making deals with smaller production companies and eliminating the need for a studio by going straight to the internet. This may be a basic view of a very complex issue, but I would love to see this backfire on big business and see the growth of a new delivery method without them. Stop trying to make deals with the studios and start making deals with iTunes, etc.
If I had a shitload of money, I’d call a few top writers and the WGA variance office, and produce a load of low-budget scripted shows, to be sold only to
- independent television stations,
- network affiliates willing to commit to showing them as long as they made an agreed-upon ratings goal (preempting whatever “reality” game show crap the networks might shovel into their pipe), and
- over the Internet.
And match the current base pay, and double what the guilds are asking for in terms of residuals, since the figure is still small, and as a newcomer I’d need the larger figure to get people to sign.
Since I don’t have the required shitloads of money, I offer this idea to any mogul who might want it at no charge. (Lip-service credit would be nice, but I’m sure some people with money are already thinking along those lines.)
Let’s be honest… The actors haven’t done a fucking thing to help the WGA. Where is everyone? I’m in NY and aside from the odd actor – and the requisite Robbins – NOBODY comes out. They need to actually support how a poster above suggested… sickouts, something. All the ‘cool’ guys who would speak loudly for there own cause – Ethan Hawke, that whole crew… (not just picking on him but it’s easy) where’s clooney and penn and pitt and everyone? I know the answer… enjoying the sweet life they don’t want to jeopardize. Lame.
Here’s what, I assume, are the studioheads positions in all of this is:
“Here’s our deal to you, the writers: We shall keep next to, or at, ONE HUNDRED PERCENT OF THE PROFITS, and you lowly writers shall receive, for your efforts, the STEAM OFF OUR PISS!!! What’s more, you lowlifes will accept our offer and LOVE IT! And you will show that love in all means necessary.
“What? you think the public will have sympathy for you? First, the public doesn’t give a rat’s shit about you. They all think you’re a bunch of drug fueled hedonists willing to fuck anyone or anything. And second, we can give our public nothing but game show and reality diahreah and they will watch it. Because they are mindless drones who have shown they will watch just about anything (except for hockey).
“And you think we’re worried about what the shareholders will say? BWAH! If they don’t like it they can sell their shares and we can buy them up dirt cheap and watch their value go up once things get back to normal. Besides, we can write off all these losses and pass the savings on to the taxpayers. And, worse comes to worse, we can all grab our golden parachutes worth billions of dollars and ride off into the sunset while our predecessors figure out a way to clean this mess up.
“And get the government to step in? LAUGH MY FUCKIN’ ASS OFF!!! Have you forgotten who’s in charge of the federal government? GEORGE “DUBYAH” BUSH!!! Best friend to the powerful billionaires and sworn arch enemy of the weak, the poor, and the helpless. He and his pals in the executive branch aren’t going to bring in any mediators to solve this dispute because he sees it as having us give in to the Godless unwashed heathens. He’s on our side in our own personal War on Terrorism because Jesus wants us to succeed.
“So, as you scumbags can plainly see, you can’t win. WE hold all the cards here, and all you have is a bunch of well written picket signs. Give up now and accept our own fresh brewed feces before we take away what’s left of your pride and dignity, for which we gave to you.
“Merry Fuckin’ Christmas, retards! MWAH-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HAAAAAA!!!!!”
Well, anyhow, that’s the way I see it. I hope I’m wrong. It’s hard to try and get into the minds of a bunch of sociopaths.
Are TV contracts for seasons (actor will be with the show for a number of seasons, regardless of when or where they are shown or for how long) or for years (show has a certain number of years to tell their story with that actor; at the end of the contract, actor reups or leaves)?
How does the strike affect this? If the studios are willing to sacrifice the rest of this current season AND 08-09 season to break the union, does this mean that IF the 09-10 season goes on as planned, it picks up where everybody left off (the middle of the 07-08 season) or that those lost seasons are just lost and you start with whoever still has a contract?
I’m very confused.
Who needs to support the networks and watch their crappy “reality” when you can watch better stuff on youtube and I’ve also started watching ustream.tv and stickam and people in their living rooms are doing better reality TV than the studios.
News flash – viewers actually have options. Are they not aware of this? We don’t have to watch TV to be entertained. Are they aware of this?
I hate to restate the obvious, but I’m not sure it can be OVERstated – Could the CEOs be not only arrogant but also that stupid to not be aware of the options viewers have? Is that even possible???
If I were a shareholder in the studios, would I want people who are this arrogant and stupid running the companies I invested in?? I’m surprised the major shareholders of the studios haven’t weighed in yet, but it will happen.
I really respect Nikki’s reporting here and I think a lot of it is accurate. I do not believe that it will go on much past March, though. As I’ve said, the DGA will make a deal and then the WGA will agree to those same terms. Unlike what Klatuu and others want to believe, because it validates their support of the misguided strategy that the guild has followed since ‘05, the deal they will have will be the same as what they could have had in Dec.. I don’t think the AMPTP really will want to continue the strike, just to break the Union. They just want to prove that the union’s tactics didn’t work and that goal will be attained after the DGA contract is negotiated and accepted.
Take a look at how Gil Cates and Michael Apted have portrayed the DGA position and think about how it creates a comfortable climate for the AMPTP to compromise and conclude a negotiation. Anyone can see that their offer to the WGA was not what they were willing to give but a reaction to the childish, irrational and petulant posturing of the WGA negotiators. They have always been planning to give more and will give more. I know most of these guys and have had disagreements with each of them. They don’t give in to arm twisting, even when you really have a grip on their arm. Losing the TV season doesn’t frighten them because scripted programming has been, for the most part, a money-loser. Their big financial scores, during the past few years, have been with reality shows. Forget about shows that don’t make it. A series like Alias, that runs for 5 years, runs up a big deficit and then sells for a few hundred thousand off-network, is still a loser. Dancing with the Stars, on the other hand, is a cash cow. Ugly Betty will never earn as much for ABC as Dancing with the Stars or Home Makeover.
Anyway, those of you that do work as writers, will be back to work in the spring.
Gavin Polone, what deal could the WGA have had in December? $250 for streaming? No internet jurisdiction? You really think that the WGA will settle for that after months of striking?
Patrick Meighan:
By ‘AMPTP Playbook’ you mean, ‘those notes Tom Schulman scratched on a napkin about a tipsy conversation he had with some labor lawyer at a dinner party.’ I mean, if you want not to believe Finke’s reporting, that’s fine, but just don’t overstate the case for not believing it.
Gavin, is that really you? Is it?? How cool everyone, Gavin is in the house! Oh, and Gavin knows that the AMPTP was always willing to give us more, but didn’t ’cause they thought we were being babies. So no need to worry anymore, ’cause Gavin KNOWS that they will give us more. He KNOWS it.
Thank you for coming out from under your rock today! You are soooo smart.
Makes me happy to know that “guys” like you are in our corner.
Gavin’s timeline here is off by at least 2 months. He is correct that there will be a new contract with the DGA, for which the talks will begin within the next two weeks. Just negotiating that contract will take around 2 months itself – there’s too much material to cover and the haggling over the residuals formula will be a month on its own. Once that deal is made, around mid-March, we’ll have to see what the AMPTP wants to do next. It actually makes more sense for them to turn to SAG at that time. If they make a deal with the WGA (which will be another month once the talks start again), they’ll just be rolling the dice that SAG won’t go out 2 months later. And by mid-March, with the current TV season, pilot season and the upfronts history (not to mention what will have already happened at the Oscars), the AMPTP will have no incentive to talk to the WGA until after there is a contract set with SAG.
By the time SAG has a new contract (based on the DGA formula), we’re looking at late May or early June. And at that time, the AMPTP will announce their willingness to resume talks with the WGA – IF they do what they were told in December and take the 6 items off the table. And then we’ll all see what happens next.
One other point. Nikki seems to not understand why the WGA isn’t telling writer/directors and writer/actors to walk off their shows when writer/producers are doing so. This is a telling mistake for her. Yes, the showrunners mostly walked off – but that’s because first and foremost they are the writers and creators of their shows. In the case of writer/directors and writer/actors, we’re talking about people who aren’t writing – they’re being paid to direct or to act. Telling them to walk off their jobs when they’re working in a different guild capacity (and thus telling them to violate their contracts with those shows and with the other guilds) is a step I seriously doubt the WGA or any other guild would ever make.
“…if you guys think this report is false you’re kidding yourselves. Writers lost this battle already. What a bunch of baffoons you all are.”
Comment by brl and broke — December 24, 2007 @ 9:55 pm
What the hell is a “baffoon”? Are you alliterate?
You still have to feel sorry for the AMPTP this time of year. Every time they or their loved ones watch “It’s a Wonderful Life”, they share a guilty cough halfway through as everyone realizes that they are the greedy soulless Mr. Potter’s of the world.
Here’s to the George Baily’s of the WGA, you are the richest folks in town!
“Merry Christmas you old building and loan!!!”
Mr. Palone,
You cited “childish, irrational and petulant posturing of the WGA negotiators.”
Obviously you think Verone, Brown and Young are idoiots but do you honestly think Shawn Ryan, Gaghan, Cherry, et. al. are stupid too? Anything the WGA “organizers” do is signed off on by the negotiating committe. And they’re not just a bunch of staff writers fresh out of ‘SC film school and the Harvard Lampoon. They’re more than capable and these people know the business. They represent us because they are us. What you say about them, you’re saying about the rank and file WGA member. Those of us (WGA members) who attend the meetings, walk the line and stay connected with other members during this strike have confidence in our leadership (and now the showrunners do too). So in 3 years when Verone and company are still at the helm expect the core issue of RESPECT to still be on the table. “4 MORE CENTS!!!”
I have a couple of questions for those expecting either the DGA or the SAG to help the WGA win what it wants: Will the DGA demand in its own negotiations that the WGA get jurisdiction over reality and animation? How about the SAG — will they strike and stay out until the AMPTP gives the WGA reality and animation jurisdiction?
If neither of the other Guilds will fight for the WGA to win reality and animation jurisdiction, doesn’t that mean that the WGA will have to stay on strike until it wins this on its own?
“A series like Alias, that runs for 5 years, runs up a big deficit and then sells for a few hundred thousand off-network, is still a loser. Dancing with the Stars, on the other hand, is a cash cow. Ugly Betty will never earn as much for ABC as Dancing with the Stars or Home Makeover.”
Well said, Mr. Palone… its all about the bottom line.
And the bottom line is that Mr. Bowman, Mr. Cuse, and the rest of the Harvard-educated elitist phylum should have chosen a profession where their insight and vision could be put to good use…
Like the mortgage industry.
Gavin — I know you are Pariah to many, but I think you represent a reasoned point-of-view. The one point you make I would disagree with is that the WGA strike by us ‘crazies’ has no impact on what the DGA deal will or will not be.
I think it’s had a great impact. Whether it’s worth the cost in human terms is a separate analysis.
Being a veteran of ‘88 I have admired the organizational and logistical skills of the WGA this time out. Ironically I think the internet has helped immeasurably.
I’m not so sure about the negotiating strategy — I think the Fremantle demonstration and Patrick promising ‘reality’ to be in this contract was a huge mistake and played right into the AMPTP hands.
I think taking DVD’s off the table was a mistake. And was told by an insider that it had to come off the table or else we would be looking at a 9 month strike on that issue alone. To which I replied, then all you’re telling me is we have no leverage.
I think the strike rules in areas that were not covered by the guild such as animation and internet, which had to be modified, if not rescinded was another overreach.
So the WGA has made mistakes. But so too has the AMPTP. I think when they put the $250 offer on the table and were shocked by the WGA’s dismay and said, ‘you didn’t think that was our real offer, did you?’ was another example of how being ‘accomodating’ like the DGA is a myth.
And let’s not forget the ‘great settlements’ the DGA has made in the past — whose side are they on anyway? With friends like that you don’t need enemies.
But all in all I think you represent a legitimate point-of-view whether we want to hear it or not.
Let’s face it the business has changed from the three network model I grew up in. First run theatrical is down as a percentage of return. Ratings are down as the spectrum has fragmented. I have often wondered what the business model is for a series that gets a 7 share and is deemed a hit???
There are many more avenues for the AMPTP to look for returns — but then so too for the creatives.
I’m glad you posted — not anonymously!
I have to say, everything Polone has said (here or on TV) has been pretty dead on. I hope you’re right about this thing ending in the spring Gavin…
Simple fact is that the WGA leadership was asleep at the wheel last time we threatened a strike. We should have held out then for better DVD and New Media backend.
Look at the music industry. They where asleep and in denial for over a decade, and now they are close to flatlining.
I’d write more but I have to watch Caveman on iTunes.
For my money, Mister Eight, Kaatu and Mike, have a straight-forward take on the situation. Go back and read their posts if you haven’t — they articulate the facts and make sound predictions based on their experience. I can’t agree more about somebody’s comment regarding all the immature bloggers naming people “shills,” rather than discussing the facts.
Mr. Palone said:
Unlike what Klatuu and others want to believe, because it validates their support of the misguided strategy that the guild has followed since ‘05, the deal they will have will be the same as what they could have had in Dec..
Gavin, there WAS NEVER ANY OFFER to accept. The AMPTP did not make an offer the day before the strike, even after wga took dvd off the table. To say that if WGAE strike doesn’t start at midnight they would have made us an offer that night is to either be the AMPTP or to be a sap and believe their nonsense.
There is still NO OFFER TO ACCEPT. Maybe you are right that we will simply get the DGA deal because they want to settle with them to save face, but their attitude has always been, 100 percent, to teach us a lesson because how dare we exercise our rights as Americans to strike.
Gavin, I have met the AMPTP, and it is you.
The sweet siren song of fi-core is calling. Who\’s with me?
– WGA member for 12 years.
Comment by Jake
You say Fi-Core, I say Scab. Fi-Core. SCAB. Fi-Core. SCAB.
nice try shill baby.
lblah blah blah is a mega shill! OMG!
Note to the television executives who think they can simply shove so-called reality programming down the throats of what viewers they have left but really look more intent on committing corporate hari-kari:
Five years from now, your networks are just going to be another pipe (one of thousands) into people’s homes. We will have TVs connected to the Net (congratulations Time-Warner, your high-speed Internet connect through cable wires is just another of Senator Ted Stevens’ famous tubes). Through some fairly simple computer code, HD content will go straight from the tubes to the boob tube (NBC already knows this. Hulu anyone?).
In the coming world, barriers to entry are down and content is king. Oh, and of course branding. Youtube? As Sam and Jim pointed out (www.samandjimgotohollywood.com), Youtube has already branded itself as the 99 cent store of video. So how are we going to view NBC, CBS, ABC, Fox and the CW five years from now if the strike continues, the WGA remains united, and all new stuff they have in the fall of ‘08 is Reality programming and news magazines?
And how long will this strike continue before a Marc Cherry or a Rob Thomas gets all entrepreneurial on the networks’ asses (remember who terminated the showrunners’ contracts after all) and starts up a new portal? For the right talent, the money is there, and the content delivery system is there. The networks have no stranglehold on this anymore.
On the movie side, there are a lot of deep pockets out there that have longed to get into this business. A new prodco not chained to the AMPTP can cut its own deal with the WGA, and suddenly Rossio and Elliott are taking their next pet billion-dollar project elsewhere.
Over the next few months, if the AMPTP doesn’t come to its senses, the writers suffer. Over the next ten years, the four major networks lose their first among equals status and brand themselves as Reality portals, while new portals that don’t even exist at this moment become the cutting edge of the zeitgeist.
Content is king. The ball truly is in the court of the generators of that content, which, as Irving Thalberg would tell you if he were here today, is the writers.
Kevin–
You could be correct and it may be two months beyond March. I just think that both sides are tired of all of it. I think the DGA will go a bit faster than you think and the WGA is starting to feel the heat. I have spoken to several prominent writers who have begun to mention “fi-core” as an alternative. I don’t think it is anywhere close to the majority who are truly dissatisfied yet but those who are are working writers who will damage the guild if they go back to their jobs. Obviously, the half or more of the guild members who do not work regularly are not going to hurt the studios if they maintain their resolve. But, of those who do work, even a small minority of writers returning to work will cause a problem for the WGA negotiators. I don’t think the negotiating committee wants to test the possibility of even 3% of the members going back.
I know there are many reading this who will say “you’re lying and you’re a shill: The guild is united.” But think about how intense everything is. Are people who are beginning to talk of breaking away from the guild really going to talk about it with anyone who is on the other side?
Here is another thing you should know: there is scabbing going on all over the place. Every movie in preproduction or production right now-and there are many-is having its script changed. Maybe pages aren’t being distributed. Maybe they’re just storyboarding new scenes. Maybe dialog is being changed on the fly by the director and actors. But, I promise you, the scripts are being rewritten in every sense of the word. Also, pilot scripts are being written by those who sold pitches before the strike. The networks know this and it allows them to feel comfortable that they will be able to gear up as soon as a deal is concluded. They don’t give a fuck about a fall launch anymore and they want to get rid of the whole upfront waste of time. They just need new shows and they know that they’ll have them within a few months after a settlement.
R.B. and Ibah blah blah–
No, I think the AMPTP would have made a better offer back in Nov., had the WGA adopted a different posture going back to the very begining. I think, had they acted more like the DGA is now, the AMPTP would not have dug in and been so hostile. Obviously, the current offer is unacceptable. But, I believe, their hostility, whether deserved or not, is a direct result of how the WGA has conducted itself going back to ‘05.
Bill Taub–
You are probably correct that the WGA strike has had an impact on the DGA negotiation. I think it will speed it up. I think the AMPTP is motivated to prove something by quickly closing a negotiation with the DGA. I don’t think it will change the terms. I think the deal will be something similar to the current H/V deal, with an add back for the reduced cost of manufacture and distribution. That is what they both will accept. Maybe there will be some kind of increased upside based on post-breakeven profit, as well. I think the studios can live with that. I can’t really see why the break-down in the WGA negotiations will have increased the DGA’s leverage. If anything, it has shown that the AMPTP is willing to give up the TV season, which has to make the DGA think. In any case, the first deal closed will be the one agreed to by the other three guilds, sooner or later, and the AMPTP knows what the outside numbers are that they will be willing to give up. It is just a matter of how to get to that point.
Thank you for posting your name, as well.
The WGA is not going to be destroyed in this strike, the entire industry as we know it will. Unlike 1988, the current 15-35 Male Demographic has two new venues to entertain them in place of this strike, the Internet and Videogames.
This is why the public by and large really does not care and is not clammoring for it to end. Because they were too busy playing Halo 3, Bioshock and Call of Duty 4 to notice.
Or they were online watching fresh new homemade entertainment on youtube and other websites.
It is not just the strike, but other factors Hollywood studios are bleeding to death on a slew of pretentious self-indulgent anti-war vanity ego films that have all FLOPPED. This in turn is causing a decline on DVD sales across the board. Combined with the loss of revenue from the strike Hollywood is bleeding out at an alarming rate.
All the while the VG industry is swimming on cash from hits like Halo 3, COD4 and others. The WGA, AMPTP and the studio system are dinosaurs, the digital media is the little mammals scuurying underneath their shadow. As we speak the KT Asteroid is heading its way.
Realistic -
Our current SAG president, Alan Rosenberg, is more of an old-school union type than the previous SAG president, Melissa Gilbert. Regardless of what happened a year or two ago, SAG is now 100% behind the writers. I guarantee you if there’s no settlement with the WGA by June, SAG will walk. Not that there will be much production to walk away from….
Mike:
1) The DGA will definitely get a favored nations with the WGA, but it would still hurt their status if the writers got a better deal and they had to trigger it. They will work very closely with the WGA to make sure the writers will take any deal they want to take. They have already offered to share all of their research on the new media business with the WGA. This is an unusual amount of cooperation between the new unions (remember the whole “film by” thing?), but they know they will need each other down the road.
2) Regarding upfront minimums: Residuals help the studios more than the writers (or actors or directors). By deferring a portion of salaries to the back-end they reduce their risk. They are trying to rewrite history and say that residulas are an undeserved “bonus” but they are not. The word “residual” means “left over” not “extra”. Strangley, the studios always seem willing to raise upfront money and fight tooth-and-nail to rollback residuals. If I were the studios, I would try to shift as much of my costs to the back-end. And as a writer, I would rather get more money up front. But logic has never been a big part of these negotiations.
And, though many non-director DGA members may (understandably) prefer upfront dollars, any directors who earn above minimum will fight for Internet residuals. Plus, as I’ve said, they can’t afford to break the tradition of pattern bargaining by coming up with a very different model than will be used for the WGA deal.
3) Agreed that the WGA will take a deal worse then they want. Of course. But, it will definitely be better than what was offered pre-strike (ie. nothing for the Internet). The strike provides added leverage to the DGA which will trickle down to the WGA.
Gavin wrote: Unlike what Klatuu and others want to believe, because it validates their support of the misguided strategy that the guild has followed since ‘05, the deal they will have will be the same as what they could have had in Dec..
The only offer in December was $139 for a half-hour show and $250 for an hour show for unlimited streaming for one year… with the option for the studios to label it promotional and pay zero.
That offer will never be accepted by the WGA.
Okay, we all need to remember that Gavin really thinks there was a good deal on the table that we walked away from, because he’s used to screwing over the writer.
Gavin is not a friend of talent. He wasn’t even when he runing UTA. Back then, the only reason he wanted more money for the writer was because it meant more money for him. Now that he’s just a blood-sucker/producer he wants us to have a bad deal so he can have more money.
Once again, Gavin is here to make things nice and clear for all of us stupid writers. Gavin, you are not on our side. You never have been. I think you enjoy stiring this up and puting fear into the hearts and minds of writers. After all, that’s how you can stay in control.
The DGA will make deal, my guess it won’t suck like the one we were offered. Of course the AMPTP knows how much they’re willing to give, anyone who goes into a negotiation knows what they will give and what they will take.
I do not think you are lying or are a shill. I just think you’re on same page as the AMPTP and not on the side of the writers. That’s a shame, since we’re the ones who make you money.
You have been against this strike from day one. That’s fine, I don’t care. But you need to go back under your rock and stay there until we get a FAIR DEAL. Not a crap deal, but a FAIR DEAL.
if sag is behind the strike, why are the ones who are able to work still working? if they were behind, they’d do more than show up for a 2 hour press conference.
Klaatu,
Who knows, maybe you are right to be optimistic about how hard the DGA will push for internet residuals, but I remain skeptical. Remember, A dollar increase in DGA upfront payment minimums costs the AMPTP a dollar. A dollar increase in DGA residuals costs the AMPTP ten dollars. The DGA knows this, the AMPTP knows this, and they each know that they each know.
Also, here’s an interesting paragraph buried in today’s LAT article about the DGA negotiation strategy:
(http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-cates25dec25,1,4142465.story?ctrack=3&cset=true
Note in particular that apparently the DGA’s research SUPPORTS the AMPTP position. (And BTW, I know one of the consultants involved in the DGA project– definitely not a shill.)
Now, I happen to agree that the WGA has overvalued digital media growth (mostly by not offsetting the extent to which it cannibalizes other revenue particularly in terms of Balkanized ad markets), but what I believe isn’t the point– the point is the DGA is going to base their online residual demands on *much* more conservative fiscal projections than has the WGA. So, again, they will probably try to get more upfront money, which the AMPTP will gladly give them to make a deal, since it’s ten times cheaper than pattern-bargained residuals.
And people are completely mischaracterizing Gavin Polone’s point. Which isn’t that the deal in Novemeber (or December) was acceptable, but that maybe, an overall different strategy over the past two years could have gotten us where we’ll end up anyway, but without a strike (and without spending millions in WGA dues on failed reality organizing campaigns and anti-product placement lobbying and so forth). Ten years from now, some labor studies phD candidate will write a dissertation about whether the WGA f**ked up or not. I’m pretty sure her conclusion will be that the WGA f**ked up.
And for their next “tactical” move, the entire membership of the AMPTP (and their shills) will paint themselves blue, hoot like baboons, lift their kilts and wag their dicks at us to show us how fearlessly insane they really are. That’ll scare us even more!
Gavin Palone is full of baloney. That’s right, I said it, baloney.
He blames the Guild’s hostile attitude going back to ‘05. Nonsense. These negotiations were supposed to begin in July. What happened in July? The AMPTP said: take Internet off the table or we will not talk to you, period.
That’s a fact. So to spin it now like it’s the WGA’s attitude? What a bunch of… baloney. How about the attitude of the AMPTP saying, And one more thing: no residuals ever again ever.
That’s not hostile? That’s not only hostile, but a colossal blunder. It scared the shit out of the DGA, and now the AMPTP will not get nearly as good a deal as it could have from the DGA.
As for Palone’s argument that the WGA strike will not help the DGA’s leverage… wow! That’s nuts. No wonder Palone only got Conan those crappy deals the first few years of his show. Because in my opinion, if he doesn’t understand how we’ve propped up the DGA, then he doesn’t understand Negotiating 101. Maybe that’s why he went into the producing business instead.
But the most important thing to remember is that Gavin Palone is a producer. It’s pretty much as if Jeff Zucker or Peter Chernin or even Nick Counter were posting on this blog. What would you expect them to say?
As for the fi-core thing and high level writers, what a bunch of nonsense. Truth be told, Gavin, it turns out that I was speaking to one of the CEO’s recently and he told me he’s about to cave because of the advertising give-backs and the fear of Wall Street analysts downgrading his stock further considering that it’s near its 52-week low arleady. He told me that some of the other CEO’s are also thinking of throwing in the towel and wanted to before Christmas but will definitely cave before January.
Of course these CEO’s didn’t tell YOU that, Gavin, because you’re one of the hard liners. Why would the CEO’s who are breaking from the pack want to share that information with any producers who are on the other side?
Stay Strong. For fuck’s sake, stand, don’t crawl. And don’t listen to the scumbag shills posting here at an increasingly frenzied rate (and at Christmas the low-lifes); it’s just an indication that we are having an painful effect and that the AMPTP underestimated our strength and resolve. How ironic that the studios are paying scumbag shill writers to post all these pathetic attempts to break the WGA. It’s really easy to come on here, shill, and puke the party line that no one needs writers, that the strike is not having an effect on the bottom line, that reality will just replace scripted programming and that we have no economic power. How demoralizing that would be if anyone believed it. But even the industry mouthpiece rag Hollywood Reporter doesn’t buy it (see below). We’re looking at EARNING DOWNGRADES. Oh, so if shareholders are unhappy, being the powerless simpletons they are (naive little mom and pop investors like Morgan Stanley and State Street) they can just sell. Well guess what that means (hint: stock prices don’t rise when everyone’s selling). Make no mistake, this is about destroying the union, not ever making a deal, let alone a fair deal, and if the DGA has to be a stooge for the AMPTP’s goals, well what are they going to direct? Our power is in our solidarity and in withholding our talent, which is what the AMPTP needs to make dollar #1.
Street sign: Long strike will hurt
By Carl DiOrio and Paul J. Gough
Dec 4, 2007
STRIKE ZONE: LATEST NEWS AND UPDATES
UPDATED 8:59 p.m. PT Dec. 3, 2007
In a report issued on the eve of reconvened negotiations between the WGA and studio reps, a Wall Street firm said Monday that it will cut its earnings forecast on media conglomerates if the writers strike drags into the new year.
Natixis Bleichroeder said in an investors note that “the strike is beginning to have an economic impact on the television business, will shortly begin impacting the film side (and) if not resolved will impact our estimates for 2008.”
The investment firm said companies whose earnings could be hurt by a protracted writers strike include CBS, Time Warner, Disney, News Corp. and Viacom. But owners of broadcast networks would be hurt first and CBS the most, Natixis said.
“Assuming the strike costs ABC, CBS and Fox each $100 million of revenue and income off of their $5 billion-$6 billion of TV network and station businesses, the impact would be 9 cents off of our 2008 CBS estimate of $1.95 (earnings per share), 3 cents per share off of our (Disney) estimate of $2.30 and 2 cents per share off of our (News Corp.) estimate of $1.20,” the firm said.
Natixis noted “some hope and speculation that the strike will be settled in the next few weeks.” But it added that there was a “possibility that this strike could stretch out into 2008.”
Longer-term impacts of the writers walkout include “accelerated migration of viewers from traditional media into new media,” the firm said.
Mike:
An upfront dollar to the DGA will still cost the AMPTP $10 ($9.50 actually) due to pattern bargaining. It all ends up following the 1:1:3:4.5 pattern.
And I’m sure the WGA is overstating the value of today’s online business. I am also sure the AMPTP is understating it. But there will be much growth. Both sides know that. Both sides SAY that. That’s why it should be a percentage of distributor’s gross. Everyone is protected.
These are simple issues if everyone wanted to be fair and reasonable. They don’t. They feel they “win” if the other side gets screwed. A deal that is good for both sides is the best long-term option.
A big problem is that in the past, networks and studios had the goal of trying to produce a product that more and more people would want to see. That’s how they became more successful. Since these companies have become these huge conglomerates, it’s all about the bottom line. And there is no difference whether the bottom line improves from increasing revenue or from reducing costs. And it’s a lot easier to cut costs than to come up with the next Cosby Show.
Jeff Zucker has played this shift better than anyone. During the time he programmed NBC, he was a complete failure when it came to development and getting more eyeballs. NBC’s viewership plummeted. But he gave the Friends actors raises to one million each per episode to keep the show around another season. Then, the next year, when it was gone, ratings took a freefall, BUT because he didn’t have the huge cost of employing those actors, the network’s profit actually went up. Supersizing — same thing. Trickery, rather than hit-making. But, his bosses and the shareholders didn’t care. They kept promoting him. He may have taken NBC from first to fourth, but he did it brilliantly.
Sad, but true.
One can’t argue with your decades of success Gavin:
But I can broaden the scope of your prognostications.
Yes, you’ve given your assessment of the network position — that they’d rather have ‘Dancing With The Stars’ than ‘Lost’. Even if I give you that round — which I won’t, we all know too well these are vertically integrated companies. So let’s talk library. If you were Touchstone, or Fox, or Universal would you rather have a library of ‘Dancing’ or ‘Deal or No Deal’ or ‘Singing Bee’ or would you choose door number two, ‘Law and Order’, ‘C.S.I’, ‘House’, et al.
My sense is the latter.
I also predict the WGA will not settle for the H/V formula. That’s a non-starter from 25 years ago that we are still paying for. If ‘reality’ is a non-starter for the AMPTP — you’ve hit the button for the Guilds.
I also would point out, as a writer, that the ‘good cop/bad cop’ scenario is a tried and true formula and the WGA doesn’t mind being the ‘bad cop’ to the DGA’s good cop. We all know how that dynamic works — and it does work. If the WGA can’t do it — and the DGA folds — there’s SAG waiting in the wings.
Besides the monetary template, the jurisdictional issue is the line in the sand.
We’ll see whether the internet stays ‘non-Guild’ like
‘reality’ or comes under the jurisdiction of the Guilds.
I predict none of the guilds will settle for the H/V
template. One of us is right and one of us is wrong.
I’ll let you buy me lunch! (:-)
Gavin, I hear what you’re saying, but it doesn’t address the possibility of a SAG action that the AMPTP is not going to want to see happen come July. If the TV and pilot seasons are busted out, there really is no incentive for the AMPTP to try to hurry a deal with the WGA. They would be more likely to make sure that SAG signs the new deal first, and then go back to the WGA with both of the other major guilds in their pocket. You may be right about some writers going financial core – we’ll have to see. But that will not hasten the WGA to end this matter. It’s more likely to extend the strike, just like the threat of it did last time in 1988. (Many people mistakenly think that the Writers Coalition forced the WGA to end the 88 strike. That’s not the case. They actually extended that strike by at least another month by convincing the AMPTP to hold out longer since there appeared to be division in the WGA.)
Klaatu wrote:
Are you *sure* about that? I was told otherwise by an entertainment lawyer friend, but maybe she was wrong. Although, looking at the upfront minimum schedules for the different guilds, I don’t see any obvious correlation, though of course I’d have to see the changes over time to be sure one way or another.
Fellow writers,
Let’s prove Gavin Polone wrong. If we ARE presented a contract that doesn’t give us what we want in DVD, new media, animation, reality TV and separated rights. let’s vote it right down.
Also, let’s none of us be his clients. What a douchebag.
Lola–
You’ve now made your “you’re not on our side” point several times, so I thought I would address this to see if you could come up with something new. I am not on any side. Certainly not on the side of the studios, with whom I have had many disagreements. I don’t side with “the writers,” but rather with my individual friends who are writers. Even if we don’t agree on the process, I hope they are satisfied with the result of their struggle. My points are meant to offer advice on what I think are the problems at hand in this conflict. I have, mostly, been commenting on the conduct of the negotiation by the WGA. I have had quite a bit of experience in negotiating with the studios and I know the people who make the decisions at those studios. Because I post my name, you can validate that fact for yourself.
Some think it is a good thing to listen to divergent opinions about strategy, even if they ultimately don’t accept those opinions. I guess you feel differently. It would seem that you follow the theory that you are either on one side or the other and you should subscribe to the strategy of that side as promoted by its leadership. Certainly, this is a very common behavior and there is a long history of its results. Good luck with that.
I do find it interesting and beneficial to listen to the opinions of others, if only to get a sense of where people stand and how things are moving. Are you a WGA member who has been working consistently? From the ham-handedness of your attempts at sarcasm, the banality of your insults and the extreme repetition of your points, I would guess not. But, maybe, prose isn’t your thing and you write really wonderful scripts. Why not post your full name, so we can fully appreciate from where such strident beliefs are coming?
Phooey–
It is hard to believe that you were talking to one of the CEOs and that he told you that he was about to cave. Then again, if you had some balls and posted your name, an assessment could be made.
Kevin–
I agree that a SAG strike will be very damaging to the studios but I think that eventuality could speed things up. The studios have a year’s worth of films in production or the can but, come July, they really have to start thinking about the second half of ‘09. I don’t think they want to leave this whole thing hanging until summer. Further, I think they trust the actors less than the writers. There are even more non-working actors than writers. Hell, I’m a SAG member. That leads to extreme positions.
I went through the ‘88 strike and remember the writer’s coalition-remember Lionel Chetwynd- as being a catalyst for the end of the strike. But you could be right there. Either way, I think, if some went fi-core, and some TV shows came back, it would erode the WGA morale and boost AMPTP strength. I think that morale is already being tested. My guess is that the WGA leaders are going to use the next opportunity to get a deal done, rather than hand even more leverage to the studios by having its members leave them and help generate more revenue for their adversary. Obviously, just conjecture.
Kevin writes:
(Many people mistakenly think that the Writers Coalition forced the WGA to end the 88 strike. That’s not the case. They actually extended that strike by at least another month by convincing the AMPTP to hold out longer since there appeared to be division in the WGA.)
Yes, thanks for pointing that out, Kevin. And let’s hope others remember that, this time.
Mike:
If one union gets any more money, no matter how it is alloated, I would assume the other unions would demand the same.
It seems to me (as an economist) that the big players maybe playing more than one side, they soak the loss that they’ve had and is coming, until the small players start going up on the auction block. they envelope them and suddenly big media is a lot bigger. Plus this will appear as growth on shareholder reports, which will buy them time to “my way or the highway” the WGA, DGA, and SAG.
The best solution is for small players to split off and form their own group, and come to a fair contract, that will have them up and running, while the behemoths still slag along. The AMPTP is the group that should be broken here.
Intrigued wrote:
“For those of you who don’t believe the moguls are serious about writing off the entire season becasue of the pressure from stockholders… You might want to check the stock prices of theses conglomerates!”
I did, oh Wise One…and you might check the article re: CBS Corps in TODAY’s Wall Street Journal, which states flatly that earnings are DOWN 25%. Sure there are other factors than the strike, and sure they can “save” a bunch by not producing product people and advertisers actually want…but only accountants with limited IQ’s think that makes a good business model.
After reading all the news and comments on this website since the strike started, I have come to the conclusion that the viewers don’t matter one damn bit to the CEOs, advertisers, etc. I abhor reality shows and game shows; I think they are mindless. My tv is officially off. I can find plenty of books to read.
Mike, your argument about the DGA study is specious. “Formative” and “experiencing rapid growth” are not mutually exclusive. In fact, just the opposite. Successful companies experience their most rapid growth in their “formative” years. Think Microsoft, etc.
Your ignorance would not be a problem, were you not posting as if you’re some Harvard PhD. Who knows, maybe you are. Maybe you’re a paid shill. Doesn’t matter. What matters is that you’re saying the fact that the inernet is in its formative stage supports the AMPTP’s position. That’s retarded. The WGA never said the Internet had reached maturity; they’ve said just the opposite, that we have to get it covered now before we lose it forever.
And again Mike, vis-a-vis your kissing Palone’s ass on the “hostile” Guild of the past two years, the AMPTP is the one who refused to talk, unless we took Internet completely off the table or accepted their proposal to completely eliminate all residuals for good. NO wga writer that I’ve met supported the idea of no more residuals ever — in fact, every one I knew said that was a strike issue for them. Since you apparently weren’t bothered by the thought of losing your residuals forever and didn’t view that proposal as hostile, the only conclusion anyone can draw is that you’re either a studio exec or someone they or their consultants have paid to post here.
Take my advice, “Mike” — you’re not getting any younger. It’s time to get a real job.
If this strike goes on until June, and then SAG goes on strike, what good would that do? I’m kinda scratching my head here. There won’t be any TV scripts to shoot, and movie studios will have a lot of movies in the can, so they’ll be ok just like they are now.
Phoeey, the CEO you were talking to was totally jerking your chain. He knew you were on the writers’ side so told you that he wants to throw in the towel, then turned around and grinned wickedly.
Can I just say that posters like Marjorie David, Bill Taub, Kevin and others raise the level of comments and discussion on this site. When they disagree with somebody, they respond with respect and intelligence while still not backing down from their positions. This is what actually keeps writers united. Instead of the name-calling and shill-calling against anyone who disagrees with the hardliners. This is the kind of discourse that encourages people to honor one anothers views and helps to maintain a level of cohesion. It is possible to disagree with points and still be united and informed.
I just can’t understand why so many people try to be inflammatory and derogatory and disenfranchise their own peers when everyone has a common goal.
I’ve been following Ms. Finke’s reports on the strike with interest — reading everyone’s comments here –instead of tuning in to primetime (nothing much left to see), and here’s the part I don’t understand. My TV shows live and die by the ratings — by the advertiser dollars that the ratings represent, right? And these shows are all chosen to air in hopes that they will get good ratings and thus make lots of money. So how does it make ANY sense for the studios to say now –”Nevermind, all that doesn’t matter — screw this season — screw next season.”???
It sounds like union busting to me.
I’ll tell you what we got for Christmas — lots and lots of books, DVD’s and board games. Quaint, I know. And here I am online instead of tuned in — I’m kinda enjoying the quiet actually.
Let me know if there’s anything I can do besides not watch . . . . .
I’m just a lowly TV viewer from the Midwest who’s not in the TV industry as a writer, crew member, costume designer, FX guy, etc., but I can put my two cents in about the strike.
First of all, I support all of the writers in this dispute, as they are the creative people who make most of the movies and TV shows possible in the first place. As for the AMPTP and studio heads who think that they can ride out the strike by putting up an avalanche of reality shows, they should take a long look at the ratings for their summer TV programs. Granted, summertime is not the cash cow that November or February sweeps are, but most of their reality shows tanked in the ratings last summer. And they put on a bunch of reality TV crap like the stuff they have been for the past couple of years, viewers will bolt way in droves to DVDs, video games, or who knows, they may even take up reading again. And the reality shows that are hits (American Idol, Dancing With The Stars, Survivor, Amazing Race) are going to be affected the same way Who Wants To Be A Millionaire was when ABC ran the show into the ground. And with a dwindling number of TV viewers to speak of, advertisers are going to pull away or demand huge discounts to plug their wares, and the parent companies of the networks are going to have to answer to angry shareholders. CBS, Disney, and Time Warner won’t have much leverage, and while News Corp and GE could hold out in theory, remember that GE’s most profitable divisions are their finance unit (GE Capital) and NBC/Universal. However, with the housing crisis affecting the entire banking sector, GE’s finance division will get squeezed by the credit crunch, and with NBC lagging in fourth place with no hit shows to air during the strike, GE will take a massive hit in the bottom line.
The other problem for the AMPTP and networks is that they need the scripted shows to resell into the DVD, online, and syndication markets because reality shows don’t sell in those markets. The networks have made a fortune from selling their hit shows on DVD and on iTunes (not to mention overseas), and even the shows that have only marginally successful can have their costs recouped on the back end. It’s this revenue stream which is in dispute which the writers are asking for fair compensation for, yet the studios want to own and make money on this content forever without having to share with anyone. This was how the record companies were able to screw over musicians for so long, but once Napster, iTunes, Myspace, and YouTube came along and allowed the musicians to go directly to the fans, it basically undermined the music industry as we know it. TV and movies are going the same direction. Either the AMPTP can negotiate a good deal with the WGA, DGA, SAG, and AFTRA and share in the spoils of new media together, or they can go the way of the buggy whip and 8-track tape.
I come here to read the comments and get various opinions on the strike. A lot of stuff here is interesting, but I have to say-
1) to all of you who call those you disagree with “shills”, please. You really are suffering from delusions. You make it seem as if the AMPTP is something out of a 1960s James Bond movie, a giant organization with 100s of henchmen sitting at computers, monitoring all message boards and slipping in their propaganda… Actually it’s just real people who have a different opinion.
2) this notion that people will never settle for reality TV and game shows…did you ask them? I mean, I hate it (and many of you do), but I’ve never watched “Survior” or “The Bachelor” but apparently they do fine without me (or you). A lot of this is called Wishful Thinking, as opposed to a real anaylsis of the situation.
3) Ditto with the delusion of falling stock prices causing investor and consumer discontent to drive the AMPTP to a deal. Not that these things won’t hurt or be noticed, but one little thing you’re forgetting. The people who REALLY get the moguls to answer their phonecalls won’t mind if it’s all in the name of driving down labor costs (and perhaps breaking a union for good measure). Seriously, ask them.
4) The odd conservative trolls here are amusing.
Look, I’m a BTL person, and the whole situation is unfortunate. It sucks that corporations are evil. It sucks that everyone can’t be nice and share. It sucks that it takes a strike to try and keep union conditions in the New Media Universe. It sucks that BTL workers are left holding their (metaphorical) dicks while having no dog in this fight.
But that doesn’t mean that every move the WGA has made is pure genius, and that to criticize them is become a Nazi. Let people put forth their points of view, and if you don’t agree with them, try to come back with something better than “you’re just lying for The Man” schtik.
One last thing: face up to the fact that if you’re going to deal with the truth, that most of that truth is going to be unpleasant. Most people don’t care about the strike. They will watch reality TV, more of it than you want to believe. Or they will play videogames, or watch old movies and TV shows for 2 years. The corporations will not break a sweat, Google will not save you (not now anyway), and plenty of people will be hurt.
This isn’t some EST meeting or Tony Robbins pow-wow. Simply marching around and yelling “STAY STRONG” is not going to cut it.
Thanks and have a nice day!
anotherWGAmember:
What’s next, farming the writing out to third world countries? Don’t laugh. It CAN happen. Maybe not Thailand and Vietnam, but what about England?
Members of the Writers’ Guild of Great Britain are supporting the WGA strike, so we won’t work for the struck companies.
Just like we supported you guys in the ‘88 strike.
See http://snipurl.com/wggbpledge for the WGGB’s statement when the WGA strike began.
As the statement says, strikebreaking may bring in the cash short term, but in the long run it’ll harm UK writer’s careers and income when we work in the US.
- Richard
The TV market (by which I mean the TV audience) can bear about two successful reality shows a year, and one of those is always American Idol. If all five networks are relying on reality for an entire season, then it’s a safe bet that by the end of said season, at least one of those networks will be dead.
Maybe that reality (no pun intended) isn’t hard for the execs at the tippy-top to swallow. But then again, the tippy-top execs aren’t the ones making the deal here. People are ALWAYS blabbing on about how the corporate parents don’t care about the strike. Well, if that’s the case, then they also wouldn’t care if their sons and nephews and underlings offered the writers a fair deal. If scripted entertainment really doesn’t affect their bottom line, then scripted entertainment doesn’t affect their bottom line.
However, no good CEO is going to let the president of a failing network stay on. They’re as replaceable as the donuts on the craft service table. But those donuts do wield power in the AMPTP, and once it’s clear that their jobs are on the line, they might just be ready to step back into the negotiating room. Because we all know that when an exec gets replaced, his successor is obligated by studio system law to do the opposite of everything his predecessor did. It may not look good for the guys in the seats right now to cave in to the WGA, but when they get fired, their replacements will look like heroes for finally getting the writers to come back to work.
Real WGA Member:
Don’t you think it’s kind of funny that some people criticize supposed paid shills on this board for sounding illiterate, and you’re accusing me of being a paid shill because I ’sound like a Harvard phD’? (Which I’m not- either a paid shill, or a phD. I am, like you, a WGA member. Sorry if my being able to write decently and formulate an argument makes me suspect to you.)
You are refuting mis-characterizations of my argument. Yes, all parties agree that the internet is in a formative period. The question that people disagree on is the extent to which growth is going to be at the expense of cannibalization of profits from other media. Particularly in scripted television. Particularly in a scripted television environment in which very few shows make back their deficit financing. I could go on about this, but then you’ll just accuse me of sounding like a Harvard phD and being a shill.
Re: kissing Palone’s butt, I know that the AMPTP profit-based reisdual prosoal as BS. Believe me, I like my residual checks, and I’m glad I get them even though every show I’ve worked on in my short-ish career so far has lost about a million bucks per episode– yet I’ve still made about 100K from residuals. I am angry at the AMPTP for floating the idea of profit-based residuals and I can’t imagine they thought anyone would take it seriously, and I do think it was probably the biggest misstep in this whole negotiation by either party.
But Polone’s point, which I agree with, is that that this silly, destructive, evil move by the AMPTP happened within a context of WGA posturing over the last two years. Millions spent on failed reality organizing, disrupting conferences, etc. If the WGA had spent that money on a serious study of all the various ways in which new media might play out (as the DGA has done) and maybe hired a lawyer to negotiate the deal (again, like the DGA), I think two things would have happened. 1) The WGA pattern of demands would have been more nuanced and complicated (maybe including, for instance, creditability of new media residuals against broadcast reruns, so as to ease the transition from the latter to the former) and 2) We’d have a deal by now, and it won’t be much different from what we’ll get in April or May.
And– important point– know which party was the first to postpone the start of the negotiations? Hint: starts with a W. The WGA originally proposed to begin negotiations in January of 2007. Then, around Novemeber 2006, David Young changed his mind, saying that more time was needed to study the issues and that the WGA wouldn’t be ready until the summer. It’s pretty clear that this was a tactic to delay negotiations so as to increase our strike leverage. I hope it works out. Very much worth reading this article from November 2006: http://tinyurl.com/252dfo
Anyway, here I go again, making coherent arguments instead of spewing insults, like some damn Harvad phD. Sorry to offend you, Real WGA Member!
The following was posted a few comments back by someone very smart. I’m reposting it because I think folks should really think about it…
“It seems to me (as an economist) that the big players maybe playing more than one side, they soak the loss that they’ve had and is coming, until the small players start going up on the auction block. they envelope them and suddenly big media is a lot bigger. Plus this will appear as growth on shareholder reports, which will buy them time to “my way or the highway” the WGA, DGA, and SAG.
The best solution is for small players to split off and form their own group, and come to a fair contract, that will have them up and running, while the behemoths still slag along. The AMPTP is the group that should be broken here.”
Wow.
Now, I don’t have a good guess as to when this strike will end or if the Guild will get what they’re asking for. But I think the world ahead, past the strike, is unpredictable and dangerous. You have to believe that these enormous companies have a much bigger picture view of this. There’s no way they care all that much about a few points or dollars here and there. It’s all imaginary cash that no one gets unless everyone is making money.
You have to believe that these massive corporate entities are operating at a much subtler level with far outreaching goals. I think the above post is an excellent guess.
We may or may not get our 4 cents or unionize the animation world that our president hails from. To us, that’s our focus. To them, much broader and probably weirder.
We need to broaden our focus to match theirs. Use your writer’s imagination, think diabolical and think ahead. I’m not sure who I’m talking to here.
Anyway, we chose a very pivotal time to strike here. there’s a lot going on. There’s a war on, there’s a recession looming, housing is in the shitter. People are watching less and less television and no one knows how to make money on the internet. I’ll be very surpised if the strike is simply settled and we all go back to things the way they were.
I support my union. Last time I paid for codeine cough syrup, I couldn’t find my WGA insurance card and paid full price. It was 80 dollars. With the card it would have been 5. I got a residual check last week that saved my christmas. I didn’t fight to get these things, my union did, long before I became a writer. So I will support whatever they do today.
I believe that no one gives you anything because they should. Especially not a giant company. They give it to you because you make them. We have the power to make them because we do something that they can’t, and that any person can’t be trained to do. So to me this strike is business and I only pray that the people we chose know what they are doing. I know John Bowman and the guy is brilliant and compassionate so that gives me hope.
I am very worried for all the friends that I have made in television who are not working today because of our strike and who don’t have any residual checks coming. Writers are vital to television but they are not the only people alive. I hope that everyone is keeping this in mind. I think the hosts of the late night shows are keeping this in mind so I don’t blame them for their tough decisions.
When you break up with a woman and then go around town calling her a cunt, it’s going to be tough when you get back together with her later.
Why am I posting this? I hate talking on the internet. Oh well. Happy New Year everyone, and good luck to us all.
LCK
PG wrote:
“to all of you who call those you disagree with “shills”, please. You really are suffering from delusions. You make it seem as if the AMPTP is something out of a 1960s James Bond movie, a giant organization with 100s of henchmen sitting at computers, monitoring all message boards and slipping in their propaganda… Actually it’s just real people who have a different opinion.”
Well, PG, the reality is that there probably are trolls sitting on this blog, and United Hollywood, and a few others, pretending to be writers (in this phase) as they were pretending to be hardworking “truck drivers” etc. in an earlier phase. And their mission is simply to try and plant the idea that our union is beginning to crack apart, when there is in fact, no evidence whatsoever that this is happening.
And those of us who spend a lot of time studying the “state of the union” are aware of this; so when someone posts…and I’m not talking about you…and chants the same old dirge: we WGA members are being led astray by our radical leaders, etc., as if we really don’t know EXACTLY what we want from these negotiations; then, PG, writers deeply involved in this negotiation(and a work stoppage is simply negotiation by other means) are going to suspect someone who claims to be writer, yet doesn’t seem to get this, or understand the importance of getting a fair deal for Internet content and reuse of material…we are going to suspect him or her of being a troll, astroturfer, shill, plant… whatever. Because they don’t have the faintest inkling how the writers involved in the strike really think.
And no, PG, we don’t believe there are “a hundred” trolls, but there are a few. Trolls existed long before this strike, and savvy Internet users know about them, and keep an eye out for them and their tactics. And unless they are complete morons, trolls will change their names, alter their “back stories” and keep at it.
I personally find dissent from people on the other side, or from neutrals, to be of interest. I know where they’re coming from. BUT I don’t at all appreciate people LYING about their identities, trying to persuade others that the cause is lost. It’s an ancient tactic, much older than newsprint, and it is effective if it isn’t exposed for what it is.
I’ve only outed one suspected troll in six weeks, challenged him to come back and respond. Hasn’t happened. Won’t happen. He/she will simply try again under another name.
So calling us “delusional” implies either naivete or craft. I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt. But if you don’t think most people give a shit about the strike, I am puzzled by your angry sign off, “Have a nice day!” Well, we aren’t having a nice day, or a nice month, PG. We’re having one hell of an argument with our employers; one that started as a reasonable discussion.
Groups of employees, when denied the recognition or remuneration they feel they deserve or need, have only one recourse: to deny their employers of their services. This tends to graphically demonstrate the worth of those employees not only to their employers, but to the community at large. Or, of course, they can roll over, allow their best interests be trampled on, allow their leverage in their own profession to erode and disappear.
You, PG, seem to say that screen and television writers have no intrinsic worth to the society at large, and they will be cast aside. I respectfully differ. Storytellers once travelled from village to village, and before that from cave to cave. It is an ancient, very humanistic profession we practice, and if it weren’t in some way necessary for the human spirit, it would have died out long ago. Storytellers didn’t plant, plow, or haul heavy objects, didn’t have a REAL JOB. They lived by their wits and their ability to entertain and inform. Yet they were welcomed into the caves, the villages, the towns, and eventually the cities. There probably were people who resented them because they lived by their imaginations. But they…that is…we…are still here, and still resented by some. I hope you aren’t one of those people.
We do believe most people recognize our worth…when they think about it. We are, after all just part of an invisible army that brings entertainment to the people. There are polls that support that view, and not yours, PG. But you’re entitled to your opinions. And I, mine. And I’m pretty sure I’ve been thinking about what it is I do and what it’s worth to others longer than you have.
So, PG, have a nice day. Really. I mean it. It’s Christmas week. Enjoy yourself. Go to a movie. Maybe you’ll see something that makes you laugh or moves you deeply. I have. But please, afterwords, don’t pretend that the people who gave you that story have no real importance in modern society. That if they disappear, the world won’t miss them.
And by the way, even video games are written by someone.
As for me, I’m not going to bust any more trolls. Been there, done that. Can’t say that I got much satisfaction from it. But I hope others will be skeptical when reading any comment posted anywhere in a blog. Skepticism and vigilance are learned human traits, and both are necessary for survival.
Pax vobiscum
Da*n It!!!
scribeguy-
Boy, did you misread me. That “have a nice day” sign off was not in anger but in earnest. Albeit with an ironic tone because if we (people who work in the movies, and love them as well) look at everything with clear eyes then things are quite grim at the moment.
Second, I’m not going to argue that a troll or two isn’t out there, not at all. But that’s not what I was talking about. I’m talking about the knee-jerk reaction some people seem to have to almost every post here that deviates from a rather strident opinion. I’m not quite sensing the general attitude you’re claiming- which is to accept a different POV from someone real but to attack the “phonies” who are part of a union-busting tactic. It seems to me that there are some people here who dismiss stuff they don’t want to hear with the “AMPTP propaganda” brush. And I’m not even getting into the stuff with Gavin Palone.
Third, you make a grand assumption on MY point of view. I don’t view writers as having no value, and I never said as much. I’m a fan of many writers as I write myself, as a hobby (not a profession, not yet). Being a lover of great screenwriting does mean I’m going to agree with every move they make in a labor negoiation, nor am I going to feel that I have to cheerlead them every step of the way. Especially if I find some, SOME, of the fault is with them.
Listen, I hope THEY WIN. But I also hope my Pittsburgh Pirates win the World Series too. (For you non-baseball fans, that translates to hoping for “Transformers” to win Best Picture) However, while you should never let go of your hopes, at some point you gotta deal with the world as it is.
PG
PG:
Sorry if I read too much into your comments. And I did say that I hoped you weren’t one of the people who dissed screenwriting. Glad to see you aren’t.
I still don’t agree with your pessimistic assessment. But one thing you’ll learn if you decide to pursue a writing career. If you’re not optimistic about your chances, you’ll quickly talk yourself out of even sitting down at the computer and typing FADE IN:
So, I guess trying to find hope is just part of being a writer, and not really looking at the odds stacked against you. I’ve been making a living at this for 20 years, now, so I’ll just assume my attitude has something to do with it. And as my sainted Irish grandmother used to say when she bounced me on her knee: “Don’t let the bastards get ye down!”
Anyway, good exchanging thoughts with you.