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First a dog movie is No. 1. Then a Zac Efron movie will top the box office this weekend with what my gurus tell me should be be a $40-plus million opening. This is why serious screenwriters weep. (While Peter Barsocchini laughs all the way to the bank.) Not only did High School Musical 3: Senior Year move into MovieTicket.com's Top-20 Pre-Sale List of All-Time Tuesday night, and currently sits at No. 20. As of 12 PM ET, HSM3 accounted for 83% of tickets sold today at MovieTickets.com. Additionally, the film has made up 85% of the site's ticket sales this week. Meanwhile at rival ticketseller Fandango.com, HSM3 is eating up 86% of all its online ticket sales. So it'll be interesting to see how HSM2's huge Disney Channel ratings translates into HSM3's theatrical ticket sales. After all, no one can recall a TV movie (as opposed to TV series) that has been made into a theatrical motion picture sequel. One for the record books.
If HSM3 is merely lumped into the musical genre category, then it has to be compared against the under-$30M North American opening weekend grosses of Mamma Mia and Hairspray which went after predominantly younger and female audiences. But, get this: Disney thinks there could "a very tough competitive weekend ahead" because of Lionsgate's Saw V which also has a built-in fan base that consistently opens that revolting franchise in the $30sM.
Somebody's smokin' something on Dopey Drive... Different genres, different audiences, no overlap. Female teens and over-18s who are the audience for musicals as well as horror flicks are increasingly demonstrating that they're repelled by the content of hardcore gorefests which are no longer suitable for Date Night, especially if they contain torture porn. That's one reason why pics like Saw V are quickly becoming a thing of the past in favor of Soft R and PG-13.
Meanwhile, it's incredible how the fabled Walt Disney PR machine, which used to be so formidable, has completely collapsed. It used to be that Disney would have at the ready all sorts of advance business info about their upcoming films, down to the smallest detail about marketing and psychographics. Now it's like pulling teeth. I know it only seems as if Disney is making 6 pics a year when it's really 12 to 13. But has Bob Iger slashed his publicity and marketing departments to the bone? Or is Disney's infamous penchant for secrecy interfering with its ability to sell effectively?
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Oh Lord… the apocalypse is upon us.
At least it has no chance in hell in outgrossing “The Dark Knight”, which is actually, you know, a good movie. The Disney made-for-TV movies were horrible.
The movie just came out here in England, and after seeing it tonight, I can say that it’s actually quite good. I’m not sure what kinds of movies the “serious” screenwriters you talk about would choose to write at this moment, but High School Musical is exactly the type of fun, escapist fare that historically has done well during tense economic times. Remember Busby Berkeley? Truly “serious” work.
Have you lost your mind? Every movie has to be an epic drama written by an award winning scribe? I tend to agree with you on a lot of issues but if you really think it’s a bad thing for the industry to have successful films geared towards kids, families and teens you’ve lost it. Any movie that gets people to plunk down hard earned $$ at the box office especially in tough economic times is good for everyone in the industry – I dare say including yourself!
Gimme a friggin break!
Nikki, I’m a huge fan, but as you sometimes do, you’ve once again snarked an undeserved party. Peter Barsocchini, who wrote the HSM movies, deserves a ton of respect for writing this hugely successful franchise. As a fellow writer, I’d kill to be in his shoes, and I don’t for one second think the fact that it’s a kids-oriented series diminishes his tremendous accomplishment. I don’t hear you bagging on screenwriters who write huge comic book movies (and you shouldn’t), so why this?
AMPTP? Evil. Writer of HSM3? Awesome. There is middle ground on the spectrum.
I think the whole thing is pretty interesting, actually. You have a television movie and its sequel give birth to a threequel on the big screen, which is kind of like…reverse evolution in this industry.
I’m just glad they didn’t go with the original concept of the Haunted High School Musical…holiday theming would have narrowed the appeal way too much, I think. Still, it’s weird that they’re bringing a graduation movie out while the new school year is still relatively young…seems like it would have made more sense to do some grad tie-ins around beginning of summer.
I think you can read this two ways:
1. Eleven-year old girls control the Universe.
2. Audiences are so hungry for simple escapism that they’re willing to watch craptastic calorie-free musicals. Seriously, when the stock market’s down 500 points, who wants doom and gloom?
where is harry potter
Half those HSM3 ticket sales are going to be bought by teens who are sneaking into SAW V.
Silly jk rowling, you know where he is… Warners moved his sixth movie to next July after the humongous success of “Dark Knight” encouraged them that they didn’t need any more money for 2008.
After the fiasco where “Speed Racer” and “Body of Lies” tanked, you’d figure that Warners is regretting that decision even after being publicly flogged by die-hard fans for the July move.
I’m not against musicals, but I suppose this movie makes up for the underperforming “Prince Caspian” Disney stupidly moved to May alongside IM and Indy 4. But I just do not like Zac Efron (or his on-screen/off-screen girlfriend either)… period.
Nikki — two things.
One, Disney’s PR has collapsed because they know in a recession the amount of money parents will spend to keep 11 year old girls happy and see this movie is pretty limited.
Two, this movie will likely not very well, compared to past iterations, because of the recession.
It’s a recession. People want value for their money.
Serious Hollywood Screenwriter circa 2008=contradiction in terms.
this should put to rest any questions about how big an opening ‘twilight’ will have…
Now if only Zac Efron was getting dismembered in Saw 5…
Nikki, we know you hate the horror genre but do you have to harp on it and get histrionic about it every chance you get?
We get it. Jesus.
Considering how much you’re bitching and moaning about it, I’ll laugh if it opens huge. Almost as funny as last year when you were bitching about “revolting” horror yet Saw 4 was being advertized on this very website. LMAO!
I saw a scene from HM3 on DWTS last night and it looked like shit (terrible choreography which is ironic considering it’s directed by a choreographer, terrible lipsynching) but the audience will go to it because audiences want escape from their boring fucked up lives and so they’ll see this or that damn Jamie Lee Curtis dog movie. Few people think Sophie’s Choice is a good time.
This is the kind of film that Disney has always done better than anyone else, aimed at an audience that is primed, and sold by a well-tuned distribution machine that could get 90/10 vs 50 in its sleep. And it’s not just teenage girls who want to see Zac Efron in a musical. Hello? HSM is as gay as the front row of a Cher concert.
Comment by Matt C — October 22, 2008 @ 2:45 pm
Matt, I like you but for you to put HMS3 in the same sentence with Dark Knight is a disgrace to what we call quality entertainment.
HMS3 is for those no-brainers and younglings. DK is not for them. Disney version of quality entertainment are those involving the following;
1) Dog/talking animal/puke galore
2) Mean Hero acting with kids
3) Riding on Pixar animations
4) Nicholas Cage
5) Cutesy Princess in trouble with a Prince to save the day
BV is no WB nor DSKG.
By the way, wouldn’t it be great if eleven year old girls controlled the universe? We could all ride to work on unicorns. That would be great.
“One, Disney’s PR has collapsed because they know in a recession the amount of money parents will spend to keep 11 year old girls happy and see this movie is pretty limited.”
You don’t have kids do you? My girls have been eagerly awaiting this film for months now, all but counting down the days until it opens. They’ve got a whole playdate/movie/sleepover event planned – and you know what? I think it’s kinda cool that they show so much passion for a movie. Reminds me of, well, me when Star Wars first came out.
It’s simple.
1. Tent pole franchises like “Star Trek” and “Sex and the City” and “Batman” and “will there be a ‘Sopranos’ movie?”
It’s official. Movies are the new series television. Governed by the same principles but on a much more dramatically staggered methodology of distribution so as not to dilute the franchise the way an old-style full season TV series runs out of steam.
2. Appointment television of quality like the old HBO and “Mad Men?”
Short season series television are the new movies. They can end elegantly without wearing out their welcome. Then refresh as movie franchises reconnecting with their old audiences who still miss them because they were of high quality and they didn’t wear out their welcome.
In one form or another the old cliffhanger serials are back – this time with big budgets, massive ad campaigns, and blockbuster lengths and status.
The ongoing transference between the two media is a permanent Hollywood business reality.
Audiences increasingly, probably permanently, do not discern between the two media.
Two hours of your time – is two hours of your time. That’s the way it is.
The few full season network shows that actually stick – are the ones that probably have the most potential to become a movie franchise which, I would imagine, will increasingly become a defining charasteristic of how they get pitched; and factor into why they get bought.
“Desperate Housewives;” “CSI;” “Law and Order,” etc. All future movie franchises begging to happen eventually. And perhaps probably will sooner or later depending on ultimate perceived demand.
It’s the potential for recognizable “branding” that motors the Hollywood economy, such as it is, these days. Hence “HSM3.”
No different than a pair of jeans in terms of marketing a logo.
And yet another reason why REAL “independent” filmmaking has all but evaporated.
James Schamus. I’m talking to you you bad machine.
Comment by Matt C — October 22, 2008 @ 4:30 pm:
“Silly jk rowling, you know where he is… Warners moved his sixth movie to next July after the humongous success of ‘Dark Knight’ encouraged them that they didn’t need any more money for 2008.”
Apparently, the real news from Matt C is that J.K. Rowling had a sex change.
I’m just perplexed that they didn’t film two of these back-to-back.
this is the same generation that thinks “No Country for Old Men” sucks while cheering on for HSM and Twilight.
dear fucking lord, what’s happening to us?
Who wants serious and depressing. If I want that I’ll watch the fraking news. People need to have something fun to see and while HSM’s are not my cup of tea its nice to see a movie company making films for families. I want escapism and adventure not another depressing piece of liberal nonsense that spits on America.
This success was obvious to me when my gf bought a flight across the country to see this movie with her sister, and they are both in their early 20’s. This movie doesn’t just appeal to young Hannah Montana fans.
*A movie like the Dark knight was a very rare jewel, as there are very few films that are well made and correlate with big box office returns.
Ugly Punk Gurl –
Some of us pulled the whiney stick out of our bums, I guess? What’s the problem? Have big dreary pictures like that ever been widely beloved,anyway?
Especially in times like these…I’d much rather be waiting on line for advance Jonas Brothers 3-D Movie tickets to go on sale than bother with the average Oscar Contender(TM)…blech and yawn – and I say this as a cinemaphile.
As upsetting as it obviously is for whatever asinine reason people choose to come up with for being angry that alot of adults, teenagers, children, and parents are going to see this film, the fact remains it’s already a stellar success just based on preweekend ticket sales and it’s going to be much bigger before the weekend is over. Face it. You are witnessing the birth of one of the top ten movies in revenue for the year. Light hearted fun family films never harm anyone but kill thrill movies create a world of fear, depression, and paranoia. If you want to be miserable choose another film and avoid all the kids decked out in the red and white of East High. They are coming to a theater near you by the bus load.
You think getting tortured by one of Jigsaw’s deadly contraptions is torture?
Watching High School Musical, now that’s real torture!
OH MY GOD! There’s a TWELVE UNICORN PILE_UP ON THE INTERSTATE! SPARKLES AND HEARTS EVERYWHERE!!!
I have to say that depending on how audiences like HSM 3 — if they like it, I say it’ll probably dominate the B.O. until “Twilight” comes along. And if they don’t, it’ll just have a big opening weekend (although that’ll be more than enough to greenlight ANOTHER movie) and just fade from sight.
I’m not against wholesome family entertainment, but give me the Pixar flicks any day of the week. HSM is just… it just doesn’t resonate with me. It’s aimed at a different demographic other than college students, namely Efron fangirls and die-hard HSM fans.
Two words: Dennis Rice
“this is the same generation that thinks “No Country for Old Men” sucks while cheering on for HSM and Twilight.”
Are you serious? Those are two completely different demographics. You might as well try finding common ground between Ingmar Bergman and Ed Wood.
Ugly Punk Girl,
Can’t tweens and teens actually be TWEENS AND TEENS? They are after all – KIDS. Instead of rejoicing in the fact that KIDS are excited about a movie geared for and about happy, fun-loving KIDS you’ve got to mock them.
Not sure why you feel the boast your film prowness over 11 year olds but Jeezus! It’s an effing MOVIE.
Is every movie made meant to be seen and appreciate by every demo? Lord I hope not! I enjoyed No Country but that movie is in NO WAY meant for KIDS to see. It’s bad enough these same 11 year olds we are talking about are walking around drinking lattes and punching “play dates” in their blackberrys while wearing sexed up attire. Now you want them giggling in line to buy tickets for Frost/Nixon?
Come the eff off! Pretend you were 11 once – it shouldn’t be that hard to do – as it appears it wasn’t that long ago that you were 11 given your sophomoric position on this film.
We get it – you are broken inside – but I beg of you…dig out that stuffed Unicorn from your closet (be honest you know you have one) and give it a big ol tough girl squeeze. You know you want to. No one will ever know. You can do it…go Punk Girl…hug away!!!!!!!!!!
I don’t think Disney needed to do much marketing and publicity for HSM3. The audience levels are probably higher than The Dark Knight for this demographic and age group. Why waste the extra effort?
Warner congratulates itself on TDK’s marketing campaign, but all they had to do was show a picture of Batman draped in shadows and the movie’s opening date and it would have sold itself. Warner Bros still doesn’t understand the power of Batman, but hopefully it won’t allow it to turn into self-parody as Joel Schumacher did.
Also, Disney should be able to do the marketing and publicity for most of their films in their sleep. Half their films are kid films! They should know the market cold. They’ve conditioned millions of parents to take their kids to see a Disney or Pixar film during school holidays, so what kind of marketing do you have to do? Pick a holiday and buy the advertising time. And Beverly Hills Chihuahua — this comes from a long line of talking animal films. This isn’t exactly brain surgery.
What I hate the most are films that the marketing guys don’t know how to market. The marketing for Fight Club was promoting an entirely different picture than the one released. Zodiac’s marketing gave no indication on how good this film was. I guess David Fincher is a hard director to market because he doesn’t do the standard action film except for Panic Room.
But for HSM3? Disney should be able to market it in their sleep.
I don’t know how much more PR they needed to do.. it seems as though the ads are on every show on tv and even I as someone WAY out of their target demo for this one am interested.. but that’s also because I read a really good review of it.. sometimes something like HSM is exactly the kind of movie people like to see.. fun, bouncy, light, no violence, etc. After suffering through Nights in Rodanthe I feel like Hollywood owes me one.
All I know is my lil’ nieces got these moves down and our choreography improves with each holiday visit. I would think Freestyle will be a good departure for Bleu.
With all the great news in the market, the light, bouncy stuff works. There is nothing wrong with making money in this business. We have enough examples of films no one wants to see.
First off 12 year olds don’t have stock portfolios to be worried about. Second no one under 30’s dates in the old fashioned sense. (meaning what boomers did or do). It been this way since the mid 1980’s. They usually go in large groups of friends. Only bored married couples have date night.
Second Saw V will beat HSM3 on Sat & Sun because its matinees here on out for HSM3. The weekend B.O. counts but profitability matters more. HSM3 cost about $18 mil more to make & promote which means it needs to make $36 mil more just to be even with Saw V.
Third who do you think is going to win Halloween weekend?
Fourth Saw V is the fifth time people have shelled out $ for the franchise, for HSM3 its the first. Saw VI will open with about the same weekend B.O. Because all the leads are leaving HSM4 will be direct to video just like the first three.
Fifth Saw V will clean up the global B.O. Will HSM3 even be released in Asia & Latin America
Gorefests have been around since the early 1970’s and usually been very profitable. It has its ups & downs just like other genres (more ups & fewer downs compared to most genres). Musicals have been dead since Grease 1978(& no Saturday Night Fever & Footlose weren’t musicals) until Chicago 2002. Musicals were suppose to be back then also but three expensive bombs later (Rent, Hairspray & Mamma Mia). Mamma Mia was a hit globally but in NA it was a huge failure.
FWIW, I like both No Country for Old Men and High School Musical. Probably because I realize they are completely different kinds of movies and enjoy them at different levels.
The kids who were at my HSM showing thought the movie was awesome so will probably see it again. I thought it was great too… it has weaknesses no doubt, but on the whole is entertaining (some of the choreography is amazing in fact) and is a great form of escape. Zac Efron does a pretty good job of leading man. His acting has become much more nuanced from the first HSM.
The timing of the release is a little bit odd, but I think they didn’t want to risk the franchise cooling off too much. I wonder if they’d known Harry Potter would move, if they would have put it in November.
In a way, having watched it with some teens, I think it might actually be good timing. Children and tweens will connect to the songs and dismiss plot weaknesses at any release date. High schoolers though will see through the plot but will connect emotionally with Troy’s conflict over his future especially now because that feeling of uncertainty is strong in the fall, when kids are applying to colleges, etc.